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UNI (Uniswap) operates on Ethereum and its own deployments, not Cronos or Cosmos; no Uniswap protocol, governance, oracle, or custodian exposure is indicated. These headlines were routed via generic systemic-risk keywords and have no credible transmission channel to UNI beyond broad market sentiment, which is insufficient for a veto.", "symbol": "UNIUSDT", "decision": "allow", "evidence": [ { "id": "rss-cfbc0d72ebaa13b5", "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2026/08/31/cronos-halts-blockchain-after-usd75-million-lending-exploit-hits-lending-app-tectonic", "title": "Cronos halts blockchain after $75 million lending exploit hits lending app Tectonic", "source": "coindesk", "tokens": [], "age_text": "2h", "age_hours": 2.0, "matched_by": "systemic_keyword", "published_at": "2026-08-31T04:57:13+00:00" }, { "id": "rss-77318b1bae8738d9", "url": "https://cointelegraph.com/news/cronos-network-halt-tectonic-exploit-75-million?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound", "title": "Cronos halts network after Tectonic exploit involving estimated $75M", "source": "cointelegraph", "tokens": [], "age_text": "3h", "age_hours": 3.0, "matched_by": "systemic_keyword", "published_at": "2026-08-31T03:25:48+00:00" }, { "id": "rss-f869426298d24102", "url": "https://www.theblock.co/news/defi/2026-08-30-crypto-com-linked-cronos-network-halts-after-tectonic-exploit-estimated-at-75-million-413069", "title": "Crypto.com-linked Cronos network halts after Tectonic exploit estimated at $75 million", "source": "theblock", "tokens": [], "age_text": "12h", "age_hours": 12.0, "matched_by": "systemic_keyword", "published_at": "2026-08-30T18:40:08+00:00" }, { "id": "rss-28925d02b5745bca", "url": "https://decrypt.co/376863/ai-models-hacked-companies-ai-labs-cyber-defenses", "title": "After Their AI Models Hacked Real Companies, AI Labs Call for Stronger Cyber Defenses", "source": "decrypt", "tokens": [], "age_text": "17h", "age_hours": 17.0, "matched_by": "systemic_keyword", "published_at": "2026-08-30T13:31:04+00:00" }, { "id": "rss-4707d2adaa759e85", "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/web3/2026/08/29/a-usd1-1-million-crypto-card-hack-crashed-a-neobank-s-token-49", "title": "A $1.1 million crypto card hack crashed a neobank's token 49%", "source": "coindesk", "tokens": [ "SOL" ], "age_text": "1d", "age_hours": 24.0, "matched_by": "systemic_keyword", "published_at": "2026-08-29T23:49:17+00:00" }, { "id": "rss-b1b993df2ae0dede", "url": "https://www.theblock.co/news/defi/2026-08-29-cosmos-labs-says-it-wrongly-cleared-the-bug-behind-a-5-7-million-six-chain-hack-413061", "title": "Cosmos Labs says it wrongly cleared the bug behind a $5.7 million six-chain hack", "source": "theblock", "tokens": [ "ATOM" ], "age_text": "1d", "age_hours": 24.0, "matched_by": "systemic_keyword", "published_at": "2026-08-29T20:15:32+00:00" } ], "categories": [ "unknown" ], "confidence": 0.78, "risk_score": 12, "observed_at": "2026-08-31T07:16:42.112526+00:00", "unavailable": false, "corpus_count": 80, "evidence_ids": [ "rss-cfbc0d72ebaa13b5", "rss-77318b1bae8738d9", "rss-f869426298d24102", "rss-b1b993df2ae0dede", "rss-4707d2adaa759e85", "rss-28925d02b5745bca" ], "evidence_hash": "a1b379619da0dcd00b85cbef87c9d0d5a5146a7e93b492755525f4adeec1747a", "evidence_count": 6, "freshness_hours": 2.0, "agent_routed_count": 0 }, "carry": { "score": 0.09147231289521994, "skill": "carry", "action": "carry", "symbol": "UNIUSDT", "vetoes": [], "factors": { "funding_mean": 6.201911111111112e-05, "risk_buffer_bps": 7.633424563387664, "basis_change_vol": 0.00033653228051818156, "funding_edge_bps": 26.04802666666667, "current_basis_pct": -0.09684292078249168, "annual_funding_pct": 6.7910926666666676, "funding_persistence": 0.8814814814814815, "round_trip_cost_bps": 8.0, "basis_convergence_bps": 0.0 }, "reasons": [ "annual funding 6.79%; persistence 88.1%", "carry net EV +10.4 bps over 14d" ], "eligible": true, "metadata": { "perp_price": 5.158, "spot_price": 5.163 }, "confidence": 0.9466666666666668, "data_as_of": "2026-08-31T07:16:32.929320+00:00", "horizon_hours": 336.0, "expected_net_bps": 10.414602103279005 }, "directional": { "score": 0.7708428151679447, "skill": "directional", "action": "long", "symbol": "UNIUSDT", "vetoes": [], "factors": { "adx": 21.61559899583175, "rsi": 61.2342775961926, "flow_z": null, "atr_pct": 0.0051441870736379175, "flow_term": 0.0, "kyle_lambda": null, "momentum_1h": 0.008020344287949843, "trend_1h_atr": 1.5971006761140767, "trend_5m_atr": 1.0749402732015774, "volume_ratio": 1.899959892282129, "vwap_position": 0.009460286917226881, "gross_edge_bps": 49.56699556992005, "taker_imbalance": null, "funding_edge_bps": -0.555675, "round_trip_cost_bps": 16.0 }, "reasons": [ "long structure score +0.771", "1h trend aligned; BTC trending_down", "directional net EV +33.0 bps" ], "eligible": true, "metadata": { "atr": 0.02650799599045619, "frames": { "1h": { "vwap": null, "close": 5.138, "ema_mid": 5.10403725541856, "ema_fast": 5.121950304186184, "ema_slow": 4.9374756252336125 }, "5m": { "vwap": 5.104707997712972, "close": 5.153, "ema_mid": 5.12298192710813, "ema_fast": 5.135531226584079, "ema_slow": 5.107036714132072 } }, "btc_regime": "trending_down", "mark_price": 5.158, "ema_periods": { "mid": 21, "fast": 9, "slow": 50 }, "candle_price": 5.153, "funding_rate": 7.409e-05, "orderflow_enabled": false }, "confidence": 0.8404259443256966, "data_as_of": "2026-08-31T07:10:00+00:00", "horizon_hours": 6.0, "expected_net_bps": 33.01132056992005 }, "performance_carry": { "score": 0.0, "skill": "performance", "action": "allow", "symbol": "UNIUSDT", "vetoes": [], "factors": { "wins": 0.0, "losses": 0.0, "samples": 0.0, "expectancy_usd": 0.0, "minimum_samples": 8.0, "sample_maturity": 0.0, "posterior_win_rate": 0.5, "win_rate_lower_bound": 0.3210613300064863 }, "reasons": [ "shrunk win rate 50.0%; lower bound 32.1%; n=0/8 minimum" ], "eligible": true, "metadata": {}, "confidence": 0.15, "data_as_of": "2026-08-31T07:16:32.929320+00:00", "horizon_hours": 24.0, "expected_net_bps": 0.0 }, "performance_directional": { "score": 0.0, "skill": "performance", "action": "allow", "symbol": "UNIUSDT", "vetoes": [], "factors": { "wins": 0.0, "losses": 0.0, "samples": 0.0, "expectancy_usd": 0.0, "minimum_samples": 8.0, "sample_maturity": 0.0, "posterior_win_rate": 0.5, "win_rate_lower_bound": 0.3210613300064863 }, "reasons": [ "shrunk win rate 50.0%; lower bound 32.1%; n=0/8 minimum" ], "eligible": true, "metadata": {}, "confidence": 0.15, "data_as_of": "2026-08-31T07:16:32.929320+00:00", "horizon_hours": 24.0, "expected_net_bps": 0.0 } }, "captured_at": "2026-08-31T07:16:32.929320+00:00", "chart_setup": { "notes": [], "swing": { "low": { "price": 5.1, "formed_at": "2026-08-31T06:30:00+00:00", "distance_pct": 1.167596078431382 }, "high": { "price": 5.157, "formed_at": "2026-08-31T06:50:00+00:00", "distance_pct": 0.049396936203220644 } }, "atr_pct": 0.0051441870736379175, "support": { "kind": "daily_open", "price": 5.126, "distance_pct": 0.6544557159578577 }, "ema_vwap": { "1h": [ { "name": "EMA9", "value": 5.121950304186184, "relation": "di_atas", "distance_pct": 0.7340386684948526 }, { "name": "EMA21", "value": 5.10403725541856, "relation": "di_atas", "distance_pct": 1.0875732641353526 }, { "name": "EMA50", "value": 4.9374756252336125, "relation": "di_atas", "distance_pct": 4.49767840131627 } ], "5m": [ { "name": "EMA9", "value": 5.135531226584079, "relation": "di_atas", "distance_pct": 0.46764730572762336 }, { "name": "EMA21", "value": 5.12298192710813, "relation": "di_atas", "distance_pct": 0.7137536968144429 }, { "name": "EMA50", "value": 5.107036714132072, "relation": "di_atas", "distance_pct": 1.0282026311387615 }, { "name": "VWAP", "value": 5.104707997712972, "relation": "di_atas", "distance_pct": 1.074290680516835 } ] }, "narrative": "Entry LONG UNIUSDT di 5.15955, di atas EMA9/EMA21/EMA50/VWAP pada frame 5m. Tren 1h naik (+1.60 ATR), searah posisi; rezim BTC trending_down. Level 1h: support terdekat daily_open 5.126 (+0.65%); resistance terdekat fvg_bear_bottom 5.192 (-0.63%). Volatilitas ATR 0.51% dari harga; tanpa pola candle menonjol di bar 5m terakhir.", "resistance": { "kind": "fvg_bear_bottom", "price": 5.192, "distance_pct": -0.6250500770416034 }, "candle_patterns": { "1h": [ "inside_bar" ], "5m": [] } }, "horizon_hours": 6.0, "roi_scenarios": { "usd_tp": { "roa_pct": 5.163794316165908, "rom_pct": 38.599748230656424, "exit_price": 5.23269829096941, "r_multiple": 0.7698558049152234, "net_pnl_usd": 19.251865627 }, "tp_hard": { "roa_pct": 18.011451672450598, "rom_pct": 134.63694664380805, "exit_price": 5.398, "r_multiple": 2.6852774870556235, "net_pnl_usd": 67.15101843999986 }, "fee_note": "net = gross(fill exit ber-slippage per sisi) − fee entry − fee exit taker; funding di luar skenario (belum diketahui saat entry); usd_tp ter-cap di ambang dolar → net = ambang − fee entry; usd_tp_mode=trail: sentuh ambang TIDAK menutup — trailing USD di-arm, lantai awal usd_trail_floor = ambang × (1 − giveback) dan naik mengikuti peak uPnL bersih (exit reason usd_trail_stop)", "stop_loss": { "roa_pct": -6.704294240028206, "rom_pct": -50.11510023146598, "exit_price": 5.08, "r_multiple": -0.9995246755640881, "net_pnl_usd": -24.99521939299997 }, "trail_floor": { "roa_pct": 2.569636544869591, "rom_pct": 19.208225115733534, "exit_price": 5.199321100000001, "r_multiple": 0.38310000156222196, "net_pnl_usd": 9.580222302268107 }, "usd_trail_floor": { "roa_pct": 3.5544559539895535, "rom_pct": 26.5698237614595, "exit_price": 5.211992073929298, "r_multiple": 0.5299240019935793, "net_pnl_usd": 13.251865627 } }, "snapshot_kind": "entry_snapshot", "chart_overlays": { "1h": { "ema_mid": [ 4.4454504, 4.4373185, 4.4301078, 4.4253707, 4.4217006, 4.419546, 4.4181328, 4.4259389, 4.4313081, 4.4499164, 4.464924, 4.4827491, 4.4974083, 4.5121893, 4.5245358, 4.5388507, 4.5515915, 4.5604469, 4.5739517, 4.6009561, 4.6285055, 4.6497323, 4.6714839, 4.696349, 4.7136809, 4.724619, 4.7325627, 4.7525116, 4.7846469, 4.825679, 4.8624354, 4.892214, 4.9168309, 4.9588463, 5.0023148, 5.0423771, 5.0689792, 5.0884356, 5.1050324, 5.1183022, 5.119002, 5.1215473, 5.120043, 5.1119481, 5.1052256, 5.0982051, 5.100641, 5.1040373 ], "periods": { "mid": 21, "fast": 9, "slow": 50 }, "ema_fast": [ 4.4102615, 4.3994092, 4.3911274, 4.3885019, 4.3878015, 4.3898412, 4.392673, 4.4149384, 4.4289507, 4.4703606, 4.4992885, 4.5316308, 4.5541046, 4.5752837, 4.5898269, 4.6082616, 4.6224092, 4.6277274, 4.6439819, 4.6893855, 4.7323084, 4.7582467, 4.7843974, 4.8165179, 4.8306143, 4.8312915, 4.8274332, 4.8523465, 4.9030772, 4.9696618, 5.0217294, 5.0553835, 5.0769068, 5.1373255, 5.1972604, 5.2464083, 5.2641266, 5.2679013, 5.268521, 5.2650168, 5.2372135, 5.2191708, 5.1963366, 5.1632693, 5.1382154, 5.1161724, 5.1179379, 5.1219503 ], "ema_slow": [ 4.4666563, 4.4623169, 4.458226, 4.4550799, 4.4523317, 4.450201, 4.4483892, 4.45057, 4.4519202, 4.459139, 4.4652512, 4.4729276, 4.4796364, 4.4867094, 4.4930346, 4.500445, 4.5074471, 4.5129982, 4.5206846, 4.5344224, 4.5489157, 4.5611935, 4.5740486, 4.5885958, 4.6002979, 4.6094627, 4.6174053, 4.6305267, 4.6491727, 4.6721855, 4.6940606, 4.7135092, 4.7311363, 4.7565427, 4.7832273, 4.8091007, 4.8297242, 4.8474998, 4.8641076, 4.8792799, 4.8889552, 4.8990746, 4.9071501, 4.9120069, 4.9169478, 4.9213028, 4.929291, 4.9374756 ] }, "5m": { "vwap": [ 5.1171909, 5.1164406, 5.1155612, 5.1149856, 5.1139746, 5.1133151, 5.1128886, 5.1112725, 5.1104668, 5.1099022, 5.1091769, 5.1077792, 5.1049539, 5.102945, 5.1016906, 5.1008197, 5.0992652, 5.0981473, 5.097644, 5.097385, 5.096707, 5.0961639, 5.0955614, 5.0949114, 5.0946674, 5.0952907, 5.0967264, 5.0978259, 5.099263, 5.1002725, 5.1013116, 5.1016323, 5.1018932, 5.1020738, 5.1022765, 5.1023383, 5.1026117, 5.1028198, 5.1029033, 5.103016, 5.1030841, 5.1031288, 5.1032781, 5.1035184, 5.1037, 5.1038619, 5.1039546, 5.104708 ], "ema_mid": [ 5.0732974, 5.0693613, 5.0660557, 5.0625052, 5.0601865, 5.0594423, 5.0598566, 5.0579606, 5.056146, 5.0524963, 5.0499967, 5.0464515, 5.0414105, 5.0362823, 5.0310748, 5.0264316, 5.0256651, 5.0254228, 5.0239298, 5.0236635, 5.0240577, 5.0258707, 5.0285188, 5.0323807, 5.0376188, 5.0461989, 5.0560899, 5.0653545, 5.0735041, 5.0820946, 5.087086, 5.0910782, 5.094162, 5.0970564, 5.0994149, 5.100559, 5.1035991, 5.1059992, 5.1078174, 5.1082886, 5.1094441, 5.1096765, 5.111615, 5.1151045, 5.1171859, 5.1190781, 5.1199801, 5.1229819 ], "periods": { "mid": 21, "fast": 9, "slow": 50 }, "ema_fast": [ 5.040362, 5.0382896, 5.0372317, 5.0351854, 5.0355483, 5.0388386, 5.0438709, 5.0428967, 5.0419174, 5.0367339, 5.0343871, 5.0297097, 5.0219678, 5.0145742, 5.0074594, 5.0019675, 5.005174, 5.0087392, 5.0087914, 5.0112331, 5.0145865, 5.0204692, 5.0273753, 5.0361003, 5.0468802, 5.0639042, 5.0821233, 5.0972987, 5.1088389, 5.1206711, 5.1239369, 5.1253495, 5.1252796, 5.1254237, 5.124939, 5.1223512, 5.1246809, 5.1257447, 5.1257958, 5.1232366, 5.1227893, 5.1206314, 5.1227052, 5.1281641, 5.1301313, 5.131705, 5.131164, 5.1355312 ], "ema_slow": [ 5.1265358, 5.1227501, 5.1192305, 5.1156136, 5.1125307, 5.110157, 5.1083469, 5.1056274, 5.1029754, 5.0995646, 5.0966405, 5.093282, 5.089271, 5.0851819, 5.0810179, 5.0770564, 5.0747405, 5.0727114, 5.070213, 5.068283, 5.0667033, 5.065813, 5.0653889, 5.065609, 5.0665655, 5.0691316, 5.0724989, 5.0758519, 5.0789558, 5.0824477, 5.084587, 5.0864071, 5.0879206, 5.0894139, 5.090731, 5.0915651, 5.0932292, 5.0946712, 5.0958998, 5.0965704, 5.0975284, 5.0980959, 5.0993863, 5.1013711, 5.1028075, 5.1041876, 5.1051607, 5.1070367 ] } }, "thesis_version": 2, "breakeven_price": 5.166259406286118, "expected_net_bps": 33.01132056992005, "funding_projection": { "note": "estimasi = rate saat entry × notional × settlement dalam max_hold; rate berubah tiap interval, interval riil simbol diinferensi dari history (fallback config)", "direction": "bayar", "est_usd_paid": 0.08314391354335501, "horizon_hours": 6.0, "interval_hours": 8.0, "est_settlements": 0.75, "interval_source": "config_fallback", "funding_rate_at_entry": 7.409e-05 }, "utility_bps_per_day": 19.991878013964346 }, "funding_paid": 0.0, "last_mark_at": "2026-08-31T07:53:33.111302+00:00", "notional_usd": 1496.268746, "trail_peak_r": 0.21939874841917492, "working_type": "MARK_PRICE", "current_price": 5.154, "risk_modifiers": [ "risk_gates_bypassed" ], "unrealized_pnl": -1.6087460000000586, "equity_at_entry": 372.82402141250304, "usd_trail_armed": false, "trail_r_distance": 0.07954740000000005, "usd_peak_net_usd": null, "exit_shadow_state": { "ptp": { "at": null, "open": true, "r_mult": 0.8, "pnl_usd": null, "fraction": 0.75, "part_done": false, "realized_usd": 0.0 }, "tstop": { "at": null, "open": true, "min_r": 0.5, "minutes": 120.0, "pnl_usd": null }, "peak_r": 0.21939874841917492 }, "last_processed_ts": "2026-08-31T07:52:59.999000+00:00", "take_profit_price": 5.398, "utility_bps_per_day": 19.991878013964346, "liquidation_estimate": 3.937879420164752, "return_on_margin_pct": -3.225515478353898, "usd_tp_threshold_usd": 20.0, "usd_tp_trail_giveback": 0.3, "safe_leverage_suggested": 27 }, "DASHUSDT": { "qty": 35.977, "side": "long", "symbol": "DASHUSDT", "leverage": 30, "risk_usd": 25.448295568151853, "strategy": "directional", "trade_id": "079ad11d94d2446883f55eb4fab0cfcc", "entry_fee": 0.749985608204, "llm_judge": { "model": "kimi-k3", "score": 44.0, "reasons": [ "Bukan chasing: harga hanya +0.9% di atas VWAP-5m dan +1.7% di atas EMA50-1h, RSI 61, ADX 28.5, trend_1h_atr 0.47 — lokasi entry dekat basis, tidak ada pola distribusi pasca-pump.", "Namun bahan bakar lemah: volume_ratio 0.55 (turun 36.6% dari 22 menit lalu) dan taker 0.487 di bawah gerbang 0.52 — agresor masih dominan jual, walau membaik dari 0.457.", "Funding +0.01% di persentil 97.5 menandakan sisi long padat (rawan long squeeze), diperberat BTC trending_down; OI masih +0.7% sehingga belum memburuk material.", "Berita eksploit Cronos/Tectonic tidak relevan dengan DASH (chain independen), bukan katalis maupun risiko." ], "verdict": "approve", "key_risk": "Long tanpa 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DASH runs on its own independent PoW chain with no d", "binding": false, "decision": "allow", "risk_score": 12, "unavailable": false } }, { "name": "portfolio_heat", "pass": true, "value": { "cap_usd": 6.0, "risk_usd": 25.448295568151853, "open_risk_after_usd": 25.448295568151853, "open_risk_before_usd": 0.0 } }, { "name": "correlated_side", "pass": true, "value": { "cap": 3, "applies": true, "same_side_alt_count": 0 } } ], "expected": { "horizon_hours": 6.0, "expected_net_bps": 25.95812226460143, "utility_bps_per_day": 14.96022187745365 }, "strategy": "directional", "exit_plan": { "tp_hard_r": 3.0, "stop_price": 41.04, "exit_policy": "trail", "trail_arm_r": 1.0, "usd_tp_mode": "trail", "tp_hard_price": 43.65, "usd_tp_r_mult": 2.0, "usd_tp_abs_usd": 20.0, "trail_arm_price": 42.345008, "daily_guardrails": { "loss_limit_usd": 100.0, "profit_target_usd": 100.0, "profit_floor_fraction": 0.5, "protect_profit_at_usd": 0.0 }, "trail_distance_r": 0.5, "time_stop_minutes": 360.0, "usd_trail_floor_usd": 14.0, "trail_distance_price": 0.3262520000000002, "usd_tp_threshold_usd": 20.0, "usd_tp_trail_giveback": 0.3 }, "risk_plan": { "qty": 35.977, "leverage": 30, "risk_usd": 25.448295568151853, "risk_tier": "fixed_margin", "margin_usd": 49.99904054693333, "notional_usd": 1499.971216408, "entry_fee_usd": 0.749985608204, "stop_distance": { "pct": 1.565039125498436, "price": 0.6525040000000004 }, "risk_modifiers": [ "risk_gates_bypassed" ], "leverage_reason": "safe_leverage: min(cap config 30x, floor(1/(stop_pct×2+0.005))) — estimasi likuidasi >= 2× jarak stop", "est_exit_fee_usd": 0.749985608204, "entry_slippage_usd": 0.4498564079999945, "liquidation_estimate": 31.676999684244592 }, "confidence": 0.8052415177116008, "data_as_of": "2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00", "assessments": { "news": { "model": "kimi-k3", "usage": { "total_tokens": 1693, "prompt_tokens": 1439, "completion_tokens": 254, "prompt_tokens_details": { "cached_tokens": 256 }, "completion_tokens_details": { "reasoning_tokens": 29 } }, "reason": "All material headlines concern the Cronos chain halt and Tectonic lending exploit (~$75M), plus unrelated hacks on other ecosystems (Cosmos, a SOL-tagged neobank token, AI cybersecurity). DASH runs on its own independent PoW chain with no dependency on Cronos, Tectonic, Cosmos, or the named counterparties, and DASH is not mentioned in any item. No credible transmission channel (chain, foundation, bridge, custodian, listing) to DASHUSDT exists; this is background market-wide exploit noise routed here by keyword matching, not a symbol-specific tail risk.", "symbol": "DASHUSDT", "decision": "allow", "evidence": [ { "id": "rss-cfbc0d72ebaa13b5", "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2026/08/31/cronos-halts-blockchain-after-usd75-million-lending-exploit-hits-lending-app-tectonic", "title": "Cronos halts blockchain after $75 million lending exploit hits lending app Tectonic", "source": "coindesk", "tokens": [], "age_text": "1h", "age_hours": 1.0, "matched_by": "systemic_keyword", "published_at": "2026-08-31T04:57:13+00:00" }, { "id": "rss-77318b1bae8738d9", "url": "https://cointelegraph.com/news/cronos-network-halt-tectonic-exploit-75-million?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound", "title": "Cronos halts network after Tectonic exploit involving estimated $75M", "source": "cointelegraph", "tokens": [], "age_text": "2h", "age_hours": 2.0, "matched_by": "systemic_keyword", "published_at": "2026-08-31T03:25:48+00:00" }, { "id": "rss-f869426298d24102", "url": "https://www.theblock.co/news/defi/2026-08-30-crypto-com-linked-cronos-network-halts-after-tectonic-exploit-estimated-at-75-million-413069", "title": "Crypto.com-linked Cronos network halts after Tectonic exploit estimated at $75 million", "source": "theblock", "tokens": [], "age_text": "11h", "age_hours": 11.0, "matched_by": "systemic_keyword", "published_at": "2026-08-30T18:40:08+00:00" }, { "id": "rss-28925d02b5745bca", "url": "https://decrypt.co/376863/ai-models-hacked-companies-ai-labs-cyber-defenses", "title": "After Their AI Models Hacked Real Companies, AI Labs Call for Stronger Cyber Defenses", "source": "decrypt", "tokens": [], "age_text": "16h", "age_hours": 16.0, "matched_by": "systemic_keyword", "published_at": "2026-08-30T13:31:04+00:00" }, { "id": "rss-4707d2adaa759e85", "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/web3/2026/08/29/a-usd1-1-million-crypto-card-hack-crashed-a-neobank-s-token-49", "title": "A $1.1 million crypto card hack crashed a neobank's token 49%", "source": "coindesk", "tokens": [ "SOL" ], "age_text": "1d", "age_hours": 24.0, "matched_by": "systemic_keyword", "published_at": "2026-08-29T23:49:17+00:00" }, { "id": "rss-b1b993df2ae0dede", "url": "https://www.theblock.co/news/defi/2026-08-29-cosmos-labs-says-it-wrongly-cleared-the-bug-behind-a-5-7-million-six-chain-hack-413061", "title": "Cosmos Labs says it wrongly cleared the bug behind a $5.7 million six-chain hack", "source": "theblock", "tokens": [ "ATOM" ], "age_text": "1d", "age_hours": 24.0, "matched_by": "systemic_keyword", "published_at": "2026-08-29T20:15:32+00:00" } ], "categories": [ "unknown" ], "confidence": 0.85, "risk_score": 12, "observed_at": "2026-08-31T06:08:41.382032+00:00", "unavailable": false, "corpus_count": 80, "evidence_ids": [ "rss-cfbc0d72ebaa13b5", "rss-77318b1bae8738d9", "rss-f869426298d24102" ], "evidence_hash": "35d1770afecd674b73b95cc82951979a7192e30798c5ba771e8492d665003b8a", "evidence_count": 6, "freshness_hours": 1.0, "agent_routed_count": 0 }, "carry": { "score": 0.046529904591166994, "skill": "carry", "action": "no_trade", "symbol": "DASHUSDT", "vetoes": [ "carry_quality_gate" ], "factors": { "funding_mean": 6.165222222222223e-05, "risk_buffer_bps": 12.378226368534126, "basis_change_vol": 0.0005457147986439758, "funding_edge_bps": 25.893933333333337, "current_basis_pct": -0.023986567522182867, "annual_funding_pct": 6.750918333333335, "funding_persistence": 0.8444444444444444, "round_trip_cost_bps": 8.0, "basis_convergence_bps": 0.0 }, "reasons": [ "annual funding 6.75%; persistence 84.4%", "carry net EV +5.5 bps over 14d" ], "eligible": false, "metadata": { "perp_price": 41.68, "spot_price": 41.69 }, "confidence": 0.9299999999999999, "data_as_of": "2026-08-31T06:08:32.589245+00:00", "horizon_hours": 336.0, "expected_net_bps": 5.515706964799211 }, "directional": { "score": 0.6567575496031214, "skill": "directional", "action": "long", "symbol": "DASHUSDT", "vetoes": [], "factors": { "adx": 28.506216357471, "rsi": 60.68010453099333, "flow_z": null, "atr_pct": 0.005202299970868695, "flow_term": 0.0, "kyle_lambda": null, "momentum_1h": 0.017010935601458055, "trend_1h_atr": 0.47423309226862875, "trend_5m_atr": 1.4782987017168392, "volume_ratio": 0.5484509203596517, "vwap_position": 0.009299463198146712, "gross_edge_bps": 42.70812226460143, "taker_imbalance": null, "funding_edge_bps": -0.7500000000000001, "round_trip_cost_bps": 16.0 }, "reasons": [ "long structure score +0.657", "1h trend aligned; BTC trending_down", "directional net EV +26.0 bps" ], "eligible": true, "metadata": { "atr": 0.2177162537808549, "frames": { "1h": { "vwap": null, "close": 41.78, "ema_mid": 41.737853367980904, "ema_fast": 41.65519576510099, "ema_slow": 41.15781916832163 }, "5m": { "vwap": 41.46440330740963, "close": 41.85, "ema_mid": 41.56392761223336, "ema_fast": 41.77359722058682, "ema_slow": 41.45174756527993 } }, "btc_regime": "trending_down", "mark_price": 41.68, "ema_periods": { "mid": 21, "fast": 9, "slow": 50 }, "candle_price": 41.85, "funding_rate": 0.0001, "orderflow_enabled": false }, "confidence": 0.8052415177116008, "data_as_of": "2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00", "horizon_hours": 6.0, "expected_net_bps": 25.95812226460143 }, "performance_carry": { "score": 0.0, "skill": "performance", "action": "allow", "symbol": "DASHUSDT", "vetoes": [], "factors": { "wins": 0.0, "losses": 0.0, "samples": 0.0, "expectancy_usd": 0.0, "minimum_samples": 8.0, "sample_maturity": 0.0, "posterior_win_rate": 0.5, "win_rate_lower_bound": 0.3210613300064863 }, "reasons": [ "shrunk win rate 50.0%; lower bound 32.1%; n=0/8 minimum" ], "eligible": true, "metadata": {}, "confidence": 0.15, "data_as_of": "2026-08-31T06:08:32.589245+00:00", "horizon_hours": 24.0, "expected_net_bps": 0.0 }, "performance_directional": { "score": 0.0, "skill": "performance", "action": "allow", "symbol": "DASHUSDT", "vetoes": [], "factors": { "wins": 0.0, "losses": 0.0, "samples": 0.0, "expectancy_usd": 0.0, "minimum_samples": 8.0, "sample_maturity": 0.0, "posterior_win_rate": 0.5, "win_rate_lower_bound": 0.3210613300064863 }, "reasons": [ "shrunk win rate 50.0%; lower bound 32.1%; n=0/8 minimum" ], "eligible": true, "metadata": {}, "confidence": 0.15, "data_as_of": "2026-08-31T06:08:32.589245+00:00", "horizon_hours": 24.0, "expected_net_bps": 0.0 } }, "captured_at": "2026-08-31T06:08:32.589245+00:00", "chart_setup": { "notes": [], "swing": { "low": { "price": 41.67, "formed_at": "2026-08-31T05:35:00+00:00", "distance_pct": 0.05400527957762865 }, "high": { "price": 42.29, "formed_at": "2026-08-31T05:25:00+00:00", "distance_pct": -1.412854102624733 } }, "atr_pct": 0.005202299970868695, "support": { "kind": "fvg_bear_bottom", "price": 41.68, "distance_pct": 0.029999999999999638 }, "ema_vwap": { "1h": [ { "name": "EMA9", "value": 41.65519576510099, "relation": "di_atas", "distance_pct": 0.08956442098938648 }, { "name": "EMA21", "value": 41.737853367980904, "relation": "di_bawah", "distance_pct": -0.10865285183951012 }, { "name": "EMA50", "value": 41.15781916832163, "relation": "di_atas", "distance_pct": 1.2991087537745578 } ], "5m": [ { "name": "EMA9", "value": 41.77359722058682, "relation": "di_bawah", "distance_pct": -0.19412553857549616 }, { "name": "EMA21", "value": 41.56392761223336, "relation": "di_atas", "distance_pct": 0.30934609685153813 }, { "name": "EMA50", "value": 41.45174756527993, "relation": "di_atas", "distance_pct": 0.5808113019623982 }, { "name": "VWAP", "value": 41.46440330740963, "relation": "di_atas", "distance_pct": 0.5501120826441641 } ] }, "narrative": "Entry LONG DASHUSDT di 41.6925, di atas EMA21/EMA50/VWAP dan di bawah EMA9 pada frame 5m. Tren 1h naik (+0.47 ATR), searah posisi; rezim BTC trending_down. Level 1h: support terdekat fvg_bear_bottom 41.68 (+0.03%); resistance terdekat asia_high 41.71 (-0.04%). Volatilitas ATR 0.52% dari harga; pola candle 5m terakhir: morning_star, tweezer_bottom.", "resistance": { "kind": "asia_high", "price": 41.71, "distance_pct": -0.04194677535363531 }, "candle_patterns": { "1h": [], "5m": [ "morning_star", "tweezer_bottom" ] } }, "horizon_hours": 6.0, "roi_scenarios": { "usd_tp": { "roa_pct": 5.168146795932083, "rom_pct": 38.50076757718242, "exit_price": 42.28223416573571, "r_multiple": 0.7564362941417222, "net_pnl_usd": 19.250014391796 }, "tp_hard": { "roa_pct": 18.36872548362783, "rom_pct": 136.84015924061546, "exit_price": 43.65, "r_multiple": 2.6885402411322388, "net_pnl_usd": 68.41876670320346 }, "fee_note": "net = gross(fill exit ber-slippage per sisi) − fee entry − fee exit taker; funding di luar skenario (belum diketahui saat entry); usd_tp ter-cap di ambang dolar → net = ambang − fee entry; usd_tp_mode=trail: sentuh ambang TIDAK menutup — trailing USD di-arm, lantai awal usd_trail_floor = ambang × (1 − giveback) dan naik mengikuti peak uPnL bersih (exit reason usd_trail_stop)", "stop_loss": { "roa_pct": -6.820900921551587, "rom_pct": -50.81316986861728, "exit_price": 41.04, "r_multiple": -0.9983418079121732, "net_pnl_usd": -25.406097405792064 }, "trail_floor": { "roa_pct": 2.625266887577856, "rom_pct": 19.557259934308647, "exit_price": 42.018755999999996, "r_multiple": 0.3842474360704021, "net_pnl_usd": 9.778442324424127 }, "usd_trail_floor": { "roa_pct": 3.5572970508634296, "rom_pct": 26.500537304027695, "exit_price": 42.115327449176995, "r_multiple": 0.5206641189902788, "net_pnl_usd": 13.250014391796 } }, "snapshot_kind": "entry_snapshot", "chart_overlays": { "1h": { "ema_mid": [ 38.520009, 38.514554, 38.500504, 38.505912, 38.542648, 38.592407, 38.694915, 38.867196, 39.167451, 39.407682, 39.66153, 39.87139, 40.063082, 40.176438, 40.291308, 40.349371, 40.435791, 40.510719, 40.568836, 40.648942, 40.712674, 40.768795, 40.75345, 40.777682, 40.802438, 40.811307, 40.807552, 40.793229, 40.845663, 40.897875, 40.927159, 40.960145, 40.986495, 41.028632, 41.187847, 41.289861, 41.551692, 41.740629, 41.829663, 41.988784, 42.148895, 42.108995, 42.086359, 41.963963, 41.853603, 41.796003, 41.733639, 41.737853 ], "periods": { "mid": 21, "fast": 9, "slow": 50 }, "ema_fast": [ 38.584915, 38.559932, 38.519945, 38.527956, 38.604365, 38.701492, 38.905194, 39.242155, 39.827724, 40.224179, 40.619343, 40.889475, 41.10758, 41.148064, 41.206451, 41.151161, 41.180929, 41.196743, 41.187394, 41.239915, 41.261932, 41.275546, 41.140437, 41.116349, 41.10308, 41.062464, 41.003971, 40.933177, 41.020541, 41.100433, 41.124346, 41.157477, 41.175982, 41.230785, 41.540628, 41.694503, 42.189602, 42.477682, 42.526145, 42.736916, 42.939533, 42.693626, 42.526901, 42.169521, 41.885617, 41.752493, 41.623995, 41.655196 ], "ema_slow": [ 38.700317, 38.690893, 38.677917, 38.673293, 38.682575, 38.698553, 38.73861, 38.811213, 38.94293, 39.055364, 39.178683, 39.288147, 39.39371, 39.468858, 39.546158, 39.600426, 39.667076, 39.729544, 39.785248, 39.850532, 39.909335, 39.965047, 39.989948, 40.030342, 40.070328, 40.102864, 40.129027, 40.149457, 40.197321, 40.24527, 40.283494, 40.322965, 40.359319, 40.402091, 40.495343, 40.566506, 40.707819, 40.822414, 40.89683, 41.002052, 41.109815, 41.133351, 41.161847, 41.145304, 41.129802, 41.133339, 41.132424, 41.157819 ] }, "5m": { "vwap": [ 41.615771, 41.602303, 41.587216, 41.571118, 41.561732, 41.549088, 41.536262, 41.530692, 41.524112, 41.486086, 41.468211, 41.458444, 41.45332, 41.448974, 41.444332, 41.438821, 41.435516, 41.42982, 41.427004, 41.423596, 41.421683, 41.420568, 41.419443, 41.415115, 41.412433, 41.408965, 41.404916, 41.387291, 41.383551, 41.374679, 41.368385, 41.365709, 41.364006, 41.360382, 41.359348, 41.356257, 41.354529, 41.355118, 41.361744, 41.387796, 41.420332, 41.442808, 41.449152, 41.454018, 41.456747, 41.458165, 41.461572, 41.464403 ], "ema_mid": [ 41.402841, 41.381674, 41.351522, 41.319565, 41.282332, 41.250302, 41.232092, 41.218266, 41.190242, 41.128402, 41.094001, 41.07091, 41.066282, 41.052984, 41.029076, 41.02916, 41.031055, 41.021868, 41.031698, 41.047907, 41.068098, 41.083725, 41.096114, 41.077376, 41.073978, 41.056344, 41.036676, 41.024251, 41.016592, 40.99872, 41.002473, 41.002248, 40.99568, 41.006982, 41.016347, 41.028497, 41.050452, 41.083138, 41.134671, 41.224246, 41.317497, 41.374088, 41.405535, 41.445031, 41.480938, 41.510852, 41.53532, 41.563928 ], "periods": { "mid": 21, "fast": 9, "slow": 50 }, "ema_fast": [ 41.060359, 41.082287, 41.07583, 41.060664, 41.030531, 41.010425, 41.01834, 41.030672, 41.006537, 40.90723, 40.875784, 40.868627, 40.898902, 40.903121, 40.880497, 40.910398, 40.938318, 40.936655, 40.975324, 41.022259, 41.071807, 41.105446, 41.128357, 41.080685, 41.072548, 41.034039, 40.995231, 40.976185, 40.968948, 40.939158, 40.959327, 40.967461, 40.959969, 40.991975, 41.01558, 41.042464, 41.087971, 41.152377, 41.251902, 41.425521, 41.590417, 41.660334, 41.672267, 41.705814, 41.732651, 41.748121, 41.754497, 41.773597 ], "ema_slow": [ 41.954189, 41.923437, 41.889184, 41.854314, 41.817282, 41.782487, 41.753762, 41.72734, 41.695287, 41.648805, 41.613558, 41.583223, 41.561135, 41.535993, 41.506738, 41.488043, 41.470864, 41.449654, 41.437119, 41.428212, 41.422008, 41.41487, 41.407228, 41.386945, 41.373339, 41.353992, 41.333836, 41.316823, 41.302045, 41.283142, 41.273607, 41.262877, 41.249823, 41.244732, 41.239448, 41.23594, 41.237276, 41.24405, 41.259969, 41.293696, 41.331198, 41.355073, 41.369384, 41.387839, 41.405571, 41.421431, 41.435492, 41.451748 ] } }, "thesis_version": 2, "breakeven_price": 41.74674138309526, "expected_net_bps": 25.95812226460143, "funding_projection": { "note": "estimasi = rate saat entry × notional × settlement dalam max_hold; rate berubah tiap interval, interval riil simbol diinferensi dari history (fallback config)", "direction": "bayar", "est_usd_paid": 0.1124978412306, "horizon_hours": 6.0, "interval_hours": 8.0, "est_settlements": 0.75, "interval_source": "config_fallback", "funding_rate_at_entry": 0.0001 }, "utility_bps_per_day": 14.96022187745365 }, "funding_paid": 0.0, "last_mark_at": "2026-08-31T07:53:33.111302+00:00", "notional_usd": 1499.971216408, "trail_peak_r": 0.6551622672044886, "working_type": "MARK_PRICE", "current_price": 41.96560716, "risk_modifiers": [ "risk_gates_bypassed" ], "unrealized_pnl": 9.825432387319928, "equity_at_entry": 372.4742185525369, "usd_trail_armed": false, "trail_r_distance": 0.6525040000000004, "usd_peak_net_usd": null, "exit_shadow_state": { "ptp": { "at": null, "open": true, "r_mult": 0.8, "pnl_usd": null, "fraction": 0.75, "part_done": false, "realized_usd": 0.0 }, "tstop": { "at": null, "open": true, "min_r": 0.5, "minutes": 120.0, "pnl_usd": null }, "peak_r": 0.6551622672044886 }, "last_processed_ts": "2026-08-31T07:52:59.999000+00:00", "take_profit_price": 43.65, "utility_bps_per_day": 14.96022187745365, "liquidation_estimate": 32.162817373407954, "return_on_margin_pct": 19.651241863525254, "usd_tp_threshold_usd": 20.0, "usd_tp_trail_giveback": 0.3, "safe_leverage_suggested": 27 } }, "diagnostics": { "tp_touched_last_only": [] }, "realized_pnl": -127.52578144746286, "closed_trades": [ { "qty": 327760.0, "side": "short", "event": "meta_close", "shadow": { "bars": 360, "last": { "at": "2026-08-29T03:43:59.999000+00:00", "price": 0.004615, "net_usd": -14.576899704007618 }, "complete": true, "max_adverse": { "at": "2026-08-29T00:25:00+00:00", "price": 0.004725, "net_usd": -50.65934799204756, "rom_pct": -101.31897866300807 }, "max_favorable": { "at": "2026-08-28T21:47:00+00:00", "price": 0.00442701, "net_usd": 47.08800442025261, "rom_pct": 94.17627159133859 }, "vs_actual_usd": 28.814886083460472, "follow_minutes": 360, "checked_through": "2026-08-29T03:43:59.999000+00:00" }, "source": "live", "symbol": "PUMPUSDT", "net_pnl": 18.273118336792137, "exit_fee": 0.7401162912399102, "leverage": 30, "risk_usd": 28.631907421584177, "strategy": "directional", "trade_id": "cc1fbebe37394ddfa80ad304e61d15be", "closed_at": "2026-08-28T21:44:43.138085+00:00", "entry_fee": 0.74999790750768, "gross_pnl": 19.76323253553973, "llm_judge": { "model": "claude-opus-5", "score": 56.0, "reasons": [ "Struktur searah: harga di bawah semua EMA 1h, BTC trending_down, funding positif p97.5 (long ramai bayar shorts)", "Bahan bakar membaik vs penilaian lalu: volume_ratio 0.44 -> 1.32, OI 1h +0.65%, taker tidak bergeser (memburuk=false)", "Cacat: taker buy-ratio 0.532 melawan short dan volume naik 3x tanpa harga turun = indikasi absorpsi/basis pantulan", "Tren lemah (ADX 22.9, trend_1h -0.56 ATR) dan harga 2.6% di bawah VWAP 5m, entry di sini bukan yang terbaik" ], "verdict": "approve", "key_risk": "Pantulan mean-reversion ke arah VWAP/EMA 1h karena agresor net beli dan tren 1h masih lemah, membuat short di bawah VWAP kena squeeze", "better_entry": 0.0046354966023863095, "perubahan_material": { "alasan": [], "memburuk": false, "oi_1h_pct": { "dulu": 0.54, "kini": 0.65 }, "volume_ratio": { "dulu": 0.44, "kini": 1.32, "perubahan_pct": 203.4 }, "taker_ratio_4h": { "dulu": 0.532, "kini": 0.532 }, "harga_berubah_pct": -0.33 }, "better_entry_anchor": "ema_slow_5m" }, "opened_at": "2026-08-28T21:24:28.630961+00:00", "risk_tier": "fixed_margin", "tick_size": 1e-06, "confidence": 0.6797084998817564, "exit_price": 0.004516208757871065, "margin_usd": 49.999860500512, "paper_only": true, "stop_price": 0.004531, "entry_price": 0.004576506636, "exit_policy": "trail", "exit_shadow": { "ptp_mode": "partial_lalu_breakeven", "ptp_pnl_usd": 14.0888, "real_net_usd": 18.2731, "tstop_pnl_usd": 18.2731, "tstop_triggered": false }, "sizing_mode": "fixed_margin", "trail_armed": true, "usd_tp_mode": "trail", "close_reason": "usd_trail_stop", "entry_thesis": { "setup": { "side": "short", "score": -0.46931844930150163, "strategy": "directional", "btc_regime": "trending_down", "confidence": 0.6797084998817564, "score_note": "komponen skor ChartSkill yang sudah dihitung saat entry; mom_z tidak tersedia di jalur meta (null)", "gross_edge_bps": 34.65939283621898, "confidence_tier": "fixed_margin", "score_breakdown": { "adx": 22.89583819148264, "rsi": 43.42108947596417, "mom_z": null, "atr_pct": 0.005908038414053983, "momentum_1h": 0.004153913423699196, "trend_1h_atr": -0.5554898246602237, "trend_5m_atr": -1.492538952208492, "volume_ratio": 1.320461708361002, "vwap_position": -0.026274261895209653 }, "funding_edge_bps": 0.209025, "round_trip_cost_bps": 16.0 }, "action": "short", "levels": { "stop": 0.004658, "entry": 0.004576506636, "take_profit": 0.004332, "mark_at_entry": 0.00457788 }, "reason": "selected short utility=9.40 bps/day (news x0.95); vol_target scale 0.91", "symbol": "PUMPUSDT", "vetoes": [], "filters": [ { "name": "session_window", "pass": true, "value": { "hour_utc": 21, "window_utc": null } }, { "name": "btc_gate", "pass": true, "value": { "applies": true, "btc_return_7d": -0.0013293753226638616 } }, { "name": "funding_extreme", "pass": true, "value": { "notes": null, "pctile": 97.5, "pctile_hi": 0.00027043599999999993, "pctile_lo": -0.00034544199999999995, "funding_rate": 2.787e-05 } }, { "name": "vol_target", "pass": true, "value": { "vol_scale": 0.9071708329024813, "realized_vol_daily_pct": 2.2046564191234257 } }, { "name": "taker_flow_gate", "pass": true, "value": { "min_ratio": 0.52, "taker_ratio_4h": 0.5322208340671002 } }, { "name": "freshness_gate", "pass": true, "value": { "atr_1h": 0.00013085714285714277, "dist_low_atr": -0.7106986899563339, "made_new_low": false, "dist_high_atr": -2.667030567685594, "made_new_high": false, "max_atr_above": 1.0 } }, { "name": "exhaustion", "pass": true, "value": { "notes": null, "enabled": true, "max_pct": 40.0, "move_24h_pct": -6.854593388764951 } }, { "name": "overextended", "pass": true, "value": { "price": 0.004593, "enabled": true, "max_pct": 40.0, "ema50_1h": 0.004748702881564435, "ema_source": "chart_skill_1h", "dist_ema50_pct": -3.2788507819453083 } }, { "name": "atr_band", "pass": true, "value": { "enabled": true, "dead_pct": 1.2, "atr_pct_1h": 2.7835823533104165, "extreme_pct": 15.0 } }, { "name": "oi_crowd", "pass": true, "value": { "note": null, "enabled": true, "max_pct": 8.0, "oi_change_1h_pct": 0.6547093907506518 } }, { "name": "crowd_positioning", "pass": true, "value": { "note": null, "side": "short", "enabled": false, "ls_ratio": null, "threshold": 1.5, "delta_block": 0.3, "ls_delta_1h": null } }, { "name": "stop_truncated", "pass": true, "value": { "atr_pct": 0.005908038414053983, "cap_pct": 0.02, "enabled": true, "ratio_3atr_vs_cap": 0.8862057621080974 } }, { "name": "plateau", "pass": true, "value": { "count": 0, "enabled": false, "conditions": null, "min_conditions": null } }, { "name": "universe", "pass": true, "value": { "rank": 14, "size": 48, "quote_volume_24h": 261357794.689702 } }, { "name": "regime", "pass": true, "value": { "note": null, "btc_regime": "trending_down", "choppy_no_trade": false } }, { "name": "symbol_recent_loss", "pass": true, "value": { "enabled": true, "block_hours": 24.0, "block_until": null, "manual_exempt": null } }, { "name": "news", "pass": true, "value": { "reason": "No transmission channel to PUMP (Pump.fun, Solana launchpad token) in any item. The Sandbox $700K bridge exploit hits SAND's own bridge/Polygon-Ethereum path with 1:1 repayment pledged, and touches no Solana, Pump.fun, or shared-custodian/v", "binding": false, "decision": "allow", "risk_score": 10, "unavailable": false } }, { "name": "portfolio_heat", "pass": true, "value": { "cap_usd": 6.0, "risk_usd": 28.631907421584177, "open_risk_after_usd": 28.631907421584177, "open_risk_before_usd": 0.0 } }, { "name": "correlated_side", "pass": true, "value": { "cap": 3, "applies": true, "same_side_alt_count": 0 } } ], "expected": { "horizon_hours": 6.0, "expected_net_bps": 18.868417836218974, "utility_bps_per_day": 9.402666332842145 }, "strategy": "directional", "exit_plan": { "tp_hard_r": 3.0, "stop_price": 0.004658, "exit_policy": "trail", "trail_arm_r": 1.0, "usd_tp_mode": "trail", "tp_hard_price": 0.004332, "usd_tp_r_mult": 2.0, "usd_tp_abs_usd": 20.0, "trail_arm_price": 0.004495013272000001, "daily_guardrails": { "loss_limit_usd": 100.0, "profit_target_usd": 100.0, "profit_floor_fraction": 0.5, "protect_profit_at_usd": 0.0 }, "trail_distance_r": 0.5, "time_stop_minutes": 360.0, "usd_trail_floor_usd": 14.0, "trail_distance_price": 4.07466819999998e-05, "usd_tp_threshold_usd": 20.0, "usd_tp_trail_giveback": 0.3 }, "risk_plan": { "qty": 327760.0, "leverage": 30, "risk_usd": 28.631907421584177, "risk_tier": "fixed_margin", "margin_usd": 49.999860500512, "notional_usd": 1499.99581501536, "entry_fee_usd": 0.74999790750768, "stop_distance": { "pct": 1.7806893004142386, "price": 8.14933639999996e-05 }, "risk_modifiers": [ "risk_gates_bypassed" ], "leverage_reason": "safe_leverage: min(cap config 30x, floor(1/(stop_pct×2+0.005))) — estimasi likuidasi >= 2× jarak stop", "est_exit_fee_usd": 0.74999790750768, "entry_slippage_usd": 0.45013378464003473, "liquidation_estimate": 0.006039331535474679 }, "confidence": 0.6797084998817564, "data_as_of": "2026-08-28T21:15:00+00:00", "assessments": { "news": { "model": "claude-opus-5", "usage": { "metering": { "unit": "credit", "usage": 0.314970243946932, "unitPlural": "credits" }, "context_usage_pct": 0.9160000085830688 }, "reason": "No transmission channel to PUMP (Pump.fun, Solana launchpad token) in any item. The Sandbox $700K bridge exploit hits SAND's own bridge/Polygon-Ethereum path with 1:1 repayment pledged, and touches no Solana, Pump.fun, or shared-custodian/venue link to PUMP. The Kalshi suit is a US prediction-market regulatory fight with no PUMP, Solana, or issuer nexus (the SUI tag looks like a bad inference). The Ledger item is an explicit denial of a hack on a patched Ethereum app, i.e. a non-event, and Ledger is not a PUMP custody or settlement dependency. All three appear to be systemic_keyword false positives routed here; scored low. No hack, delisting, depeg, insolvency, chain halt, or withdrawal freeze touching PUMP or Solana infrastructure is present, so no veto basis. Caveat: headline-level RSS o", "symbol": "PUMPUSDT", "decision": "allow", "evidence": [ { "id": "rss-c9a9253dbc95eb4a", "url": "https://cointelegraph.com/news/the-sandbox-compensation-sand-bridge-exploit?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound", "title": "The Sandbox pledges 1:1 repayment after $700K bridge exploit", "source": "cointelegraph", "tokens": [], "age_text": "15h", "age_hours": 15.0, "matched_by": "systemic_keyword", "published_at": "2026-08-28T05:40:48+00:00" }, { "id": "rss-dce9a2ba9164478b", "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/news-analysis/2026/08/27/connecticut-s-new-lawsuit-against-kalshi-piles-on-to-prediction-market-legal-fight", "title": "Connecticut's new lawsuit against Kalshi piles on to prediction market legal fight", "source": "coindesk", "tokens": [ "SUI" ], "age_text": "1d", "age_hours": 24.0, "matched_by": "systemic_keyword", "published_at": "2026-08-27T18:28:53+00:00" }, { "id": "rss-68aa705bc6aa47e8", "url": "https://decrypt.co/376750/no-ledger-wasnt-hacked-ethereum-app-exploit", "title": "No, Ledger Wasn’t Hacked: Vulnerable Ethereum App Was Patched Before Exploit, Company Says", "source": "decrypt", "tokens": [ "ETH" ], "age_text": "1d", "age_hours": 24.0, "matched_by": "systemic_keyword", "published_at": "2026-08-27T18:16:03+00:00" } ], "categories": [ "unknown" ], "confidence": 0.72, "risk_score": 10, "observed_at": "2026-08-28T21:24:39.181456+00:00", "unavailable": false, "corpus_count": 80, "evidence_ids": [ "rss-c9a9253dbc95eb4a", "rss-dce9a2ba9164478b", "rss-68aa705bc6aa47e8" ], "evidence_hash": "fc58f970fc6c75ef71b973dbdf6f6005787b99b6d39382699ea8975e56eb5589", "evidence_count": 3, "freshness_hours": 15.0, "agent_routed_count": 0 }, "carry": { "score": -0.05484223785280036, "skill": "carry", "action": "no_trade", "symbol": "PUMPUSDT", "vetoes": [ "carry_quality_gate" ], "factors": { "funding_mean": 2.2950555555555554e-05, "risk_buffer_bps": 8.804807558392936, "basis_change_vol": 0.00038817465772330776, "funding_edge_bps": 9.639233333333333, "current_basis_pct": -0.0244594889713734, "annual_funding_pct": 2.5130858333333332, "funding_persistence": 0.7666666666666667, "round_trip_cost_bps": 8.0, "basis_convergence_bps": 0.0 }, "reasons": [ "annual funding 2.51%; persistence 76.7%", "carry net EV -7.2 bps over 14d" ], "eligible": false, "metadata": { "perp_price": 0.00457788, "spot_price": 0.004579 }, "confidence": 0.895, "data_as_of": "2026-08-28T21:24:28.630961+00:00", "horizon_hours": 336.0, "expected_net_bps": -7.165574225059602 }, "directional": { "score": -0.46931844930150163, "skill": "directional", "action": "short", "symbol": "PUMPUSDT", "vetoes": [], "factors": { "adx": 22.89583819148264, "rsi": 43.42108947596417, "flow_z": null, "atr_pct": 0.005908038414053983, "flow_term": 0.0, "kyle_lambda": null, "momentum_1h": 0.004153913423699196, "trend_1h_atr": -0.5554898246602237, "trend_5m_atr": -1.492538952208492, "volume_ratio": 1.320461708361002, "vwap_position": -0.026274261895209653, "gross_edge_bps": 34.65939283621898, "taker_imbalance": null, "funding_edge_bps": 0.209025, "round_trip_cost_bps": 16.0 }, "reasons": [ "short structure score -0.469", "1h trend aligned; BTC trending_down", "directional net EV +18.9 bps" ], "eligible": true, "metadata": { "atr": 2.7135620435749943e-05, "frames": { "1h": { "vwap": null, "close": 0.004593, "ema_mid": 0.004718638252448039, "ema_fast": 0.0046776835422066565, "ema_slow": 0.004748702881564435 }, "5m": { "vwap": 0.004716933958159079, "close": 0.004593, "ema_mid": 0.004605380122521431, "ema_fast": 0.004594995631893608, "ema_slow": 0.0046354966023863095 } }, "btc_regime": "trending_down", "mark_price": 0.00457788, "ema_periods": { "mid": 21, "fast": 9, "slow": 50 }, "candle_price": 0.004593, "funding_rate": 2.787e-05, "orderflow_enabled": false }, "confidence": 0.6797084998817564, "data_as_of": "2026-08-28T21:15:00+00:00", "horizon_hours": 6.0, "expected_net_bps": 18.868417836218974 }, "performance_carry": { "score": 0.0, "skill": "performance", "action": "allow", "symbol": "PUMPUSDT", "vetoes": [], "factors": { "wins": 0.0, "losses": 0.0, "samples": 0.0, "expectancy_usd": 0.0, "minimum_samples": 8.0, "sample_maturity": 0.0, "posterior_win_rate": 0.5, "win_rate_lower_bound": 0.3210613300064863 }, "reasons": [ "shrunk win rate 50.0%; lower bound 32.1%; n=0/8 minimum" ], "eligible": true, "metadata": {}, "confidence": 0.15, "data_as_of": "2026-08-28T21:24:28.630961+00:00", "horizon_hours": 24.0, "expected_net_bps": 0.0 }, "performance_directional": { "score": 0.0, "skill": "performance", "action": "allow", "symbol": "PUMPUSDT", "vetoes": [], "factors": { "wins": 0.0, "losses": 0.0, "samples": 0.0, "expectancy_usd": 0.0, "minimum_samples": 8.0, "sample_maturity": 0.0, "posterior_win_rate": 0.5, "win_rate_lower_bound": 0.3210613300064863 }, "reasons": [ "shrunk win rate 50.0%; lower bound 32.1%; n=0/8 minimum" ], "eligible": true, "metadata": {}, "confidence": 0.15, "data_as_of": "2026-08-28T21:24:28.630961+00:00", "horizon_hours": 24.0, "expected_net_bps": 0.0 } }, "captured_at": "2026-08-28T21:24:28.630961+00:00", "chart_setup": { "notes": [], "swing": { "low": { "price": 0.004551, "formed_at": "2026-08-28T20:30:00+00:00", "distance_pct": 0.5604622280817371 }, "high": { "price": 0.004604, "formed_at": "2026-08-28T20:40:00+00:00", "distance_pct": -0.5971625543005946 } }, "atr_pct": 0.005908038414053983, "support": { "kind": "round_number", "price": 0.0045000000000000005, "distance_pct": 1.7001474666666596 }, "ema_vwap": { "1h": [ { "name": "EMA9", "value": 0.0046776835422066565, "relation": "di_bawah", "distance_pct": -2.1629703098497117 }, { "name": "EMA21", "value": 0.004718638252448039, "relation": "di_bawah", "distance_pct": -3.0121320780269705 }, { "name": "EMA50", "value": 0.004748702881564435, "relation": "di_bawah", "distance_pct": -3.6261743440075036 } ], "5m": [ { "name": "EMA9", "value": 0.004594995631893608, "relation": "di_bawah", "distance_pct": -0.40237243677179163 }, { "name": "EMA21", "value": 0.004605380122521431, "relation": "di_bawah", "distance_pct": -0.6269512125662079 }, { "name": "EMA50", "value": 0.0046354966023863095, "relation": "di_bawah", "distance_pct": -1.2725705883581446 }, { "name": "VWAP", "value": 0.004716933958159079, "relation": "di_bawah", "distance_pct": -2.977089003253398 } ] }, "narrative": "Entry SHORT PUMPUSDT di 0.00457651, di bawah EMA9/EMA21/EMA50/VWAP pada frame 5m. Tren 1h turun (-0.56 ATR), searah posisi; rezim BTC trending_down. Level 1h: support terdekat round_number 0.0045 (+1.70%); resistance terdekat london_low 0.004602 (-0.55%). Volatilitas ATR 0.59% dari harga; pola candle 5m terakhir: outside_bar.", "resistance": { "kind": "london_low", "price": 0.004602, "distance_pct": -0.5539627118644063 }, "candle_patterns": { "1h": [], "5m": [ "outside_bar" ] } }, "horizon_hours": 6.0, "roi_scenarios": { "usd_tp": { "roa_pct": 3.8500004184984644, "rom_pct": 38.500111599901764, "exit_price": 0.004511876199533048, "r_multiple": 0.6723269186732804, "net_pnl_usd": 19.25000209249232 }, "tp_hard": { "roa_pct": 15.650679814680887, "rom_pct": 156.50723480039133, "exit_price": 0.004332, "r_multiple": 2.7330836860143335, "net_pnl_usd": 78.25339907340444 }, "fee_note": "net = gross(fill exit ber-slippage per sisi) − fee entry − fee exit taker; funding di luar skenario (belum diketahui saat entry); usd_tp ter-cap di ambang dolar → net = ambang − fee entry; usd_tp_mode=trail: sentuh ambang TIDAK menutup — trailing USD di-arm, lantai awal usd_trail_floor = ambang × (1 − giveback) dan naik mengikuti peak uPnL bersih (exit reason usd_trail_stop)", "stop_loss": { "roa_pct": -5.736371352411875, "rom_pct": -57.3638735687386, "exit_price": 0.004658, "r_multiple": -1.0017445341569364, "net_pnl_usd": -28.681856762059375 }, "trail_floor": { "roa_pct": 2.28311980853828, "rom_pct": 22.83126178436939, "exit_price": 0.004535759954000001, "r_multiple": 0.3987020101247514, "net_pnl_usd": 11.415599042691401 }, "usd_trail_floor": { "roa_pct": 2.650000418498464, "rom_pct": 26.500078119931235, "exit_price": 0.0045301676412537245, "r_multiple": 0.46277049926837216, "net_pnl_usd": 13.25000209249232 } }, "snapshot_kind": "entry_snapshot", "thesis_version": 2, "breakeven_price": 0.004570561248099334, "expected_net_bps": 18.868417836218974, "funding_projection": { "note": "estimasi = rate saat entry × notional × settlement dalam max_hold; rate berubah tiap interval, interval riil simbol diinferensi dari history (fallback config)", "direction": "terima", "est_usd_paid": -0.03135366252335856, "horizon_hours": 6.0, "interval_hours": 8.0, "est_settlements": 0.75, "interval_source": "config_fallback", "funding_rate_at_entry": 2.787e-05 }, "utility_bps_per_day": 9.402666332842145 }, "funding_paid": 0.0, "last_mark_at": "2026-08-28T21:44:43.138085+00:00", "notional_usd": 1499.99581501536, "trail_peak_r": 1.0615175488399347, "working_type": "MARK_PRICE", "ambiguous_bar": false, "current_price": 0.004517, "price_move_pct": 1.317552511660669, "risk_modifiers": [ "risk_gates_bypassed" ], "unrealized_pnl": 19.50389501536001, "equity_at_entry": 500.0, "exit_mark_price": 0.004514854301580591, "usd_trail_armed": true, "barrier_evidence": { "series": "mark", "trigger": "usd_trail_stop", "last_low": 0.004506, "mark_low": 0.00450623, "last_high": 0.004515, "mark_high": 0.00451495, "fill_price": 0.004514854301580591, "bar_open_ms": 1787953380000, "both_touched": false }, "trail_r_distance": 8.14933639999996e-05, "usd_peak_net_usd": 27.175880349000167, "exit_shadow_state": { "ptp": { "at": "2026-08-28T21:40:59.999000+00:00", "open": false, "r_mult": 0.8, "reason": "breakeven_stop", "pnl_usd": 14.838760670515757, "fraction": 0.75, "part_done": true, "realized_usd": 15.138816083361885 }, "tstop": { "at": null, "open": true, "min_r": 0.5, "minutes": 120.0, "pnl_usd": null }, "peak_r": 1.0615175488399347 }, "last_processed_ts": "2026-08-28T21:43:59.999000+00:00", "take_profit_price": 0.004332, "r_multiple_realized": 0.6382082083367222, "utility_bps_per_day": 9.402666332842145, "liquidation_estimate": 0.006002787248131398, "return_on_margin_pct": 36.54633863749484, "usd_tp_threshold_usd": 20.0, "return_on_account_pct": 3.6546236673584276, "usd_tp_trail_giveback": 0.3, "safe_leverage_suggested": 24 }, { "qty": 410284.0, "side": "short", "event": "meta_close", "shadow": { "bars": 361, "last": { "at": "2026-08-29T04:45:59.999000+00:00", "price": 0.00364773, "net_usd": 1.4467177592783447 }, "complete": true, "max_adverse": { "at": "2026-08-29T00:10:00+00:00", "price": 0.00370633, "net_usd": -22.61516236103794, "rom_pct": -45.23034035624214 }, "max_favorable": { "at": "2026-08-29T03:57:00+00:00", "price": 0.00362379, "net_usd": 11.276775951776187, "rom_pct": 22.553559699339438 }, "vs_actual_usd": 26.570721204533648, "follow_minutes": 360, "checked_through": "2026-08-29T04:45:59.999000+00:00" }, "source": "live", "symbol": "1000PEPEUSDT", "net_pnl": -15.293945252757458, "exit_fee": 0.7568932668801001, "leverage": 30, "risk_usd": 15.269366304035444, "strategy": "directional", "trade_id": "60d8692adac546acbb11250355283532", "closed_at": "2026-08-28T22:45:57.316169+00:00", "entry_fee": 0.7499997407575401, "gross_pnl": -13.787052245119819, "llm_judge": { "model": "claude-opus-5", "score": 45.0, "reasons": [ "Tren searah 5m/1h + ADX 28 + BTC trending_down, funding p97.5 bayar ke short", "Entry telat moderat: -2.95% di bawah VWAP 5m dan -4.05% di bawah EMA50-1h setelah -6% 24h", "Bahan bakar belum terkonfirmasi: OI 1h flat -0.13%, taker 0.483 di bawah gate 0.52", "Sejak penilaian lalu hanya volume naik 0.90 -> 1.42; OI dan taker tak berubah, tak cukup untuk naikkan kualitas entry" ], "verdict": "approve", "key_risk": "Pantulan/short-squeeze kembali ke VWAP 5m karena long padat namun tak ada penambahan OI short untuk melanjutkan kaki turun", "better_entry": 0.003713428038503618, "perubahan_material": { "alasan": [], "memburuk": false, "oi_1h_pct": { "dulu": -0.13, "kini": -0.13 }, "volume_ratio": { "dulu": 0.9, "kini": 1.42, "perubahan_pct": 57.4 }, "taker_ratio_4h": { "dulu": 0.483, "kini": 0.483 }, "harga_berubah_pct": -0.13 }, "better_entry_anchor": "ema_fast_1h" }, "opened_at": "2026-08-28T21:45:47.153084+00:00", "risk_tier": "fixed_margin", "tick_size": 1e-07, "confidence": 0.8775705705150314, "exit_price": 0.0036896065499999998, "margin_usd": 49.99998271716934, "paper_only": true, "stop_price": 0.0036885, "entry_price": 0.00365600287, "exit_policy": "trail", "exit_shadow": { "ptp_mode": "tanpa_partial", "ptp_pnl_usd": -15.2939, "real_net_usd": -15.2939, "tstop_pnl_usd": -15.2939, "tstop_triggered": false }, "sizing_mode": "fixed_margin", "trail_armed": false, "usd_tp_mode": "trail", "close_reason": "stop_loss", "entry_thesis": { "setup": { "side": "short", "score": -0.7888741326942109, "strategy": "directional", "btc_regime": "trending_down", "confidence": 0.8775705705150314, "score_note": "komponen skor ChartSkill yang sudah dihitung saat entry; mom_z tidak tersedia di jalur meta (null)", "gross_edge_bps": 29.14871910560038, "confidence_tier": "fixed_margin", "score_breakdown": { "adx": 28.422449383303842, "rsi": 43.30786832695756, "mom_z": null, "atr_pct": 0.0029559817362549232, "momentum_1h": -0.0026155187445509043, "trend_1h_atr": -1.748451254135477, "trend_5m_atr": -1.0869806602830008, "volume_ratio": 1.4220893508246246, "vwap_position": -0.029520152379802888 }, "funding_edge_bps": 0.7500000000000001, "round_trip_cost_bps": 16.0 }, "action": "short", "levels": { "stop": 0.0036885, "entry": 0.00365600287, "take_profit": 0.0035586, "mark_at_entry": 0.0036571 }, "reason": "selected short utility=9.00 bps/day (news x0.95); vol_target scale 0.91", "symbol": "1000PEPEUSDT", "vetoes": [], "filters": [ { "name": "session_window", "pass": true, "value": { "hour_utc": 21, "window_utc": null } }, { "name": "btc_gate", "pass": true, "value": { "applies": true, "btc_return_7d": -0.0013293753226638616 } }, { "name": "funding_extreme", "pass": true, "value": { "notes": null, "pctile": 97.5, "pctile_hi": 0.0002983709999999998, "pctile_lo": -0.000342132, "funding_rate": 0.0001 } }, { "name": "vol_target", "pass": true, "value": { "vol_scale": 0.9071708329024813, "realized_vol_daily_pct": 2.2046564191234257 } }, { "name": "taker_flow_gate", "pass": true, "value": { "min_ratio": 0.52, "taker_ratio_4h": 0.48265334020129197 } }, { "name": "freshness_gate", "pass": true, "value": { "atr_1h": 5.772142857142863e-05, "dist_low_atr": -0.9632471228808277, "made_new_low": false, "dist_high_atr": -5.233758198242779, "made_new_high": false, "max_atr_above": 1.0 } }, { "name": "exhaustion", "pass": true, "value": { "notes": null, "enabled": true, "max_pct": 40.0, "move_24h_pct": -6.072169436832542 } }, { "name": "overextended", "pass": true, "value": { "price": 0.0036608, "enabled": true, "max_pct": 40.0, "ema50_1h": 0.0038153991096342823, "ema_source": "chart_skill_1h", "dist_ema50_pct": -4.051977399792939 } }, { "name": "atr_band", "pass": true, "value": { "enabled": true, "dead_pct": 1.2, "atr_pct_1h": 1.590162429681592, "extreme_pct": 15.0 } }, { "name": "oi_crowd", "pass": true, "value": { "note": null, "enabled": true, "max_pct": 8.0, "oi_change_1h_pct": -0.1336235365949734 } }, { "name": "crowd_positioning", "pass": true, "value": { "note": null, "side": "short", "enabled": false, "ls_ratio": null, "threshold": 1.5, "delta_block": 0.3, "ls_delta_1h": null } }, { "name": "stop_truncated", "pass": true, "value": { "atr_pct": 0.0029559817362549232, "cap_pct": 0.02, "enabled": true, "ratio_3atr_vs_cap": 0.44339726043823846 } }, { "name": "plateau", "pass": true, "value": { "count": 0, "enabled": false, "conditions": null, "min_conditions": null } }, { "name": "universe", "pass": true, "value": { "rank": 15, "size": 48, "quote_volume_24h": 254106030.7857118 } }, { "name": "regime", "pass": true, "value": { "note": null, "btc_regime": "trending_down", "choppy_no_trade": false } }, { "name": "symbol_recent_loss", "pass": true, "value": { "enabled": true, "block_hours": 24.0, "block_until": null, "manual_exempt": null } }, { "name": "news", "pass": true, "value": { "reason": "No fresh evidence transmits to PEPE (1000PEPEUSDT), an ERC-20 memecoin with no foundation, bridge, or chain-specific dependency in this set. The Sandbox $700K bridge exploit is contained to SAND's own bridge with 1:1 repayment pledged and s", "binding": false, "decision": "allow", "risk_score": 8, "unavailable": false } }, { "name": "portfolio_heat", "pass": true, "value": { "cap_usd": 6.0, "risk_usd": 15.269366304035444, "open_risk_after_usd": 31.476499047608424, "open_risk_before_usd": 16.20713274357298 } }, { "name": "correlated_side", "pass": true, "value": { "cap": 3, "applies": true, "same_side_alt_count": 1 } } ], "expected": { "horizon_hours": 6.0, "expected_net_bps": 13.898719105600382, "utility_bps_per_day": 9.004697092254819 }, "strategy": "directional", "exit_plan": { "tp_hard_r": 3.0, "stop_price": 0.0036885, "exit_policy": "trail", "trail_arm_r": 1.0, "usd_tp_mode": "trail", "tp_hard_price": 0.0035586, "usd_tp_r_mult": 2.0, "usd_tp_abs_usd": 20.0, "trail_arm_price": 0.0036235057400000005, "daily_guardrails": { "loss_limit_usd": 100.0, "profit_target_usd": 100.0, "profit_floor_fraction": 0.5, "protect_profit_at_usd": 0.0 }, "trail_distance_r": 0.5, "time_stop_minutes": 360.0, "usd_trail_floor_usd": 14.0, "trail_distance_price": 1.6248564999999868e-05, "usd_tp_threshold_usd": 20.0, "usd_tp_trail_giveback": 0.3 }, "risk_plan": { "qty": 410284.0, "leverage": 30, "risk_usd": 15.269366304035444, "risk_tier": "fixed_margin", "margin_usd": 49.99998271716934, "notional_usd": 1499.99948151508, "entry_fee_usd": 0.7499997407575401, "stop_distance": { "pct": 0.8888704729052834, "price": 3.2497129999999735e-05 }, "risk_modifiers": [ "risk_gates_bypassed" ], "leverage_reason": "safe_leverage: min(cap config 30x, floor(1/(stop_pct×2+0.005))) — estimasi likuidasi >= 2× jarak stop", "est_exit_fee_usd": 0.7499997407575401, "entry_slippage_usd": 0.4501348849198897, "liquidation_estimate": 0.004842968634417263 }, "confidence": 0.8775705705150314, "data_as_of": "2026-08-28T21:40:00+00:00", "assessments": { "news": { "model": "claude-opus-5", "usage": { "metering": { "unit": "credit", "usage": 0.35265793499170817, "unitPlural": "credits" }, "context_usage_pct": 0.9317000508308411 }, "reason": "No fresh evidence transmits to PEPE (1000PEPEUSDT), an ERC-20 memecoin with no foundation, bridge, or chain-specific dependency in this set. The Sandbox $700K bridge exploit is contained to SAND's own bridge with 1:1 repayment pledged and shares no contract, bridge, or custodian with PEPE. The Connecticut/Kalshi prediction-market suit targets an unrelated venue and has no PEPE listing, market-maker, or counterparty channel. The Ledger item is the only plausible channel, since PEPE settles on Ethereum and Ledger is a common custody path, but it is an explicit denial: the vulnerable Ethereum app was patched before any exploit, so no funds-at-risk or withdrawal-freeze channel exists. All three were routed by systemic keyword matching and are effectively irrelevant to this symbol. No hack, del", "symbol": "1000PEPEUSDT", "decision": "allow", "evidence": [ { "id": "rss-c9a9253dbc95eb4a", "url": "https://cointelegraph.com/news/the-sandbox-compensation-sand-bridge-exploit?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound", "title": "The Sandbox pledges 1:1 repayment after $700K bridge exploit", "source": "cointelegraph", "tokens": [], "age_text": "16h", "age_hours": 16.0, "matched_by": "systemic_keyword", "published_at": "2026-08-28T05:40:48+00:00" }, { "id": "rss-dce9a2ba9164478b", "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/news-analysis/2026/08/27/connecticut-s-new-lawsuit-against-kalshi-piles-on-to-prediction-market-legal-fight", "title": "Connecticut's new lawsuit against Kalshi piles on to prediction market legal fight", "source": "coindesk", "tokens": [ "SUI" ], "age_text": "1d", "age_hours": 24.0, "matched_by": "systemic_keyword", "published_at": "2026-08-27T18:28:53+00:00" }, { "id": "rss-68aa705bc6aa47e8", "url": "https://decrypt.co/376750/no-ledger-wasnt-hacked-ethereum-app-exploit", "title": "No, Ledger Wasn’t Hacked: Vulnerable Ethereum App Was Patched Before Exploit, Company Says", "source": "decrypt", "tokens": [ "ETH" ], "age_text": "1d", "age_hours": 24.0, "matched_by": "systemic_keyword", "published_at": "2026-08-27T18:16:03+00:00" } ], "categories": [ "unknown" ], "confidence": 0.79, "risk_score": 8, "observed_at": "2026-08-28T21:45:56.770402+00:00", "unavailable": false, "corpus_count": 80, "evidence_ids": [ "rss-c9a9253dbc95eb4a", "rss-dce9a2ba9164478b", "rss-68aa705bc6aa47e8" ], "evidence_hash": "5e355706d3a9c143fd78a06b0c9098fa4ce2b39851fc2d424645578d8270a44d", "evidence_count": 3, "freshness_hours": 16.0, "agent_routed_count": 0 }, "carry": { "score": 0, "skill": "carry", "action": "no_trade", "symbol": "1000PEPEUSDT", "vetoes": [ "carry_data_quality" ], "factors": {}, "reasons": [ "spot_source_unavailable" ], "eligible": false, "metadata": {}, "confidence": 0, "data_as_of": "2026-08-28T21:45:47.153084+00:00", "horizon_hours": 24, "expected_net_bps": 0 }, "directional": { "score": -0.7888741326942109, "skill": "directional", "action": "short", "symbol": "1000PEPEUSDT", "vetoes": [], "factors": { "adx": 28.422449383303842, "rsi": 43.30786832695756, "flow_z": null, "atr_pct": 0.0029559817362549232, "flow_term": 0.0, "kyle_lambda": null, "momentum_1h": -0.0026155187445509043, "trend_1h_atr": -1.748451254135477, "trend_5m_atr": -1.0869806602830008, "volume_ratio": 1.4220893508246246, "vwap_position": -0.029520152379802888, "gross_edge_bps": 29.14871910560038, "taker_imbalance": null, "funding_edge_bps": 0.7500000000000001, "round_trip_cost_bps": 16.0 }, "reasons": [ "short structure score -0.789", "1h trend aligned; BTC trending_down", "directional net EV +13.9 bps" ], "eligible": true, "metadata": { "atr": 1.0821257940082024e-05, "frames": { "1h": { "vwap": null, "close": 0.0036676, "ema_mid": 0.003765676977370773, "ema_fast": 0.003713428038503618, "ema_slow": 0.0038153991096342823 }, "5m": { "vwap": 0.003772154577940989, "close": 0.0036608, "ema_mid": 0.0036687992647703766, "ema_fast": 0.003667187563382434, "ema_slow": 0.003678950061483237 } }, "btc_regime": "trending_down", "mark_price": 0.0036571, "ema_periods": { "mid": 21, "fast": 9, "slow": 50 }, "candle_price": 0.0036608, "funding_rate": 0.0001, "orderflow_enabled": false }, "confidence": 0.8775705705150314, "data_as_of": "2026-08-28T21:40:00+00:00", "horizon_hours": 6.0, "expected_net_bps": 13.898719105600382 }, "performance_carry": { "score": 0.0, "skill": "performance", "action": "allow", "symbol": "1000PEPEUSDT", "vetoes": [], "factors": { "wins": 0.0, "losses": 0.0, "samples": 0.0, "expectancy_usd": 0.0, "minimum_samples": 8.0, "sample_maturity": 0.0, "posterior_win_rate": 0.5, "win_rate_lower_bound": 0.3210613300064863 }, "reasons": [ "shrunk win rate 50.0%; lower bound 32.1%; n=0/8 minimum" ], "eligible": true, "metadata": {}, "confidence": 0.15, "data_as_of": "2026-08-28T21:45:47.153084+00:00", "horizon_hours": 24.0, "expected_net_bps": 0.0 }, "performance_directional": { "score": 0.0, "skill": "performance", "action": "allow", "symbol": "1000PEPEUSDT", "vetoes": [], "factors": { "wins": 0.0, "losses": 0.0, "samples": 0.0, "expectancy_usd": 0.0, "minimum_samples": 8.0, "sample_maturity": 0.0, "posterior_win_rate": 0.5, "win_rate_lower_bound": 0.3210613300064863 }, "reasons": [ "shrunk win rate 50.0%; lower bound 32.1%; n=0/8 minimum" ], "eligible": true, "metadata": {}, "confidence": 0.15, "data_as_of": "2026-08-28T21:45:47.153084+00:00", "horizon_hours": 24.0, "expected_net_bps": 0.0 } }, "captured_at": "2026-08-28T21:45:47.153084+00:00", "chart_setup": { "notes": [], "swing": { "low": { "price": 0.0036544, "formed_at": "2026-08-28T21:20:00+00:00", "distance_pct": 0.04386137259195163 }, "high": { "price": 0.0036758, "formed_at": "2026-08-28T21:30:00+00:00", "distance_pct": -0.5385801730235512 } }, "atr_pct": 0.0029559817362549232, "support": { "kind": "newyork_low", "price": 0.003612, "distance_pct": 1.2182411406423037 }, "ema_vwap": { "1h": [ { "name": "EMA9", "value": 0.003713428038503618, "relation": "di_bawah", "distance_pct": -1.5464193168196663 }, { "name": "EMA21", "value": 0.003765676977370773, "relation": "di_bawah", "distance_pct": -2.9124672145232267 }, { "name": "EMA50", "value": 0.0038153991096342823, "relation": "di_bawah", "distance_pct": -4.177708151993585 } ], "5m": [ { "name": "EMA9", "value": 0.003667187563382434, "relation": "di_bawah", "distance_pct": -0.3049937639981998 }, { "name": "EMA21", "value": 0.0036687992647703766, "relation": "di_bawah", "distance_pct": -0.3487897223828424 }, { "name": "EMA50", "value": 0.003678950061483237, "relation": "di_bawah", "distance_pct": -0.6237429456703576 }, { "name": "VWAP", "value": 0.003772154577940989, "relation": "di_bawah", "distance_pct": -3.0791873859100893 } ] }, "narrative": "Entry SHORT 1000PEPEUSDT di 0.003656, di bawah EMA9/EMA21/EMA50/VWAP pada frame 5m. Tren 1h turun (-1.75 ATR), searah posisi; rezim BTC trending_down. Level 1h: support terdekat newyork_low 0.003612 (+1.22%); resistance terdekat london_low 0.003717 (-1.64%). Volatilitas ATR 0.30% dari harga; pola candle 5m terakhir: evening_star, outside_bar.", "resistance": { "kind": "london_low", "price": 0.003717, "distance_pct": -1.641031207963401 }, "candle_patterns": { "1h": [ "inside_bar" ], "5m": [ "evening_star", "outside_bar" ] } }, "horizon_hours": 6.0, "roi_scenarios": { "usd_tp": { "roa_pct": 3.6837708418375525, "rom_pct": 38.50001382626931, "exit_price": 0.0036043721098733255, "r_multiple": 1.260694116307564, "net_pnl_usd": 19.25000025924246 }, "tp_hard": { "roa_pct": 7.280392380795366, "rom_pct": 76.08920841055068, "exit_price": 0.0035586, "r_multiple": 2.491563192432664, "net_pnl_usd": 38.0445910549063 }, "fee_note": "net = gross(fill exit ber-slippage per sisi) − fee entry − fee exit taker; funding di luar skenario (belum diketahui saat entry); usd_tp ter-cap di ambang dolar → net = ambang − fee entry; usd_tp_mode=trail: sentuh ambang TIDAK menutup — trailing USD di-arm, lantai awal usd_trail_floor = ambang × (1 − giveback) dan naik mengikuti peak uPnL bersih (exit reason usd_trail_stop)", "stop_loss": { "roa_pct": -2.926721497144795, "rom_pct": -30.58790107842521, "exit_price": 0.0036885, "r_multiple": -1.0016096901621594, "net_pnl_usd": -15.293945252757458 }, "trail_floor": { "roa_pct": 0.9035545607792376, "rom_pct": 9.443275539212646, "exit_price": 0.0036397543050000003, "r_multiple": 0.3092227957288019, "net_pnl_usd": 4.721636137541003 }, "usd_trail_floor": { "roa_pct": 2.535582542961389, "rom_pct": 26.500009678388516, "exit_price": 0.003618984434356778, "r_multiple": 0.8677505009320984, "net_pnl_usd": 13.25000025924246 } }, "snapshot_kind": "entry_snapshot", "thesis_version": 2, "breakeven_price": 0.003651253318222425, "expected_net_bps": 13.898719105600382, "funding_projection": { "note": "estimasi = rate saat entry × notional × settlement dalam max_hold; rate berubah tiap interval, interval riil simbol diinferensi dari history (fallback config)", "direction": "terima", "est_usd_paid": -0.11249996111363102, "horizon_hours": 6.0, "interval_hours": 8.0, "est_settlements": 0.75, "interval_source": "config_fallback", "funding_rate_at_entry": 0.0001 }, "utility_bps_per_day": 9.004697092254819 }, "funding_paid": 0.0, "last_mark_at": "2026-08-28T22:45:57.316169+00:00", "notional_usd": 1499.99948151508, "trail_peak_r": 0.4395117353440171, "working_type": "MARK_PRICE", "ambiguous_bar": false, "current_price": 0.00368926, "price_move_pct": -0.9191371340471433, "risk_modifiers": [ "risk_gates_bypassed" ], "unrealized_pnl": -13.644868324919997, "equity_at_entry": 522.5623711609624, "exit_mark_price": 0.0036885, "usd_trail_armed": false, "barrier_evidence": { "series": "mark", "trigger": "stop_loss", "last_low": 0.0036834, "mark_low": 0.00368356, "last_high": 0.0036897, "mark_high": 0.00369395, "fill_price": 0.0036885, "bar_open_ms": 1787956980000, "both_touched": false }, "trail_r_distance": 3.2497129999999735e-05, "usd_peak_net_usd": null, "exit_shadow_state": { "ptp": { "at": null, "open": true, "r_mult": 0.8, "pnl_usd": null, "fraction": 0.75, "part_done": false, "realized_usd": 0.0 }, "tstop": { "at": null, "open": true, "min_r": 0.5, "minutes": 120.0, "pnl_usd": null }, "peak_r": 0.4395117353440171 }, "last_processed_ts": "2026-08-28T22:43:59.999000+00:00", "take_profit_price": 0.0035586, "r_multiple_realized": -1.0016096901621594, "utility_bps_per_day": 9.004697092254819, "liquidation_estimate": 0.004757932922353337, "return_on_margin_pct": -30.58790107842521, "usd_tp_threshold_usd": 20.0, "return_on_account_pct": -2.926721497144795, "usd_tp_trail_giveback": 0.3, "safe_leverage_suggested": 30 }, { "qty": 12.4, "side": "short", "event": "meta_close", "shadow": { "bars": 360, "last": { "at": "2026-08-29T04:46:59.999000+00:00", "price": 120.89088314, "net_usd": -1.0465082937913723 }, "complete": true, "max_adverse": { "at": "2026-08-29T00:07:00+00:00", "price": 122.55, "net_usd": -21.636018882999963, "rom_pct": -43.27348367733453 }, "max_favorable": { "at": "2026-08-29T02:27:00+00:00", "price": 120.33, "net_usd": 5.914007646200144, "rom_pct": 11.828410519023763 }, "vs_actual_usd": 18.86877787773077, "follow_minutes": 360, "checked_through": "2026-08-29T04:46:59.999000+00:00" }, "source": "live", "symbol": "AAVEUSDT", "net_pnl": -12.954770231530627, "exit_fee": 0.7556994879018145, "leverage": 30, "risk_usd": 12.923815597028666, "strategy": "directional", "trade_id": "7ae02b85f56d490691ad333b66816cf7", "closed_at": "2026-08-28T22:47:02.104710+00:00", "entry_fee": 0.7499749400000001, "gross_pnl": -11.449095803628813, "llm_judge": { "model": "claude-opus-5", "score": 62.0, "reasons": [ "Tren 1h dan 5m searah short tanpa overextension (RSI 37.8, move 24h -5.2%), BTC trending_down mendukung", "Bahan bakar membaik vs penilaian lalu: volume_ratio 0.77 -> 1.75 dan taker 4h 0.446 tetap di sisi jual; perubahan_material tidak memburuk", "Funding +0.0001 di persentil 97.5 = sisi long padat, short menerima funding", "Cacat: delta OI 1h flat (-0.03%) jadi tidak ada konfirmasi paus menambah short, dan harga 3.15% di bawah VWAP 5m serta 3.76% di bawah EMA50-1h" ], "verdict": "approve", "key_risk": "Harga sudah jauh di bawah VWAP/EMA50-1h dengan OI flat, rawan bounce mean-reversion yang menghapus net EV tipis +12 bps", "better_entry": 122.9127644805556, "perubahan_material": { "alasan": [], "memburuk": false, "oi_1h_pct": { "dulu": -0.05, "kini": -0.03 }, "volume_ratio": { "dulu": 0.77, "kini": 1.75, "perubahan_pct": 126.5 }, "taker_ratio_4h": { "dulu": 0.446, "kini": 0.446 }, "harga_berubah_pct": -0.35 }, "better_entry_anchor": "ema_fast_1h" }, "opened_at": "2026-08-28T21:51:33.052801+00:00", "risk_tier": "fixed_margin", "tick_size": 0.01, "confidence": 0.9213377951747348, "exit_price": 121.887014177712, "margin_usd": 49.99832933333334, "paper_only": true, "stop_price": 121.85, "entry_price": 120.9637, "exit_policy": "trail", "exit_shadow": { "ptp_mode": "tanpa_partial", "ptp_pnl_usd": -12.9548, "real_net_usd": -12.9548, "tstop_pnl_usd": -12.9548, "tstop_triggered": false }, "sizing_mode": "fixed_margin", "trail_armed": false, "usd_tp_mode": "trail", "close_reason": "stop_loss", "entry_thesis": { "setup": { "side": "short", "score": -0.8940869102155231, "strategy": "directional", "btc_regime": "trending_down", "confidence": 0.9213377951747348, "score_note": "komponen skor ChartSkill yang sudah dihitung saat entry; mom_z tidak tersedia di jalur meta (null)", "gross_edge_bps": 27.247187237706054, "confidence_tier": "fixed_margin", "score_breakdown": { "adx": 24.89749863904927, "rsi": 37.77963131203093, "mom_z": null, "atr_pct": 0.0024379900366632602, "momentum_1h": -0.006241787122207687, "trend_1h_atr": -1.5658390615603566, "trend_5m_atr": -1.6156164901426273, "volume_ratio": 1.7494504408822584, "vwap_position": -0.03148154630319604 }, "funding_edge_bps": 0.7500000000000001, "round_trip_cost_bps": 16.0 }, "action": "short", "levels": { "stop": 121.85, "entry": 120.9637, "take_profit": 118.31, "mark_at_entry": 121.0 }, "reason": "selected short utility=8.17 bps/day (news x0.95); vol_target scale 0.91", "symbol": "AAVEUSDT", "vetoes": [], "filters": [ { "name": "session_window", "pass": true, "value": { "hour_utc": 21, "window_utc": null } }, { "name": "btc_gate", "pass": true, "value": { "applies": true, "btc_return_7d": -0.0013293753226638616 } }, { "name": "funding_extreme", "pass": true, "value": { "notes": null, "pctile": 97.5, "pctile_hi": 0.00029969299999999996, "pctile_lo": -0.00031965399999999995, "funding_rate": 0.0001 } }, { "name": "vol_target", "pass": true, "value": { "vol_scale": 0.9071708329024813, "realized_vol_daily_pct": 2.2046564191234257 } }, { "name": "taker_flow_gate", "pass": true, "value": { "min_ratio": 0.52, "taker_ratio_4h": 0.446082840497175 } }, { "name": "freshness_gate", "pass": true, "value": { "atr_1h": 1.750714285714285, "dist_low_atr": -1.2052223582211343, "made_new_low": false, "dist_high_atr": -5.740514075887385, "made_new_high": false, "max_atr_above": 1.0 } }, { "name": "exhaustion", "pass": true, "value": { "notes": null, "enabled": true, "max_pct": 40.0, "move_24h_pct": -5.176984250740668 } }, { "name": "overextended", "pass": true, "value": { "price": 121.0, "enabled": true, "max_pct": 40.0, "ema50_1h": 125.72914128714976, "ema_source": "chart_skill_1h", "dist_ema50_pct": -3.7613724540987548 } }, { "name": "atr_band", "pass": true, "value": { "enabled": true, "dead_pct": 1.2, "atr_pct_1h": 1.4788994154173625, "extreme_pct": 15.0 } }, { "name": "oi_crowd", "pass": true, "value": { "note": null, "enabled": true, "max_pct": 8.0, "oi_change_1h_pct": -0.02607347766740986 } }, { "name": "crowd_positioning", "pass": true, "value": { "note": null, "side": "short", "enabled": false, "ls_ratio": null, "threshold": 1.5, "delta_block": 0.3, "ls_delta_1h": null } }, { "name": "stop_truncated", "pass": true, "value": { "atr_pct": 0.0024379900366632602, "cap_pct": 0.02, "enabled": true, "ratio_3atr_vs_cap": 0.365698505499489 } }, { "name": "plateau", "pass": true, "value": { "count": 0, "enabled": false, "conditions": null, "min_conditions": null } }, { "name": "universe", "pass": true, "value": { "rank": 26, "size": 48, "quote_volume_24h": 118351161.255 } }, { "name": "regime", "pass": true, "value": { "note": null, "btc_regime": "trending_down", "choppy_no_trade": false } }, { "name": "symbol_recent_loss", "pass": true, "value": { "enabled": true, "block_hours": 24.0, "block_until": null, "manual_exempt": null } }, { "name": "news", "pass": true, "value": { "reason": "No fresh evidence touches Aave's protocol, markets, oracles, collateral, or deployment chains. The $700K Sandbox bridge exploit is confined to SAND's own bridge with 1:1 repayment pledged and no Aave collateral, market, or bridge dependency", "binding": false, "decision": "allow", "risk_score": 8, "unavailable": false } }, { "name": "portfolio_heat", "pass": true, "value": { "cap_usd": 6.0, "risk_usd": 12.923815597028666, "open_risk_after_usd": 44.40031464463709, "open_risk_before_usd": 31.476499047608424 } }, { "name": "correlated_side", "pass": true, "value": { "cap": 3, "applies": true, "same_side_alt_count": 2 } } ], "expected": { "horizon_hours": 6.0, "expected_net_bps": 11.997187237706054, "utility_bps_per_day": 8.16552401124794 }, "strategy": "directional", "exit_plan": { "tp_hard_r": 3.0, "stop_price": 121.85, "exit_policy": "trail", "trail_arm_r": 1.0, "usd_tp_mode": "trail", "tp_hard_price": 118.31, "usd_tp_r_mult": 2.0, "usd_tp_abs_usd": 20.0, "trail_arm_price": 120.07740000000001, "daily_guardrails": { "loss_limit_usd": 100.0, "profit_target_usd": 100.0, "profit_floor_fraction": 0.5, "protect_profit_at_usd": 0.0 }, "trail_distance_r": 0.5, "time_stop_minutes": 360.0, "usd_trail_floor_usd": 14.0, "trail_distance_price": 0.4431499999999957, "usd_tp_threshold_usd": 20.0, "usd_tp_trail_giveback": 0.3 }, "risk_plan": { "qty": 12.4, "leverage": 30, "risk_usd": 12.923815597028666, "risk_tier": "fixed_margin", "margin_usd": 49.99832933333334, "notional_usd": 1499.9498800000001, "entry_fee_usd": 0.7499749400000001, "stop_distance": { "pct": 0.7326991485875444, "price": 0.8862999999999914 }, "risk_modifiers": [ "risk_gates_bypassed" ], "leverage_reason": "safe_leverage: min(cap config 30x, floor(1/(stop_pct×2+0.005))) — estimasi likuidasi >= 2× jarak stop", "est_exit_fee_usd": 0.7499749400000001, "entry_slippage_usd": 0.4501199999999642, "liquidation_estimate": 159.46320960700135 }, "confidence": 0.9213377951747348, "data_as_of": "2026-08-28T21:45:00+00:00", "assessments": { "news": { "model": "claude-opus-5", "usage": { "metering": { "unit": "credit", "usage": 0.25760880407960196, "unitPlural": "credits" }, "context_usage_pct": 0.8924000263214111 }, "reason": "No fresh evidence touches Aave's protocol, markets, oracles, collateral, or deployment chains. The $700K Sandbox bridge exploit is confined to SAND's own bridge with 1:1 repayment pledged and no Aave collateral, market, or bridge dependency. The Kalshi/Connecticut prediction-market suit has no transmission channel to Aave (the SUI tag appears to be a mis-tag by the routing reader). The Ledger item is the only nominal Ethereum-adjacent link, but it is an explicit non-event: a hardware-wallet Ethereum app vulnerability patched before exploitation, with no loss of funds and no smart-contract or lending-market exposure. All three items were routed here on systemic keywords and are immaterial to AAVEUSDT; nothing meets the veto bar of hack, delisting, depeg, insolvency, chain halt, frozen withd", "symbol": "AAVEUSDT", "decision": "allow", "evidence": [ { "id": "rss-c9a9253dbc95eb4a", "url": "https://cointelegraph.com/news/the-sandbox-compensation-sand-bridge-exploit?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound", "title": "The Sandbox pledges 1:1 repayment after $700K bridge exploit", "source": "cointelegraph", "tokens": [], "age_text": "16h", "age_hours": 16.0, "matched_by": "systemic_keyword", "published_at": "2026-08-28T05:40:48+00:00" }, { "id": "rss-dce9a2ba9164478b", "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/news-analysis/2026/08/27/connecticut-s-new-lawsuit-against-kalshi-piles-on-to-prediction-market-legal-fight", "title": "Connecticut's new lawsuit against Kalshi piles on to prediction market legal fight", "source": "coindesk", "tokens": [ "SUI" ], "age_text": "1d", "age_hours": 24.0, "matched_by": "systemic_keyword", "published_at": "2026-08-27T18:28:53+00:00" }, { "id": "rss-68aa705bc6aa47e8", "url": "https://decrypt.co/376750/no-ledger-wasnt-hacked-ethereum-app-exploit", "title": "No, Ledger Wasn’t Hacked: Vulnerable Ethereum App Was Patched Before Exploit, Company Says", "source": "decrypt", "tokens": [ "ETH" ], "age_text": "1d", "age_hours": 24.0, "matched_by": "systemic_keyword", "published_at": "2026-08-27T18:16:03+00:00" } ], "categories": [ "unknown" ], "confidence": 0.78, "risk_score": 8, "observed_at": "2026-08-28T21:51:43.414765+00:00", "unavailable": false, "corpus_count": 80, "evidence_ids": [ "rss-c9a9253dbc95eb4a", "rss-dce9a2ba9164478b", "rss-68aa705bc6aa47e8" ], "evidence_hash": "5e355706d3a9c143fd78a06b0c9098fa4ce2b39851fc2d424645578d8270a44d", "evidence_count": 3, "freshness_hours": 16.0, "agent_routed_count": 0 }, "carry": { "score": 0.02400952079619166, "skill": "carry", "action": "no_trade", "symbol": "AAVEUSDT", "vetoes": [ "carry_quality_gate" ], "factors": { "funding_mean": 3.3382444444444436e-05, "risk_buffer_bps": 5.672441887601977, "basis_change_vol": 0.0002500790816349363, "funding_edge_bps": 14.020626666666663, "current_basis_pct": 0.05788472670138489, "annual_funding_pct": 3.6553776666666655, "funding_persistence": 0.7407407407407407, "round_trip_cost_bps": 8.0, "basis_convergence_bps": 2.8942363350692446 }, "reasons": [ "annual funding 3.66%; persistence 74.1%", "carry net EV +3.2 bps over 14d" ], "eligible": false, "metadata": { "perp_price": 121.0, "spot_price": 120.93 }, "confidence": 0.8833333333333333, "data_as_of": "2026-08-28T21:51:33.052801+00:00", "horizon_hours": 336.0, "expected_net_bps": 3.2424211141339327 }, "directional": { "score": -0.8940869102155231, "skill": "directional", "action": "short", "symbol": "AAVEUSDT", "vetoes": [], "factors": { "adx": 24.89749863904927, "rsi": 37.77963131203093, "flow_z": null, "atr_pct": 0.0024379900366632602, "flow_term": 0.0, "kyle_lambda": null, "momentum_1h": -0.006241787122207687, "trend_1h_atr": -1.5658390615603566, "trend_5m_atr": -1.6156164901426273, "volume_ratio": 1.7494504408822584, "vwap_position": -0.03148154630319604, "gross_edge_bps": 27.247187237706054, "taker_imbalance": null, "funding_edge_bps": 0.7500000000000001, "round_trip_cost_bps": 16.0 }, "reasons": [ "short structure score -0.894", "1h trend aligned; BTC trending_down", "directional net EV +12.0 bps" ], "eligible": true, "metadata": { "atr": 0.2949967944362545, "frames": { "1h": { "vwap": null, "close": 121.62, "ema_mid": 124.38421625957307, "ema_fast": 122.9127644805556, "ema_slow": 125.72914128714976 }, "5m": { "vwap": 124.9330867554943, "close": 121.0, "ema_mid": 121.45292822686355, "ema_fast": 121.32643148905628, "ema_slow": 121.8030331746867 } }, "btc_regime": "trending_down", "mark_price": 121.0, "ema_periods": { "mid": 21, "fast": 9, "slow": 50 }, "candle_price": 121.0, "funding_rate": 0.0001, "orderflow_enabled": false }, "confidence": 0.9213377951747348, "data_as_of": "2026-08-28T21:45:00+00:00", "horizon_hours": 6.0, "expected_net_bps": 11.997187237706054 }, "performance_carry": { "score": 0.0, "skill": "performance", "action": "allow", "symbol": "AAVEUSDT", "vetoes": [], "factors": { "wins": 0.0, "losses": 0.0, "samples": 0.0, "expectancy_usd": 0.0, "minimum_samples": 8.0, "sample_maturity": 0.0, "posterior_win_rate": 0.5, "win_rate_lower_bound": 0.3210613300064863 }, "reasons": [ "shrunk win rate 50.0%; lower bound 32.1%; n=0/8 minimum" ], "eligible": true, "metadata": {}, "confidence": 0.15, "data_as_of": "2026-08-28T21:51:33.052801+00:00", "horizon_hours": 24.0, "expected_net_bps": 0.0 }, "performance_directional": { "score": 0.0, "skill": "performance", "action": "allow", "symbol": "AAVEUSDT", "vetoes": [], "factors": { "wins": 0.0, "losses": 0.0, "samples": 0.0, "expectancy_usd": 0.0, "minimum_samples": 8.0, "sample_maturity": 0.0, "posterior_win_rate": 0.5, "win_rate_lower_bound": 0.3210613300064863 }, "reasons": [ "shrunk win rate 50.0%; lower bound 32.1%; n=0/8 minimum" ], "eligible": true, "metadata": {}, "confidence": 0.15, "data_as_of": "2026-08-28T21:51:33.052801+00:00", "horizon_hours": 24.0, "expected_net_bps": 0.0 } }, "captured_at": "2026-08-28T21:51:33.052801+00:00", "chart_setup": { "notes": [], "swing": { "low": { "price": 121.1, "formed_at": "2026-08-28T21:20:00+00:00", "distance_pct": -0.11255161023946444 }, "high": { "price": 121.61, "formed_at": "2026-08-28T21:30:00+00:00", "distance_pct": -0.5314530055094125 } }, "atr_pct": 0.0024379900366632602, "support": { "kind": "newyork_low", "price": 119.51, "distance_pct": 1.2163835662287654 }, "ema_vwap": { "1h": [ { "name": "EMA9", "value": 122.9127644805556, "relation": "di_bawah", "distance_pct": -1.5857299189328113 }, { "name": "EMA21", "value": 124.38421625957307, "relation": "di_bawah", "distance_pct": -2.749960053158921 }, { "name": "EMA50", "value": 125.72914128714976, "relation": "di_bawah", "distance_pct": -3.790244042362525 } ], "5m": [ { "name": "EMA9", "value": 121.32643148905628, "relation": "di_bawah", "distance_pct": -0.2989715304442887 }, { "name": "EMA21", "value": 121.45292822686355, "relation": "di_bawah", "distance_pct": -0.40281303547470637 }, { "name": "EMA50", "value": 121.8030331746867, "relation": "di_bawah", "distance_pct": -0.689090536426093 }, { "name": "VWAP", "value": 124.9330867554943, "relation": "di_bawah", "distance_pct": -3.177210183930505 } ] }, "narrative": "Entry SHORT AAVEUSDT di 120.964, di bawah EMA9/EMA21/EMA50/VWAP pada frame 5m. Tren 1h turun (-1.57 ATR), searah posisi; rezim BTC trending_down. Level 1h: support terdekat newyork_low 119.51 (+1.22%); resistance terdekat london_low 122.69 (-1.41%). Volatilitas ATR 0.24% dari harga; pola candle 5m terakhir: three_crows.", "resistance": { "kind": "london_low", "price": 122.69, "distance_pct": -1.407042138723608 }, "candle_patterns": { "1h": [ "tweezer_bottom" ], "5m": [ "three_crows" ] } }, "horizon_hours": 6.0, "roi_scenarios": { "usd_tp": { "roa_pct": 3.647172839704836, "rom_pct": 38.50133657799285, "exit_price": 119.25537458621841, "r_multiple": 1.4895001337241147, "net_pnl_usd": 19.25002506 }, "tp_hard": { "roa_pct": 5.86996069922742, "rom_pct": 61.966170103096985, "exit_price": 118.31, "r_multiple": 2.39728349346946, "net_pnl_usd": 30.982049803399974 }, "fee_note": "net = gross(fill exit ber-slippage per sisi) − fee entry − fee exit taker; funding di luar skenario (belum diketahui saat entry); usd_tp ter-cap di ambang dolar → net = ambang − fee entry; usd_tp_mode=trail: sentuh ambang TIDAK menutup — trailing USD di-arm, lantai awal usd_trail_floor = ambang × (1 − giveback) dan naik mengikuti peak uPnL bersih (exit reason usd_trail_stop)", "stop_loss": { "roa_pct": -2.4533739211642325, "rom_pct": -25.89901253433842, "exit_price": 121.85, "r_multiple": -1.0019543751442064, "net_pnl_usd": -12.949073580999805 }, "trail_floor": { "roa_pct": 0.6724614491972255, "rom_pct": 7.098831267169269, "exit_price": 120.52055000000001, "r_multiple": 0.27463228712370014, "net_pnl_usd": 3.549297035776931 }, "usd_trail_floor": { "roa_pct": 2.510393174742207, "rom_pct": 26.500935604595, "exit_price": 119.73885869415138, "r_multiple": 1.0252409561651694, "net_pnl_usd": 13.25002506 } }, "snapshot_kind": "entry_snapshot", "thesis_version": 2, "breakeven_price": 120.80655478518867, "expected_net_bps": 11.997187237706054, "funding_projection": { "note": "estimasi = rate saat entry × notional × settlement dalam max_hold; rate berubah tiap interval, interval riil simbol diinferensi dari history (fallback config)", "direction": "terima", "est_usd_paid": -0.11249624100000002, "horizon_hours": 6.0, "interval_hours": 8.0, "est_settlements": 0.75, "interval_source": "config_fallback", "funding_rate_at_entry": 0.0001 }, "utility_bps_per_day": 8.16552401124794 }, "funding_paid": 0.0, "last_mark_at": "2026-08-28T22:47:02.104710+00:00", "notional_usd": 1499.9498800000001, "trail_peak_r": 0.4335212794764816, "working_type": "MARK_PRICE", "ambiguous_bar": false, "current_price": 121.85045904, "price_move_pct": -0.7632985579244078, "risk_modifiers": [ "risk_gates_bypassed" ], "unrealized_pnl": -10.995812096000014, "equity_at_entry": 527.8067672152848, "exit_mark_price": 121.85045904, "usd_trail_armed": false, "barrier_evidence": { "series": "mark", "trigger": "stop_loss", "last_low": null, "mark_low": 121.85045904, "last_high": null, "mark_high": 121.85045904, "fill_price": 121.85045904, "bar_open_ms": 1787957220000, "both_touched": false }, "trail_r_distance": 0.8862999999999914, "usd_peak_net_usd": null, "exit_shadow_state": { "ptp": { "at": null, "open": true, "r_mult": 0.8, "pnl_usd": null, "fraction": 0.75, "part_done": false, "realized_usd": 0.0 }, "tstop": { "at": null, "open": true, "min_r": 0.5, "minutes": 120.0, "pnl_usd": null }, "peak_r": 0.4335212794764816 }, "last_processed_ts": "2026-08-28T22:46:59.999000+00:00", "take_profit_price": 118.31, "r_multiple_realized": -1.0023951621925864, "utility_bps_per_day": 8.16552401124794, "liquidation_estimate": 158.17381095034293, "return_on_margin_pct": -25.910406216100952, "usd_tp_threshold_usd": 20.0, "return_on_account_pct": -2.4544532272445387, "usd_tp_trail_giveback": 0.3, "safe_leverage_suggested": 30 }, { "qty": 2033.1, "side": "short", "event": "meta_close", "shadow": { "bars": 360, "last": { "at": "2026-08-29T06:04:59.999000+00:00", "price": 0.74144443, "net_usd": -9.327769217757876 }, "complete": true, "max_adverse": { "at": "2026-08-29T00:08:00+00:00", "price": 0.74640354, "net_usd": -19.418203164345552, "rom_pct": -38.83698443895318 }, "max_favorable": { "at": "2026-08-29T02:34:00+00:00", "price": 0.7358, "net_usd": 2.1571036891022257, "rom_pct": 4.314271598553187 }, "vs_actual_usd": 18.31254106468506, "follow_minutes": 360, "checked_through": "2026-08-29T06:04:59.999000+00:00" }, "source": "live", "symbol": "SUIUSDT", "net_pnl": -16.155437375582835, "exit_fee": 0.7573535779319999, "leverage": 30, "risk_usd": 16.20713274357298, "strategy": "directional", "trade_id": "86201a2c7545411c8be5b694325de317", "closed_at": "2026-08-29T00:05:32.191976+00:00", "entry_fee": 0.7499888358300001, "gross_pnl": -14.729484203999835, "llm_judge": { "model": "claude-opus-5", "score": 60.0, "reasons": [ "Tren 1h & 5m searah turun (-1.2 ATR, belum overextended), ADX 31, BTC trending_down, taker 4h 0.439 = agresor jual searah short; RSI 48 bukan area kapitulasi", "Funding +5.6e-5 di persentil 97.5 → sisi long padat dan membayar short, net EV +12.6 bps di atas biaya 16 bps", "Bahan bakar hanya separuh: volume_ratio naik ke 1.22 (dari 0.89, +37%) tapi OI 1h datar (0.23% → 0.00%) dan momentum_1h ≈ 0, dorongan turun mendatar", "Lokasi entry telat tipis: harga 2.75% di bawah VWAP 5m dan menempel EMA cepat 5m saat RSI naik 42.7 → 48; memburuk=false jadi verdict lama dijaga" ], "verdict": "approve", "key_risk": "Relief bounce dari posisi -2.75% di bawah VWAP 5m ke area 0.7404-0.7468 saat OI datar dan momentum 1h nol bisa stop-out sebelum leg turun berikutnya", "better_entry": 0.7404477699812839, "perubahan_material": { "alasan": [], "memburuk": false, "oi_1h_pct": { "dulu": 0.23, "kini": 0.0 }, "volume_ratio": { "dulu": 0.89, "kini": 1.22, "perubahan_pct": 37.2 }, "taker_ratio_4h": { "dulu": 0.439, "kini": 0.439 }, "harga_berubah_pct": -0.11 }, "better_entry_anchor": "ema_slow_5m" }, "opened_at": "2026-08-28T21:29:50.656716+00:00", "risk_tier": "fixed_margin", "tick_size": 0.0001, "confidence": 0.8455086133827115, "exit_price": 0.74502344, "margin_usd": 49.99925572200001, "paper_only": true, "stop_price": 0.7448, "entry_price": 0.7377786000000001, "exit_policy": "trail", "exit_shadow": { "ptp_mode": "tanpa_partial", "ptp_pnl_usd": -16.1554, "real_net_usd": -16.1554, "tstop_pnl_usd": -16.1554, "tstop_triggered": false }, "sizing_mode": "fixed_margin", "trail_armed": false, "usd_tp_mode": "trail", "close_reason": "stop_loss", "entry_thesis": { "setup": { "side": "short", "score": -0.7108668935700353, "strategy": "directional", "btc_regime": "trending_down", "confidence": 0.8455086133827115, "score_note": "komponen skor ChartSkill yang sudah dihitung saat entry; mom_z tidak tersedia di jalur meta (null)", "gross_edge_bps": 28.163677295728466, "confidence_tier": "fixed_margin", "score_breakdown": { "adx": 31.13295547979806, "rsi": 48.04000575260417, "mom_z": null, "atr_pct": 0.0031695022008171496, "momentum_1h": -0.0014893040888166453, "trend_1h_atr": -1.2645869937011507, "trend_5m_atr": -1.1911045516957937, "volume_ratio": 1.2150494296193126, "vwap_position": -0.027541461663473342 }, "funding_edge_bps": 0.42255000000000004, "round_trip_cost_bps": 16.0 }, "action": "short", "levels": { "stop": 0.7448, "entry": 0.7377786000000001, "take_profit": 0.7167, "mark_at_entry": 0.738 }, "reason": "selected short utility=7.91 bps/day (news x0.96); vol_target scale 0.91", "symbol": "SUIUSDT", "vetoes": [], "filters": [ { "name": "session_window", "pass": true, "value": { "hour_utc": 21, "window_utc": null } }, { "name": "btc_gate", "pass": true, "value": { "applies": true, "btc_return_7d": -0.0013293753226638616 } }, { "name": "funding_extreme", "pass": true, "value": { "notes": null, "pctile": 97.5, "pctile_hi": 0.0002699209999999997, "pctile_lo": -0.00035021299999999993, "funding_rate": 5.634e-05 } }, { "name": "vol_target", "pass": true, "value": { "vol_scale": 0.9071708329024813, "realized_vol_daily_pct": 2.2046564191234257 } }, { "name": "taker_flow_gate", "pass": true, "value": { "min_ratio": 0.52, "taker_ratio_4h": 0.43915690636174914 } }, { "name": "freshness_gate", "pass": true, "value": { "atr_1h": 0.012221428571428581, "dist_low_atr": -0.7609585037989454, "made_new_low": false, "dist_high_atr": -5.171244886031559, "made_new_high": false, "max_atr_above": 1.0 } }, { "name": "exhaustion", "pass": true, "value": { "notes": null, "enabled": true, "max_pct": 40.0, "move_24h_pct": -5.104139881717673 } }, { "name": "overextended", "pass": true, "value": { "price": 0.7375, "enabled": true, "max_pct": 40.0, "ema50_1h": 0.7620567078300845, "ema_source": "chart_skill_1h", "dist_ema50_pct": -3.2224252575649315 } }, { "name": "atr_band", "pass": true, "value": { "enabled": true, "dead_pct": 1.2, "atr_pct_1h": 1.63304117656835, "extreme_pct": 15.0 } }, { "name": "oi_crowd", "pass": true, "value": { "note": null, "enabled": true, "max_pct": 8.0, "oi_change_1h_pct": 0.0018923507412171858 } }, { "name": "crowd_positioning", "pass": true, "value": { "note": null, "side": "short", "enabled": false, "ls_ratio": null, "threshold": 1.5, "delta_block": 0.3, "ls_delta_1h": null } }, { "name": "stop_truncated", "pass": true, "value": { "atr_pct": 0.0031695022008171496, "cap_pct": 0.02, "enabled": true, "ratio_3atr_vs_cap": 0.4754253301225725 } }, { "name": "plateau", "pass": true, "value": { "count": 0, "enabled": false, "conditions": null, "min_conditions": null } }, { "name": "universe", "pass": true, "value": { "rank": 13, "size": 48, "quote_volume_24h": 273441879.97445 } }, { "name": "regime", "pass": true, "value": { "note": null, "btc_regime": "trending_down", "choppy_no_trade": false } }, { "name": "symbol_recent_loss", "pass": true, "value": { "enabled": true, "block_hours": 24.0, "block_until": null, "manual_exempt": null } }, { "name": "news", "pass": true, "value": { "reason": "No evidence establishes a transmission channel to SUI. The Kalshi/Connecticut prediction-market suit matched only because the substring 'sui' appears in 'lawsuit' - it concerns US prediction-market regulation, not the Sui chain, foundation,", "binding": false, "decision": "allow", "risk_score": 8, "unavailable": false } }, { "name": "portfolio_heat", "pass": true, "value": { "cap_usd": 6.0, "risk_usd": 16.20713274357298, "open_risk_after_usd": 44.83904016515716, "open_risk_before_usd": 28.631907421584177 } }, { "name": "correlated_side", "pass": true, "value": { "cap": 3, "applies": true, "same_side_alt_count": 1 } } ], "expected": { "horizon_hours": 6.0, "expected_net_bps": 12.586227295728467, "utility_bps_per_day": 7.910874216442184 }, "strategy": "directional", "exit_plan": { "tp_hard_r": 3.0, "stop_price": 0.7448, "exit_policy": "trail", "trail_arm_r": 1.0, "usd_tp_mode": "trail", "tp_hard_price": 0.7167, "usd_tp_r_mult": 2.0, "usd_tp_abs_usd": 20.0, "trail_arm_price": 0.7307572000000001, "daily_guardrails": { "loss_limit_usd": 100.0, "profit_target_usd": 100.0, "profit_floor_fraction": 0.5, "protect_profit_at_usd": 0.0 }, "trail_distance_r": 0.5, "time_stop_minutes": 360.0, "usd_trail_floor_usd": 14.0, "trail_distance_price": 0.0035106999999999777, "usd_tp_threshold_usd": 20.0, "usd_tp_trail_giveback": 0.3 }, "risk_plan": { "qty": 2033.1, "leverage": 30, "risk_usd": 16.20713274357298, "risk_tier": "fixed_margin", "margin_usd": 49.99925572200001, "notional_usd": 1499.9776716600002, "entry_fee_usd": 0.7499888358300001, "stop_distance": { "pct": 0.9516947225088874, "price": 0.0070213999999999555 }, "risk_modifiers": [ "risk_gates_bypassed" ], "leverage_reason": "safe_leverage: min(cap config 30x, floor(1/(stop_pct×2+0.005))) — estimasi likuidasi >= 2× jarak stop", "est_exit_fee_usd": 0.7499888358300001, "entry_slippage_usd": 0.45012833999985197, "liquidation_estimate": 0.9645642361160529 }, "confidence": 0.8455086133827115, "data_as_of": "2026-08-28T21:20:00+00:00", "assessments": { "news": { "model": "claude-opus-5", "usage": { "metering": { "unit": "credit", "usage": 0.3147063909784411, "unitPlural": "credits" }, "context_usage_pct": 0.9156000018119812 }, "reason": "No evidence establishes a transmission channel to SUI. The Kalshi/Connecticut prediction-market suit matched only because the substring 'sui' appears in 'lawsuit' - it concerns US prediction-market regulation, not the Sui chain, foundation, bridges, custodians, or listings. The Sandbox $700K bridge exploit is a SAND-specific Ethereum/Polygon-side bridge with 1:1 repayment pledged and no shared infrastructure with Sui. The Ledger item is an explicit denial: an Ethereum app vulnerability patched before exploitation, no funds lost and no Sui app path implicated. No hack, delisting, depeg, insolvency, chain halt, or withdrawal freeze touching Sui spot venues or the SUI perp is present, so no veto condition is met for delta-neutral long spot + short perp.", "symbol": "SUIUSDT", "decision": "allow", "evidence": [ { "id": "rss-dce9a2ba9164478b", "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/news-analysis/2026/08/27/connecticut-s-new-lawsuit-against-kalshi-piles-on-to-prediction-market-legal-fight", "title": "Connecticut's new lawsuit against Kalshi piles on to prediction market legal fight", "source": "coindesk", "tokens": [ "SUI" ], "age_text": "1d", "age_hours": 24.0, "matched_by": "ticker_match", "published_at": "2026-08-27T18:28:53+00:00" }, { "id": "rss-c9a9253dbc95eb4a", "url": "https://cointelegraph.com/news/the-sandbox-compensation-sand-bridge-exploit?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound", "title": "The Sandbox pledges 1:1 repayment after $700K bridge exploit", "source": "cointelegraph", "tokens": [], "age_text": "15h", "age_hours": 15.0, "matched_by": "systemic_keyword", "published_at": "2026-08-28T05:40:48+00:00" }, { "id": "rss-68aa705bc6aa47e8", "url": "https://decrypt.co/376750/no-ledger-wasnt-hacked-ethereum-app-exploit", "title": "No, Ledger Wasn’t Hacked: Vulnerable Ethereum App Was Patched Before Exploit, Company Says", "source": "decrypt", "tokens": [ "ETH" ], "age_text": "1d", "age_hours": 24.0, "matched_by": "systemic_keyword", "published_at": "2026-08-27T18:16:03+00:00" } ], "categories": [ "unknown" ], "confidence": 0.68, "risk_score": 8, "observed_at": "2026-08-28T21:30:01.003469+00:00", "unavailable": false, "corpus_count": 80, "evidence_ids": [ "rss-dce9a2ba9164478b", "rss-c9a9253dbc95eb4a", "rss-68aa705bc6aa47e8" ], "evidence_hash": "1b5d70953865b6d46d96b5c3013fad5ac101032ea9a341b566071c39ed22187f", "evidence_count": 3, "freshness_hours": 15.0, "agent_routed_count": 0 }, "carry": { "score": 0.010637850773191373, "skill": "carry", "action": "no_trade", "symbol": "SUIUSDT", "vetoes": [ "carry_quality_gate" ], "factors": { "funding_mean": 3.615288888888888e-05, "risk_buffer_bps": 5.6881539626594435, "basis_change_vol": 0.0002507717747252857, "funding_edge_bps": 15.18421333333333, "current_basis_pct": -0.0406338886631441, "annual_funding_pct": 3.9587413333333323, "funding_persistence": 0.7111111111111111, "round_trip_cost_bps": 8.0, "basis_convergence_bps": 0.0 }, "reasons": [ "annual funding 3.96%; persistence 71.1%", "carry net EV +1.5 bps over 14d" ], "eligible": false, "metadata": { "perp_price": 0.738, "spot_price": 0.7383 }, "confidence": 0.8700000000000001, "data_as_of": "2026-08-28T21:29:50.656716+00:00", "horizon_hours": 336.0, "expected_net_bps": 1.496059370673887 }, "directional": { "score": -0.7108668935700353, "skill": "directional", "action": "short", "symbol": "SUIUSDT", "vetoes": [], "factors": { "adx": 31.13295547979806, "rsi": 48.04000575260417, "flow_z": null, "atr_pct": 0.0031695022008171496, "flow_term": 0.0, "kyle_lambda": null, "momentum_1h": -0.0014893040888166453, "trend_1h_atr": -1.2645869937011507, "trend_5m_atr": -1.1911045516957937, "volume_ratio": 1.2150494296193126, "vwap_position": -0.027541461663473342, "gross_edge_bps": 28.163677295728466, "taker_imbalance": null, "funding_edge_bps": 0.42255000000000004, "round_trip_cost_bps": 16.0 }, "reasons": [ "short structure score -0.711", "1h trend aligned; BTC trending_down", "directional net EV +12.6 bps" ], "eligible": true, "metadata": { "atr": 0.002337507873102648, "frames": { "1h": { "vwap": null, "close": 0.7381, "ema_mid": 0.7551611897433899, "ema_fast": 0.7468140376827997, "ema_slow": 0.7620567078300845 }, "5m": { "vwap": 0.7583870889360042, "close": 0.7375, "ema_mid": 0.7377803845735444, "ema_fast": 0.7376635537140066, "ema_slow": 0.7404477699812839 } }, "btc_regime": "trending_down", "mark_price": 0.738, "ema_periods": { "mid": 21, "fast": 9, "slow": 50 }, "candle_price": 0.7375, "funding_rate": 5.634e-05, "orderflow_enabled": false }, "confidence": 0.8455086133827115, "data_as_of": "2026-08-28T21:20:00+00:00", "horizon_hours": 6.0, "expected_net_bps": 12.586227295728467 }, "performance_carry": { "score": 0.0, "skill": "performance", "action": "allow", "symbol": "SUIUSDT", "vetoes": [], "factors": { "wins": 0.0, "losses": 0.0, "samples": 0.0, "expectancy_usd": 0.0, "minimum_samples": 8.0, "sample_maturity": 0.0, "posterior_win_rate": 0.5, "win_rate_lower_bound": 0.3210613300064863 }, "reasons": [ "shrunk win rate 50.0%; lower bound 32.1%; n=0/8 minimum" ], "eligible": true, "metadata": {}, "confidence": 0.15, "data_as_of": "2026-08-28T21:29:50.656716+00:00", "horizon_hours": 24.0, "expected_net_bps": 0.0 }, "performance_directional": { "score": 0.0, "skill": "performance", "action": "allow", "symbol": "SUIUSDT", "vetoes": [], "factors": { "wins": 0.0, "losses": 0.0, "samples": 0.0, "expectancy_usd": 0.0, "minimum_samples": 8.0, "sample_maturity": 0.0, "posterior_win_rate": 0.5, "win_rate_lower_bound": 0.3210613300064863 }, "reasons": [ "shrunk win rate 50.0%; lower bound 32.1%; n=0/8 minimum" ], "eligible": true, "metadata": {}, "confidence": 0.15, "data_as_of": "2026-08-28T21:29:50.656716+00:00", "horizon_hours": 24.0, "expected_net_bps": 0.0 } }, "captured_at": "2026-08-28T21:29:50.656716+00:00", "chart_setup": { "notes": [], "swing": { "low": { "price": 0.7356, "formed_at": "2026-08-28T21:05:00+00:00", "distance_pct": 0.29616639477977574 }, "high": { "price": 0.739, "formed_at": "2026-08-28T21:05:00+00:00", "distance_pct": -0.16527740189444223 } }, "atr_pct": 0.0031695022008171496, "support": { "kind": "newyork_low", "price": 0.7288, "distance_pct": 1.2319703622393054 }, "ema_vwap": { "1h": [ { "name": "EMA9", "value": 0.7468140376827997, "relation": "di_bawah", "distance_pct": -1.2098644678445878 }, { "name": "EMA21", "value": 0.7551611897433899, "relation": "di_bawah", "distance_pct": -2.3018383332565793 }, { "name": "EMA50", "value": 0.7620567078300845, "relation": "di_bawah", "distance_pct": -3.1858662984825687 } ], "5m": [ { "name": "EMA9", "value": 0.7376635537140066, "relation": "di_atas", "distance_pct": 0.015596037707735566 }, { "name": "EMA21", "value": 0.7377803845735444, "relation": "di_bawah", "distance_pct": -0.00024188411371425334 }, { "name": "EMA50", "value": 0.7404477699812839, "relation": "di_bawah", "distance_pct": -0.3604805213136541 }, { "name": "VWAP", "value": 0.7583870889360042, "relation": "di_bawah", "distance_pct": -2.7174103088855617 } ] }, "narrative": "Entry SHORT SUIUSDT di 0.737779, di atas EMA9 dan di bawah EMA21/EMA50/VWAP pada frame 5m. Tren 1h turun (-1.26 ATR), searah posisi; rezim BTC trending_down. Level 1h: support terdekat newyork_low 0.7288 (+1.23%); resistance terdekat fvg_bear_bottom 0.7389 (-0.15%). Volatilitas ATR 0.32% dari harga; pola candle 5m terakhir: pin_down, doji.", "resistance": { "kind": "fvg_bear_bottom", "price": 0.7389, "distance_pct": -0.15176613885504656 }, "candle_patterns": { "1h": [], "5m": [ "pin_down", "doji" ] } }, "horizon_hours": 6.0, "roi_scenarios": { "usd_tp": { "roa_pct": 3.877406055201561, "rom_pct": 38.50059543126332, "exit_price": 0.7273594089367914, "r_multiple": 1.1877493365878482, "net_pnl_usd": 19.25001116417 }, "tp_hard": { "roa_pct": 8.246078913131964, "rom_pct": 81.87921089741572, "exit_price": 0.7167, "r_multiple": 2.5259863473376654, "net_pnl_usd": 40.938996039754585 }, "fee_note": "net = gross(fill exit ber-slippage per sisi) − fee entry − fee exit taker; funding di luar skenario (belum diketahui saat entry); usd_tp ter-cap di ambang dolar → net = ambang − fee entry; usd_tp_mode=trail: sentuh ambang TIDAK menutup — trailing USD di-arm, lantai awal usd_trail_floor = ambang × (1 − giveback) dan naik mengikuti peak uPnL bersih (exit reason usd_trail_stop)", "stop_loss": { "roa_pct": -3.2704796536507414, "rom_pct": -32.47413663123294, "exit_price": 0.7448, "r_multiple": -1.001832148515019, "net_pnl_usd": -16.236826617761835 }, "trail_floor": { "roa_pct": 1.0460166624065965, "rom_pct": 10.386393315616575, "exit_price": 0.7342679000000001, "r_multiple": 0.32042184366184107, "net_pnl_usd": 5.193119354167846 }, "usd_trail_floor": { "roa_pct": 2.6688646090276795, "rom_pct": 26.500416801884324, "exit_price": 0.7303082077850372, "r_multiple": 0.8175419658621823, "net_pnl_usd": 13.25001116417 } }, "snapshot_kind": "entry_snapshot", "thesis_version": 2, "breakeven_price": 0.7368201440617291, "expected_net_bps": 12.586227295728467, "funding_projection": { "note": "estimasi = rate saat entry × notional × settlement dalam max_hold; rate berubah tiap interval, interval riil simbol diinferensi dari history (fallback config)", "direction": "terima", "est_usd_paid": -0.06338155651599331, "horizon_hours": 6.0, "interval_hours": 8.0, "est_settlements": 0.75, "interval_source": "config_fallback", "funding_rate_at_entry": 5.634e-05 }, "utility_bps_per_day": 7.910874216442184 }, "funding_paid": -0.08138924217899998, "last_mark_at": "2026-08-29T00:05:32.191976+00:00", "notional_usd": 1499.9776716600002, "trail_peak_r": 0.7467656023015459, "working_type": "MARK_PRICE", "ambiguous_bar": false, "current_price": 0.745, "price_move_pct": -0.9819802309256387, "risk_modifiers": [ "risk_gates_bypassed" ], "unrealized_pnl": -14.681828339999864, "equity_at_entry": 496.4662171078525, "exit_mark_price": 0.7448, "last_funding_at": "2026-08-29T00:00:00+00:00", "usd_trail_armed": false, "barrier_evidence": { "series": "mark", "trigger": "stop_loss", "last_low": 0.7441, "mark_low": 0.74413317, "last_high": 0.7454, "mark_high": 0.7454, "fill_price": 0.7448, "bar_open_ms": 1787961780000, "both_touched": false }, "trail_r_distance": 0.0070213999999999555, "usd_peak_net_usd": null, "exit_shadow_state": { "ptp": { "at": null, "open": true, "r_mult": 0.8, "pnl_usd": null, "fraction": 0.75, "part_done": false, "realized_usd": 0.0 }, "tstop": { "at": null, "open": true, "min_r": 0.5, "minutes": 120.0, "pnl_usd": null }, "peak_r": 0.7467656023015459 }, "last_processed_ts": "2026-08-29T00:03:59.999000+00:00", "take_profit_price": 0.7167, "r_multiple_realized": -0.9968103322896121, "utility_bps_per_day": 7.910874216442184, "liquidation_estimate": 0.9687851575820435, "return_on_margin_pct": -32.31135572378997, "usd_tp_threshold_usd": 20.0, "return_on_account_pct": -3.2540859415764074, "usd_tp_trail_giveback": 0.3, "safe_leverage_suggested": 30 }, { "qty": 436.7, "side": "short", "event": "meta_close", "shadow": { "bars": 360, "last": { "at": "2026-08-29T09:13:59.999000+00:00", "price": 3.4484, "net_usd": -8.014325407605659 }, "complete": true, "max_adverse": { "at": "2026-08-29T09:05:00+00:00", "price": 3.4632, "net_usd": -14.482656905079768, "rom_pct": -28.96807848639847 }, "max_favorable": { "at": "2026-08-29T06:23:00+00:00", "price": 3.3467, "net_usd": 36.43360116625279, "rom_pct": 72.87415734857088 }, "vs_actual_usd": 26.135555645198934, "follow_minutes": 360, "checked_through": "2026-08-29T09:13:59.999000+00:00" }, "source": "live", "symbol": "LITUSDT", "net_pnl": 10.298045521053858, "exit_fee": 0.7440324177825, "leverage": 30, "risk_usd": 17.371705289107442, "strategy": "directional", "trade_id": "cf58cadeecb0402aafe36a1132e4636b", "closed_at": "2026-08-29T03:14:29.072426+00:00", "entry_fee": 0.7499284209623993, "gross_pnl": 11.792006359798757, "llm_judge": { "model": "claude-opus-5", "score": 46.0, "reasons": [ "Arah sejalan: tren 1h negatif, momentum_1h < 0, BTC trending_down; RSI 40 belum kapitulasi", "Entry bukan chasing — mark memantul ke konfluensi EMA fast 1h/EMA mid 5m, jual ke resistensi", "Bahan bakar lemah: volume_ratio 0.53, OI 1h flat +0.09%, taker 0.496 netral di bawah gerbang 0.52", "Perubahan sejak 21 menit lalu tidak memburuk (volume 0.28->0.53, OI 0.05->0.09), jadi anchor dipertahankan" ], "verdict": "approve", "key_risk": "ADX 20 + volume mengering: peluang chop/short-squeeze balik ke VWAP 5m 3.4554 sebelum leg turun berlanjut", "better_entry": 3.4553617135709493, "perubahan_material": { "alasan": [], "memburuk": false, "oi_1h_pct": { "dulu": 0.05, "kini": 0.09 }, "volume_ratio": { "dulu": 0.28, "kini": 0.53, "perubahan_pct": 88.1 }, "taker_ratio_4h": { "dulu": 0.496, "kini": 0.496 }, "harga_berubah_pct": 0.44 }, "better_entry_anchor": "vwap_5m" }, "opened_at": "2026-08-29T02:09:24.951286+00:00", "risk_tier": "fixed_margin", "tick_size": 0.0001, "confidence": 0.7637583704222969, "exit_price": 3.4075219499999996, "margin_usd": 49.99522806415995, "paper_only": true, "stop_price": 3.4065, "entry_price": 3.434524483455, "exit_policy": "trail", "exit_shadow": { "ptp_mode": "partial_lalu_exit_nyata", "ptp_pnl_usd": 10.3623, "real_net_usd": 10.298, "tstop_pnl_usd": 10.298, "tstop_triggered": false }, "sizing_mode": "fixed_margin", "trail_armed": true, "usd_tp_mode": "trail", "close_reason": "trail_stop", "entry_thesis": { "setup": { "side": "short", "score": -0.6429731284010547, "strategy": "directional", "btc_regime": "trending_down", "confidence": 0.7637583704222969, "score_note": "komponen skor ChartSkill yang sudah dihitung saat entry; mom_z tidak tersedia di jalur meta (null)", "gross_edge_bps": 27.622486749747992, "confidence_tier": "fixed_margin", "score_breakdown": { "adx": 20.030787450429187, "rsi": 40.117362588888746, "mom_z": null, "atr_pct": 0.0034368449354565817, "momentum_1h": -0.006756756756756688, "trend_1h_atr": -0.35766941236175565, "trend_5m_atr": -0.8342706413673074, "volume_ratio": 0.527241051025753, "vwap_position": -0.008757900352977892 }, "funding_edge_bps": 0.37500000000000006, "round_trip_cost_bps": 16.0 }, "action": "short", "levels": { "stop": 3.4698, "entry": 3.434524483455, "take_profit": 3.3286, "mark_at_entry": 3.43555515 }, "reason": "selected short utility=6.80 bps/day (news x0.96)", "symbol": "LITUSDT", "vetoes": [], "filters": [ { "name": "session_window", "pass": true, "value": { "hour_utc": 2, "window_utc": null } }, { "name": "btc_gate", "pass": true, "value": { "applies": true, "btc_return_7d": -0.0005847750286925857 } }, { "name": "funding_extreme", "pass": true, "value": { "notes": null, "pctile": 97.5, "pctile_hi": 0.00044861899999999993, "pctile_lo": -0.000304796, "funding_rate": 5e-05 } }, { "name": "vol_target", "pass": true, "value": { "vol_scale": 1.0, "realized_vol_daily_pct": 1.9762018669417398 } }, { "name": "taker_flow_gate", "pass": true, "value": { "min_ratio": 0.52, "taker_ratio_4h": 0.4964458537359034 } }, { "name": "freshness_gate", "pass": true, "value": { "atr_1h": 0.09115714285714287, "dist_low_atr": -1.3350572010656652, "made_new_low": false, "dist_high_atr": -1.4634069895000779, "made_new_high": false, "max_atr_above": 1.0 } }, { "name": "exhaustion", "pass": true, "value": { "notes": null, "enabled": true, "max_pct": 40.0, "move_24h_pct": -6.775694576723179 } }, { "name": "overextended", "pass": true, "value": { "price": 3.4251, "enabled": true, "max_pct": 40.0, "ema50_1h": 3.4660767070671583, "ema_source": "chart_skill_1h", "dist_ema50_pct": -1.1822215874105924 } }, { "name": "atr_band", "pass": true, "value": { "enabled": true, "dead_pct": 1.2, "atr_pct_1h": 2.3477928720839314, "extreme_pct": 15.0 } }, { "name": "oi_crowd", "pass": true, "value": { "note": null, "enabled": true, "max_pct": 8.0, "oi_change_1h_pct": 0.08513053013992078 } }, { "name": "crowd_positioning", "pass": true, "value": { "note": null, "side": "short", "enabled": false, "ls_ratio": null, "threshold": 1.5, "delta_block": 0.3, "ls_delta_1h": null } }, { "name": "stop_truncated", "pass": true, "value": { "atr_pct": 0.0034368449354565817, "cap_pct": 0.02, "enabled": true, "ratio_3atr_vs_cap": 0.5155267403184872 } }, { "name": "plateau", "pass": true, "value": { "count": 0, "enabled": false, "conditions": null, "min_conditions": null } }, { "name": "universe", "pass": true, "value": { "rank": 37, "size": 47, "quote_volume_24h": 66914806.50405 } }, { "name": "regime", "pass": true, "value": { "note": null, "btc_regime": "trending_down", "choppy_no_trade": false } }, { "name": "symbol_recent_loss", "pass": true, "value": { "enabled": true, "block_hours": 24.0, "block_until": null, "manual_exempt": null } }, { "name": "news", "pass": true, "value": { "reason": "No transmission channel to LIT (Litentry) in any item. The $700K bridge exploit is confined to The Sandbox/SAND infrastructure, not a chain, bridge, custodian, or venue LIT depends on. The Kalshi suit targets a US prediction-market operator", "binding": false, "decision": "allow", "risk_score": 8, "unavailable": false } }, { "name": "portfolio_heat", "pass": true, "value": { "cap_usd": 6.0, "risk_usd": 17.371705289107442, "open_risk_after_usd": 17.371705289107442, "open_risk_before_usd": 0.0 } }, { "name": "correlated_side", "pass": true, "value": { "cap": 3, "applies": true, "same_side_alt_count": 0 } } ], "expected": { "horizon_hours": 6.0, "expected_net_bps": 11.997486749747992, "utility_bps_per_day": 6.803203680847882 }, "strategy": "directional", "exit_plan": { "tp_hard_r": 3.0, "stop_price": 3.4698, "exit_policy": "trail", "trail_arm_r": 1.0, "usd_tp_mode": "trail", "tp_hard_price": 3.3286, "usd_tp_r_mult": 2.0, "usd_tp_abs_usd": 20.0, "trail_arm_price": 3.39924896691, "daily_guardrails": { "loss_limit_usd": 100.0, "profit_target_usd": 100.0, "profit_floor_fraction": 0.5, "protect_profit_at_usd": 0.0 }, "trail_distance_r": 0.5, "time_stop_minutes": 360.0, "usd_trail_floor_usd": 14.0, "trail_distance_price": 0.017637758272500026, "usd_tp_threshold_usd": 20.0, "usd_tp_trail_giveback": 0.3 }, "risk_plan": { "qty": 436.7, "leverage": 30, "risk_usd": 17.371705289107442, "risk_tier": "fixed_margin", "margin_usd": 49.99522806415995, "notional_usd": 1499.8568419247986, "entry_fee_usd": 0.7499284209623993, "stop_distance": { "pct": 1.0270858954400066, "price": 0.03527551654500005 }, "risk_modifiers": [ "risk_gates_bypassed" ], "leverage_reason": "safe_leverage: min(cap config 30x, floor(1/(stop_pct×2+0.005))) — estimasi likuidasi >= 2× jarak stop", "est_exit_fee_usd": 0.7499284209623993, "entry_slippage_usd": 0.4500920802013801, "liquidation_estimate": 4.473188606222541 }, "confidence": 0.7637583704222969, "data_as_of": "2026-08-29T02:00:00+00:00", "assessments": { "news": { "model": "claude-opus-5", "usage": { "metering": { "unit": "credit", "usage": 0.25443519973466, "unitPlural": "credits" }, "context_usage_pct": 0.8909000158309937 }, "reason": "No transmission channel to LIT (Litentry) in any item. The $700K bridge exploit is confined to The Sandbox/SAND infrastructure, not a chain, bridge, custodian, or venue LIT depends on. The Kalshi suit targets a US prediction-market operator (SUI tag appears incidental) with no LIT nexus. The Ledger item is an explicit non-event: an Ethereum app vulnerability patched before exploitation, no LIT wallet or bridge exposure. All three were routed by systemic_keyword matching and are irrelevant to this symbol; scored low accordingly. No hack, delisting, depeg, insolvency, chain halt, or withdrawal freeze touching LIT is evidenced. Confidence is capped because coverage is headline-only, small-cap tagging may miss LIT-specific news, and one feed (oxylabs) failed, so absence of LIT-specific risk is", "symbol": "LITUSDT", "decision": "allow", "evidence": [ { "id": "rss-c9a9253dbc95eb4a", "url": "https://cointelegraph.com/news/the-sandbox-compensation-sand-bridge-exploit?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound", "title": "The Sandbox pledges 1:1 repayment after $700K bridge exploit", "source": "cointelegraph", "tokens": [], "age_text": "20h", "age_hours": 20.0, "matched_by": "systemic_keyword", "published_at": "2026-08-28T05:40:48+00:00" }, { "id": "rss-dce9a2ba9164478b", "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/news-analysis/2026/08/27/connecticut-s-new-lawsuit-against-kalshi-piles-on-to-prediction-market-legal-fight", "title": "Connecticut's new lawsuit against Kalshi piles on to prediction market legal fight", "source": "coindesk", "tokens": [ "SUI" ], "age_text": "1d", "age_hours": 24.0, "matched_by": "systemic_keyword", "published_at": "2026-08-27T18:28:53+00:00" }, { "id": "rss-68aa705bc6aa47e8", "url": "https://decrypt.co/376750/no-ledger-wasnt-hacked-ethereum-app-exploit", "title": "No, Ledger Wasn’t Hacked: Vulnerable Ethereum App Was Patched Before Exploit, Company Says", "source": "decrypt", "tokens": [ "ETH" ], "age_text": "1d", "age_hours": 24.0, "matched_by": "systemic_keyword", "published_at": "2026-08-27T18:16:03+00:00" } ], "categories": [ "unknown" ], "confidence": 0.7, "risk_score": 8, "observed_at": "2026-08-29T02:09:35.581345+00:00", "unavailable": false, "corpus_count": 80, "evidence_ids": [ "rss-c9a9253dbc95eb4a", "rss-dce9a2ba9164478b", "rss-68aa705bc6aa47e8" ], "evidence_hash": "39a8e67a9972067dbe08b4387817965cf02c4b768d3b7314e1fa262a1a179046", "evidence_count": 3, "freshness_hours": 20.0, "agent_routed_count": 0 }, "carry": { "score": 0.0, "skill": "carry", "action": "no_trade", "symbol": "LITUSDT", "vetoes": [ "carry_data_quality" ], "factors": {}, "reasons": [ "insufficient_carry_history" ], "eligible": false, "metadata": {}, "confidence": 0.0, "data_as_of": "2026-08-29T02:09:24.951286+00:00", "horizon_hours": 24.0, "expected_net_bps": 0.0 }, "directional": { "score": -0.6429731284010547, "skill": "directional", "action": "short", "symbol": "LITUSDT", "vetoes": [], "factors": { "adx": 20.030787450429187, "rsi": 40.117362588888746, "flow_z": null, "atr_pct": 0.0034368449354565817, "flow_term": 0.0, "kyle_lambda": null, "momentum_1h": -0.006756756756756688, "trend_1h_atr": -0.35766941236175565, "trend_5m_atr": -0.8342706413673074, "volume_ratio": 0.527241051025753, "vwap_position": -0.008757900352977892, "gross_edge_bps": 27.622486749747992, "taker_imbalance": null, "funding_edge_bps": 0.37500000000000006, "round_trip_cost_bps": 16.0 }, "reasons": [ "short structure score -0.643", "1h trend aligned; BTC trending_down", "directional net EV +12.0 bps" ], "eligible": true, "metadata": { "atr": 0.011771537588432338, "frames": { "1h": { "vwap": null, "close": 3.4259, "ema_mid": 3.4576933378860693, "ema_fast": 3.437308270344877, "ema_slow": 3.4660767070671583 }, "5m": { "vwap": 3.4553617135709493, "close": 3.4251, "ema_mid": 3.437862165873265, "ema_fast": 3.4292845124971816, "ema_slow": 3.4391051607109624 } }, "btc_regime": "trending_down", "mark_price": 3.43555515, "ema_periods": { "mid": 21, "fast": 9, "slow": 50 }, "candle_price": 3.4251, "funding_rate": 5e-05, "orderflow_enabled": false }, "confidence": 0.7637583704222969, "data_as_of": "2026-08-29T02:00:00+00:00", "horizon_hours": 6.0, "expected_net_bps": 11.997486749747992 }, "performance_carry": { "score": 0.0, "skill": "performance", "action": "allow", "symbol": "LITUSDT", "vetoes": [], "factors": { "wins": 0.0, "losses": 0.0, "samples": 0.0, "expectancy_usd": 0.0, "minimum_samples": 8.0, "sample_maturity": 0.0, "posterior_win_rate": 0.5, "win_rate_lower_bound": 0.3210613300064863 }, "reasons": [ "shrunk win rate 50.0%; lower bound 32.1%; n=0/8 minimum" ], "eligible": true, "metadata": {}, "confidence": 0.15, "data_as_of": "2026-08-29T02:09:24.951286+00:00", "horizon_hours": 24.0, "expected_net_bps": 0.0 }, "performance_directional": { "score": 0.0, "skill": "performance", "action": "allow", "symbol": "LITUSDT", "vetoes": [], "factors": { "wins": 0.0, "losses": 0.0, "samples": 0.0, "expectancy_usd": 0.0, "minimum_samples": 8.0, "sample_maturity": 0.0, "posterior_win_rate": 0.5, "win_rate_lower_bound": 0.3210613300064863 }, "reasons": [ "shrunk win rate 50.0%; lower bound 32.1%; n=0/8 minimum" ], "eligible": true, "metadata": {}, "confidence": 0.15, "data_as_of": "2026-08-29T02:09:24.951286+00:00", "horizon_hours": 24.0, "expected_net_bps": 0.0 } }, "captured_at": "2026-08-29T02:09:24.951286+00:00", "chart_setup": { "notes": [], "swing": { "low": { "price": 3.4177, "formed_at": "2026-08-29T01:45:00+00:00", "distance_pct": 0.49227502282237195 }, "high": { "price": 3.4383, "formed_at": "2026-08-29T01:50:00+00:00", "distance_pct": -0.10980765334612297 } }, "atr_pct": 0.0034368449354565817, "support": { "kind": "fvg_bear_bottom", "price": 3.4333, "distance_pct": 0.035664912911780124 }, "ema_vwap": { "1h": [ { "name": "EMA9", "value": 3.437308270344877, "relation": "di_bawah", "distance_pct": -0.08098740848744086 }, { "name": "EMA21", "value": 3.4576933378860693, "relation": "di_bawah", "distance_pct": -0.6700667805674703 }, { "name": "EMA50", "value": 3.4660767070671583, "relation": "di_bawah", "distance_pct": -0.9103152145428499 } ], "5m": [ { "name": "EMA9", "value": 3.4292845124971816, "relation": "di_atas", "distance_pct": 0.15280070634917586 }, { "name": "EMA21", "value": 3.437862165873265, "relation": "di_bawah", "distance_pct": -0.09708598708223345 }, { "name": "EMA50", "value": 3.4391051607109624, "relation": "di_bawah", "distance_pct": -0.13319386997213167 }, { "name": "VWAP", "value": 3.4553617135709493, "relation": "di_bawah", "distance_pct": -0.6030404873131185 } ] }, "narrative": "Entry SHORT LITUSDT di 3.43452, di atas EMA9 dan di bawah EMA21/EMA50/VWAP pada frame 5m. Tren 1h turun (-0.36 ATR), searah posisi; rezim BTC trending_down. Level 1h: support terdekat fvg_bear_bottom 3.4333 (+0.04%); resistance terdekat fvg_bull_top 3.4365 (-0.06%). Volatilitas ATR 0.34% dari harga; pola candle 5m terakhir: doji, inside_bar.", "resistance": { "kind": "fvg_bull_top", "price": 3.4365, "distance_pct": -0.057486295504145045 }, "candle_patterns": { "1h": [], "5m": [ "doji", "inside_bar" ] } }, "horizon_hours": 6.0, "roi_scenarios": { "usd_tp": { "roa_pct": 4.06231954009977, "rom_pct": 38.50381791304876, "exit_price": 3.38601713116282, "r_multiple": 1.1081279159800133, "net_pnl_usd": 19.250071579037602 }, "tp_hard": { "roa_pct": 9.357902500169727, "rom_pct": 88.69685664996942, "exit_price": 3.3286, "r_multiple": 2.552667975302247, "net_pnl_usd": 44.34419576789323 }, "fee_note": "net = gross(fill exit ber-slippage per sisi) − fee entry − fee exit taker; funding di luar skenario (belum diketahui saat entry); usd_tp ter-cap di ambang dolar → net = ambang − fee entry; usd_tp_mode=trail: sentuh ambang TIDAK menutup — trailing USD di-arm, lantai awal usd_trail_floor = ambang × (1 − giveback) dan naik mengikuti peak uPnL bersih (exit reason usd_trail_stop)", "stop_loss": { "roa_pct": -3.6649758432552715, "rom_pct": -34.737681546577086, "exit_price": 3.4698, "r_multiple": -0.9997396815327361, "net_pnl_usd": -17.36718311341282 }, "trail_floor": { "roa_pct": 1.2152163713375954, "rom_pct": 11.51816577328859, "exit_price": 3.4168867251825, "r_multiple": 0.3314892321351094, "net_pnl_usd": 5.758533247163644 }, "usd_trail_floor": { "roa_pct": 2.7961467292339317, "rom_pct": 26.50267253913413, "exit_price": 3.3997455555694356, "r_multiple": 0.762738681005933, "net_pnl_usd": 13.2500715790376 } }, "snapshot_kind": "entry_snapshot", "thesis_version": 2, "breakeven_price": 3.430062656578612, "expected_net_bps": 11.997486749747992, "funding_projection": { "note": "estimasi = rate saat entry × notional × settlement dalam max_hold; rate berubah tiap interval, interval riil simbol diinferensi dari history (fallback config)", "direction": "terima", "est_usd_paid": -0.05624463157217995, "horizon_hours": 6.0, "interval_hours": 8.0, "est_settlements": 0.75, "interval_source": "config_fallback", "funding_rate_at_entry": 5e-05 }, "utility_bps_per_day": 6.803203680847882 }, "funding_paid": 0.0, "last_mark_at": "2026-08-29T03:14:29.072426+00:00", "notional_usd": 1499.8568419247986, "trail_peak_r": 1.2958019593189862, "working_type": "MARK_PRICE", "ambiguous_bar": false, "current_price": 3.3971, "price_move_pct": 0.7862087920781691, "risk_modifiers": [ "risk_gates_bypassed" ], "unrealized_pnl": 16.343271924798568, "equity_at_entry": 473.8689654769212, "exit_mark_price": 3.4065, "usd_trail_armed": false, "barrier_evidence": { "series": "mark", "trigger": "trail_stop", "last_low": 3.3933, "mark_low": 3.3932, "last_high": 3.4081, "mark_high": 3.40678306, "fill_price": 3.4065, "bar_open_ms": 1787973000000, "both_touched": false }, "trail_r_distance": 0.03527551654500005, "usd_peak_net_usd": null, "exit_shadow_state": { "ptp": { "at": null, "open": true, "r_mult": 0.8, "pnl_usd": null, "fraction": 0.75, "part_done": true, "realized_usd": 8.350203705181148 }, "tstop": { "at": null, "open": true, "min_r": 0.5, "minutes": 120.0, "pnl_usd": null }, "peak_r": 1.2958019593189862 }, "last_processed_ts": "2026-08-29T03:10:59.999000+00:00", "take_profit_price": 3.3286, "r_multiple_realized": 0.592805677374174, "utility_bps_per_day": 6.803203680847882, "liquidation_estimate": 4.418139717639816, "return_on_margin_pct": 20.598056894226293, "usd_tp_threshold_usd": 20.0, "return_on_account_pct": 2.1731842073028527, "usd_tp_trail_giveback": 0.3, "safe_leverage_suggested": 30 }, { "qty": 2454.0, "side": "short", "event": "meta_close", "shadow": { "bars": 360, "last": { "at": "2026-08-29T11:31:59.999000+00:00", "price": 0.63531527, "net_usd": -61.56393013342677 }, "complete": true, "max_adverse": { "at": "2026-08-29T11:10:00+00:00", "price": 0.64079474, "net_usd": -75.02130882592375, "rom_pct": -150.09295124979835 }, "max_favorable": { "at": "2026-08-29T06:21:00+00:00", "price": 0.61084398, "net_usd": -1.4633334290168813, "rom_pct": -2.927648643577588 }, "vs_actual_usd": 28.626760469045163, "follow_minutes": 360, "checked_through": "2026-08-29T11:31:59.999000+00:00" }, "source": "live", "symbol": "CYSUSDT", "net_pnl": -30.090093898062044, "exit_fee": 0.7640366422500001, "leverage": 30, "risk_usd": 29.989939514641087, "strategy": "directional", "trade_id": "45d5b23c34d04f828c662c27623279c6", "closed_at": "2026-08-29T05:32:54.224193+00:00", "entry_fee": 0.7497484878660271, "gross_pnl": -28.576308767946013, "llm_judge": { "model": "claude-opus-5", "score": 47.0, "reasons": [ "Arah sehat: trend 1h -2.52 ATR, ADX 26.7, harga di bawah semua EMA 5m/1h, BTC trending_down, RSI 44 belum oversold", "Lokasi bukan chasing: harga 1.05% di atas VWAP 5m, menjual pantulan di bawah kluster EMA 5m; volume 1.46x dan momentum 1h masih negatif (bukan plateau distribusi)", "Konfirmasi flow lemah: taker 4h 0.513 masih net beli (gagal gate 0.52), OI 1h cuma +0.84%; funding p97.5 satu-satunya bahan bakar (long padat, short dibayar)", "Sudah -23.2% dalam 24 jam dan -12.7% di bawah EMA50 1h, ATR 1h 5.1% dan likuiditas tipis (rank 35) - isi lebih baik di kluster EMA 5m daripada market sekarang" ], "verdict": "approve", "key_risk": "Pantulan mean-reversion/short squeeze pasca dump -23% 24h karena agresor taker masih net beli dan OI hampir flat, diperburuk likuiditas tipis $67.6M", "better_entry": 0.6164945906428053, "perubahan_material": null, "better_entry_anchor": "ema_mid_5m" }, "opened_at": "2026-08-29T05:08:46.592148+00:00", "risk_tier": "fixed_margin", "tick_size": 0.0001, "confidence": 0.6506857385636378, "exit_price": 0.6226867500000001, "margin_usd": 49.98323252440181, "paper_only": true, "stop_price": 0.6225, "entry_price": 0.6110419624010001, "exit_policy": "trail", "exit_shadow": { "ptp_mode": "tanpa_partial", "ptp_pnl_usd": -30.0901, "real_net_usd": -30.0901, "tstop_pnl_usd": -30.0901, "tstop_triggered": false }, "sizing_mode": "fixed_margin", "trail_armed": false, "usd_tp_mode": "trail", "close_reason": "stop_loss", "entry_thesis": { "setup": { "side": "short", "score": -0.38901249379154595, "strategy": "directional", "btc_regime": "trending_down", "confidence": 0.6506857385636378, "score_note": "komponen skor ChartSkill yang sudah dihitung saat entry; mom_z tidak tersedia di jalur meta (null)", "gross_edge_bps": 48.26020614829355, "confidence_tier": "fixed_margin", "score_breakdown": { "adx": 26.68221674457188, "rsi": 44.29652810292016, "mom_z": null, "atr_pct": 0.009924659370792135, "momentum_1h": -0.01750722775457758, "trend_1h_atr": -2.5208366873580093, "trend_5m_atr": 0.21322316436437155, "volume_ratio": 1.4611257329003147, "vwap_position": 0.010532021342876816 }, "funding_edge_bps": 0.37500000000000006, "round_trip_cost_bps": 16.0 }, "action": "short", "levels": { "stop": 0.6225, "entry": 0.6110419624010001, "take_profit": 0.5768, "mark_at_entry": 0.61122533 }, "reason": "selected short utility=15.85 bps/day (news x0.96)", "symbol": "CYSUSDT", "vetoes": [], "filters": [ { "name": "session_window", "pass": true, "value": { "hour_utc": 5, "window_utc": null } }, { "name": "btc_gate", "pass": true, "value": { "applies": true, "btc_return_7d": -0.010625429395576758 } }, { "name": "funding_extreme", "pass": true, "value": { "notes": null, "pctile": 97.5, "pctile_hi": 0.00028348099999999987, "pctile_lo": -0.000209341, "funding_rate": 5e-05 } }, { "name": "vol_target", "pass": true, "value": { "vol_scale": 1.0, "realized_vol_daily_pct": 1.8377061432361514 } }, { "name": "taker_flow_gate", "pass": true, "value": { "min_ratio": 0.52, "taker_ratio_4h": 0.5131630913290848 } }, { "name": "freshness_gate", "pass": true, "value": { "atr_1h": 0.02989285714285716, "dist_low_atr": -1.5221027479091982, "made_new_low": false, "dist_high_atr": -8.092234169653521, "made_new_high": false, "max_atr_above": 1.0 } }, { "name": "exhaustion", "pass": true, "value": { "notes": null, "enabled": true, "max_pct": 40.0, "move_24h_pct": -23.19870356519572 } }, { "name": "overextended", "pass": true, "value": { "price": 0.6117, "enabled": true, "max_pct": 40.0, "ema50_1h": 0.7003255511377072, "ema_source": "chart_skill_1h", "dist_ema50_pct": -12.65490756316564 } }, { "name": "atr_band", "pass": true, "value": { "enabled": true, "dead_pct": 1.2, "atr_pct_1h": 5.0880760962697416, "extreme_pct": 15.0 } }, { "name": "oi_crowd", "pass": true, "value": { "note": null, "enabled": true, "max_pct": 8.0, "oi_change_1h_pct": 0.8355772643953152 } }, { "name": "crowd_positioning", "pass": true, "value": { "note": null, "side": "short", "enabled": false, "ls_ratio": null, "threshold": 1.5, "delta_block": 0.3, "ls_delta_1h": null } }, { "name": "stop_truncated", "pass": true, "value": { "atr_pct": 0.009924659370792135, "cap_pct": 0.02, "enabled": true, "ratio_3atr_vs_cap": 1.4886989056188202 } }, { "name": "plateau", "pass": true, "value": { "count": 0, "enabled": false, "conditions": null, "min_conditions": null } }, { "name": "universe", "pass": true, "value": { "rank": 35, "size": 45, "quote_volume_24h": 67600096.4776 } }, { "name": "regime", "pass": true, "value": { "note": null, "btc_regime": "trending_down", "choppy_no_trade": false } }, { "name": "symbol_recent_loss", "pass": true, "value": { "enabled": true, "block_hours": 24.0, "block_until": null, "manual_exempt": null } }, { "name": "news", "pass": true, "value": { "reason": "None of the three routed items transmit to CYS. The $700K bridge exploit is scoped to The Sandbox/SAND with 1:1 repayment pledged and no shared bridge, chain, or custodian link to CYS. The Kalshi suit targets a US prediction-market operator", "binding": false, "decision": "allow", "risk_score": 8, "unavailable": false } }, { "name": "portfolio_heat", "pass": true, "value": { "cap_usd": 6.0, "risk_usd": 29.989939514641087, "open_risk_after_usd": 76.04245272448412, "open_risk_before_usd": 46.05251320984303 } }, { "name": "correlated_side", "pass": true, "value": { "cap": 3, "applies": true, "same_side_alt_count": 2 } } ], "expected": { "horizon_hours": 6.0, "expected_net_bps": 32.63520614829355, "utility_bps_per_day": 15.845116353717788 }, "strategy": "directional", "exit_plan": { "tp_hard_r": 3.0, "stop_price": 0.6225, "exit_policy": "trail", "trail_arm_r": 1.0, "usd_tp_mode": "trail", "tp_hard_price": 0.5768, "usd_tp_r_mult": 2.0, "usd_tp_abs_usd": 20.0, "trail_arm_price": 0.5995839248020001, "daily_guardrails": { "loss_limit_usd": 100.0, "profit_target_usd": 100.0, "profit_floor_fraction": 0.5, "protect_profit_at_usd": 0.0 }, "trail_distance_r": 0.5, "time_stop_minutes": 360.0, "usd_trail_floor_usd": 14.0, "trail_distance_price": 0.005729018799499996, "usd_tp_threshold_usd": 20.0, "usd_tp_trail_giveback": 0.3 }, "risk_plan": { "qty": 2454.0, "leverage": 30, "risk_usd": 29.989939514641087, "risk_tier": "fixed_margin", "margin_usd": 49.98323252440181, "notional_usd": 1499.4969757320541, "entry_fee_usd": 0.7497484878660271, "stop_distance": { "pct": 1.8751637864570396, "price": 0.011458037598999993 }, "risk_modifiers": [ "risk_gates_bypassed", "stop_capped_30usd" ], "leverage_reason": "safe_leverage: min(cap config 30x, floor(1/(stop_pct×2+0.005))) — estimasi likuidasi >= 2× jarak stop", "est_exit_fee_usd": 0.7497484878660271, "entry_slippage_usd": 0.44998408794587874, "liquidation_estimate": 0.778983592838821 }, "confidence": 0.6506857385636378, "data_as_of": "2026-08-29T05:00:00+00:00", "assessments": { "news": { "model": "claude-opus-5", "usage": { "metering": { "unit": "credit", "usage": 0.25031016361525704, "unitPlural": "credits" }, "context_usage_pct": 0.8892999887466431 }, "reason": "None of the three routed items transmit to CYS. The $700K bridge exploit is scoped to The Sandbox/SAND with 1:1 repayment pledged and no shared bridge, chain, or custodian link to CYS. The Kalshi suit targets a US prediction-market operator (SUI tag appears spurious) with no venue, issuer, or counterparty overlap. The Ledger item is an explicit denial: an Ethereum app vulnerability was patched pre-exploit, so no wallet or custody impact. No hack, delisting, depeg, insolvency, chain halt, or withdrawal freeze touching CYS or its infrastructure. Confidence is capped because coverage is headline-level RSS only, one feed failed, and small-cap tagging may miss CYS-specific news.", "symbol": "CYSUSDT", "decision": "allow", "evidence": [ { "id": "rss-c9a9253dbc95eb4a", "url": "https://cointelegraph.com/news/the-sandbox-compensation-sand-bridge-exploit?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound", "title": "The Sandbox pledges 1:1 repayment after $700K bridge exploit", "source": "cointelegraph", "tokens": [], "age_text": "23h", "age_hours": 23.0, "matched_by": "systemic_keyword", "published_at": "2026-08-28T05:40:48+00:00" }, { "id": "rss-dce9a2ba9164478b", "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/news-analysis/2026/08/27/connecticut-s-new-lawsuit-against-kalshi-piles-on-to-prediction-market-legal-fight", "title": "Connecticut's new lawsuit against Kalshi piles on to prediction market legal fight", "source": "coindesk", "tokens": [ "SUI" ], "age_text": "1d", "age_hours": 24.0, "matched_by": "systemic_keyword", "published_at": "2026-08-27T18:28:53+00:00" }, { "id": "rss-68aa705bc6aa47e8", "url": "https://decrypt.co/376750/no-ledger-wasnt-hacked-ethereum-app-exploit", "title": "No, Ledger Wasn’t Hacked: Vulnerable Ethereum App Was Patched Before Exploit, Company Says", "source": "decrypt", "tokens": [ "ETH" ], "age_text": "1d", "age_hours": 24.0, "matched_by": "systemic_keyword", "published_at": "2026-08-27T18:16:03+00:00" } ], "categories": [ "unknown" ], "confidence": 0.62, "risk_score": 8, "observed_at": "2026-08-29T05:08:56.469820+00:00", "unavailable": false, "corpus_count": 80, "evidence_ids": [ "rss-c9a9253dbc95eb4a", "rss-dce9a2ba9164478b", "rss-68aa705bc6aa47e8" ], "evidence_hash": "0c695d2df67cdf953fd6f68d2e08ed88ee24d63fc510af2ab0a06a24cfe2098c", "evidence_count": 3, "freshness_hours": 23.0, "agent_routed_count": 0 }, "carry": { "score": 0, "skill": "carry", "action": "no_trade", "symbol": "CYSUSDT", "vetoes": [ "carry_data_quality" ], "factors": {}, "reasons": [ "spot_source_unavailable" ], "eligible": false, "metadata": {}, "confidence": 0, "data_as_of": "2026-08-29T05:08:46.592148+00:00", "horizon_hours": 24, "expected_net_bps": 0 }, "directional": { "score": -0.38901249379154595, "skill": "directional", "action": "short", "symbol": "CYSUSDT", "vetoes": [], "factors": { "adx": 26.68221674457188, "rsi": 44.29652810292016, "flow_z": null, "atr_pct": 0.009924659370792135, "flow_term": 0.0, "kyle_lambda": null, "momentum_1h": -0.01750722775457758, "trend_1h_atr": -2.5208366873580093, "trend_5m_atr": 0.21322316436437155, "volume_ratio": 1.4611257329003147, "vwap_position": 0.010532021342876816, "gross_edge_bps": 48.26020614829355, "taker_imbalance": null, "funding_edge_bps": 0.37500000000000006, "round_trip_cost_bps": 16.0 }, "reasons": [ "short structure score -0.389", "1h trend aligned; BTC trending_down", "directional net EV +32.6 bps" ], "eligible": true, "metadata": { "atr": 0.006070914137113549, "frames": { "1h": { "vwap": null, "close": 0.6161, "ema_mid": 0.6565456167521636, "ema_fast": 0.6213032781568918, "ema_slow": 0.7003255511377072 }, "5m": { "vwap": 0.6053247072637278, "close": 0.6117, "ema_mid": 0.6164945906428053, "ema_fast": 0.6157947935659794, "ema_slow": 0.6145003340430797 } }, "btc_regime": "trending_down", "mark_price": 0.61122533, "ema_periods": { "mid": 21, "fast": 9, "slow": 50 }, "candle_price": 0.6117, "funding_rate": 5e-05, "orderflow_enabled": false }, "confidence": 0.6506857385636378, "data_as_of": "2026-08-29T05:00:00+00:00", "horizon_hours": 6.0, "expected_net_bps": 32.63520614829355 }, "performance_carry": { "score": 0.0, "skill": "performance", "action": "allow", "symbol": "CYSUSDT", "vetoes": [], "factors": { "wins": 0.0, "losses": 0.0, "samples": 0.0, "expectancy_usd": 0.0, "minimum_samples": 8.0, "sample_maturity": 0.0, "posterior_win_rate": 0.5, "win_rate_lower_bound": 0.3210613300064863 }, "reasons": [ "shrunk win rate 50.0%; lower bound 32.1%; n=0/8 minimum" ], "eligible": true, "metadata": {}, "confidence": 0.15, "data_as_of": "2026-08-29T05:08:46.592148+00:00", "horizon_hours": 24.0, "expected_net_bps": 0.0 }, "performance_directional": { "score": 0.0, "skill": "performance", "action": "allow", "symbol": "CYSUSDT", "vetoes": [], "factors": { "wins": 0.0, "losses": 0.0, "samples": 0.0, "expectancy_usd": 0.0, "minimum_samples": 8.0, "sample_maturity": 0.0, "posterior_win_rate": 0.5, "win_rate_lower_bound": 0.3210613300064863 }, "reasons": [ "shrunk win rate 50.0%; lower bound 32.1%; n=0/8 minimum" ], "eligible": true, "metadata": {}, "confidence": 0.15, "data_as_of": "2026-08-29T05:08:46.592148+00:00", "horizon_hours": 24.0, "expected_net_bps": 0.0 } }, "captured_at": "2026-08-29T05:08:46.592148+00:00", "chart_setup": { "notes": [], "swing": { "low": { "price": 0.6124, "formed_at": "2026-08-29T04:20:00+00:00", "distance_pct": -0.22175662949052824 }, "high": { "price": 0.6236, "formed_at": "2026-08-29T04:45:00+00:00", "distance_pct": -2.013796920942909 } }, "atr_pct": 0.009924659370792135, "support": { "kind": "fvg_bear_bottom", "price": 0.6101, "distance_pct": 0.15439475512212505 }, "ema_vwap": { "1h": [ { "name": "EMA9", "value": 0.6213032781568918, "relation": "di_bawah", "distance_pct": -1.6515792072322752 }, { "name": "EMA21", "value": 0.6565456167521636, "relation": "di_bawah", "distance_pct": -6.930768127927432 }, { "name": "EMA50", "value": 0.7003255511377072, "relation": "di_bawah", "distance_pct": -12.748869235409495 } ], "5m": [ { "name": "EMA9", "value": 0.6157947935659794, "relation": "di_bawah", "distance_pct": -0.771820615347592 }, { "name": "EMA21", "value": 0.6164945906428053, "relation": "di_bawah", "distance_pct": -0.8844567859257163 }, { "name": "EMA50", "value": 0.6145003340430797, "relation": "di_bawah", "distance_pct": -0.5627941028649103 }, { "name": "VWAP", "value": 0.6053247072637278, "relation": "di_atas", "distance_pct": 0.9444939333661443 } ] }, "narrative": "Entry SHORT CYSUSDT di 0.611042, di atas VWAP dan di bawah EMA9/EMA21/EMA50 pada frame 5m. Tren 1h turun (-2.52 ATR), searah posisi; rezim BTC trending_down. Level 1h: support terdekat fvg_bear_bottom 0.6101 (+0.15%); resistance terdekat fvg_bull_bottom 0.6114 (-0.06%). Volatilitas ATR 0.99% dari harga; pola candle 5m terakhir: tweezer_top.", "resistance": { "kind": "fvg_bull_bottom", "price": 0.6114, "distance_pct": -0.05856028770035884 }, "candle_patterns": { "1h": [ "inside_bar" ], "5m": [ "tweezer_top" ] } }, "horizon_hours": 6.0, "roi_scenarios": { "usd_tp": { "roa_pct": 4.164938376787202, "rom_pct": 38.51341848035939, "exit_price": 0.6024099848014575, "r_multiple": 0.6418903080059898, "net_pnl_usd": 19.25025151213397 }, "tp_hard": { "roa_pct": 17.773223900145073, "rom_pct": 164.34999701950832, "exit_price": 0.5768, "r_multiple": 2.739166616991805, "net_pnl_usd": 82.14744116410829 }, "fee_note": "net = gross(fill exit ber-slippage per sisi) − fee entry − fee exit taker; funding di luar skenario (belum diketahui saat entry); usd_tp ter-cap di ambang dolar → net = ambang − fee entry; usd_tp_mode=trail: sentuh ambang TIDAK menutup — trailing USD di-arm, lantai awal usd_trail_floor = ambang × (1 − giveback) dan naik mengikuti peak uPnL bersih (exit reason usd_trail_stop)", "stop_loss": { "roa_pct": -6.510220750008082, "rom_pct": -60.20037596282326, "exit_price": 0.6225, "r_multiple": -1.0033395993803875, "net_pnl_usd": -30.090093898062044 }, "trail_floor": { "roa_pct": 2.6224035990517045, "rom_pct": 24.249512981411186, "exit_price": 0.6053129436015001, "r_multiple": 0.40415854969018644, "net_pnl_usd": 12.120690459533755 }, "usd_trail_floor": { "roa_pct": 2.8667927268474314, "rom_pct": 26.509392936251576, "exit_price": 0.6048530177836778, "r_multiple": 0.4418232156041929, "net_pnl_usd": 13.250251512133973 } }, "snapshot_kind": "entry_snapshot", "thesis_version": 2, "breakeven_price": 0.6102481513614877, "expected_net_bps": 32.63520614829355, "funding_projection": { "note": "estimasi = rate saat entry × notional × settlement dalam max_hold; rate berubah tiap interval, interval riil simbol diinferensi dari history (fallback config)", "direction": "terima", "est_usd_paid": -0.05623113658995203, "horizon_hours": 6.0, "interval_hours": 8.0, "est_settlements": 0.75, "interval_source": "config_fallback", "funding_rate_at_entry": 5e-05 }, "utility_bps_per_day": 15.845116353717788 }, "funding_paid": 0.0, "last_mark_at": "2026-08-29T05:32:54.224193+00:00", "notional_usd": 1499.4969757320541, "trail_peak_r": 0.12206561454485786, "working_type": "MARK_PRICE", "ambiguous_bar": false, "current_price": 0.62790896, "price_move_pct": -1.9057263355929832, "risk_modifiers": [ "risk_gates_bypassed", "stop_capped_30usd" ], "unrealized_pnl": -41.391612107945754, "equity_at_entry": 462.1977510981435, "exit_mark_price": 0.6225, "usd_trail_armed": false, "barrier_evidence": { "series": "mark", "trigger": "stop_loss", "last_low": 0.6173, "mark_low": 0.6173, "last_high": 0.6281, "mark_high": 0.624985, "fill_price": 0.6225, "bar_open_ms": 1787981400000, "both_touched": false }, "trail_r_distance": 0.011458037598999993, "usd_peak_net_usd": null, "exit_shadow_state": { "ptp": { "at": null, "open": true, "r_mult": 0.8, "pnl_usd": null, "fraction": 0.75, "part_done": false, "realized_usd": 0.0 }, "tstop": { "at": null, "open": true, "min_r": 0.5, "minutes": 120.0, "pnl_usd": null }, "peak_r": 0.12206561454485786 }, "last_processed_ts": "2026-08-29T05:30:59.999000+00:00", "take_profit_price": 0.5768, "r_multiple_realized": -1.0033395993803875, "utility_bps_per_day": 15.845116353717788, "liquidation_estimate": 0.7888933095910623, "return_on_margin_pct": -60.20037596282326, "usd_tp_threshold_usd": 20.0, "return_on_account_pct": -6.510220750008082, "usd_tp_trail_giveback": 0.3, "safe_leverage_suggested": 23, "symbol_loss_block_until": "2026-08-30T05:32:54.224193+00:00" }, { "qty": 443.0, "side": "short", "event": "meta_close", "shadow": { "bars": 360, "last": { "at": "2026-08-29T14:22:59.999000+00:00", "price": 3.4863, "net_usd": -46.58599129644035 }, "complete": true, "max_adverse": { "at": "2026-08-29T14:01:00+00:00", "price": 3.51324933, "net_usd": -58.534097119775296, "rom_pct": -117.09310691199187 }, "max_favorable": { "at": "2026-08-29T08:43:00+00:00", "price": 3.3963, "net_usd": -6.68408931594051, "rom_pct": -13.371023444321803 }, "vs_actual_usd": 15.665961106823211, "follow_minutes": 360, "checked_through": "2026-08-29T14:22:59.999000+00:00" }, "source": "live", "symbol": "LITUSDT", "net_pnl": -22.350050422763722, "exit_fee": 0.7603352001554015, "leverage": 30, "risk_usd": 22.154934422073044, "strategy": "directional", "trade_id": "c92ea3c6500348ddacd643620aa7a43e", "closed_at": "2026-08-29T08:23:17.143754+00:00", "entry_fee": 0.7498404303650001, "gross_pnl": -20.98953958080282, "llm_judge": { "model": "claude-opus-5", "score": 62.0, "reasons": [ "Struktur bearish rapi: harga di bawah semua EMA 5m/1h dan VWAP 5m, BTC trending_down", "Bahan bakar naik sejak penilaian lalu: volume_ratio 0.53 -> 1.88 dan taker 0.496 -> 0.475 (agresor jual searah short)", "Belum overextended: trend_1h_atr -0.45, RSI 38, jarak EMA50-1h hanya -2.28%, funding +0.005% dibayar ke short", "Cacat: OI 1h datar (+0.03%, turun dari 0.09%) dan ADX 19.8 lemah, entry 1.36% di bawah VWAP 5m setelah leg 5m -1.42 ATR" ], "verdict": "approve", "key_risk": "Breakdown tanpa dukungan OI dan ADX lemah, rawan mean-reversion cepat balik ke VWAP/EMA 5m menjepit entry di dekat low leg", "better_entry": 3.396541803723264, "perubahan_material": { "alasan": [], "memburuk": false, "oi_1h_pct": { "dulu": 0.09, "kini": 0.03 }, "volume_ratio": { "dulu": 0.53, "kini": 1.88, "perubahan_pct": 256.6 }, "taker_ratio_4h": { "dulu": 0.496, "kini": 0.475 }, "harga_berubah_pct": -1.43 }, "better_entry_anchor": "ema_fast_5m" }, "opened_at": "2026-08-29T03:45:22.761928+00:00", "risk_tier": "fixed_margin", "tick_size": 0.0001, "confidence": 0.7737050265254145, "exit_price": 3.4326645605209998, "margin_usd": 49.98936202433334, "paper_only": true, "stop_price": 3.4309, "entry_price": 3.38528411, "exit_policy": "trail", "exit_shadow": { "ptp_mode": "partial_lalu_breakeven", "ptp_pnl_usd": 10.1846, "real_net_usd": -22.3501, "tstop_pnl_usd": -22.3501, "tstop_triggered": false }, "sizing_mode": "fixed_margin", "trail_armed": false, "usd_tp_mode": "trail", "close_reason": "stop_loss", "entry_thesis": { "setup": { "side": "short", "score": -0.6624426730979063, "strategy": "directional", "btc_regime": "trending_down", "confidence": 0.7737050265254145, "score_note": "komponen skor ChartSkill yang sudah dihitung saat entry; mom_z tidak tersedia di jalur meta (null)", "gross_edge_bps": 37.20116220047239, "confidence_tier": "fixed_margin", "score_breakdown": { "adx": 19.84038908039151, "rsi": 38.07081594502426, "mom_z": null, "atr_pct": 0.004492604563229786, "momentum_1h": -0.0030931479408472518, "trend_1h_atr": -0.4514584798517654, "trend_5m_atr": -1.4218074860417633, "volume_ratio": 1.8801656738802341, "vwap_position": -0.013565286428775495 }, "funding_edge_bps": 0.37500000000000006, "round_trip_cost_bps": 16.0 }, "action": "short", "levels": { "stop": 3.4309, "entry": 3.38528411, "take_profit": 3.2485, "mark_at_entry": 3.3863 }, "reason": "selected short utility=12.55 bps/day (news x0.96)", "symbol": "LITUSDT", "vetoes": [], "filters": [ { "name": "session_window", "pass": true, "value": { "hour_utc": 3, "window_utc": null } }, { "name": "btc_gate", "pass": true, "value": { "applies": true, "btc_return_7d": -0.01051003021617758 } }, { "name": "funding_extreme", "pass": true, "value": { "notes": null, "pctile": 97.5, "pctile_hi": 0.0003272909999999997, "pctile_lo": -0.00021028399999999998, "funding_rate": 5e-05 } }, { "name": "vol_target", "pass": true, "value": { "vol_scale": 1.0, "realized_vol_daily_pct": 1.92478897967642 } }, { "name": "taker_flow_gate", "pass": true, "value": { "min_ratio": 0.52, "taker_ratio_4h": 0.47539343617751106 } }, { "name": "freshness_gate", "pass": true, "value": { "atr_1h": 0.09204285714285716, "dist_low_atr": -0.9289151016607183, "made_new_low": false, "dist_high_atr": -1.8426198975632462, "made_new_high": false, "max_atr_above": 1.0 } }, { "name": "exhaustion", "pass": true, "value": { "notes": null, "enabled": true, "max_pct": 40.0, "move_24h_pct": -5.6766007179230416 } }, { "name": "overextended", "pass": true, "value": { "price": 3.3841, "enabled": true, "max_pct": 40.0, "ema50_1h": 3.4630819455540744, "ema_source": "chart_skill_1h", "dist_ema50_pct": -2.2806837030082905 } }, { "name": "atr_band", "pass": true, "value": { "enabled": true, "dead_pct": 1.2, "atr_pct_1h": 2.3064187481019576, "extreme_pct": 15.0 } }, { "name": "oi_crowd", "pass": true, "value": { "note": null, "enabled": true, "max_pct": 8.0, "oi_change_1h_pct": 0.02559811779365706 } }, { "name": "crowd_positioning", "pass": true, "value": { "note": null, "side": "short", "enabled": false, "ls_ratio": null, "threshold": 1.5, "delta_block": 0.3, "ls_delta_1h": null } }, { "name": "stop_truncated", "pass": true, "value": { "atr_pct": 0.004492604563229786, "cap_pct": 0.02, "enabled": true, "ratio_3atr_vs_cap": 0.6738906844844678 } }, { "name": "plateau", "pass": true, "value": { "count": 0, "enabled": false, "conditions": null, "min_conditions": null } }, { "name": "universe", "pass": true, "value": { "rank": 38, "size": 44, "quote_volume_24h": 63030308.83771 } }, { "name": "regime", "pass": true, "value": { "note": null, "btc_regime": "trending_down", "choppy_no_trade": false } }, { "name": "symbol_recent_loss", "pass": true, "value": { "enabled": true, "block_hours": 24.0, "block_until": null, "manual_exempt": null } }, { "name": "news", "pass": true, "value": { "reason": "No evidence item has a transmission channel to LIT (Litentry/Heima). The Sandbox item is a $700K exploit on SAND's own bridge with 1:1 repayment pledged, touching neither LIT's chain (Polkadot parachain/Heima stack), its bridges, nor its cu", "binding": false, "decision": "allow", "risk_score": 8, "unavailable": false } }, { "name": "portfolio_heat", "pass": true, "value": { "cap_usd": 6.0, "risk_usd": 22.154934422073044, "open_risk_after_usd": 46.05251320984303, "open_risk_before_usd": 23.89757878776998 } }, { "name": "correlated_side", "pass": true, "value": { "cap": 3, "applies": true, "same_side_alt_count": 1 } } ], "expected": { "horizon_hours": 6.0, "expected_net_bps": 21.57616220047239, "utility_bps_per_day": 12.549760354414948 }, "strategy": "directional", "exit_plan": { "tp_hard_r": 3.0, "stop_price": 3.4309, "exit_policy": "trail", "trail_arm_r": 1.0, "usd_tp_mode": "trail", "tp_hard_price": 3.2485, "usd_tp_r_mult": 2.0, "usd_tp_abs_usd": 20.0, "trail_arm_price": 3.3396682200000005, "daily_guardrails": { "loss_limit_usd": 100.0, "profit_target_usd": 100.0, "profit_floor_fraction": 0.5, "protect_profit_at_usd": 0.0 }, "trail_distance_r": 0.5, "time_stop_minutes": 360.0, "usd_trail_floor_usd": 14.0, "trail_distance_price": 0.02280794499999983, "usd_tp_threshold_usd": 20.0, "usd_tp_trail_giveback": 0.3 }, "risk_plan": { "qty": 443.0, "leverage": 30, "risk_usd": 22.154934422073044, "risk_tier": "fixed_margin", "margin_usd": 49.98936202433334, "notional_usd": 1499.6808607300002, "entry_fee_usd": 0.7498404303650001, "stop_distance": { "pct": 1.3474759729989, "price": 0.04561588999999966 }, "risk_modifiers": [ "risk_gates_bypassed" ], "leverage_reason": "safe_leverage: min(cap config 30x, floor(1/(stop_pct×2+0.005))) — estimasi likuidasi >= 2× jarak stop", "est_exit_fee_usd": 0.7498404303650001, "entry_slippage_usd": 0.450039269999861, "liquidation_estimate": 4.3920395476078795 }, "confidence": 0.7737050265254145, "data_as_of": "2026-08-29T03:40:00+00:00", "assessments": { "news": { "model": "claude-opus-5", "usage": { "metering": { "unit": "credit", "usage": 0.29137985592039806, "unitPlural": "credits" }, "context_usage_pct": 0.9061000347137451 }, "reason": "No evidence item has a transmission channel to LIT (Litentry/Heima). The Sandbox item is a $700K exploit on SAND's own bridge with 1:1 repayment pledged, touching neither LIT's chain (Polkadot parachain/Heima stack), its bridges, nor its custodians. The Kalshi suit is US prediction-market regulation with no LIT venue, issuer, or counterparty link, and its SUI tag looks like a mis-tag. The Ledger item is an explicit non-event: an Ethereum app vulnerability patched before exploitation, no LIT-holding infrastructure affected. All three appear to be systemic-keyword routing noise for this symbol. Confidence is capped below 0.9 because coverage is headline-level RSS only with one failed feed, and LIT is a small cap whose asset tags may be incomplete, so a LIT-specific hack, delisting, or withdr", "symbol": "LITUSDT", "decision": "allow", "evidence": [ { "id": "rss-c9a9253dbc95eb4a", "url": "https://cointelegraph.com/news/the-sandbox-compensation-sand-bridge-exploit?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound", "title": "The Sandbox pledges 1:1 repayment after $700K bridge exploit", "source": "cointelegraph", "tokens": [], "age_text": "22h", "age_hours": 22.0, "matched_by": "systemic_keyword", "published_at": "2026-08-28T05:40:48+00:00" }, { "id": "rss-dce9a2ba9164478b", "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/news-analysis/2026/08/27/connecticut-s-new-lawsuit-against-kalshi-piles-on-to-prediction-market-legal-fight", "title": "Connecticut's new lawsuit against Kalshi piles on to prediction market legal fight", "source": "coindesk", "tokens": [ "SUI" ], "age_text": "1d", "age_hours": 24.0, "matched_by": "systemic_keyword", "published_at": "2026-08-27T18:28:53+00:00" }, { "id": "rss-68aa705bc6aa47e8", "url": "https://decrypt.co/376750/no-ledger-wasnt-hacked-ethereum-app-exploit", "title": "No, Ledger Wasn’t Hacked: Vulnerable Ethereum App Was Patched Before Exploit, Company Says", "source": "decrypt", "tokens": [ "ETH" ], "age_text": "1d", "age_hours": 24.0, "matched_by": "systemic_keyword", "published_at": "2026-08-27T18:16:03+00:00" } ], "categories": [ "unknown" ], "confidence": 0.72, "risk_score": 8, "observed_at": "2026-08-29T03:45:31.688583+00:00", "unavailable": false, "corpus_count": 80, "evidence_ids": [ "rss-c9a9253dbc95eb4a", "rss-dce9a2ba9164478b", "rss-68aa705bc6aa47e8" ], "evidence_hash": "6115e8768fe701e99361c8e41c46b0be07512c6b4e2add3461660e65d0ee345e", "evidence_count": 3, "freshness_hours": 22.0, "agent_routed_count": 0 }, "carry": { "score": 0.0, "skill": "carry", "action": "no_trade", "symbol": "LITUSDT", "vetoes": [ "carry_data_quality" ], "factors": {}, "reasons": [ "insufficient_carry_history" ], "eligible": false, "metadata": {}, "confidence": 0.0, "data_as_of": "2026-08-29T03:45:22.761928+00:00", "horizon_hours": 24.0, "expected_net_bps": 0.0 }, "directional": { "score": -0.6624426730979063, "skill": "directional", "action": "short", "symbol": "LITUSDT", "vetoes": [], "factors": { "adx": 19.84038908039151, "rsi": 38.07081594502426, "flow_z": null, "atr_pct": 0.004492604563229786, "flow_term": 0.0, "kyle_lambda": null, "momentum_1h": -0.0030931479408472518, "trend_1h_atr": -0.4514584798517654, "trend_5m_atr": -1.4218074860417633, "volume_ratio": 1.8801656738802341, "vwap_position": -0.013565286428775495, "gross_edge_bps": 37.20116220047239, "taker_imbalance": null, "funding_edge_bps": 0.37500000000000006, "round_trip_cost_bps": 16.0 }, "reasons": [ "short structure score -0.662", "1h trend aligned; BTC trending_down", "directional net EV +21.6 bps" ], "eligible": true, "metadata": { "atr": 0.015203423102425919, "frames": { "1h": { "vwap": null, "close": 3.3897, "ema_mid": 3.451512125351023, "ema_fast": 3.4277866162759016, "ema_slow": 3.4630819455540744 }, "5m": { "vwap": 3.4306375814253567, "close": 3.3841, "ema_mid": 3.4048708638113308, "ema_fast": 3.396541803723264, "ema_slow": 3.4181581445037534 } }, "btc_regime": "trending_down", "mark_price": 3.3863, "ema_periods": { "mid": 21, "fast": 9, "slow": 50 }, "candle_price": 3.3841, "funding_rate": 5e-05, "orderflow_enabled": false }, "confidence": 0.7737050265254145, "data_as_of": "2026-08-29T03:40:00+00:00", "horizon_hours": 6.0, "expected_net_bps": 21.57616220047239 }, "performance_carry": { "score": 0.0, "skill": "performance", "action": "allow", "symbol": "LITUSDT", "vetoes": [], "factors": { "wins": 0.0, "losses": 0.0, "samples": 0.0, "expectancy_usd": 0.0, "minimum_samples": 8.0, "sample_maturity": 0.0, "posterior_win_rate": 0.5, "win_rate_lower_bound": 0.3210613300064863 }, "reasons": [ "shrunk win rate 50.0%; lower bound 32.1%; n=0/8 minimum" ], "eligible": true, "metadata": {}, "confidence": 0.15, "data_as_of": "2026-08-29T03:45:22.761928+00:00", "horizon_hours": 24.0, "expected_net_bps": 0.0 }, "performance_directional": { "score": 0.04761904761904767, "skill": "performance", "action": "allow", "symbol": "LITUSDT", "vetoes": [], "factors": { "wins": 1.0, "losses": 0.0, "samples": 1.0, "expectancy_usd": 10.298045521053858, "minimum_samples": 8.0, "sample_maturity": 0.125, "posterior_win_rate": 0.5238095238095238, "win_rate_lower_bound": 0.34918326270954025 }, "reasons": [ "shrunk win rate 52.4%; lower bound 34.9%; n=1/8 minimum" ], "eligible": true, "metadata": {}, "confidence": 0.1880952380952381, "data_as_of": "2026-08-29T03:45:22.761928+00:00", "horizon_hours": 24.0, "expected_net_bps": 0.0 } }, "captured_at": "2026-08-29T03:45:22.761928+00:00", "chart_setup": { "notes": [], "swing": { "low": { "price": 3.3876, "formed_at": "2026-08-29T03:05:00+00:00", "distance_pct": -0.06836373833982066 }, "high": { "price": 3.4347, "formed_at": "2026-08-29T03:25:00+00:00", "distance_pct": -1.4387250706029548 } }, "atr_pct": 0.004492604563229786, "support": { "kind": "fvg_bull_top", "price": 3.3848, "distance_pct": 0.014302469865291026 }, "ema_vwap": { "1h": [ { "name": "EMA9", "value": 3.4277866162759016, "relation": "di_bawah", "distance_pct": -1.2399402598192666 }, { "name": "EMA21", "value": 3.451512125351023, "relation": "di_bawah", "distance_pct": -1.918811609108497 }, { "name": "EMA50", "value": 3.4630819455540744, "relation": "di_bawah", "distance_pct": -2.2464913270086377 } ], "5m": [ { "name": "EMA9", "value": 3.396541803723264, "relation": "di_bawah", "distance_pct": -0.33144575788595315 }, { "name": "EMA21", "value": 3.4048708638113308, "relation": "di_bawah", "distance_pct": -0.5752568774195925 }, { "name": "EMA50", "value": 3.4181581445037534, "relation": "di_bawah", "distance_pct": -0.9617470319977222 }, { "name": "VWAP", "value": 3.4306375814253567, "relation": "di_bawah", "distance_pct": -1.3220129013602513 } ] }, "narrative": "Entry SHORT LITUSDT di 3.38528, di bawah EMA9/EMA21/EMA50/VWAP pada frame 5m. Tren 1h turun (-0.45 ATR), searah posisi; rezim BTC trending_down. Level 1h: support terdekat fvg_bull_top 3.3848 (+0.01%); resistance terdekat asia_low 3.3886 (-0.10%). Volatilitas ATR 0.45% dari harga; pola candle 5m terakhir: three_crows.", "resistance": { "kind": "asia_low", "price": 3.3886, "distance_pct": -0.09785427610221493 }, "candle_patterns": { "1h": [ "three_crows" ], "5m": [ "three_crows" ] } }, "horizon_hours": 6.0, "roi_scenarios": { "usd_tp": { "roa_pct": 4.000272686199456, "rom_pct": 38.508512191583065, "exit_price": 3.337466908990469, "r_multiple": 0.8688881313255431, "net_pnl_usd": 19.250159569635 }, "tp_hard": { "roa_pct": 12.196893659583825, "rom_pct": 117.41305281759664, "exit_price": 3.2485, "r_multiple": 2.649253431250648, "net_pnl_usd": 58.694036036810104 }, "fee_note": "net = gross(fill exit ber-slippage per sisi) − fee entry − fee exit taker; funding di luar skenario (belum diketahui saat entry); usd_tp ter-cap di ambang dolar → net = ambang − fee entry; usd_tp_mode=trail: sentuh ambang TIDAK menutup — trailing USD di-arm, lantai awal usd_trail_floor = ambang × (1 − giveback) dan naik mengikuti peak uPnL bersih (exit reason usd_trail_stop)", "stop_loss": { "roa_pct": -4.607822638983702, "rom_pct": -44.35707467696093, "exit_price": 3.4309, "r_multiple": -1.0008523709092105, "net_pnl_usd": -22.173818643669886 }, "trail_floor": { "roa_pct": 1.6961419182256805, "rom_pct": 16.327862338480596, "exit_price": 3.3624761650000003, "r_multiple": 0.3684142800750437, "net_pnl_usd": 8.162194215217845 }, "usd_trail_floor": { "roa_pct": 2.753444781715139, "rom_pct": 26.50595853410815, "exit_price": 3.3510000984676003, "r_multiple": 0.5980681015437272, "net_pnl_usd": 13.250159569635 } }, "snapshot_kind": "entry_snapshot", "thesis_version": 2, "breakeven_price": 3.380886251810615, "expected_net_bps": 21.57616220047239, "funding_projection": { "note": "estimasi = rate saat entry × notional × settlement dalam max_hold; rate berubah tiap interval, interval riil simbol diinferensi dari history (fallback config)", "direction": "terima", "est_usd_paid": -0.11247606455475001, "horizon_hours": 6.0, "interval_hours": 4.0, "est_settlements": 1.5, "interval_source": "history_inference", "funding_rate_at_entry": 5e-05 }, "utility_bps_per_day": 12.549760354414948 }, "funding_paid": -0.1496647885595, "last_mark_at": "2026-08-29T08:23:17.143754+00:00", "notional_usd": 1499.6808607300002, "trail_peak_r": 0.8458480148036284, "working_type": "MARK_PRICE", "ambiguous_bar": false, "current_price": 3.43163507, "price_move_pct": -1.399600417023783, "risk_modifiers": [ "risk_gates_bypassed" ], "unrealized_pnl": -20.533475279999926, "equity_at_entry": 481.22118364695837, "exit_mark_price": 3.43163507, "last_funding_at": "2026-08-29T08:00:00+00:00", "usd_trail_armed": false, "barrier_evidence": { "series": "mark", "trigger": "stop_loss", "last_low": null, "mark_low": 3.43163507, "last_high": null, "mark_high": 3.43163507, "fill_price": 3.43163507, "bar_open_ms": 1787991780000, "both_touched": false }, "trail_r_distance": 0.04561588999999966, "usd_peak_net_usd": null, "exit_shadow_state": { "ptp": { "at": "2026-08-29T06:42:59.999000+00:00", "open": false, "r_mult": 0.8, "reason": "breakeven_stop", "pnl_usd": 10.93443550284198, "fraction": 0.75, "part_done": true, "realized_usd": 11.234427913020262 }, "tstop": { "at": null, "open": true, "min_r": 0.5, "minutes": 120.0, "pnl_usd": null }, "peak_r": 0.8458480148036284 }, "last_processed_ts": "2026-08-29T08:22:59.999000+00:00", "take_profit_price": 3.2485, "r_multiple_realized": -1.0088068868529931, "utility_bps_per_day": 12.549760354414948, "liquidation_estimate": 4.30938637281404, "return_on_margin_pct": -44.70961324108194, "usd_tp_threshold_usd": 20.0, "return_on_account_pct": -4.644444422288887, "usd_tp_trail_giveback": 0.3, "safe_leverage_suggested": 30 }, { "qty": 325689.0, "side": "short", "event": "meta_close", "shadow": { "bars": 360, "last": { "at": "2026-08-29T14:58:59.999000+00:00", "price": 0.00480882, "net_usd": -68.03410562954159 }, "complete": true, "max_adverse": { "at": "2026-08-29T14:55:00+00:00", "price": 0.00484725, "net_usd": -80.56034875959162, "rom_pct": -161.12079545558868 }, "max_favorable": { "at": "2026-08-29T09:27:00+00:00", "price": 0.00458225, "net_usd": 5.816295254545934, "rom_pct": 11.63259757990349 }, "vs_actual_usd": 12.304597402013922, "follow_minutes": 360, "checked_through": "2026-08-29T14:58:59.999000+00:00" }, "source": "live", "symbol": "PUMPUSDT", "net_pnl": -6.488302147467987, "exit_fee": 0.752567292477, "leverage": 30, "risk_usd": 23.89757878776998, "strategy": "directional", "trade_id": "fbd4d7161a844ec4b25820fd19880b93", "closed_at": "2026-08-29T08:59:37.763632+00:00", "entry_fee": 0.7499995441165501, "gross_pnl": -5.135496720899937, "llm_judge": { "model": "claude-opus-5", "score": 46.0, "reasons": [ "Tren 1h/5m turun + BTC trending_down + funding p97.5 (long padat bayar short) mendukung arah", "Entry menggantung: -1.24% di bawah VWAP 5m dan -2.74% di bawah EMA50 1h, bukan retest ke basis", "Bahan bakar belum terkonfirmasi: taker 0.515 masih pro-buyer, OI 1h hanya +0.10% (datar), momentum_1h nyaris flat sementara RSI naik 33.5 -> 40.6", "Tidak memburuk vs penilaian lalu (volume 1.13 -> 1.29, taker sama, harga +0.52%), verdict dan anchor dijaga konsisten" ], "verdict": "approve", "key_risk": "Bounce lanjutan ke VWAP/EMA 5m menekan short yang masuk di bawah struktur, karena agresor masih net beli dan OI tidak membangun posisi short baru", "better_entry": 0.004615847908888305, "perubahan_material": { "alasan": [], "memburuk": false, "oi_1h_pct": { "dulu": 0.11, "kini": 0.1 }, "volume_ratio": { "dulu": 1.13, "kini": 1.29, "perubahan_pct": 14.8 }, "taker_ratio_4h": { "dulu": 0.515, "kini": 0.515 }, "harga_berubah_pct": 0.52 }, "better_entry_anchor": "ema_mid_5m" }, "opened_at": "2026-08-29T02:58:05.155758+00:00", "risk_tier": "fixed_margin", "tick_size": 1e-06, "confidence": 0.8353192488137077, "exit_price": 0.004621386, "margin_usd": 49.999969607770005, "paper_only": true, "stop_price": 0.004673, "entry_price": 0.0046056179, "exit_policy": "trail", "exit_shadow": { "ptp_mode": "tanpa_partial", "ptp_pnl_usd": -6.4883, "real_net_usd": -6.4883, "tstop_pnl_usd": -6.4883, "tstop_triggered": false }, "sizing_mode": "fixed_margin", "trail_armed": false, "usd_tp_mode": "trail", "close_reason": "time_stop", "entry_thesis": { "setup": { "side": "short", "score": -0.7339669499632397, "strategy": "directional", "btc_regime": "trending_down", "confidence": 0.8353192488137077, "score_note": "komponen skor ChartSkill yang sudah dihitung saat entry; mom_z tidak tersedia di jalur meta (null)", "gross_edge_bps": 44.859850433854135, "confidence_tier": "fixed_margin", "score_breakdown": { "adx": 25.40935658348144, "rsi": 40.55067998829632, "mom_z": null, "atr_pct": 0.004889577159963502, "momentum_1h": -0.0064878892733563065, "trend_1h_atr": -0.6711981461363236, "trend_5m_atr": -1.1411838913263024, "volume_ratio": 1.2926726062270464, "vwap_position": -0.012399017964169461 }, "funding_edge_bps": 0.37500000000000006, "round_trip_cost_bps": 16.0 }, "action": "short", "levels": { "stop": 0.004673, "entry": 0.0046056179, "take_profit": 0.004403, "mark_at_entry": 0.004607 }, "reason": "selected short utility=18.36 bps/day (news x0.96)", "symbol": "PUMPUSDT", "vetoes": [], "filters": [ { "name": "session_window", "pass": true, "value": { "hour_utc": 2, "window_utc": null } }, { "name": "btc_gate", "pass": true, "value": { "applies": true, "btc_return_7d": -0.0005847750286925857 } }, { "name": "funding_extreme", "pass": true, "value": { "notes": null, "pctile": 97.5, "pctile_hi": 0.0004022149999999994, "pctile_lo": -0.000275775, "funding_rate": 5e-05 } }, { "name": "vol_target", "pass": true, "value": { "vol_scale": 1.0, "realized_vol_daily_pct": 1.9762018669417398 } }, { "name": "taker_flow_gate", "pass": true, "value": { "min_ratio": 0.52, "taker_ratio_4h": 0.5150413279792438 } }, { "name": "freshness_gate", "pass": true, "value": { "atr_1h": 0.00013899999999999994, "dist_low_atr": -1.690647482014389, "made_new_low": false, "dist_high_atr": -2.1870503597122344, "made_new_high": false, "max_atr_above": 1.0 } }, { "name": "exhaustion", "pass": true, "value": { "notes": null, "enabled": true, "max_pct": 40.0, "move_24h_pct": -3.334722801167167 } }, { "name": "overextended", "pass": true, "value": { "price": 0.004594, "enabled": true, "max_pct": 40.0, "ema50_1h": 0.0047234719661580086, "ema_source": "chart_skill_1h", "dist_ema50_pct": -2.741033864192044 } }, { "name": "atr_band", "pass": true, "value": { "enabled": true, "dead_pct": 1.2, "atr_pct_1h": 2.6810770066465985, "extreme_pct": 15.0 } }, { "name": "oi_crowd", "pass": true, "value": { "note": null, "enabled": true, "max_pct": 8.0, "oi_change_1h_pct": 0.09888095670216313 } }, { "name": "crowd_positioning", "pass": true, "value": { "note": null, "side": "short", "enabled": false, "ls_ratio": null, "threshold": 1.5, "delta_block": 0.3, "ls_delta_1h": null } }, { "name": "stop_truncated", "pass": true, "value": { "atr_pct": 0.004889577159963502, "cap_pct": 0.02, "enabled": true, "ratio_3atr_vs_cap": 0.7334365739945252 } }, { "name": "plateau", "pass": true, "value": { "count": 0, "enabled": false, "conditions": null, "min_conditions": null } }, { "name": "universe", "pass": true, "value": { "rank": 13, "size": 44, "quote_volume_24h": 253458577.380937 } }, { "name": "regime", "pass": true, "value": { "note": null, "btc_regime": "trending_down", "choppy_no_trade": false } }, { "name": "symbol_recent_loss", "pass": true, "value": { "enabled": true, "block_hours": 24.0, "block_until": null, "manual_exempt": null } }, { "name": "news", "pass": true, "value": { "reason": "No evidence touches PUMP or its transmission channels (Solana chain health, Pump.fun contracts/launchpad, its LP or fee infrastructure, or a venue listing PUMP). The Sandbox item is a $700K exploit of SAND's own bridge with 1:1 repayment pl", "binding": false, "decision": "allow", "risk_score": 8, "unavailable": false } }, { "name": "portfolio_heat", "pass": true, "value": { "cap_usd": 6.0, "risk_usd": 23.89757878776998, "open_risk_after_usd": 41.269284076877426, "open_risk_before_usd": 17.371705289107442 } }, { "name": "correlated_side", "pass": true, "value": { "cap": 3, "applies": true, "same_side_alt_count": 1 } } ], "expected": { "horizon_hours": 6.0, "expected_net_bps": 29.234850433854135, "utility_bps_per_day": 18.35858403097174 }, "strategy": "directional", "exit_plan": { "tp_hard_r": 3.0, "stop_price": 0.004673, "exit_policy": "trail", "trail_arm_r": 1.0, "usd_tp_mode": "trail", "tp_hard_price": 0.004403, "usd_tp_r_mult": 2.0, "usd_tp_abs_usd": 20.0, "trail_arm_price": 0.0045382358, "daily_guardrails": { "loss_limit_usd": 100.0, "profit_target_usd": 100.0, "profit_floor_fraction": 0.5, "protect_profit_at_usd": 0.0 }, "trail_distance_r": 0.5, "time_stop_minutes": 360.0, "usd_trail_floor_usd": 14.0, "trail_distance_price": 3.369104999999999e-05, "usd_tp_threshold_usd": 20.0, "usd_tp_trail_giveback": 0.3 }, "risk_plan": { "qty": 325689.0, "leverage": 30, "risk_usd": 23.89757878776998, "risk_tier": "fixed_margin", "margin_usd": 49.999969607770005, "notional_usd": 1499.9990882331, "entry_fee_usd": 0.7499995441165501, "stop_distance": { "pct": 1.463041473761859, "price": 6.738209999999998e-05 }, "risk_modifiers": [ "risk_gates_bypassed" ], "leverage_reason": "safe_leverage: min(cap config 30x, floor(1/(stop_pct×2+0.005))) — estimasi likuidasi >= 2× jarak stop", "est_exit_fee_usd": 0.7499995441165501, "entry_slippage_usd": 0.4501347668999652, "liquidation_estimate": 0.00600637645927037 }, "confidence": 0.8353192488137077, "data_as_of": "2026-08-29T02:50:00+00:00", "assessments": { "news": { "model": "claude-opus-5", "usage": { "metering": { "unit": "credit", "usage": 0.2809422711442786, "unitPlural": "credits" }, "context_usage_pct": 0.9019999504089355 }, "reason": "No evidence touches PUMP or its transmission channels (Solana chain health, Pump.fun contracts/launchpad, its LP or fee infrastructure, or a venue listing PUMP). The Sandbox item is a $700K exploit of SAND's own bridge with 1:1 repayment pledged, isolated to that project's Ethereum/Polygon bridge; the Kalshi suit is a US prediction-market regulatory fight with no counterparty or listing link to PUMP (the SUI tag looks like a spurious inference); the Ledger item is an explicit non-event, a patched Ethereum app vulnerability with no exploit. All three appear to be systemic-keyword false positives routed here by the reader and are scored low accordingly. No credible severe risk (hack, delisting, depeg, insolvency, chain halt, frozen withdrawals, legal/operational shock) reaching the symbol, s", "symbol": "PUMPUSDT", "decision": "allow", "evidence": [ { "id": "rss-c9a9253dbc95eb4a", "url": "https://cointelegraph.com/news/the-sandbox-compensation-sand-bridge-exploit?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound", "title": "The Sandbox pledges 1:1 repayment after $700K bridge exploit", "source": "cointelegraph", "tokens": [], "age_text": "21h", "age_hours": 21.0, "matched_by": "systemic_keyword", "published_at": "2026-08-28T05:40:48+00:00" }, { "id": "rss-dce9a2ba9164478b", "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/news-analysis/2026/08/27/connecticut-s-new-lawsuit-against-kalshi-piles-on-to-prediction-market-legal-fight", "title": "Connecticut's new lawsuit against Kalshi piles on to prediction market legal fight", "source": "coindesk", "tokens": [ "SUI" ], "age_text": "1d", "age_hours": 24.0, "matched_by": "systemic_keyword", "published_at": "2026-08-27T18:28:53+00:00" }, { "id": "rss-68aa705bc6aa47e8", "url": "https://decrypt.co/376750/no-ledger-wasnt-hacked-ethereum-app-exploit", "title": "No, Ledger Wasn’t Hacked: Vulnerable Ethereum App Was Patched Before Exploit, Company Says", "source": "decrypt", "tokens": [ "ETH" ], "age_text": "1d", "age_hours": 24.0, "matched_by": "systemic_keyword", "published_at": "2026-08-27T18:16:03+00:00" } ], "categories": [ "unknown" ], "confidence": 0.72, "risk_score": 8, "observed_at": "2026-08-29T02:58:14.539164+00:00", "unavailable": false, "corpus_count": 80, "evidence_ids": [ "rss-c9a9253dbc95eb4a", "rss-dce9a2ba9164478b", "rss-68aa705bc6aa47e8" ], "evidence_hash": "0d4c644343178a2b4d6287de68b1f2eda77eed5937ca8532134a270644bc6a00", "evidence_count": 3, "freshness_hours": 21.0, "agent_routed_count": 0 }, "carry": { "score": -0.054879096602769066, "skill": "carry", "action": "no_trade", "symbol": "PUMPUSDT", "vetoes": [ "carry_quality_gate" ], "factors": { "funding_mean": 2.294474074074074e-05, "risk_buffer_bps": 8.807197743360495, "basis_change_vol": 0.0003882800330226002, "funding_edge_bps": 9.63679111111111, "current_basis_pct": -0.065075921908897, "annual_funding_pct": 2.5124491111111107, "funding_persistence": 0.7666666666666667, "round_trip_cost_bps": 8.0, "basis_convergence_bps": 0.0 }, "reasons": [ "annual funding 2.51%; persistence 76.7%", "carry net EV -7.2 bps over 14d" ], "eligible": false, "metadata": { "perp_price": 0.004607, "spot_price": 0.00461 }, "confidence": 0.895, "data_as_of": "2026-08-29T02:58:05.155758+00:00", "horizon_hours": 336.0, "expected_net_bps": -7.170406632249385 }, "directional": { "score": -0.7339669499632397, "skill": "directional", "action": "short", "symbol": "PUMPUSDT", "vetoes": [], "factors": { "adx": 25.40935658348144, "rsi": 40.55067998829632, "flow_z": null, "atr_pct": 0.004889577159963502, "flow_term": 0.0, "kyle_lambda": null, "momentum_1h": -0.0064878892733563065, "trend_1h_atr": -0.6711981461363236, "trend_5m_atr": -1.1411838913263024, "volume_ratio": 1.2926726062270464, "vwap_position": -0.012399017964169461, "gross_edge_bps": 44.859850433854135, "taker_imbalance": null, "funding_edge_bps": 0.37500000000000006, "round_trip_cost_bps": 16.0 }, "reasons": [ "short structure score -0.734", "1h trend aligned; BTC trending_down", "directional net EV +29.2 bps" ], "eligible": true, "metadata": { "atr": 2.2462717472872325e-05, "frames": { "1h": { "vwap": null, "close": 0.004638, "ema_mid": 0.004678752278749138, "ema_fast": 0.0046400095831102784, "ema_slow": 0.0047234719661580086 }, "5m": { "vwap": 0.004651676216977808, "close": 0.004594, "ema_mid": 0.004615847908888305, "ema_fast": 0.004596733030820016, "ema_slow": 0.004622367122155472 } }, "btc_regime": "trending_down", "mark_price": 0.004607, "ema_periods": { "mid": 21, "fast": 9, "slow": 50 }, "candle_price": 0.004594, "funding_rate": 5e-05, "orderflow_enabled": false }, "confidence": 0.8353192488137077, "data_as_of": "2026-08-29T02:50:00+00:00", "horizon_hours": 6.0, "expected_net_bps": 29.234850433854135 }, "performance_carry": { "score": 0.0, "skill": "performance", "action": "allow", "symbol": "PUMPUSDT", "vetoes": [], "factors": { "wins": 0.0, "losses": 0.0, "samples": 0.0, "expectancy_usd": 0.0, "minimum_samples": 8.0, "sample_maturity": 0.0, "posterior_win_rate": 0.5, "win_rate_lower_bound": 0.3210613300064863 }, "reasons": [ "shrunk win rate 50.0%; lower bound 32.1%; n=0/8 minimum" ], "eligible": true, "metadata": {}, "confidence": 0.15, "data_as_of": "2026-08-29T02:58:05.155758+00:00", "horizon_hours": 24.0, "expected_net_bps": 0.0 }, "performance_directional": { "score": 0.04761904761904767, "skill": "performance", "action": "allow", "symbol": "PUMPUSDT", "vetoes": [], "factors": { "wins": 1.0, "losses": 0.0, "samples": 1.0, "expectancy_usd": 18.273118336792137, "minimum_samples": 8.0, "sample_maturity": 0.125, "posterior_win_rate": 0.5238095238095238, "win_rate_lower_bound": 0.34918326270954025 }, "reasons": [ "shrunk win rate 52.4%; lower bound 34.9%; n=1/8 minimum" ], "eligible": true, "metadata": {}, "confidence": 0.1880952380952381, "data_as_of": "2026-08-29T02:58:05.155758+00:00", "horizon_hours": 24.0, "expected_net_bps": 0.0 } }, "captured_at": "2026-08-29T02:58:05.155758+00:00", "chart_setup": { "notes": [], "swing": { "low": { "price": 0.004553, "formed_at": "2026-08-29T02:35:00+00:00", "distance_pct": 1.1556753788710814 }, "high": { "price": 0.004657, "formed_at": "2026-08-29T02:05:00+00:00", "distance_pct": -1.1033304702598152 } }, "atr_pct": 0.004889577159963502, "support": { "kind": "london_low", "price": 0.004602, "distance_pct": 0.07861581920903744 }, "ema_vwap": { "1h": [ { "name": "EMA9", "value": 0.0046400095831102784, "relation": "di_bawah", "distance_pct": -0.7411985362156301 }, { "name": "EMA21", "value": 0.004678752278749138, "relation": "di_bawah", "distance_pct": -1.5631171387575633 }, { "name": "EMA50", "value": 0.0047234719661580086, "relation": "di_bawah", "distance_pct": -2.4950728405374436 } ], "5m": [ { "name": "EMA9", "value": 0.004596733030820016, "relation": "di_atas", "distance_pct": 0.19328660421244614 }, { "name": "EMA21", "value": 0.004615847908888305, "relation": "di_bawah", "distance_pct": -0.22162794550934004 }, { "name": "EMA50", "value": 0.004622367122155472, "relation": "di_bawah", "distance_pct": -0.3623516201296775 }, { "name": "VWAP", "value": 0.004651676216977808, "relation": "di_bawah", "distance_pct": -0.9901445162864678 } ] }, "narrative": "Entry SHORT PUMPUSDT di 0.00460562, di atas EMA9 dan di bawah EMA21/EMA50/VWAP pada frame 5m. Tren 1h turun (-0.67 ATR), searah posisi; rezim BTC trending_down. Level 1h: support terdekat london_low 0.004602 (+0.08%); resistance terdekat asia_low 0.004607 (-0.03%). Volatilitas ATR 0.49% dari harga; tanpa pola candle menonjol di bar 5m terakhir.", "resistance": { "kind": "asia_low", "price": 0.004607, "distance_pct": -0.02999999999999768 }, "candle_patterns": { "1h": [], "5m": [] } }, "horizon_hours": 6.0, "roi_scenarios": { "usd_tp": { "roa_pct": 3.917856432284811, "rom_pct": 38.50002431379877, "exit_price": 0.004540576481734785, "r_multiple": 0.8055209536848555, "net_pnl_usd": 19.25000045588345 }, "tp_hard": { "roa_pct": 13.044528052591946, "rom_pct": 128.18607722538192, "exit_price": 0.004403, "r_multiple": 2.6819871679588023, "net_pnl_usd": 64.09299965408356 }, "fee_note": "net = gross(fill exit ber-slippage per sisi) − fee entry − fee exit taker; funding di luar skenario (belum diketahui saat entry); usd_tp ter-cap di ambang dolar → net = ambang − fee entry; usd_tp_mode=trail: sentuh ambang TIDAK menutup — trailing USD di-arm, lantai awal usd_trail_floor = ambang × (1 − giveback) dan naik mengikuti peak uPnL bersih (exit reason usd_trail_stop)", "stop_loss": { "roa_pct": -4.866973291317481, "rom_pct": -47.826813791912485, "exit_price": 0.004673, "r_multiple": -1.0006617227917294, "net_pnl_usd": -23.913392360320998 }, "trail_floor": { "roa_pct": 1.8381076792683162, "rom_pct": 18.062731895956812, "exit_price": 0.00457192685, "r_multiple": 0.3779194762162829, "net_pnl_usd": 9.031360458311385 }, "usd_trail_floor": { "roa_pct": 2.696706404388355, "rom_pct": 26.500017019659143, "exit_price": 0.0045589842355685615, "r_multiple": 0.5544494935472032, "net_pnl_usd": 13.25000045588345 } }, "snapshot_kind": "entry_snapshot", "thesis_version": 2, "breakeven_price": 0.004599634693350117, "expected_net_bps": 29.234850433854135, "funding_projection": { "note": "estimasi = rate saat entry × notional × settlement dalam max_hold; rate berubah tiap interval, interval riil simbol diinferensi dari history (fallback config)", "direction": "terima", "est_usd_paid": -0.11249993161748251, "horizon_hours": 6.0, "interval_hours": 4.0, "est_settlements": 1.5, "interval_source": "history_inference", "funding_rate_at_entry": 5e-05 }, "utility_bps_per_day": 18.35858403097174 }, "funding_paid": -0.1497614100255, "last_mark_at": "2026-08-29T08:59:37.763632+00:00", "notional_usd": 1499.9990882331, "trail_peak_r": 0.6431663602054544, "working_type": "MARK_PRICE", "ambiguous_bar": false, "current_price": 0.00462, "price_move_pct": -0.3423666561657157, "risk_modifiers": [ "risk_gates_bypassed" ], "unrealized_pnl": -4.684091766899962, "equity_at_entry": 491.34011898075744, "exit_mark_price": 0.00462, "last_funding_at": "2026-08-29T08:00:00+00:00", "usd_trail_armed": false, "trail_r_distance": 6.738209999999998e-05, "usd_peak_net_usd": null, "exit_shadow_state": { "ptp": { "at": null, "open": true, "r_mult": 0.8, "pnl_usd": null, "fraction": 0.75, "part_done": false, "realized_usd": 0.0 }, "tstop": { "at": null, "open": true, "min_r": 0.5, "minutes": 120.0, "pnl_usd": null }, "peak_r": 0.6431663602054544 }, "last_processed_ts": "2026-08-29T08:58:59.999000+00:00", "take_profit_price": 0.004403, "r_multiple_realized": -0.27150458232984226, "utility_bps_per_day": 18.35858403097174, "liquidation_estimate": 0.005870355553010034, "return_on_margin_pct": -12.976612182699615, "usd_tp_threshold_usd": 20.0, "return_on_account_pct": -1.3205317247301946, "usd_tp_trail_giveback": 0.3, "safe_leverage_suggested": 29 }, { "qty": 6.401, "side": "short", "event": "meta_close", "shadow": { "bars": 361, "last": { "at": "2026-08-29T15:05:59.999000+00:00", "price": 237.59, "net_usd": -22.761734568868935 }, "complete": true, "max_adverse": { "at": "2026-08-29T14:47:00+00:00", "price": 239.03364784, "net_usd": -32.00991841068649, "rom_pct": -64.02221496154652 }, "max_favorable": { "at": "2026-08-29T10:06:00+00:00", "price": 231.64391807, "net_usd": 15.329590270538581, "rom_pct": 30.66031943540356 }, "vs_actual_usd": 4.425609833250752, "follow_minutes": 360, "checked_through": "2026-08-29T15:05:59.999000+00:00" }, "source": "live", "symbol": "TAOUSDT", "net_pnl": 10.90398043728783, "exit_fee": 0.7438104717580618, "leverage": 30, "risk_usd": 14.090741433182373, "strategy": "directional", "trade_id": "a77a5f9c169349a9ae3b17a0df013ebb", "closed_at": "2026-08-29T09:05:34.952708+00:00", "entry_fee": 0.7499721408400001, "gross_pnl": 12.323338163876583, "llm_judge": { "model": "claude-opus-5", "score": 62.0, "reasons": [ "Trend 5m & 1h searah turun, harga di bawah VWAP 5m, BTC trending_down — kontinuasi, bukan short di dasar (RSI 46, gerak 24h -5.3%)", "Flow mendukung: taker 4h 0.471 (agresor jual) dan funding +0.005% di p97.5 = short menerima funding, long padat", "Cacat: delta OI 1h flat (-0.09%) tanpa short baru, momentum_1h nyaris nol dan ADX 24 baru di ambang — laju melambat", "Edge tipis (+11.9 bps net atas biaya 16 bps); jual pada micro-bounce ke EMA mid 5m lebih aman daripada di harga sekarang" ], "verdict": "approve", "key_risk": "Momentum 1h mendatar dengan OI flat: risiko short-squeeze balik ke VWAP 5m (235.6) sebelum leg turun berikutnya, sementara margin EV hanya ~12 bps", "better_entry": 234.49081576122288, "perubahan_material": null, "better_entry_anchor": "ema_mid_5m" }, "opened_at": "2026-08-29T07:05:09.330774+00:00", "risk_tier": "fixed_margin", "tick_size": 0.01, "confidence": 0.875360307531442, "exit_price": 232.40445922764, "margin_usd": 49.99814272266667, "paper_only": true, "stop_price": 232.18, "entry_price": 234.32968000000002, "exit_policy": "trail", "exit_shadow": { "ptp_mode": "partial_lalu_exit_nyata", "ptp_pnl_usd": 8.5676, "real_net_usd": 10.904, "tstop_pnl_usd": 10.904, "tstop_triggered": false }, "sizing_mode": "fixed_margin", "trail_armed": true, "usd_tp_mode": "trail", "close_reason": "trail_stop", "entry_thesis": { "setup": { "side": "short", "score": -0.8154704958543153, "strategy": "directional", "btc_regime": "trending_down", "confidence": 0.875360307531442, "score_note": "komponen skor ChartSkill yang sudah dihitung saat entry; mom_z tidak tersedia di jalur meta (null)", "gross_edge_bps": 27.50347858456241, "confidence_tier": "fixed_margin", "score_breakdown": { "adx": 24.212883702892146, "rsi": 46.18421507753723, "mom_z": null, "atr_pct": 0.002698170317566063, "momentum_1h": -0.004249532551419355, "trend_1h_atr": -1.4406986012770635, "trend_5m_atr": -1.5097239348481872, "volume_ratio": 1.1857505751451687, "vwap_position": -0.005473909368837443 }, "funding_edge_bps": 0.37500000000000006, "round_trip_cost_bps": 16.0 }, "action": "short", "levels": { "stop": 236.23, "entry": 234.32968000000002, "take_profit": 228.64, "mark_at_entry": 234.4 }, "reason": "selected short utility=7.80 bps/day (news x0.97)", "symbol": "TAOUSDT", "vetoes": [], "filters": [ { "name": "session_window", "pass": true, "value": { "hour_utc": 7, "window_utc": null } }, { "name": "btc_gate", "pass": true, "value": { "applies": true, "btc_return_7d": -0.0005059592186545947 } }, { "name": "funding_extreme", "pass": true, "value": { "notes": null, "pctile": 97.5, "pctile_hi": 0.0002732169999999999, "pctile_lo": -0.000149271, "funding_rate": 5e-05 } }, { "name": "vol_target", "pass": true, "value": { "vol_scale": 1.0, "realized_vol_daily_pct": 1.747409109816284 } }, { "name": "taker_flow_gate", "pass": true, "value": { "min_ratio": 0.52, "taker_ratio_4h": 0.47067616920867017 } }, { "name": "freshness_gate", "pass": true, "value": { "atr_1h": 2.8971428571428532, "dist_low_atr": -0.7041420118343177, "made_new_low": false, "dist_high_atr": -5.108481262327427, "made_new_high": false, "max_atr_above": 1.0 } }, { "name": "exhaustion", "pass": true, "value": { "notes": null, "enabled": true, "max_pct": 40.0, "move_24h_pct": -5.2524842831068845 } }, { "name": "overextended", "pass": true, "value": { "price": 234.32, "enabled": true, "max_pct": 40.0, "ema50_1h": 240.35511980728361, "ema_source": "chart_skill_1h", "dist_ema50_pct": -2.5109179334821596 } }, { "name": "atr_band", "pass": true, "value": { "enabled": true, "dead_pct": 1.2, "atr_pct_1h": 1.4317399474314758, "extreme_pct": 15.0 } }, { "name": "oi_crowd", "pass": true, "value": { "note": null, "enabled": true, "max_pct": 8.0, "oi_change_1h_pct": -0.09002986825109582 } }, { "name": "crowd_positioning", "pass": true, "value": { "note": null, "side": "short", "enabled": false, "ls_ratio": null, "threshold": 1.5, "delta_block": 0.3, "ls_delta_1h": null } }, { "name": "stop_truncated", "pass": true, "value": { "atr_pct": 0.002698170317566063, "cap_pct": 0.02, "enabled": true, "ratio_3atr_vs_cap": 0.4047255476349094 } }, { "name": "plateau", "pass": true, "value": { "count": 0, "enabled": false, "conditions": null, "min_conditions": null } }, { "name": "universe", "pass": true, "value": { "rank": 23, "size": 45, "quote_volume_24h": 129040387.11 } }, { "name": "regime", "pass": true, "value": { "note": null, "btc_regime": "trending_down", "choppy_no_trade": false } }, { "name": "symbol_recent_loss", "pass": true, "value": { "enabled": true, "block_hours": 24.0, "block_until": null, "manual_exempt": null } }, { "name": "news", "pass": true, "value": { "reason": "No transmission channel to TAO (Bittensor). The Sandbox item is a $700K bridge exploit on an unrelated Ethereum/Polygon-based gaming ecosystem with 1:1 repayment pledged; the Kalshi suit is US prediction-market regulation (SUI tag appears s", "binding": false, "decision": "allow", "risk_score": 6, "unavailable": false } }, { "name": "portfolio_heat", "pass": true, "value": { "cap_usd": 6.0, "risk_usd": 14.090741433182373, "open_risk_after_usd": 60.1432546430254, "open_risk_before_usd": 46.05251320984303 } }, { "name": "correlated_side", "pass": true, "value": { "cap": 3, "applies": true, "same_side_alt_count": 2 } } ], "expected": { "horizon_hours": 6.0, "expected_net_bps": 11.878478584562409, "utility_bps_per_day": 7.797317725737802 }, "strategy": "directional", "exit_plan": { "tp_hard_r": 3.0, "stop_price": 236.23, "exit_policy": "trail", "trail_arm_r": 1.0, "usd_tp_mode": "trail", "tp_hard_price": 228.64, "usd_tp_r_mult": 2.0, "usd_tp_abs_usd": 20.0, "trail_arm_price": 232.42936000000006, "daily_guardrails": { "loss_limit_usd": 100.0, "profit_target_usd": 100.0, "profit_floor_fraction": 0.5, "protect_profit_at_usd": 0.0 }, "trail_distance_r": 0.5, "time_stop_minutes": 360.0, "usd_trail_floor_usd": 14.0, "trail_distance_price": 0.9501599999999826, "usd_tp_threshold_usd": 20.0, "usd_tp_trail_giveback": 0.3 }, "risk_plan": { "qty": 6.401, "leverage": 30, "risk_usd": 14.090741433182373, "risk_tier": "fixed_margin", "margin_usd": 49.99814272266667, "notional_usd": 1499.9442816800001, "entry_fee_usd": 0.7499721408400001, "stop_distance": { "pct": 0.810960011552939, "price": 1.9003199999999651 }, "risk_modifiers": [ "risk_gates_bypassed" ], "leverage_reason": "safe_leverage: min(cap config 30x, floor(1/(stop_pct×2+0.005))) — estimasi likuidasi >= 2× jarak stop", "est_exit_fee_usd": 0.7499721408400001, "entry_slippage_usd": 0.4501183199998788, "liquidation_estimate": 294.0795723977135 }, "confidence": 0.875360307531442, "data_as_of": "2026-08-29T07:00:00+00:00", "assessments": { "news": { "model": "claude-opus-5", "usage": { "metering": { "unit": "credit", "usage": 0.23961565787728023, "unitPlural": "credits" }, "context_usage_pct": 0.8848999738693237 }, "reason": "No transmission channel to TAO (Bittensor). The Sandbox item is a $700K bridge exploit on an unrelated Ethereum/Polygon-based gaming ecosystem with 1:1 repayment pledged; the Kalshi suit is US prediction-market regulation (SUI tag appears spurious) with no link to Bittensor's chain, subnets, or venues; the Ledger item is an explicit denial of a hack for a patched Ethereum app. None affects Bittensor's network, subnet emissions, bridges, custodians, or exchange listings, so no veto-grade risk (hack, delisting, depeg, insolvency, chain halt, frozen withdrawals) is evidenced. All three were routed by keyword and are effectively irrelevant to the symbol. Note residual uncertainty: headline-level RSS only, one failed feed, and TAO-specific subnet or exchange announcements would not surface here", "symbol": "TAOUSDT", "decision": "allow", "evidence": [ { "id": "rss-c9a9253dbc95eb4a", "url": "https://cointelegraph.com/news/the-sandbox-compensation-sand-bridge-exploit?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound", "title": "The Sandbox pledges 1:1 repayment after $700K bridge exploit", "source": "cointelegraph", "tokens": [], "age_text": "1d", "age_hours": 24.0, "matched_by": "systemic_keyword", "published_at": "2026-08-28T05:40:48+00:00" }, { "id": "rss-dce9a2ba9164478b", "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/news-analysis/2026/08/27/connecticut-s-new-lawsuit-against-kalshi-piles-on-to-prediction-market-legal-fight", "title": "Connecticut's new lawsuit against Kalshi piles on to prediction market legal fight", "source": "coindesk", "tokens": [ "SUI" ], "age_text": "1d", "age_hours": 24.0, "matched_by": "systemic_keyword", "published_at": "2026-08-27T18:28:53+00:00" }, { "id": "rss-68aa705bc6aa47e8", "url": "https://decrypt.co/376750/no-ledger-wasnt-hacked-ethereum-app-exploit", "title": "No, Ledger Wasn’t Hacked: Vulnerable Ethereum App Was Patched Before Exploit, Company Says", "source": "decrypt", "tokens": [ "ETH" ], "age_text": "1d", "age_hours": 24.0, "matched_by": "systemic_keyword", "published_at": "2026-08-27T18:16:03+00:00" } ], "categories": [ "unknown" ], "confidence": 0.72, "risk_score": 6, "observed_at": "2026-08-29T07:05:19.010249+00:00", "unavailable": false, "corpus_count": 80, "evidence_ids": [ "rss-c9a9253dbc95eb4a", "rss-dce9a2ba9164478b", "rss-68aa705bc6aa47e8" ], "evidence_hash": "02a046b53073e33302277e0402f8114ea5546b8d569487298c1778f2d5591eec", "evidence_count": 3, "freshness_hours": 24.0, "agent_routed_count": 0 }, "carry": { "score": -0.03236113879958513, "skill": "carry", "action": "no_trade", "symbol": "TAOUSDT", "vetoes": [ "carry_quality_gate" ], "factors": { "funding_mean": 3.290803703703704e-05, "risk_buffer_bps": 9.541178583140054, "basis_change_vol": 0.00042063880513287886, "funding_edge_bps": 13.821375555555559, "current_basis_pct": 0.0, "annual_funding_pct": 3.6034300555555565, "funding_persistence": 0.8703703703703703, "round_trip_cost_bps": 8.0, "basis_convergence_bps": 0.0 }, "reasons": [ "annual funding 3.60%; persistence 87.0%", "carry net EV -3.7 bps over 14d" ], "eligible": false, "metadata": { "perp_price": 234.4, "spot_price": 234.4 }, "confidence": 0.9416666666666667, "data_as_of": "2026-08-29T07:05:09.330774+00:00", "horizon_hours": 336.0, "expected_net_bps": -3.7198030275844953 }, "directional": { "score": -0.8154704958543153, "skill": "directional", "action": "short", "symbol": "TAOUSDT", "vetoes": [], "factors": { "adx": 24.212883702892146, "rsi": 46.18421507753723, "flow_z": null, "atr_pct": 0.002698170317566063, "flow_term": 0.0, "kyle_lambda": null, "momentum_1h": -0.004249532551419355, "trend_1h_atr": -1.4406986012770635, "trend_5m_atr": -1.5097239348481872, "volume_ratio": 1.1857505751451687, "vwap_position": -0.005473909368837443, "gross_edge_bps": 27.50347858456241, "taker_imbalance": null, "funding_edge_bps": 0.37500000000000006, "round_trip_cost_bps": 16.0 }, "reasons": [ "short structure score -0.815", "1h trend aligned; BTC trending_down", "directional net EV +11.9 bps" ], "eligible": true, "metadata": { "atr": 0.6322352688120799, "frames": { "1h": { "vwap": null, "close": 233.6, "ema_mid": 237.8880633936655, "ema_fast": 235.5366391994448, "ema_slow": 240.35511980728361 }, "5m": { "vwap": 235.609706178037, "close": 234.32, "ema_mid": 234.49081576122288, "ema_fast": 234.0448349995922, "ema_slow": 234.999335717373 } }, "btc_regime": "trending_down", "mark_price": 234.4, "ema_periods": { "mid": 21, "fast": 9, "slow": 50 }, "candle_price": 234.32, "funding_rate": 5e-05, "orderflow_enabled": false }, "confidence": 0.875360307531442, "data_as_of": "2026-08-29T07:00:00+00:00", "horizon_hours": 6.0, "expected_net_bps": 11.878478584562409 }, "performance_carry": { "score": 0.0, "skill": "performance", "action": "allow", "symbol": "TAOUSDT", "vetoes": [], "factors": { "wins": 0.0, "losses": 0.0, "samples": 0.0, "expectancy_usd": 0.0, "minimum_samples": 8.0, "sample_maturity": 0.0, "posterior_win_rate": 0.5, "win_rate_lower_bound": 0.3210613300064863 }, "reasons": [ "shrunk win rate 50.0%; lower bound 32.1%; n=0/8 minimum" ], "eligible": true, "metadata": {}, "confidence": 0.15, "data_as_of": "2026-08-29T07:05:09.330774+00:00", "horizon_hours": 24.0, "expected_net_bps": 0.0 }, "performance_directional": { "score": 0.0, "skill": "performance", "action": "allow", "symbol": "TAOUSDT", "vetoes": [], "factors": { "wins": 0.0, "losses": 0.0, "samples": 0.0, "expectancy_usd": 0.0, "minimum_samples": 8.0, "sample_maturity": 0.0, "posterior_win_rate": 0.5, "win_rate_lower_bound": 0.3210613300064863 }, "reasons": [ "shrunk win rate 50.0%; lower bound 32.1%; n=0/8 minimum" ], "eligible": true, "metadata": {}, "confidence": 0.15, "data_as_of": "2026-08-29T07:05:09.330774+00:00", "horizon_hours": 24.0, "expected_net_bps": 0.0 } }, "captured_at": "2026-08-29T07:05:09.330774+00:00", "chart_setup": { "notes": [], "swing": { "low": { "price": 233.0, "formed_at": "2026-08-29T06:20:00+00:00", "distance_pct": 0.5706781115879934 }, "high": { "price": 234.29, "formed_at": "2026-08-29T06:35:00+00:00", "distance_pct": 0.016936275555948857 } }, "atr_pct": 0.002698170317566063, "support": { "kind": "swing_low", "price": 234.15, "distance_pct": 0.07673713431561774 }, "ema_vwap": { "1h": [ { "name": "EMA9", "value": 235.5366391994448, "relation": "di_bawah", "distance_pct": -0.5124294901833799 }, { "name": "EMA21", "value": 237.8880633936655, "relation": "di_bawah", "distance_pct": -1.4958225910549123 }, { "name": "EMA50", "value": 240.35511980728361, "relation": "di_bawah", "distance_pct": -2.5068905593168886 } ], "5m": [ { "name": "EMA9", "value": 234.0448349995922, "relation": "di_atas", "distance_pct": 0.12170531360297245 }, { "name": "EMA21", "value": 234.49081576122288, "relation": "di_bawah", "distance_pct": -0.06871730165625457 }, { "name": "EMA50", "value": 234.999335717373, "relation": "di_bawah", "distance_pct": -0.28496068524139895 }, { "name": "VWAP", "value": 235.609706178037, "relation": "di_bawah", "distance_pct": -0.5432824474004134 } ] }, "narrative": "Entry SHORT TAOUSDT di 234.33, di atas EMA9 dan di bawah EMA21/EMA50/VWAP pada frame 5m. Tren 1h turun (-1.44 ATR), searah posisi; rezim BTC trending_down. Level 1h: support terdekat swing_low 234.15 (+0.08%); resistance terdekat fvg_bear_bottom 235.39 (-0.45%). Volatilitas ATR 0.27% dari harga; pola candle 5m terakhir: tweezer_bottom.", "resistance": { "kind": "fvg_bear_bottom", "price": 235.39, "distance_pct": -0.4504524406304269 }, "candle_patterns": { "1h": [], "5m": [ "tweezer_bottom" ] } }, "horizon_hours": 6.0, "roi_scenarios": { "usd_tp": { "roa_pct": 4.453604559813792, "rom_pct": 38.501485877060375, "exit_price": 231.02031729808198, "r_multiple": 1.3661472641764607, "net_pnl_usd": 19.25002785916 }, "tp_hard": { "roa_pct": 7.98145635573512, "rom_pct": 68.9998236330973, "exit_price": 228.64, "r_multiple": 2.4483190229595184, "net_pnl_usd": 34.49863029846427 }, "fee_note": "net = gross(fill exit ber-slippage per sisi) − fee entry − fee exit taker; funding di luar skenario (belum diketahui saat entry); usd_tp ter-cap di ambang dolar → net = ambang − fee entry; usd_tp_mode=trail: sentuh ambang TIDAK menutup — trailing USD di-arm, lantai awal usd_trail_floor = ambang × (1 − giveback) dan naik mengikuti peak uPnL bersih (exit reason usd_trail_stop)", "stop_loss": { "roa_pct": -3.267630122197511, "rom_pct": -28.248717036185333, "exit_price": 236.23, "r_multiple": -1.002348522826052, "net_pnl_usd": -14.123833861074198 }, "trail_floor": { "roa_pct": 0.957046560755937, "rom_pct": 8.27368351809271, "exit_price": 233.37952000000004, "r_multiple": 0.2935749061476801, "net_pnl_usd": 4.136688093797742 }, "usd_trail_floor": { "roa_pct": 3.065470082586662, "rom_pct": 26.501040113942263, "exit_price": 231.95692141280918, "r_multiple": 0.9403357461345099, "net_pnl_usd": 13.25002785916 } }, "snapshot_kind": "entry_snapshot", "thesis_version": 2, "breakeven_price": 234.0252598483324, "expected_net_bps": 11.878478584562409, "funding_projection": { "note": "estimasi = rate saat entry × notional × settlement dalam max_hold; rate berubah tiap interval, interval riil simbol diinferensi dari history (fallback config)", "direction": "terima", "est_usd_paid": -0.056247910563000006, "horizon_hours": 6.0, "interval_hours": 8.0, "est_settlements": 0.75, "interval_source": "config_fallback", "funding_rate_at_entry": 5e-05 }, "utility_bps_per_day": 7.797317725737802 }, "funding_paid": -0.07442488600930901, "last_mark_at": "2026-08-29T09:05:34.952708+00:00", "notional_usd": 1499.9442816800001, "trail_peak_r": 1.633880962153781, "working_type": "MARK_PRICE", "ambiguous_bar": false, "current_price": 232.3347588, "price_move_pct": 0.8215863958675795, "risk_modifiers": [ "risk_gates_bypassed" ], "unrealized_pnl": 12.769490601200138, "equity_at_entry": 432.2347797300813, "exit_mark_price": 232.3347588, "last_funding_at": "2026-08-29T08:00:00+00:00", "usd_trail_armed": false, "barrier_evidence": { "series": "mark", "trigger": "trail_stop", "last_low": null, "mark_low": 232.3347588, "last_high": null, "mark_high": 232.3347588, "fill_price": 232.3347588, "bar_open_ms": 1787994300000, "both_touched": false }, "trail_r_distance": 1.9003199999999651, "usd_peak_net_usd": null, "exit_shadow_state": { "ptp": { "at": null, "open": true, "r_mult": 0.8, "pnl_usd": null, "fraction": 0.75, "part_done": true, "realized_usd": 6.404073469209043 }, "tstop": { "at": null, "open": true, "min_r": 0.5, "minutes": 120.0, "pnl_usd": null }, "peak_r": 1.633880962153781 }, "last_processed_ts": "2026-08-29T09:04:59.999000+00:00", "take_profit_price": 228.64, "r_multiple_realized": 0.7738400771168776, "utility_bps_per_day": 7.797317725737802, "liquidation_estimate": 297.6804829311712, "return_on_margin_pct": 21.808770973295587, "usd_tp_threshold_usd": 20.0, "return_on_account_pct": 2.5226985306682317, "usd_tp_trail_giveback": 0.3, "safe_leverage_suggested": 30 }, { "qty": 1.859, "side": "long", "event": "meta_close", "shadow": { "bars": 361, "last": { "at": "2026-08-29T20:47:59.999000+00:00", "price": 834.6, "net_usd": 50.18796628624367 }, "complete": true, "max_adverse": { "at": "2026-08-29T17:29:00+00:00", "price": 825.53511582, "net_usd": 33.34982536363318, "rom_pct": 66.72888785900456 }, "max_favorable": { "at": "2026-08-29T14:47:00+00:00", "price": 847.99838945, "net_usd": 75.07564992514446, "rom_pct": 150.21711718645963 }, "vs_actual_usd": 28.807036235274325, "follow_minutes": 360, "checked_through": "2026-08-29T20:47:59.999000+00:00" }, "source": "live", "symbol": "ZECUSDT", "net_pnl": 46.268613689870136, "exit_fee": 0.7735673151635001, "leverage": 30, "risk_usd": 18.03463398953519, "strategy": "directional", "trade_id": "6e8e11a2bde0465bb80c1fae27709a43", "closed_at": "2026-08-29T14:47:26.551907+00:00", "entry_fee": 0.7496713889665, "gross_pnl": 47.79185239400013, "llm_judge": { "model": "claude-opus-5", "score": 54.0, "reasons": [ "Basis 1h masih rapat (trend_1h_atr 0.05, EMA 1h 797.8-798.4 menyatu, move 24h +0.94%) - breakout segar dari konsolidasi, bukan distribusi pasca-pump", "Bahan bakar membaik sejak 21 menit lalu (memburuk=false): volume_ratio 0.83 -> 2.30, OI 1h +0.54% -> +0.91%, harga hanya +0.23%", "Cacat flow: taker 0.513 masih di bawah gerbang 0.52 (volume besar tanpa dominasi agresor beli) dan funding di persentil 97.5 = sisi long padat", "Entry telat intraday: 2.11 ATR di atas basis 5m, ~1% di atas VWAP 5m, RSI 69.5, dan BTC trending_down jadi hambatan" ], "verdict": "approve", "key_risk": "Ekspansi volume tanpa konfirmasi taker di tengah long yang padat (funding p97.5) saat BTC turun - rawan breakout gagal dan sweep balik ke VWAP 5m", "better_entry": 805.2183490053005, "perubahan_material": { "alasan": [], "memburuk": false, "oi_1h_pct": { "dulu": 0.54, "kini": 0.91 }, "volume_ratio": { "dulu": 0.83, "kini": 2.3, "perubahan_pct": 178.4 }, "taker_ratio_4h": { "dulu": 0.513, "kini": 0.513 }, "harga_berubah_pct": 0.23 }, "better_entry_anchor": "ema_fast_5m" }, "opened_at": "2026-08-29T11:23:19.930888+00:00", "risk_tier": "fixed_margin", "tick_size": 0.01, "confidence": 0.7957797441831421, "exit_price": 832.240253, "margin_usd": 49.97809259776667, "paper_only": true, "stop_price": 818.83, "entry_price": 806.531887, "exit_policy": "trail", "exit_shadow": { "ptp_mode": "partial_lalu_breakeven", "ptp_pnl_usd": 7.6937, "real_net_usd": 46.2686, "tstop_pnl_usd": 46.2686, "tstop_triggered": false }, "sizing_mode": "fixed_margin", "trail_armed": true, "usd_tp_mode": "trail", "close_reason": "take_profit", "entry_thesis": { "setup": { "side": "long", "score": 0.6337965511593545, "strategy": "directional", "btc_regime": "trending_down", "confidence": 0.7957797441831421, "score_note": "komponen skor ChartSkill yang sudah dihitung saat entry; mom_z tidak tersedia di jalur meta (null)", "gross_edge_bps": 28.27807761824044, "confidence_tier": "fixed_margin", "score_breakdown": { "adx": 29.297910261374305, "rsi": 69.50969644033259, "mom_z": null, "atr_pct": 0.0035693570836273646, "momentum_1h": 0.0051122582250138215, "trend_1h_atr": 0.054756424617042, "trend_5m_atr": 2.1076345143074766, "volume_ratio": 2.302456726369371, "vwap_position": 0.010021776134645926 }, "funding_edge_bps": -0.7500000000000001, "round_trip_cost_bps": 16.0 }, "action": "long", "levels": { "stop": 797.88, "entry": 806.531887, "take_profit": 832.49, "mark_at_entry": 806.29 }, "reason": "selected long utility=6.73 bps/day (news x0.95)", "symbol": "ZECUSDT", "vetoes": [], "filters": [ { "name": "session_window", "pass": true, "value": { "hour_utc": 11, "window_utc": null } }, { "name": "btc_gate", "pass": true, "value": { "applies": true, "btc_return_7d": 0.00814153037906773 } }, { "name": "funding_extreme", "pass": true, "value": { "notes": null, "pctile": 97.5, "pctile_hi": 0.000201395, "pctile_lo": -0.00011905599999999998, "funding_rate": 0.0001 } }, { "name": "vol_target", "pass": true, "value": { "vol_scale": 1.0, "realized_vol_daily_pct": 1.5589512710640632 } }, { "name": "taker_flow_gate", "pass": true, "value": { "min_ratio": 0.52, "taker_ratio_4h": 0.5125793337547067 } }, { "name": "freshness_gate", "pass": true, "value": { "atr_1h": 9.579285714285716, "dist_low_atr": -3.0670345238982915, "made_new_low": false, "dist_high_atr": -1.3257773469539975, "made_new_high": false, "max_atr_above": 1.0 } }, { "name": "exhaustion", "pass": true, "value": { "notes": null, "enabled": true, "max_pct": 40.0, "move_24h_pct": 0.9435382685069049 } }, { "name": "overextended", "pass": true, "value": { "price": 808.06, "enabled": true, "max_pct": 40.0, "ema50_1h": 797.7798738303054, "ema_source": "chart_skill_1h", "dist_ema50_pct": 1.2885918167297783 } }, { "name": "atr_band", "pass": true, "value": { "enabled": true, "dead_pct": 1.2, "atr_pct_1h": 1.4420122890403446, "extreme_pct": 15.0 } }, { "name": "oi_crowd", "pass": true, "value": { "note": null, "enabled": true, "max_pct": 8.0, "oi_change_1h_pct": 0.9096839512329202 } }, { "name": "crowd_positioning", "pass": true, "value": { "note": null, "side": "long", "enabled": false, "ls_ratio": null, "threshold": 0.67, "delta_block": 0.3, "ls_delta_1h": null } }, { "name": "stop_truncated", "pass": true, "value": { "atr_pct": 0.0035693570836273646, "cap_pct": 0.02, "enabled": true, "ratio_3atr_vs_cap": 0.5354035625441047 } }, { "name": "plateau", "pass": true, "value": { "count": 0, "enabled": false, "conditions": null, "min_conditions": null } }, { "name": "universe", "pass": true, "value": { "rank": 5, "size": 42, "quote_volume_24h": 1148915245.53 } }, { "name": "regime", "pass": true, "value": { "note": null, "btc_regime": "trending_down", "choppy_no_trade": false } }, { "name": "symbol_recent_loss", "pass": true, "value": { "enabled": true, "block_hours": 24.0, "block_until": null, "manual_exempt": null } }, { "name": "news", "pass": true, "value": { "reason": "No fresh evidence of a severe ZEC-specific or shared-infrastructure event. rss-d946d4ae04386909 names ZEC directly but is Grayscale research commentary on privacy demand and network effects, i.e. a price/narrative opinion with no operationa", "binding": false, "decision": "allow", "risk_score": 10, "unavailable": false } }, { "name": "portfolio_heat", "pass": true, "value": { "cap_usd": 6.0, "risk_usd": 18.03463398953519, "open_risk_after_usd": 18.03463398953519, "open_risk_before_usd": 0.0 } }, { "name": "correlated_side", "pass": true, "value": { "cap": 3, "applies": true, "same_side_alt_count": 0 } } ], "expected": { "horizon_hours": 6.0, "expected_net_bps": 11.528077618240442, "utility_bps_per_day": 6.725779283888349 }, "strategy": "directional", "exit_plan": { "tp_hard_r": 3.0, "stop_price": 797.88, "exit_policy": "trail", "trail_arm_r": 1.0, "usd_tp_mode": "trail", "tp_hard_price": 832.49, "usd_tp_r_mult": 2.0, "usd_tp_abs_usd": 20.0, "trail_arm_price": 815.183774, "daily_guardrails": { "loss_limit_usd": 100.0, "profit_target_usd": 100.0, "profit_floor_fraction": 0.5, "protect_profit_at_usd": 0.0 }, "trail_distance_r": 0.5, "time_stop_minutes": 360.0, "usd_trail_floor_usd": 14.0, "trail_distance_price": 4.325943499999994, "usd_tp_threshold_usd": 20.0, "usd_tp_trail_giveback": 0.3 }, "risk_plan": { "qty": 1.859, "leverage": 30, "risk_usd": 18.03463398953519, "risk_tier": "fixed_margin", "margin_usd": 49.97809259776667, "notional_usd": 1499.342777933, "entry_fee_usd": 0.7496713889665, "stop_distance": { "pct": 1.0727272088623556, "price": 8.651886999999988 }, "risk_modifiers": [ "risk_gates_bypassed" ], "leverage_reason": "safe_leverage: min(cap config 30x, floor(1/(stop_pct×2+0.005))) — estimasi likuidasi >= 2× jarak stop", "est_exit_fee_usd": 0.7496713889665, "entry_slippage_usd": 0.44966793300003666, "liquidation_estimate": 578.10482683478 }, "confidence": 0.7957797441831421, "data_as_of": "2026-08-29T11:15:00+00:00", "assessments": { "news": { "model": "claude-opus-5", "usage": { "metering": { "unit": "credit", "usage": 0.2804002644776119, "unitPlural": "credits" }, "context_usage_pct": 0.9043999910354614 }, "reason": "No fresh evidence of a severe ZEC-specific or shared-infrastructure event. rss-d946d4ae04386909 names ZEC directly but is Grayscale research commentary on privacy demand and network effects, i.e. a price/narrative opinion with no operational transmission channel to Zcash chain, custody, or venue access. rss-c9a9253dbc95eb4a is a $700K Sandbox bridge exploit confined to the SAND ecosystem's own bridge; Zcash has no dependency on that bridge, so the routed evidence is irrelevant here. rss-c9a9253dbc95eb4a and rss-dce9a2ba9164478b were routed by systemic keyword only: the Kalshi/Connecticut prediction-market suit involves US event-contract venues, not ZEC listings, custodians, or the Electric Coin Company/Zcash Foundation. No hack, delisting, depeg, insolvency, chain halt, or withdrawal freez", "symbol": "ZECUSDT", "decision": "allow", "evidence": [ { "id": "rss-d946d4ae04386909", "url": "https://cointelegraph.com/markets/zcash-bitcoin-network-effects-grayscale-privacy?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound", "title": "Grayscale says Zcash can challenge Bitcoin’s network effects as privacy demand grows", "source": "cointelegraph", "tokens": [ "BTC", "ZEC" ], "age_text": "1d", "age_hours": 24.0, "matched_by": "ticker_match", "published_at": "2026-08-27T18:51:02+00:00" }, { "id": "rss-c9a9253dbc95eb4a", "url": "https://cointelegraph.com/news/the-sandbox-compensation-sand-bridge-exploit?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound", "title": "The Sandbox pledges 1:1 repayment after $700K bridge exploit", "source": "cointelegraph", "tokens": [], "age_text": "1d", "age_hours": 24.0, "matched_by": "systemic_keyword", "published_at": "2026-08-28T05:40:48+00:00" }, { "id": "rss-dce9a2ba9164478b", "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/news-analysis/2026/08/27/connecticut-s-new-lawsuit-against-kalshi-piles-on-to-prediction-market-legal-fight", "title": "Connecticut's new lawsuit against Kalshi piles on to prediction market legal fight", "source": "coindesk", "tokens": [ "SUI" ], "age_text": "1d", "age_hours": 24.0, "matched_by": "systemic_keyword", "published_at": "2026-08-27T18:28:53+00:00" } ], "categories": [ "unknown" ], "confidence": 0.72, "risk_score": 10, "observed_at": "2026-08-29T11:23:30.248272+00:00", "unavailable": false, "corpus_count": 80, "evidence_ids": [ "rss-d946d4ae04386909", "rss-c9a9253dbc95eb4a", "rss-dce9a2ba9164478b" ], "evidence_hash": "ac5f61326282eebc34ba8d877c67ceb96b7a65b131d5475ce22321e5fbbc3744", "evidence_count": 3, "freshness_hours": 24.0, "agent_routed_count": 1 }, "carry": { "score": 0.10539505771093878, "skill": "carry", "action": "carry", "symbol": "ZECUSDT", "vetoes": [], "factors": { "funding_mean": 6.429600000000002e-05, "risk_buffer_bps": 7.190714965433136, "basis_change_vol": 0.0003170146879396802, "funding_edge_bps": 27.004320000000007, "current_basis_pct": -0.03347550089267681, "annual_funding_pct": 7.040412000000002, "funding_persistence": 0.8962962962962963, "round_trip_cost_bps": 8.0, "basis_convergence_bps": 0.0 }, "reasons": [ "annual funding 7.04%; persistence 89.6%", "carry net EV +11.8 bps over 14d" ], "eligible": true, "metadata": { "perp_price": 806.29, "spot_price": 806.56 }, "confidence": 0.95, "data_as_of": "2026-08-29T11:23:19.930888+00:00", "horizon_hours": 336.0, "expected_net_bps": 11.813605034566871 }, "directional": { "score": 0.6337965511593545, "skill": "directional", "action": "long", "symbol": "ZECUSDT", "vetoes": [], "factors": { "adx": 29.297910261374305, "rsi": 69.50969644033259, "flow_z": null, "atr_pct": 0.0035693570836273646, "flow_term": 0.0, "kyle_lambda": null, "momentum_1h": 0.0051122582250138215, "trend_1h_atr": 0.054756424617042, "trend_5m_atr": 2.1076345143074766, "volume_ratio": 2.302456726369371, "vwap_position": 0.010021776134645926, "gross_edge_bps": 28.27807761824044, "taker_imbalance": null, "funding_edge_bps": -0.7500000000000001, "round_trip_cost_bps": 16.0 }, "reasons": [ "long structure score +0.634", "1h trend aligned; BTC trending_down", "directional net EV +11.5 bps" ], "eligible": true, "metadata": { "atr": 2.884254684995928, "frames": { "1h": { "vwap": null, "close": 804.52, "ema_mid": 798.2500700270417, "ema_fast": 798.4151182944804, "ema_slow": 797.7798738303054 }, "5m": { "vwap": 800.0421566081933, "close": 808.06, "ema_mid": 802.3625810849805, "ema_fast": 805.2183490053005, "ema_slow": 799.1393942831501 } }, "btc_regime": "trending_down", "mark_price": 806.29, "ema_periods": { "mid": 21, "fast": 9, "slow": 50 }, "candle_price": 808.06, "funding_rate": 0.0001, "orderflow_enabled": false }, "confidence": 0.7957797441831421, "data_as_of": "2026-08-29T11:15:00+00:00", "horizon_hours": 6.0, "expected_net_bps": 11.528077618240442 }, "performance_carry": { "score": 0.0, "skill": "performance", "action": "allow", "symbol": "ZECUSDT", "vetoes": [], "factors": { "wins": 0.0, "losses": 0.0, "samples": 0.0, "expectancy_usd": 0.0, "minimum_samples": 8.0, "sample_maturity": 0.0, "posterior_win_rate": 0.5, "win_rate_lower_bound": 0.3210613300064863 }, "reasons": [ "shrunk win rate 50.0%; lower bound 32.1%; n=0/8 minimum" ], "eligible": true, "metadata": {}, "confidence": 0.15, "data_as_of": "2026-08-29T11:23:19.930888+00:00", "horizon_hours": 24.0, "expected_net_bps": 0.0 }, "performance_directional": { "score": 0.0, "skill": "performance", "action": "allow", "symbol": "ZECUSDT", "vetoes": [], "factors": { "wins": 0.0, "losses": 0.0, "samples": 0.0, "expectancy_usd": 0.0, "minimum_samples": 8.0, "sample_maturity": 0.0, "posterior_win_rate": 0.5, "win_rate_lower_bound": 0.3210613300064863 }, "reasons": [ "shrunk win rate 50.0%; lower bound 32.1%; n=0/8 minimum" ], "eligible": true, "metadata": {}, "confidence": 0.15, "data_as_of": "2026-08-29T11:23:19.930888+00:00", "horizon_hours": 24.0, "expected_net_bps": 0.0 } }, "captured_at": "2026-08-29T11:23:19.930888+00:00", "chart_setup": { "notes": [], "swing": { "low": { "price": 803.27, "formed_at": "2026-08-29T11:05:00+00:00", "distance_pct": 0.40607603918981183 }, "high": { "price": 809.64, "formed_at": "2026-08-29T10:50:00+00:00", "distance_pct": -0.3838882713304682 } }, "atr_pct": 0.0035693570836273646, "support": { "kind": "fvg_bear_top", "price": 806.37, "distance_pct": 0.02007601969319032 }, "ema_vwap": { "1h": [ { "name": "EMA9", "value": 798.4151182944804, "relation": "di_atas", "distance_pct": 1.0166100966196707 }, { "name": "EMA21", "value": 798.2500700270417, "relation": "di_atas", "distance_pct": 1.0374965545167707 }, { "name": "EMA50", "value": 797.7798738303054, "relation": "di_atas", "distance_pct": 1.0970461222184462 } ], "5m": [ { "name": "EMA9", "value": 805.2183490053005, "relation": "di_atas", "distance_pct": 0.1631281746525143 }, { "name": "EMA21", "value": 802.3625810849805, "relation": "di_atas", "distance_pct": 0.5196286583282045 }, { "name": "EMA50", "value": 799.1393942831501, "relation": "di_atas", "distance_pct": 0.925056725989736 }, { "name": "VWAP", "value": 800.0421566081933, "relation": "di_atas", "distance_pct": 0.8111735535687429 } ] }, "narrative": "Entry LONG ZECUSDT di 806.532, di atas EMA9/EMA21/EMA50/VWAP pada frame 5m. Tren 1h naik (+0.05 ATR), searah posisi; rezim BTC trending_down. Level 1h: support terdekat fvg_bear_top 806.37 (+0.02%); resistance terdekat london_high 809.29 (-0.34%). Volatilitas ATR 0.36% dari harga; pola candle 5m terakhir: shooting_star, pin_up.", "resistance": { "kind": "london_high", "price": 809.29, "distance_pct": -0.34080650940948 }, "candle_patterns": { "1h": [ "three_soldiers" ], "5m": [ "shooting_star", "pin_up" ] } }, "horizon_hours": 6.0, "roi_scenarios": { "usd_tp": { "roa_pct": 4.413769955070861, "rom_pct": 38.51753360410102, "exit_price": 817.9445922790682, "r_multiple": 1.0674088879321715, "net_pnl_usd": 19.2503286110335 }, "tp_hard": { "roa_pct": 10.608599005945237, "rom_pct": 92.57779015747732, "exit_price": 832.49, "r_multiple": 2.565542151657641, "net_pnl_usd": 46.268613689870136 }, "fee_note": "net = gross(fill exit ber-slippage per sisi) − fee entry − fee exit taker; funding di luar skenario (belum diketahui saat entry); usd_tp ter-cap di ambang dolar → net = ambang − fee entry; usd_tp_mode=trail: sentuh ambang TIDAK menutup — trailing USD di-arm, lantai awal usd_trail_floor = ambang × (1 − giveback) dan naik mengikuti peak uPnL bersih (exit reason usd_trail_stop)", "stop_loss": { "roa_pct": -4.131656995419524, "rom_pct": -36.05562564013049, "exit_price": 797.88, "r_multiple": -0.9991837915637649, "net_pnl_usd": -18.01991396912852 }, "trail_floor": { "roa_pct": 1.3955473938413676, "rom_pct": 12.178487820065262, "exit_price": 810.8578305, "r_multiple": 0.33749373140878597, "net_pnl_usd": 6.086575919719952 }, "usd_trail_floor": { "roa_pct": 3.0380729337095524, "rom_pct": 26.512273522870718, "exit_price": 814.7144669742629, "r_multiple": 0.7347156930782272, "net_pnl_usd": 13.2503286110335 } }, "snapshot_kind": "entry_snapshot", "thesis_version": 2, "breakeven_price": 807.5810966836823, "expected_net_bps": 11.528077618240442, "funding_projection": { "note": "estimasi = rate saat entry × notional × settlement dalam max_hold; rate berubah tiap interval, interval riil simbol diinferensi dari history (fallback config)", "direction": "bayar", "est_usd_paid": 0.112450708344975, "horizon_hours": 6.0, "interval_hours": 8.0, "est_settlements": 0.75, "interval_source": "config_fallback", "funding_rate_at_entry": 0.0001 }, "utility_bps_per_day": 6.725779283888349 }, "funding_paid": 0.0, "last_mark_at": "2026-08-29T14:47:26.551907+00:00", "notional_usd": 1499.342777933, "trail_peak_r": 1.9224697375266262, "working_type": "MARK_PRICE", "ambiguous_bar": false, "current_price": 847.99838945, "price_move_pct": 3.187520098631902, "risk_modifiers": [ "risk_gates_bypassed" ], "unrealized_pnl": 77.08622805455002, "equity_at_entry": 436.14254496696907, "exit_mark_price": 832.49, "usd_trail_armed": true, "barrier_evidence": { "series": "mark", "trigger": "take_profit", "last_low": null, "mark_low": 847.99838945, "last_high": null, "mark_high": 847.99838945, "fill_price": 832.49, "bar_open_ms": 1788014820000, "both_touched": false }, "trail_r_distance": 8.651886999999988, "usd_peak_net_usd": 29.69674887193873, "exit_shadow_state": { "ptp": { "at": "2026-08-29T12:53:59.999000+00:00", "open": false, "r_mult": 0.8, "reason": "breakeven_stop", "pnl_usd": 8.443346634609812, "fraction": 0.75, "part_done": true, "realized_usd": 8.743158964842204 }, "tstop": { "at": null, "open": true, "min_r": 0.5, "minutes": 120.0, "pnl_usd": null }, "peak_r": 1.9224697375266262 }, "last_processed_ts": "2026-08-29T14:46:59.999000+00:00", "take_profit_price": 832.49, "r_multiple_realized": 2.565542151657641, "utility_bps_per_day": 6.725779283888349, "liquidation_estimate": 578.10482683478, "return_on_margin_pct": 92.57779015747732, "usd_tp_threshold_usd": 20.0, "return_on_account_pct": 10.608599005945237, "usd_tp_trail_giveback": 0.3, "safe_leverage_suggested": 30 }, { "qty": 310723.0, "side": "long", "event": "meta_close", "shadow": { "bars": 360, "last": { "at": "2026-08-30T03:21:59.999000+00:00", "price": 0.00498757, "net_usd": 47.6888550733393 }, "complete": true, "max_adverse": { "at": "2026-08-29T21:32:00+00:00", "price": 0.00488984, "net_usd": 17.346185295327373, "rom_pct": 34.69239226740044 }, "max_favorable": { "at": "2026-08-29T21:54:00+00:00", "price": 0.00511631, "net_usd": 87.659338110495, "rom_pct": 175.31878576491263 }, "vs_actual_usd": 69.02157902742067, "follow_minutes": 360, "checked_through": "2026-08-30T03:21:59.999000+00:00" }, "source": "live", "symbol": "PUMPUSDT", "net_pnl": 18.637759083074325, "exit_fee": 0.7601110792457, "leverage": 30, "risk_usd": 22.552538540216354, "strategy": "directional", "trade_id": "375933bd3de747658bdbb99d1861dc32", "closed_at": "2026-08-29T21:22:20.676073+00:00", "entry_fee": 0.7499995313797001, "gross_pnl": 20.223095731999724, "llm_judge": { "model": "claude-opus-5", "score": 48.0, "reasons": [ "Volume ekspansi 1.63 (dari 0.42) dan OI 1h berbalik positif — bahan bakar membaik sejak penilaian lalu, tidak memburuk", "Entry telat sedang: +2.9% di atas VWAP 5m dan +2.6% di atas EMA50 1h, bukan masuk di basis", "Konfirmasi flow lemah: taker 0.525 nyaris di gate, OI hampir datar, ADX 18.6 tanpa tren kuat", "Funding persentil 97.5 = sisi long padat, ditambah BTC trending_down sebagai hambatan arah" ], "verdict": "approve", "key_risk": "Long padat funding di bawah regime BTC turun dengan agresor cuma 0.525 — pullback cepat ke EMA/VWAP bisa menyapu entry yang sudah 3% di atas VWAP", "better_entry": 0.004776942010315784, "perubahan_material": { "alasan": [], "memburuk": false, "oi_1h_pct": { "dulu": -0.08, "kini": 0.06 }, "volume_ratio": { "dulu": 0.42, "kini": 1.63, "perubahan_pct": 284.6 }, "taker_ratio_4h": { "dulu": 0.528, "kini": 0.525 }, "harga_berubah_pct": 0.27 }, "better_entry_anchor": "ema_slow_5m" }, "opened_at": "2026-08-29T18:40:38.074508+00:00", "risk_tier": "fixed_margin", "tick_size": 1e-06, "confidence": 0.6928530220912954, "exit_price": 0.0048925318, "margin_usd": 49.99996875864667, "paper_only": true, "stop_price": 0.004888, "entry_price": 0.004827447800000001, "exit_policy": "trail", "exit_shadow": { "ptp_mode": "partial_lalu_breakeven", "ptp_pnl_usd": 10.4284, "real_net_usd": 18.6378, "tstop_pnl_usd": 18.6378, "tstop_triggered": false }, "sizing_mode": "fixed_margin", "trail_armed": true, "usd_tp_mode": "trail", "close_reason": "usd_trail_stop", "entry_thesis": { "setup": { "side": "long", "score": 0.5241559379592495, "strategy": "directional", "btc_regime": "trending_down", "confidence": 0.6928530220912954, "score_note": "komponen skor ChartSkill yang sudah dihitung saat entry; mom_z tidak tersedia di jalur meta (null)", "gross_edge_bps": 30.018523622186173, "confidence_tier": "fixed_margin", "score_breakdown": { "adx": 18.641814053427037, "rsi": 60.52067171174362, "mom_z": null, "atr_pct": 0.004581617255210027, "momentum_1h": 0.0029106029106029663, "trend_1h_atr": 0.25937994143425946, "trend_5m_atr": 1.0613384460531026, "volume_ratio": 1.6345992690267614, "vwap_position": 0.029352766057458315 }, "funding_edge_bps": -0.37500000000000006, "round_trip_cost_bps": 16.0 }, "action": "long", "levels": { "stop": 0.004761, "entry": 0.004827447800000001, "take_profit": 0.005026, "mark_at_entry": 0.004826 }, "reason": "selected long utility=7.10 bps/day (news x0.97)", "symbol": "PUMPUSDT", "vetoes": [], "filters": [ { "name": "session_window", "pass": true, "value": { "hour_utc": 18, "window_utc": null } }, { "name": "btc_gate", "pass": true, "value": { "applies": true, "btc_return_7d": 0.010141132266862751 } }, { "name": "funding_extreme", "pass": true, "value": { "notes": null, "pctile": 97.5, "pctile_hi": 0.0003056419999999997, "pctile_lo": -0.00019167699999999996, "funding_rate": 5e-05 } }, { "name": "vol_target", "pass": true, "value": { "vol_scale": 1.0, "realized_vol_daily_pct": 1.384978833699911 } }, { "name": "taker_flow_gate", "pass": true, "value": { "min_ratio": 0.52, "taker_ratio_4h": 0.5251053460001915 } }, { "name": "freshness_gate", "pass": true, "value": { "atr_1h": 7.778571428571451e-05, "dist_low_atr": -4.808080808080797, "made_new_low": false, "dist_high_atr": -1.0156106519742865, "made_new_high": false, "max_atr_above": 1.0 } }, { "name": "exhaustion", "pass": true, "value": { "notes": null, "enabled": true, "max_pct": 40.0, "move_24h_pct": 1.9854824935952253 } }, { "name": "overextended", "pass": true, "value": { "price": 0.004824, "enabled": true, "max_pct": 40.0, "ema50_1h": 0.004702110422223375, "ema_source": "chart_skill_1h", "dist_ema50_pct": 2.5922312925818147 } }, { "name": "atr_band", "pass": true, "value": { "enabled": true, "dead_pct": 1.2, "atr_pct_1h": 1.9794570926682349, "extreme_pct": 15.0 } }, { "name": "oi_crowd", "pass": true, "value": { "note": null, "enabled": true, "max_pct": 8.0, "oi_change_1h_pct": 0.06083480045548928 } }, { "name": "crowd_positioning", "pass": true, "value": { "note": null, "side": "long", "enabled": false, "ls_ratio": null, "threshold": 0.67, "delta_block": 0.3, "ls_delta_1h": null } }, { "name": "stop_truncated", "pass": true, "value": { "atr_pct": 0.004581617255210027, "cap_pct": 0.02, "enabled": true, "ratio_3atr_vs_cap": 0.6872425882815041 } }, { "name": "plateau", "pass": true, "value": { "count": 0, "enabled": false, "conditions": null, "min_conditions": null } }, { "name": "universe", "pass": true, "value": { "rank": 19, "size": 35, "quote_volume_24h": 147954335.012127 } }, { "name": "regime", "pass": true, "value": { "note": null, "btc_regime": "trending_down", "choppy_no_trade": false } }, { "name": "symbol_recent_loss", "pass": true, "value": { "enabled": true, "block_hours": 24.0, "block_until": null, "manual_exempt": null } }, { "name": "news", "pass": true, "value": { "reason": "The single item is a $700K bridge exploit at The Sandbox (SAND, Ethereum/Polygon metaverse project) with 1:1 user repayment pledged. It reached this queue via the systemic_keyword 'bridge exploit', not via any link to PUMP. No shared chain ", "binding": false, "decision": "allow", "risk_score": 5, "unavailable": false } }, { "name": "portfolio_heat", "pass": true, "value": { "cap_usd": 6.0, "risk_usd": 22.552538540216354, "open_risk_after_usd": 22.552538540216354, "open_risk_before_usd": 0.0 } }, { "name": "correlated_side", "pass": true, "value": { "cap": 3, "applies": true, "same_side_alt_count": 0 } } ], "expected": { "horizon_hours": 6.0, "expected_net_bps": 13.643523622186173, "utility_bps_per_day": 7.10076557319965 }, "strategy": "directional", "exit_plan": { "tp_hard_r": 3.0, "stop_price": 0.004761, "exit_policy": "trail", "trail_arm_r": 1.0, "usd_tp_mode": "trail", "tp_hard_price": 0.005026, "usd_tp_r_mult": 2.0, "usd_tp_abs_usd": 20.0, "trail_arm_price": 0.004893895600000002, "daily_guardrails": { "loss_limit_usd": 100.0, "profit_target_usd": 100.0, "profit_floor_fraction": 0.5, "protect_profit_at_usd": 0.0 }, "trail_distance_r": 0.5, "time_stop_minutes": 360.0, "usd_trail_floor_usd": 14.0, "trail_distance_price": 3.32239000000005e-05, "usd_tp_threshold_usd": 20.0, "usd_tp_trail_giveback": 0.3 }, "risk_plan": { "qty": 310723.0, "leverage": 30, "risk_usd": 22.552538540216354, "risk_tier": "fixed_margin", "margin_usd": 49.99996875864667, "notional_usd": 1499.9990627594002, "entry_fee_usd": 0.7499995313797001, "stop_distance": { "pct": 1.3764581773416793, "price": 6.6447800000001e-05 }, "risk_modifiers": [ "risk_gates_bypassed" ], "leverage_reason": "safe_leverage: min(cap config 30x, floor(1/(stop_pct×2+0.005))) — estimasi likuidasi >= 2× jarak stop", "est_exit_fee_usd": 0.7499995313797001, "entry_slippage_usd": 0.44986475940005577, "liquidation_estimate": 0.003310421645918675 }, "confidence": 0.6928530220912954, "data_as_of": "2026-08-29T18:35:00+00:00", "assessments": { "news": { "model": "claude-opus-5", "usage": { "metering": { "unit": "credit", "usage": 0.22130107452736322, "unitPlural": "credits" }, "context_usage_pct": 0.8387000560760498 }, "reason": "The single item is a $700K bridge exploit at The Sandbox (SAND, Ethereum/Polygon metaverse project) with 1:1 user repayment pledged. It reached this queue via the systemic_keyword 'bridge exploit', not via any link to PUMP. No shared chain (PUMP is Solana), issuer, bridge, custodian, or venue connects The Sandbox to PUMPUSDT, so there is no transmission channel to the symbol. Contained, small-dollar, already-remediated incident; nothing indicating hack, delisting, depeg, insolvency, chain halt, frozen withdrawals, or legal action touching PUMP. Note the coverage gap: headline-level RSS only, no exchange announcement pages or social feeds, and one scraper feed failed, so a PUMP-specific venue or contract event could be missed.", "symbol": "PUMPUSDT", "decision": "allow", "evidence": [ { "id": "rss-c9a9253dbc95eb4a", "url": "https://cointelegraph.com/news/the-sandbox-compensation-sand-bridge-exploit?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound", "title": "The Sandbox pledges 1:1 repayment after $700K bridge exploit", "source": "cointelegraph", "tokens": [], "age_text": "1d", "age_hours": 24.0, "matched_by": "systemic_keyword", "published_at": "2026-08-28T05:40:48+00:00" } ], "categories": [ "unknown" ], "confidence": 0.82, "risk_score": 5, "observed_at": "2026-08-29T18:40:45.586280+00:00", "unavailable": false, "corpus_count": 80, "evidence_ids": [ "rss-c9a9253dbc95eb4a" ], "evidence_hash": "4d9f8313d7f7bb140e548eb6cea557535b1841b4765265e56c01d69522e0706c", "evidence_count": 1, "freshness_hours": 24.0, "agent_routed_count": 0 }, "carry": { "score": -0.053265733249092805, "skill": "carry", "action": "no_trade", "symbol": "PUMPUSDT", "vetoes": [ "carry_quality_gate" ], "factors": { "funding_mean": 2.2944740740740738e-05, "risk_buffer_bps": 8.595706931207172, "basis_change_vol": 0.0003789561070793255, "funding_edge_bps": 9.63679111111111, "current_basis_pct": -0.04142502071249332, "annual_funding_pct": 2.5124491111111107, "funding_persistence": 0.7666666666666667, "round_trip_cost_bps": 8.0, "basis_convergence_bps": 0.0 }, "reasons": [ "annual funding 2.51%; persistence 76.7%", "carry net EV -7.0 bps over 14d" ], "eligible": false, "metadata": { "perp_price": 0.004826, "spot_price": 0.004828 }, "confidence": 0.895, "data_as_of": "2026-08-29T18:40:38.074508+00:00", "horizon_hours": 336.0, "expected_net_bps": -6.9589158200960615 }, "directional": { "score": 0.5241559379592495, "skill": "directional", "action": "long", "symbol": "PUMPUSDT", "vetoes": [], "factors": { "adx": 18.641814053427037, "rsi": 60.52067171174362, "flow_z": null, "atr_pct": 0.004581617255210027, "flow_term": 0.0, "kyle_lambda": null, "momentum_1h": 0.0029106029106029663, "trend_1h_atr": 0.25937994143425946, "trend_5m_atr": 1.0613384460531026, "volume_ratio": 1.6345992690267614, "vwap_position": 0.029352766057458315, "gross_edge_bps": 30.018523622186173, "taker_imbalance": null, "funding_edge_bps": -0.37500000000000006, "round_trip_cost_bps": 16.0 }, "reasons": [ "long structure score +0.524", "1h trend aligned; BTC trending_down", "directional net EV +13.6 bps" ], "eligible": true, "metadata": { "atr": 2.2101721639133172e-05, "frames": { "1h": { "vwap": null, "close": 0.004777, "ema_mid": 0.004691437194226213, "ema_fast": 0.004726637043295338, "ema_slow": 0.004702110422223375 }, "5m": { "vwap": 0.004686440022380748, "close": 0.004824, "ema_mid": 0.0047987709386204435, "ema_fast": 0.00480039941721536, "ema_slow": 0.004776942010315784 } }, "btc_regime": "trending_down", "mark_price": 0.004826, "ema_periods": { "mid": 21, "fast": 9, "slow": 50 }, "candle_price": 0.004824, "funding_rate": 5e-05, "orderflow_enabled": false }, "confidence": 0.6928530220912954, "data_as_of": "2026-08-29T18:35:00+00:00", "horizon_hours": 6.0, "expected_net_bps": 13.643523622186173 }, "performance_carry": { "score": 0.0, "skill": "performance", "action": "allow", "symbol": "PUMPUSDT", "vetoes": [], "factors": { "wins": 0.0, "losses": 0.0, "samples": 0.0, "expectancy_usd": 0.0, "minimum_samples": 8.0, "sample_maturity": 0.0, "posterior_win_rate": 0.5, "win_rate_lower_bound": 0.3210613300064863 }, "reasons": [ "shrunk win rate 50.0%; lower bound 32.1%; n=0/8 minimum" ], "eligible": true, "metadata": {}, "confidence": 0.15, "data_as_of": "2026-08-29T18:40:38.074508+00:00", "horizon_hours": 24.0, "expected_net_bps": 0.0 }, "performance_directional": { "score": 0.0, "skill": "performance", "action": "allow", "symbol": "PUMPUSDT", "vetoes": [], "factors": { "wins": 1.0, "losses": 1.0, "samples": 2.0, "expectancy_usd": 5.892408094662075, "minimum_samples": 8.0, "sample_maturity": 0.25, "posterior_win_rate": 0.5, "win_rate_lower_bound": 0.3290181804731987 }, "reasons": [ "shrunk win rate 50.0%; lower bound 32.9%; n=2/8 minimum" ], "eligible": true, "metadata": {}, "confidence": 0.22272727272727272, "data_as_of": "2026-08-29T18:40:38.074508+00:00", "horizon_hours": 24.0, "expected_net_bps": 0.0 } }, "captured_at": "2026-08-29T18:40:38.074508+00:00", "chart_setup": { "notes": [], "swing": { "low": { "price": 0.004764, "formed_at": "2026-08-29T18:15:00+00:00", "distance_pct": 1.3318178001679388 }, "high": { "price": 0.004821, "formed_at": "2026-08-29T17:45:00+00:00", "distance_pct": 0.13374403650696626 } }, "atr_pct": 0.004581617255210027, "support": { "kind": "swing_high", "price": 0.00482, "distance_pct": 0.15451867219919038 }, "ema_vwap": { "1h": [ { "name": "EMA9", "value": 0.004726637043295338, "relation": "di_atas", "distance_pct": 2.132822041998354 }, { "name": "EMA21", "value": 0.004691437194226213, "relation": "di_atas", "distance_pct": 2.8991245143636784 }, { "name": "EMA50", "value": 0.004702110422223375, "relation": "di_atas", "distance_pct": 2.6655558147730676 } ], "5m": [ { "name": "EMA9", "value": 0.00480039941721536, "relation": "di_atas", "distance_pct": 0.5634610880011137 }, { "name": "EMA21", "value": 0.0047987709386204435, "relation": "di_atas", "distance_pct": 0.5975876270477123 }, { "name": "EMA50", "value": 0.004776942010315784, "relation": "di_atas", "distance_pct": 1.057282872079033 }, { "name": "VWAP", "value": 0.004686440022380748, "relation": "di_atas", "distance_pct": 3.0088463086233888 } ] }, "narrative": "Entry LONG PUMPUSDT di 0.00482745, di atas EMA9/EMA21/EMA50/VWAP pada frame 5m. Tren 1h naik (+0.26 ATR), searah posisi; rezim BTC trending_down. Level 1h: support terdekat swing_high 0.00482 (+0.15%); resistance terdekat london_high 0.00485 (-0.46%). Volatilitas ATR 0.46% dari harga; pola candle 5m terakhir: three_soldiers.", "resistance": { "kind": "london_high", "price": 0.00485, "distance_pct": -0.4649938144329801 }, "candle_patterns": { "1h": [], "5m": [ "three_soldiers" ] } }, "horizon_hours": 6.0, "roi_scenarios": { "usd_tp": { "roa_pct": 3.990372138616655, "rom_pct": 38.50002499309827, "exit_price": 0.0048957296602530455, "r_multiple": 0.8535624685572815, "net_pnl_usd": 19.2500004686203 }, "tp_hard": { "roa_pct": 12.374426638699308, "rom_pct": 119.39130444869832, "exit_price": 0.005026, "r_multiple": 2.6469576725670554, "net_pnl_usd": 59.695614924889895 }, "fee_note": "net = gross(fill exit ber-slippage per sisi) − fee entry − fee exit taker; funding di luar skenario (belum diketahui saat entry); usd_tp ter-cap di ambang dolar → net = ambang − fee entry; usd_tp_mode=trail: sentuh ambang TIDAK menutup — trailing USD di-arm, lantai awal usd_trail_floor = ambang × (1 − giveback) dan naik mengikuti peak uPnL bersih (exit reason usd_trail_stop)", "stop_loss": { "roa_pct": -4.680679280557817, "rom_pct": -45.16026651805599, "exit_price": 0.004761, "r_multiple": -1.0012229492517677, "net_pnl_usd": -22.58011915034957 }, "trail_floor": { "roa_pct": 1.7340807219042385, "rom_pct": 16.73080825902808, "exit_price": 0.004860671700000001, "r_multiple": 0.3709293695548149, "net_pnl_usd": 8.365398902583118 }, "usd_trail_floor": { "roa_pct": 2.746619814000949, "rom_pct": 26.50001749516879, "exit_price": 0.004876404399678087, "r_multiple": 0.5875170302887415, "net_pnl_usd": 13.2500004686203 } }, "snapshot_kind": "entry_snapshot", "thesis_version": 2, "breakeven_price": 0.0048337277810656856, "expected_net_bps": 13.643523622186173, "funding_projection": { "note": "estimasi = rate saat entry × notional × settlement dalam max_hold; rate berubah tiap interval, interval riil simbol diinferensi dari history (fallback config)", "direction": "bayar", "est_usd_paid": 0.11249992970695502, "horizon_hours": 6.0, "interval_hours": 4.0, "est_settlements": 1.5, "interval_source": "history_inference", "funding_rate_at_entry": 5e-05 }, "utility_bps_per_day": 7.10076557319965 }, "funding_paid": 0.0752260383, "last_mark_at": "2026-08-29T21:22:20.676073+00:00", "notional_usd": 1499.9990627594002, "trail_peak_r": 1.4137744214255143, "working_type": "MARK_PRICE", "ambiguous_bar": false, "current_price": 0.004894, "price_move_pct": 1.348207224529685, "risk_modifiers": [ "risk_gates_bypassed" ], "unrealized_pnl": 20.679299240599786, "equity_at_entry": 482.41115865683923, "exit_mark_price": 0.004894, "last_funding_at": "2026-08-29T20:00:00.002000+00:00", "usd_trail_armed": true, "barrier_evidence": { "series": "mark", "trigger": "usd_trail_stop", "last_low": null, "mark_low": 0.004894, "last_high": null, "mark_high": 0.004894, "fill_price": 0.004894, "bar_open_ms": 1788038520000, "both_touched": false }, "trail_r_distance": 6.6447800000001e-05, "usd_peak_net_usd": 27.96688033698369, "exit_shadow_state": { "ptp": { "at": "2026-08-29T21:01:59.999000+00:00", "open": false, "r_mult": 0.8, "reason": "breakeven_stop", "pnl_usd": 11.178432970824998, "fraction": 0.75, "part_done": true, "realized_usd": 11.478376533412018 }, "tstop": { "at": null, "open": true, "min_r": 0.5, "minutes": 120.0, "pnl_usd": null }, "peak_r": 1.4137744214255143 }, "last_processed_ts": "2026-08-29T21:21:59.999000+00:00", "take_profit_price": 0.005026, "r_multiple_realized": 0.8264151305999953, "utility_bps_per_day": 7.10076557319965, "liquidation_estimate": 0.0033977236165492137, "return_on_margin_pct": 37.275541456915875, "usd_tp_threshold_usd": 20.0, "return_on_account_pct": 3.8634593642001973, "usd_tp_trail_giveback": 0.3, "safe_leverage_suggested": 30 }, { "qty": 111374.0, "side": "long", "event": "meta_close", "shadow": { "bars": 361, "last": { "at": "2026-08-30T04:13:59.999000+00:00", "price": 0.01343655, "net_usd": -2.036433901719228 }, "complete": true, "max_adverse": { "at": "2026-08-30T02:47:00+00:00", "price": 0.013142, "net_usd": -34.81540635314097, "rom_pct": -69.63130486680653 }, "max_favorable": { "at": "2026-08-29T22:14:00+00:00", "price": 0.01373137, "net_usd": 30.77258547742916, "rom_pct": 61.54560596491272 }, "vs_actual_usd": 14.494860505169406, "follow_minutes": 360, "checked_through": "2026-08-30T04:13:59.999000+00:00" }, "source": "live", "symbol": "COTIUSDT", "net_pnl": 16.277724972259755, "exit_fee": 0.757178347769168, "leverage": 30, "risk_usd": 29.999787957216004, "strategy": "directional", "trade_id": "79fb1b05ae3d455e8a5983172eb8aa00", "closed_at": "2026-08-29T22:13:51.466048+00:00", "entry_fee": 0.7499946989303999, "gross_pnl": 14.367297677536058, "llm_judge": { "model": "claude-opus-5", "score": 54.0, "reasons": [ "Entry tidak chasing: harga di VWAP/EMA cepat 5m, RSI 55, trend_1h_atr 1.10 masih jauh dari overextended", "Bahan bakar sebagian ada: volume 2.4x, ADX 30, OI +1.1%, funding -0.236% (p97.5) membayar long ~17.7 bps", "Cacat kunci: taker 4h 0.508 di bawah gate 0.52 — tanpa konfirmasi agresor beli dan tanpa katalis berita segar", "Konteks menahan: BTC choppy, sudah +10.4% 24h, 5% di atas EMA50 1h, likuiditas tipis (rank 35, $50M)" ], "verdict": "approve", "key_risk": "Funding negatif ekstrem bisa mencerminkan jual spot persisten; tanpa taker beli, pullback ini berlanjut jadi breakdown ke EMA 1h alih-alih short squeeze", "better_entry": 0.013429589244909314, "perubahan_material": null, "better_entry_anchor": "ema_mid_5m" }, "opened_at": "2026-08-29T21:07:15.068958+00:00", "risk_tier": "fixed_margin", "tick_size": 1e-06, "confidence": 0.8538292536590951, "exit_price": 0.013597039664, "margin_usd": 49.99964659536, "paper_only": true, "stop_price": 0.013216, "entry_price": 0.0134680392, "exit_policy": "trail", "exit_shadow": { "ptp_mode": "partial_lalu_exit_nyata", "ptp_pnl_usd": 19.436, "real_net_usd": 16.2777, "tstop_pnl_usd": 16.2777, "tstop_triggered": false }, "sizing_mode": "fixed_margin", "trail_armed": false, "usd_tp_mode": "trail", "close_reason": "usd_trail_stop", "entry_thesis": { "setup": { "side": "long", "score": 0.7301342081988027, "strategy": "directional", "btc_regime": "choppy", "confidence": 0.8538292536590951, "score_note": "komponen skor ChartSkill yang sudah dihitung saat entry; mom_z tidak tersedia di jalur meta (null)", "gross_edge_bps": 80.76749954709348, "confidence_tier": "fixed_margin", "score_breakdown": { "adx": 30.56385978743843, "rsi": 55.11081911626162, "mom_z": null, "atr_pct": 0.008849605854939142, "momentum_1h": 0.013381446399037822, "trend_1h_atr": 1.0958030846372373, "trend_5m_atr": 1.2138241379861958, "volume_ratio": 2.3952694233233958, "vwap_position": -0.0004477497654511501 }, "funding_edge_bps": 17.705025, "round_trip_cost_bps": 16.0 }, "action": "long", "levels": { "stop": 0.013216, "entry": 0.0134680392, "take_profit": 0.014224, "mark_at_entry": 0.013464 }, "reason": "selected long utility=51.92 bps/day (news x0.95); funding_favor_long", "symbol": "COTIUSDT", "vetoes": [], "filters": [ { "name": "session_window", "pass": true, "value": { "hour_utc": 21, "window_utc": null } }, { "name": "btc_gate", "pass": true, "value": { "applies": true, "btc_return_7d": 0.009883577329972804 } }, { "name": "funding_extreme", "pass": true, "value": { "notes": [ "funding_favor_long" ], "pctile": 97.5, "pctile_hi": 0.00032663999999999946, "pctile_lo": -0.000218258, "funding_rate": -0.00236067 } }, { "name": "vol_target", "pass": true, "value": { "vol_scale": 1.0, "realized_vol_daily_pct": 1.2684650937856925 } }, { "name": "taker_flow_gate", "pass": true, "value": { "min_ratio": 0.52, "taker_ratio_4h": 0.507770336896542 } }, { "name": "freshness_gate", "pass": true, "value": { "atr_1h": 0.0005567857142857143, "dist_low_atr": -1.866067992302758, "made_new_low": false, "dist_high_atr": -1.8876202694034665, "made_new_high": false, "max_atr_above": 1.0 } }, { "name": "exhaustion", "pass": true, "value": { "notes": null, "enabled": true, "max_pct": 40.0, "move_24h_pct": 10.413451384940275 } }, { "name": "overextended", "pass": true, "value": { "price": 0.01348, "enabled": true, "max_pct": 40.0, "ema50_1h": 0.012831994333723657, "ema_source": "chart_skill_1h", "dist_ema50_pct": 5.049921699024806 } }, { "name": "atr_band", "pass": true, "value": { "enabled": true, "dead_pct": 1.2, "atr_pct_1h": 3.124914995836079, "extreme_pct": 15.0 } }, { "name": "oi_crowd", "pass": true, "value": { "note": null, "enabled": true, "max_pct": 8.0, "oi_change_1h_pct": 1.1205946398401334 } }, { "name": "crowd_positioning", "pass": true, "value": { "note": null, "side": "long", "enabled": false, "ls_ratio": null, "threshold": 0.67, "delta_block": 0.3, "ls_delta_1h": null } }, { "name": "stop_truncated", "pass": true, "value": { "atr_pct": 0.008849605854939142, "cap_pct": 0.02, "enabled": true, "ratio_3atr_vs_cap": 1.327440878240871 } }, { "name": "plateau", "pass": true, "value": { "count": 0, "enabled": false, "conditions": null, "min_conditions": null } }, { "name": "universe", "pass": true, "value": { "rank": 35, "size": 35, "quote_volume_24h": 50122872.8919626 } }, { "name": "regime", "pass": true, "value": { "note": null, "btc_regime": "choppy", "choppy_no_trade": false } }, { "name": "symbol_recent_loss", "pass": true, "value": { "enabled": true, "block_hours": 24.0, "block_until": null, "manual_exempt": null } }, { "name": "news", "pass": true, "value": { "reason": "No transmission channel to COTI. The Cosmos Labs $5.7M six-chain exploit is confined to Cosmos SDK/IBC-connected chains and their bridge contracts; COTI runs its own Trustchain/COTI V2 Ethereum-based stack and is not a Cosmos SDK chain or I", "binding": false, "decision": "allow", "risk_score": 9, "unavailable": false } }, { "name": "portfolio_heat", "pass": true, "value": { "cap_usd": 6.0, "risk_usd": 29.999787957216004, "open_risk_after_usd": 52.55232649743236, "open_risk_before_usd": 22.552538540216354 } }, { "name": "correlated_side", "pass": true, "value": { "cap": 3, "applies": true, "same_side_alt_count": 1 } } ], "expected": { "horizon_hours": 6.0, "expected_net_bps": 82.47252454709349, "utility_bps_per_day": 51.921253505128405 }, "strategy": "directional", "exit_plan": { "tp_hard_r": 3.0, "stop_price": 0.013216, "exit_policy": "trail", "trail_arm_r": 1.0, "usd_tp_mode": "trail", "tp_hard_price": 0.014224, "usd_tp_r_mult": 2.0, "usd_tp_abs_usd": 20.0, "trail_arm_price": 0.0137200784, "daily_guardrails": { "loss_limit_usd": 100.0, "profit_target_usd": 100.0, "profit_floor_fraction": 0.5, "protect_profit_at_usd": 0.0 }, "trail_distance_r": 0.5, "time_stop_minutes": 360.0, "usd_trail_floor_usd": 14.0, "trail_distance_price": 0.0001260196, "usd_tp_threshold_usd": 20.0, "usd_tp_trail_giveback": 0.3 }, "risk_plan": { "qty": 111374.0, "leverage": 30, "risk_usd": 29.999787957216004, "risk_tier": "fixed_margin", "margin_usd": 49.99964659536, "notional_usd": 1499.9893978608, "entry_fee_usd": 0.7499946989303999, "stop_distance": { "pct": 1.871387484527072, "price": 0.0002520392 }, "risk_modifiers": [ "risk_gates_bypassed", "stop_capped_30usd" ], "leverage_reason": "safe_leverage: min(cap config 30x, floor(1/(stop_pct×2+0.005))) — estimasi likuidasi >= 2× jarak stop", "est_exit_fee_usd": 0.7499946989303999, "entry_slippage_usd": 0.4498618608000023, "liquidation_estimate": 0.009319716869242564 }, "confidence": 0.8538292536590951, "data_as_of": "2026-08-29T21:00:00+00:00", "assessments": { "news": { "model": "claude-opus-5", "usage": { "metering": { "unit": "credit", "usage": 0.2964307793698176, "unitPlural": "credits" }, "context_usage_pct": 0.8903999924659729 }, "reason": "No transmission channel to COTI. The Cosmos Labs $5.7M six-chain exploit is confined to Cosmos SDK/IBC-connected chains and their bridge contracts; COTI runs its own Trustchain/COTI V2 Ethereum-based stack and is not a Cosmos SDK chain or IBC zone, so no shared code, validator set, or bridge is implicated. The Sandbox $700K bridge exploit is an app-specific SAND bridge on Ethereum/Polygon with 1:1 repayment pledged and no shared custodian, bridge, or contract dependency with COTI. Both items were routed by the systemic keyword matcher and are irrelevant to this symbol; no COTI-specific hack, delisting, depeg, insolvency, chain halt, or withdrawal freeze evidence is present. Residual score reflects headline-only coverage, one failed feed, and incomplete small-cap token tagging rather than a", "symbol": "COTIUSDT", "decision": "allow", "evidence": [ { "id": "rss-b1b993df2ae0dede", "url": "https://www.theblock.co/news/defi/2026-08-29-cosmos-labs-says-it-wrongly-cleared-the-bug-behind-a-5-7-million-six-chain-hack-413061", "title": "Cosmos Labs says it wrongly cleared the bug behind a $5.7 million six-chain hack", "source": "theblock", "tokens": [ "ATOM" ], "age_text": "51min", "age_hours": 0.85, "matched_by": "systemic_keyword", "published_at": "2026-08-29T20:15:32+00:00" }, { "id": "rss-c9a9253dbc95eb4a", "url": "https://cointelegraph.com/news/the-sandbox-compensation-sand-bridge-exploit?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound", "title": "The Sandbox pledges 1:1 repayment after $700K bridge exploit", "source": "cointelegraph", "tokens": [], "age_text": "1d", "age_hours": 24.0, "matched_by": "systemic_keyword", "published_at": "2026-08-28T05:40:48+00:00" } ], "categories": [ "unknown" ], "confidence": 0.72, "risk_score": 9, "observed_at": "2026-08-29T21:07:22.652299+00:00", "unavailable": false, "corpus_count": 80, "evidence_ids": [ "rss-b1b993df2ae0dede", "rss-c9a9253dbc95eb4a" ], "evidence_hash": "2335d21b55929c9bc01b3bfd3c2f0fa7f2b0e25f8d1319a4bd8e2140f084d02c", "evidence_count": 2, "freshness_hours": 0.85, "agent_routed_count": 0 }, "carry": { "score": -0.037527062787344946, "skill": "carry", "action": "no_trade", "symbol": "COTIUSDT", "vetoes": [ "carry_quality_gate" ], "factors": { "funding_mean": -0.0007834189346246972, "risk_buffer_bps": 166.05134226030557, "basis_change_vol": 0.007320650964704867, "funding_edge_bps": -329.03595254237285, "current_basis_pct": -1.9373634377275906, "annual_funding_pct": -85.78437334140435, "funding_persistence": 0.03753026634382567, "round_trip_cost_bps": 8.0, "basis_convergence_bps": 0.0 }, "reasons": [ "annual funding -85.78%; persistence 3.8%", "carry net EV -503.1 bps over 14d" ], "eligible": false, "metadata": { "perp_price": 0.013464, "spot_price": 0.01373 }, "confidence": 0.5668886198547216, "data_as_of": "2026-08-29T21:07:15.068958+00:00", "horizon_hours": 336.0, "expected_net_bps": -503.08729480267846 }, "directional": { "score": 0.7301342081988027, "skill": "directional", "action": "long", "symbol": "COTIUSDT", "vetoes": [], "factors": { "adx": 30.56385978743843, "rsi": 55.11081911626162, "flow_z": null, "atr_pct": 0.008849605854939142, "flow_term": 0.0, "kyle_lambda": null, "momentum_1h": 0.013381446399037822, "trend_1h_atr": 1.0958030846372373, "trend_5m_atr": 1.2138241379861958, "volume_ratio": 2.3952694233233958, "vwap_position": -0.0004477497654511501, "gross_edge_bps": 80.76749954709348, "taker_imbalance": null, "funding_edge_bps": 17.705025, "round_trip_cost_bps": 16.0 }, "reasons": [ "long structure score +0.730", "1h trend aligned; BTC choppy", "directional net EV +82.5 bps" ], "eligible": true, "metadata": { "atr": 0.00011929268692457963, "frames": { "1h": { "vwap": null, "close": 0.013593, "ema_mid": 0.013112730319410428, "ema_fast": 0.013297458276185862, "ema_slow": 0.012831994333723657 }, "5m": { "vwap": 0.013486038370517265, "close": 0.01348, "ema_mid": 0.013429589244909314, "ema_fast": 0.013493164517252526, "ema_slow": 0.01334836417437824 } }, "btc_regime": "choppy", "mark_price": 0.013464, "ema_periods": { "mid": 21, "fast": 9, "slow": 50 }, "candle_price": 0.01348, "funding_rate": -0.00236067, "orderflow_enabled": false }, "confidence": 0.8538292536590951, "data_as_of": "2026-08-29T21:00:00+00:00", "horizon_hours": 6.0, "expected_net_bps": 82.47252454709349 }, "performance_carry": { "score": 0.0, "skill": "performance", "action": "allow", "symbol": "COTIUSDT", "vetoes": [], "factors": { "wins": 0.0, "losses": 0.0, "samples": 0.0, "expectancy_usd": 0.0, "minimum_samples": 8.0, "sample_maturity": 0.0, "posterior_win_rate": 0.5, "win_rate_lower_bound": 0.3210613300064863 }, "reasons": [ "shrunk win rate 50.0%; lower bound 32.1%; n=0/8 minimum" ], "eligible": true, "metadata": {}, "confidence": 0.15, "data_as_of": "2026-08-29T21:07:15.068958+00:00", "horizon_hours": 24.0, "expected_net_bps": 0.0 }, "performance_directional": { "score": 0.0, "skill": "performance", "action": "allow", "symbol": "COTIUSDT", "vetoes": [], "factors": { "wins": 0.0, "losses": 0.0, "samples": 0.0, "expectancy_usd": 0.0, "minimum_samples": 8.0, "sample_maturity": 0.0, "posterior_win_rate": 0.5, "win_rate_lower_bound": 0.3210613300064863 }, "reasons": [ "shrunk win rate 50.0%; lower bound 32.1%; n=0/8 minimum" ], "eligible": true, "metadata": {}, "confidence": 0.15, "data_as_of": "2026-08-29T21:07:15.068958+00:00", "horizon_hours": 24.0, "expected_net_bps": 0.0 } }, "captured_at": "2026-08-29T21:07:15.068958+00:00", "chart_setup": { "notes": [], "swing": { "low": { "price": 0.013237, "formed_at": "2026-08-29T20:05:00+00:00", "distance_pct": 1.7454045478582745 }, "high": { "price": 0.013698, "formed_at": "2026-08-29T20:45:00+00:00", "distance_pct": -1.6787910643889605 } }, "atr_pct": 0.008849605854939142, "support": { "kind": "london_high", "price": 0.013233, "distance_pct": 1.7761596009975087 }, "ema_vwap": { "1h": [ { "name": "EMA9", "value": 0.013297458276185862, "relation": "di_atas", "distance_pct": 1.2828084906995185 }, { "name": "EMA21", "value": 0.013112730319410428, "relation": "di_atas", "distance_pct": 2.7096483488539205 }, { "name": "EMA50", "value": 0.012831994333723657, "relation": "di_atas", "distance_pct": 4.956710934673332 } ], "5m": [ { "name": "EMA9", "value": 0.013493164517252526, "relation": "di_bawah", "distance_pct": -0.18620774407960342 }, { "name": "EMA21", "value": 0.013429589244909314, "relation": "di_atas", "distance_pct": 0.2863077521545311 }, { "name": "EMA50", "value": 0.01334836417437824, "relation": "di_atas", "distance_pct": 0.8965519973711233 }, { "name": "VWAP", "value": 0.013486038370517265, "relation": "di_bawah", "distance_pct": -0.1334652180481251 } ] }, "narrative": "Entry LONG COTIUSDT di 0.013468, di atas EMA21/EMA50 dan di bawah EMA9/VWAP pada frame 5m. Tren 1h naik (+1.10 ATR), searah posisi; rezim BTC choppy. Level 1h: support terdekat london_high 0.013233 (+1.78%); resistance terdekat newyork_high 0.013698 (-1.68%). Volatilitas ATR 0.88% dari harga; tanpa pola candle menonjol di bar 5m terakhir.", "resistance": { "kind": "newyork_high", "price": 0.013698, "distance_pct": -1.6787910643889605 }, "candle_patterns": { "1h": [], "5m": [] } }, "horizon_hours": 6.0, "roi_scenarios": { "usd_tp": { "roa_pct": 3.9429665024606457, "rom_pct": 38.500282725710335, "exit_price": 0.013658539107758988, "r_multiple": 0.6416713787618388, "net_pnl_usd": 19.2500053010696 }, "tp_hard": { "roa_pct": 16.8323194598283, "rom_pct": 164.35570977548105, "exit_price": 0.014224, "r_multiple": 2.7392618295913502, "net_pnl_usd": 82.17727404703606 }, "fee_note": "net = gross(fill exit ber-slippage per sisi) − fee entry − fee exit taker; funding di luar skenario (belum diketahui saat entry); usd_tp ter-cap di ambang dolar → net = ambang − fee entry; usd_tp_mode=trail: sentuh ambang TIDAK menutup — trailing USD di-arm, lantai awal usd_trail_floor = ambang × (1 − giveback) dan naik mengikuti peak uPnL bersih (exit reason usd_trail_stop)", "stop_loss": { "roa_pct": -6.14445569704491, "rom_pct": -59.99626965742696, "exit_price": 0.013216, "r_multiple": -0.9999378276237825, "net_pnl_usd": -29.997922799112683 }, "trail_floor": { "roa_pct": 2.4731752986666753, "rom_pct": 24.14880982871359, "exit_price": 0.0135940588, "r_multiple": 0.40248016381189305, "net_pnl_usd": 12.074319571342354 }, "usd_trail_floor": { "roa_pct": 2.713990268700889, "rom_pct": 26.50019790799723, "exit_price": 0.01360462344574063, "r_multiple": 0.4416699651332871, "net_pnl_usd": 13.2500053010696 } }, "snapshot_kind": "entry_snapshot", "thesis_version": 2, "breakeven_price": 0.013485559644481638, "expected_net_bps": 82.47252454709349, "funding_projection": { "note": "estimasi = rate saat entry × notional × settlement dalam max_hold; rate berubah tiap interval, interval riil simbol diinferensi dari history (fallback config)", "direction": "terima", "est_usd_paid": -2.655734978886041, "horizon_hours": 6.0, "interval_hours": 8.0, "est_settlements": 0.75, "interval_source": "config_fallback", "funding_rate_at_entry": -0.00236067 }, "utility_bps_per_day": 51.921253505128405 }, "funding_paid": -3.4176003414232685, "last_mark_at": "2026-08-29T22:13:51.466048+00:00", "notional_usd": 1499.9893978608, "trail_peak_r": 0.8645909049068569, "working_type": "MARK_PRICE", "ambiguous_bar": false, "current_price": 0.01360112, "price_move_pct": 0.9578266151764714, "risk_modifiers": [ "risk_gates_bypassed", "stop_capped_30usd" ], "unrealized_pnl": 14.821741019199916, "equity_at_entry": 488.21123103775926, "exit_mark_price": 0.01360112, "last_funding_at": "2026-08-29T22:00:00.002000+00:00", "usd_trail_armed": true, "barrier_evidence": { "series": "mark", "trigger": "usd_trail_stop", "last_low": null, "mark_low": 0.01360112, "last_high": null, "mark_high": 0.01360112, "fill_price": 0.01360112, "bar_open_ms": 1788041580000, "both_touched": false }, "trail_r_distance": 0.0002520392, "usd_peak_net_usd": 23.050418881809346, "exit_shadow_state": { "ptp": { "at": null, "open": true, "r_mult": 0.8, "pnl_usd": null, "fraction": 0.75, "part_done": true, "realized_usd": 15.929072058272821 }, "tstop": { "at": null, "open": true, "min_r": 0.5, "minutes": 120.0, "pnl_usd": null }, "peak_r": 0.8645909049068569 }, "last_processed_ts": "2026-08-29T22:12:59.999000+00:00", "take_profit_price": 0.014224, "r_multiple_realized": 0.5425946675181212, "utility_bps_per_day": 51.921253505128405, "liquidation_estimate": 0.009129408272478575, "return_on_margin_pct": 32.55568005108728, "usd_tp_threshold_usd": 20.0, "return_on_account_pct": 3.334156188430823, "usd_tp_trail_giveback": 0.3, "safe_leverage_suggested": 23 }, { "qty": 12270.0, "side": "long", "event": "meta_close", "shadow": { "bars": 360, "last": { "at": "2026-08-30T04:29:59.999000+00:00", "price": 0.11627455, "net_usd": -73.19913277073559 }, "complete": true, "max_adverse": { "at": "2026-08-30T03:21:00+00:00", "price": 0.11478, "net_usd": -91.52259351865497, "rom_pct": -183.04926842461126 }, "max_favorable": { "at": "2026-08-29T22:40:00+00:00", "price": 0.12457631, "net_usd": 28.581987632493593, "rom_pct": 57.16524985912711 }, "vs_actual_usd": 9.272501153028514, "follow_minutes": 360, "checked_through": "2026-08-30T04:29:59.999000+00:00" }, "source": "live", "symbol": "ONGUSDT", "net_pnl": 19.30948647946508, "exit_fee": 0.75940780929, "leverage": 30, "risk_usd": 29.999331100200003, "strategy": "directional", "trade_id": "0fd18e94f4264730a20f3da81a0efd32", "closed_at": "2026-08-29T22:30:53.050011+00:00", "entry_fee": 0.7499832775049999, "gross_pnl": 18.849063570000077, "llm_judge": { "model": "claude-opus-5", "score": 60.0, "reasons": [ "Bukan chasing: RSI 60, harga 0.89% di bawah VWAP 5m, hanya 2.6% di atas EMA50-1h, move 24h +9.5% moderat", "Bahan bakar ada: OI +3.1%, volume_ratio 1.73, dan funding -0.00097 (pctile 97.5) membayar long — potensi short-squeeze", "Cacat: taker 4h 0.515 di bawah gerbang 0.52, ADX 18 lemah, momentum_1h datar, BTC choppy", "Berita netral tanpa jalur transmisi ke ONG (risk 8, terbaca)" ], "verdict": "approve", "key_risk": "Funding sangat negatif bisa mencerminkan tekanan jual spot berkelanjutan; tanpa konfirmasi agresor beli (taker <0.52) dan dengan BTC choppy, pullback ini bisa berlanjut ke pita EMA 1h alih-alih squeeze", "better_entry": 0.1215723242757931, "perubahan_material": null, "better_entry_anchor": "ema_fast_1h" }, "opened_at": "2026-08-29T21:28:27.085521+00:00", "risk_tier": "fixed_margin", "tick_size": 1e-05, "confidence": 0.7163762473965964, "exit_price": 0.123782854, "margin_usd": 49.998885167, "paper_only": true, "stop_price": 0.12342, "entry_price": 0.12224666299999999, "exit_policy": "trail", "exit_shadow": { "ptp_mode": "partial_lalu_exit_nyata", "ptp_pnl_usd": 20.186, "real_net_usd": 19.3095, "tstop_pnl_usd": 19.3095, "tstop_triggered": false }, "sizing_mode": "fixed_margin", "trail_armed": true, "usd_tp_mode": "trail", "close_reason": "usd_trail_stop", "entry_thesis": { "setup": { "side": "long", "score": 0.5711417861367691, "strategy": "directional", "btc_regime": "choppy", "confidence": 0.7163762473965964, "score_note": "komponen skor ChartSkill yang sudah dihitung saat entry; mom_z tidak tersedia di jalur meta (null)", "gross_edge_bps": 45.287650306443055, "confidence_tier": "fixed_margin", "score_breakdown": { "adx": 18.062066255343378, "rsi": 60.15884099842161, "mom_z": null, "atr_pct": 0.006343454659519267, "momentum_1h": 0.007889546351084853, "trend_1h_atr": 0.4516193289835659, "trend_5m_atr": 1.060416786840862, "volume_ratio": 1.7272114558746257, "vwap_position": -0.008859642231513054 }, "funding_edge_bps": 7.264724999999999, "round_trip_cost_bps": 16.0 }, "action": "long", "levels": { "stop": 0.11996, "entry": 0.12224666299999999, "take_profit": 0.1291, "mark_at_entry": 0.12221 }, "reason": "selected long utility=19.39 bps/day (news x0.96); funding_favor_long", "symbol": "ONGUSDT", "vetoes": [], "filters": [ { "name": "session_window", "pass": true, "value": { "hour_utc": 21, "window_utc": null } }, { "name": "btc_gate", "pass": true, "value": { "applies": true, "btc_return_7d": 0.009883577329972804 } }, { "name": "funding_extreme", "pass": true, "value": { "notes": [ "funding_favor_long" ], "pctile": 97.5, "pctile_hi": 0.0003199949999999998, "pctile_lo": -0.000231604, "funding_rate": -0.00096863 } }, { "name": "vol_target", "pass": true, "value": { "vol_scale": 1.0, "realized_vol_daily_pct": 1.2684650937856925 } }, { "name": "taker_flow_gate", "pass": true, "value": { "min_ratio": 0.52, "taker_ratio_4h": 0.5150724411729881 } }, { "name": "freshness_gate", "pass": true, "value": { "atr_1h": 0.005159285714285711, "dist_low_atr": -1.806451612903226, "made_new_low": false, "dist_high_atr": -2.641838571230793, "made_new_high": false, "max_atr_above": 1.0 } }, { "name": "exhaustion", "pass": true, "value": { "notes": null, "enabled": true, "max_pct": 40.0, "move_24h_pct": 9.528956137980726 } }, { "name": "overextended", "pass": true, "value": { "price": 0.12264, "enabled": true, "max_pct": 40.0, "ema50_1h": 0.1194758923217857, "ema_source": "chart_skill_1h", "dist_ema50_pct": 2.648323119188234 } }, { "name": "atr_band", "pass": true, "value": { "enabled": true, "dead_pct": 1.2, "atr_pct_1h": 3.8171476669098965, "extreme_pct": 15.0 } }, { "name": "oi_crowd", "pass": true, "value": { "note": null, "enabled": true, "max_pct": 8.0, "oi_change_1h_pct": 3.0935802368971865 } }, { "name": "crowd_positioning", "pass": true, "value": { "note": null, "side": "long", "enabled": false, "ls_ratio": null, "threshold": 0.67, "delta_block": 0.3, "ls_delta_1h": null } }, { "name": "stop_truncated", "pass": true, "value": { "atr_pct": 0.006343454659519267, "cap_pct": 0.02, "enabled": true, "ratio_3atr_vs_cap": 0.9515181989278901 } }, { "name": "plateau", "pass": true, "value": { "count": 0, "enabled": false, "conditions": null, "min_conditions": null } }, { "name": "universe", "pass": true, "value": { "rank": 16, "size": 35, "quote_volume_24h": 157793908.12769 } }, { "name": "regime", "pass": true, "value": { "note": null, "btc_regime": "choppy", "choppy_no_trade": false } }, { "name": "symbol_recent_loss", "pass": true, "value": { "enabled": true, "block_hours": 24.0, "block_until": null, "manual_exempt": null } }, { "name": "news", "pass": true, "value": { "reason": "Neither item has a transmission channel to ONG (Ontology Gas). The Cosmos Labs $5.7M six-chain exploit sits in the Cosmos SDK/IBC stack; Ontology runs its own VBFT chain and is not a Cosmos zone, so no shared bridge, validator set, or clien", "binding": false, "decision": "allow", "risk_score": 8, "unavailable": false } }, { "name": "portfolio_heat", "pass": true, "value": { "cap_usd": 6.0, "risk_usd": 29.999331100200003, "open_risk_after_usd": 59.99911905741601, "open_risk_before_usd": 29.999787957216004 } }, { "name": "correlated_side", "pass": true, "value": { "cap": 3, "applies": true, "same_side_alt_count": 1 } } ], "expected": { "horizon_hours": 6.0, "expected_net_bps": 36.552375306443054, "utility_bps_per_day": 19.392536856580374 }, "strategy": "directional", "exit_plan": { "tp_hard_r": 3.0, "stop_price": 0.11996, "exit_policy": "trail", "trail_arm_r": 1.0, "usd_tp_mode": "trail", "tp_hard_price": 0.1291, "usd_tp_r_mult": 2.0, "usd_tp_abs_usd": 20.0, "trail_arm_price": 0.12453332599999999, "daily_guardrails": { "loss_limit_usd": 100.0, "profit_target_usd": 100.0, "profit_floor_fraction": 0.5, "protect_profit_at_usd": 0.0 }, "trail_distance_r": 0.5, "time_stop_minutes": 360.0, "usd_trail_floor_usd": 14.0, "trail_distance_price": 0.0011433314999999972, "usd_tp_threshold_usd": 20.0, "usd_tp_trail_giveback": 0.3 }, "risk_plan": { "qty": 12270.0, "leverage": 30, "risk_usd": 29.999331100200003, "risk_tier": "fixed_margin", "margin_usd": 49.998885167, "notional_usd": 1499.9665550099999, "entry_fee_usd": 0.7499832775049999, "stop_distance": { "pct": 1.8705320406169241, "price": 0.0022866629999999943 }, "risk_modifiers": [ "risk_gates_bypassed", "stop_capped_30usd" ], "leverage_reason": "safe_leverage: min(cap config 30x, floor(1/(stop_pct×2+0.005))) — estimasi likuidasi >= 2× jarak stop", "est_exit_fee_usd": 0.7499832775049999, "entry_slippage_usd": 0.449855009999906, "liquidation_estimate": 0.08366228177696458 }, "confidence": 0.7163762473965964, "data_as_of": "2026-08-29T21:20:00+00:00", "assessments": { "news": { "model": "claude-opus-5", "usage": { "metering": { "unit": "credit", "usage": 0.2563263828524046, "unitPlural": "credits" }, "context_usage_pct": 0.8738999962806702 }, "reason": "Neither item has a transmission channel to ONG (Ontology Gas). The Cosmos Labs $5.7M six-chain exploit sits in the Cosmos SDK/IBC stack; Ontology runs its own VBFT chain and is not a Cosmos zone, so no shared bridge, validator set, or client code links it. The Sandbox $700K bridge exploit is SAND-specific on Ethereum/Polygon rails, unrelated to Ontology's chain, foundation, or custodians. Both were routed by systemic_keyword matching on hack/exploit language and are immaterial here. No fresh evidence of exploit, depeg, delisting, chain halt, frozen withdrawals, or insolvency touching Ontology infrastructure or ONG venues.", "symbol": "ONGUSDT", "decision": "allow", "evidence": [ { "id": "rss-b1b993df2ae0dede", "url": "https://www.theblock.co/news/defi/2026-08-29-cosmos-labs-says-it-wrongly-cleared-the-bug-behind-a-5-7-million-six-chain-hack-413061", "title": "Cosmos Labs says it wrongly cleared the bug behind a $5.7 million six-chain hack", "source": "theblock", "tokens": [ "ATOM" ], "age_text": "1h", "age_hours": 1.0, "matched_by": "systemic_keyword", "published_at": "2026-08-29T20:15:32+00:00" }, { "id": "rss-c9a9253dbc95eb4a", "url": "https://cointelegraph.com/news/the-sandbox-compensation-sand-bridge-exploit?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound", "title": "The Sandbox pledges 1:1 repayment after $700K bridge exploit", "source": "cointelegraph", "tokens": [], "age_text": "1d", "age_hours": 24.0, "matched_by": "systemic_keyword", "published_at": "2026-08-28T05:40:48+00:00" } ], "categories": [ "unknown" ], "confidence": 0.74, "risk_score": 8, "observed_at": "2026-08-29T21:28:34.486491+00:00", "unavailable": false, "corpus_count": 80, "evidence_ids": [ "rss-b1b993df2ae0dede", "rss-c9a9253dbc95eb4a" ], "evidence_hash": "639d4b958e88dbd1b7df5122d6d40c8feb5b839b5ed8370c52698d0ea357827d", "evidence_count": 2, "freshness_hours": 1.0, "agent_routed_count": 0 }, "carry": { "score": -0.46882792988784316, "skill": "carry", "action": "no_trade", "symbol": "ONGUSDT", "vetoes": [ "carry_quality_gate" ], "factors": { "funding_mean": -0.0011768401995012469, "risk_buffer_bps": 593.1341789250134, "basis_change_vol": 0.026149311652898397, "funding_edge_bps": -494.2728837905237, "current_basis_pct": -1.1485885302920051, "annual_funding_pct": -128.86400184538653, "funding_persistence": 0.4688279301745636, "round_trip_cost_bps": 8.0, "basis_convergence_bps": 0.0 }, "reasons": [ "annual funding -128.86%; persistence 46.9%", "carry net EV -1095.4 bps over 14d" ], "eligible": false, "metadata": { "perp_price": 0.12221, "spot_price": 0.12363 }, "confidence": 0.7609725685785536, "data_as_of": "2026-08-29T21:28:27.085521+00:00", "horizon_hours": 336.0, "expected_net_bps": -1095.407062715537 }, "directional": { "score": 0.5711417861367691, "skill": "directional", "action": "long", "symbol": "ONGUSDT", "vetoes": [], "factors": { "adx": 18.062066255343378, "rsi": 60.15884099842161, "flow_z": null, "atr_pct": 0.006343454659519267, "flow_term": 0.0, "kyle_lambda": null, "momentum_1h": 0.007889546351084853, "trend_1h_atr": 0.4516193289835659, "trend_5m_atr": 1.060416786840862, "volume_ratio": 1.7272114558746257, "vwap_position": -0.008859642231513054, "gross_edge_bps": 45.287650306443055, "taker_imbalance": null, "funding_edge_bps": 7.264724999999999, "round_trip_cost_bps": 16.0 }, "reasons": [ "long structure score +0.571", "1h trend aligned; BTC choppy", "directional net EV +36.6 bps" ], "eligible": true, "metadata": { "atr": 0.000777961279443443, "frames": { "1h": { "vwap": null, "close": 0.12161, "ema_mid": 0.12076427616033338, "ema_fast": 0.1215723242757931, "ema_slow": 0.1194758923217857 }, "5m": { "vwap": 0.12373625898567896, "close": 0.12264, "ema_mid": 0.12181783267071249, "ema_fast": 0.12238913836263982, "ema_slow": 0.1215641751624058 } }, "btc_regime": "choppy", "mark_price": 0.12221, "ema_periods": { "mid": 21, "fast": 9, "slow": 50 }, "candle_price": 0.12264, "funding_rate": -0.00096863, "orderflow_enabled": false }, "confidence": 0.7163762473965964, "data_as_of": "2026-08-29T21:20:00+00:00", "horizon_hours": 6.0, "expected_net_bps": 36.552375306443054 }, "performance_carry": { "score": 0.0, "skill": "performance", "action": "allow", "symbol": "ONGUSDT", "vetoes": [], "factors": { "wins": 0.0, "losses": 0.0, "samples": 0.0, "expectancy_usd": 0.0, "minimum_samples": 8.0, "sample_maturity": 0.0, "posterior_win_rate": 0.5, "win_rate_lower_bound": 0.3210613300064863 }, "reasons": [ "shrunk win rate 50.0%; lower bound 32.1%; n=0/8 minimum" ], "eligible": true, "metadata": {}, "confidence": 0.15, "data_as_of": "2026-08-29T21:28:27.085521+00:00", "horizon_hours": 24.0, "expected_net_bps": 0.0 }, "performance_directional": { "score": 0.0, "skill": "performance", "action": "allow", "symbol": "ONGUSDT", "vetoes": [], "factors": { "wins": 0.0, "losses": 0.0, "samples": 0.0, "expectancy_usd": 0.0, "minimum_samples": 8.0, "sample_maturity": 0.0, "posterior_win_rate": 0.5, "win_rate_lower_bound": 0.3210613300064863 }, "reasons": [ "shrunk win rate 50.0%; lower bound 32.1%; n=0/8 minimum" ], "eligible": true, "metadata": {}, "confidence": 0.15, "data_as_of": "2026-08-29T21:28:27.085521+00:00", "horizon_hours": 24.0, "expected_net_bps": 0.0 } }, "captured_at": "2026-08-29T21:28:27.085521+00:00", "chart_setup": { "notes": [], "swing": { "low": { "price": 0.12095, "formed_at": "2026-08-29T20:40:00+00:00", "distance_pct": 1.0720653162463742 }, "high": { "price": 0.12187, "formed_at": "2026-08-29T20:45:00+00:00", "distance_pct": 0.30906950028717933 } }, "atr_pct": 0.006343454659519267, "support": { "kind": "daily_open", "price": 0.12177, "distance_pct": 0.3914453477868016 }, "ema_vwap": { "1h": [ { "name": "EMA9", "value": 0.1215723242757931, "relation": "di_atas", "distance_pct": 0.554681115314628 }, { "name": "EMA21", "value": 0.12076427616033338, "relation": "di_atas", "distance_pct": 1.2275044299512192 }, { "name": "EMA50", "value": 0.1194758923217857, "relation": "di_atas", "distance_pct": 2.319104402042673 } ], "5m": [ { "name": "EMA9", "value": 0.12238913836263982, "relation": "di_bawah", "distance_pct": -0.11641177031385622 }, { "name": "EMA21", "value": 0.12181783267071249, "relation": "di_atas", "distance_pct": 0.35202590613041235 }, { "name": "EMA50", "value": 0.1215641751624058, "relation": "di_atas", "distance_pct": 0.5614218470881049 }, { "name": "VWAP", "value": 0.12373625898567896, "relation": "di_bawah", "distance_pct": -1.2038476012527328 } ] }, "narrative": "Entry LONG ONGUSDT di 0.122247, di atas EMA21/EMA50 dan di bawah EMA9/VWAP pada frame 5m. Tren 1h naik (+0.45 ATR), searah posisi; rezim BTC choppy. Level 1h: support terdekat daily_open 0.12177 (+0.39%); resistance terdekat fvg_bear_bottom 0.12242 (-0.14%). Volatilitas ATR 0.63% dari harga; pola candle 5m terakhir: evening_star, tweezer_top.", "resistance": { "kind": "fvg_bear_bottom", "price": 0.12242, "distance_pct": -0.14159206012090306 }, "candle_patterns": { "1h": [ "morning_star" ], "5m": [ "evening_star", "tweezer_top" ] } }, "horizon_hours": 6.0, "roi_scenarios": { "usd_tp": { "roa_pct": 3.854343509659966, "rom_pct": 38.500891886286084, "exit_price": 0.12397581690719393, "r_multiple": 0.6416815314381014, "net_pnl_usd": 19.250016722495 }, "tp_hard": { "roa_pct": 16.433195265509735, "rom_pct": 164.15056745148163, "exit_price": 0.1291, "r_multiple": 2.7358427908580265, "net_pnl_usd": 82.07345372104517 }, "fee_note": "net = gross(fill exit ber-slippage per sisi) − fee entry − fee exit taker; funding di luar skenario (belum diketahui saat entry); usd_tp ter-cap di ambang dolar → net = ambang − fee entry; usd_tp_mode=trail: sentuh ambang TIDAK menutup — trailing USD di-arm, lantai awal usd_trail_floor = ambang × (1 − giveback) dan naik mengikuti peak uPnL bersih (exit reason usd_trail_stop)", "stop_loss": { "roa_pct": -6.003689398091948, "rom_pct": -59.97062686692711, "exit_price": 0.11996, "r_multiple": -0.9995104477821185, "net_pnl_usd": -29.984644861124938 }, "trail_floor": { "roa_pct": 2.4162658528148184, "rom_pct": 24.135988433463535, "exit_price": 0.12338999449999999, "r_multiple": 0.40226647389105885, "net_pnl_usd": 12.067725140767834 }, "usd_trail_floor": { "roa_pct": 2.652990732083655, "rom_pct": 26.500624320400263, "exit_price": 0.12348642791439583, "r_multiple": 0.44167707200667095, "net_pnl_usd": 13.250016722495 } }, "snapshot_kind": "entry_snapshot", "thesis_version": 2, "breakeven_price": 0.12240569252466582, "expected_net_bps": 36.552375306443054, "funding_projection": { "note": "estimasi = rate saat entry × notional × settlement dalam max_hold; rate berubah tiap interval, interval riil simbol diinferensi dari history (fallback config)", "direction": "terima", "est_usd_paid": -1.089684453134502, "horizon_hours": 6.0, "interval_hours": 8.0, "est_settlements": 0.75, "interval_source": "config_fallback", "funding_rate_at_entry": -0.00096863 }, "utility_bps_per_day": 19.392536856580374 }, "funding_paid": -1.9698139962599999, "last_mark_at": "2026-08-29T22:30:53.050011+00:00", "notional_usd": 1499.9665550099999, "trail_peak_r": 1.014100897246343, "working_type": "MARK_PRICE", "ambiguous_bar": false, "current_price": 0.12382, "price_move_pct": 1.2566322567021837, "risk_modifiers": [ "risk_gates_bypassed", "stop_capped_30usd" ], "unrealized_pnl": 19.3048449900001, "equity_at_entry": 499.4369773801831, "exit_mark_price": 0.12382, "last_funding_at": "2026-08-29T22:00:00.002000+00:00", "usd_trail_armed": true, "barrier_evidence": { "series": "mark", "trigger": "usd_trail_stop", "last_low": null, "mark_low": 0.12382, "last_high": null, "mark_high": 0.12382, "fill_price": 0.12382, "bar_open_ms": 1788042600000, "both_touched": false }, "trail_r_distance": 0.0022866629999999943, "usd_peak_net_usd": 27.230482517811684, "exit_shadow_state": { "ptp": { "at": null, "open": true, "r_mult": 0.8, "pnl_usd": null, "fraction": 0.75, "part_done": true, "realized_usd": 15.92113681398854 }, "tstop": { "at": null, "open": true, "min_r": 0.5, "minutes": 120.0, "pnl_usd": null }, "peak_r": 1.014100897246343 }, "last_processed_ts": "2026-08-29T22:29:59.999000+00:00", "take_profit_price": 0.1291, "r_multiple_realized": 0.6436639008706545, "utility_bps_per_day": 19.392536856580374, "liquidation_estimate": 0.08079326941617244, "return_on_margin_pct": 38.61983405223928, "usd_tp_threshold_usd": 20.0, "return_on_account_pct": 3.866250869279598, "usd_tp_trail_giveback": 0.3, "safe_leverage_suggested": 23 }, { "qty": 301235.0, "side": "long", "event": "meta_close", "shadow": { "bars": 360, "last": { "at": "2026-08-30T05:43:59.999000+00:00", "price": 0.004917, "net_usd": -20.759914016299962 }, "complete": true, "max_adverse": { "at": "2026-08-30T04:18:00+00:00", "price": 0.004899, "net_usd": -26.17780704563463, "rom_pct": -52.35569456724228 }, "max_favorable": { "at": "2026-08-30T00:41:00+00:00", "price": 0.005103, "net_usd": 35.22498062015641, "rom_pct": 70.45006952916167 }, "vs_actual_usd": 20.176886555121122, "follow_minutes": 360, "checked_through": "2026-08-30T05:43:59.999000+00:00" }, "source": "live", "symbol": "PUMPUSDT", "net_pnl": 15.048094065035285, "exit_fee": 0.7582770321466783, "leverage": 30, "risk_usd": 29.999953886980002, "strategy": "directional", "trade_id": "c5cd23d303d24a0fa360a692e86386df", "closed_at": "2026-08-29T23:44:16.406314+00:00", "entry_fee": 0.7499988471744999, "gross_pnl": 16.55636994435646, "llm_judge": { "model": "claude-opus-5", "score": 56.0, "reasons": [ "Pullback sehat: RSI dingin 59,8->51,4 dan harga kembali ke klaster EMA 5m, bukan entry di puncak", "Bahan bakar sebagian terkonfirmasi: volume_ratio 1,31->1,46 dan taker 4h 0,536 tetap searah long", "Cacat: funding persentil 97,5 (long padat) dan delta OI 1h melemah 0,40%->0,27%, jadi paus tidak menambah", "Harga masih 4,0% di atas VWAP 5m dan 4,6% di atas EMA50-1h dengan BTC choppy" ], "verdict": "approve", "key_risk": "Long crowded (funding p97,5) tanpa penambahan OI — pullback di EMA 5m bisa jadi shakeout menuju VWAP/EMA slow bila BTC choppy menekan", "better_entry": 0.004899106565099929, "perubahan_material": { "alasan": [], "memburuk": false, "oi_1h_pct": { "dulu": 0.4, "kini": 0.27 }, "volume_ratio": { "dulu": 1.31, "kini": 1.46, "perubahan_pct": 11.4 }, "taker_ratio_4h": { "dulu": 0.536, "kini": 0.536 }, "harga_berubah_pct": -0.36 }, "better_entry_anchor": "ema_slow_5m" }, "opened_at": "2026-08-29T22:37:23.661213+00:00", "risk_tier": "fixed_margin", "tick_size": 1e-06, "confidence": 0.8709995591997314, "exit_price": 0.005034455041058829, "margin_usd": 49.999923144966665, "paper_only": true, "stop_price": 0.004886, "entry_price": 0.0049794934, "exit_policy": "trail", "exit_shadow": { "ptp_mode": "partial_lalu_exit_nyata", "ptp_pnl_usd": 19.1843, "real_net_usd": 15.0481, "tstop_pnl_usd": 15.0481, "tstop_triggered": false }, "sizing_mode": "fixed_margin", "trail_armed": false, "usd_tp_mode": "trail", "close_reason": "usd_trail_stop", "entry_thesis": { "setup": { "side": "long", "score": 0.6910632018362416, "strategy": "directional", "btc_regime": "choppy", "confidence": 0.8709995591997314, "score_note": "komponen skor ChartSkill yang sudah dihitung saat entry; mom_z tidak tersedia di jalur meta (null)", "gross_edge_bps": 82.18511837114802, "confidence_tier": "fixed_margin", "score_breakdown": { "adx": 40.22869954744961, "rsi": 51.37750688744863, "mom_z": null, "atr_pct": 0.00951404944181914, "momentum_1h": 0.005282405526208844, "trend_1h_atr": 0.9130778171442042, "trend_5m_atr": 1.6109068651258203, "volume_ratio": 1.4589533293624788, "vwap_position": 0.040097750569288125 }, "funding_edge_bps": -0.37500000000000006, "round_trip_cost_bps": 16.0 }, "action": "long", "levels": { "stop": 0.004886, "entry": 0.0049794934, "take_profit": 0.005259, "mark_at_entry": 0.004978 }, "reason": "selected long utility=42.88 bps/day (news x0.95)", "symbol": "PUMPUSDT", "vetoes": [], "filters": [ { "name": "session_window", "pass": true, "value": { "hour_utc": 22, "window_utc": null } }, { "name": "btc_gate", "pass": true, "value": { "applies": true, "btc_return_7d": 0.016508636167300583 } }, { "name": "funding_extreme", "pass": true, "value": { "notes": null, "pctile": 97.5, "pctile_hi": 0.0003005219999999998, "pctile_lo": -0.000158753, "funding_rate": 5e-05 } }, { "name": "vol_target", "pass": true, "value": { "vol_scale": 1.0, "realized_vol_daily_pct": 1.2311430435530881 } }, { "name": "taker_flow_gate", "pass": true, "value": { "min_ratio": 0.52, "taker_ratio_4h": 0.535986647553158 } }, { "name": "freshness_gate", "pass": true, "value": { "atr_1h": 9.871428571428593e-05, "dist_low_atr": -4.4775687409551335, "made_new_low": false, "dist_high_atr": 1.0535455861070882, "made_new_high": true, "max_atr_above": 1.0 } }, { "name": "exhaustion", "pass": true, "value": { "notes": null, "enabled": true, "max_pct": 40.0, "move_24h_pct": 10.827601508764161 } }, { "name": "overextended", "pass": true, "value": { "price": 0.004948, "enabled": true, "max_pct": 40.0, "ema50_1h": 0.004728926207683281, "ema_source": "chart_skill_1h", "dist_ema50_pct": 4.632632921206947 } }, { "name": "atr_band", "pass": true, "value": { "enabled": true, "dead_pct": 1.2, "atr_pct_1h": 2.119308521436581, "extreme_pct": 15.0 } }, { "name": "oi_crowd", "pass": true, "value": { "note": null, "enabled": true, "max_pct": 8.0, "oi_change_1h_pct": 0.2650750674423552 } }, { "name": "crowd_positioning", "pass": true, "value": { "note": null, "side": "long", "enabled": false, "ls_ratio": null, "threshold": 0.67, "delta_block": 0.3, "ls_delta_1h": null } }, { "name": "stop_truncated", "pass": true, "value": { "atr_pct": 0.00951404944181914, "cap_pct": 0.02, "enabled": true, "ratio_3atr_vs_cap": 1.427107416272871 } }, { "name": "plateau", "pass": true, "value": { "count": 0, "enabled": false, "conditions": null, "min_conditions": null } }, { "name": "universe", "pass": true, "value": { "rank": 17, "size": 35, "quote_volume_24h": 152664263.235306 } }, { "name": "regime", "pass": true, "value": { "note": null, "btc_regime": "choppy", "choppy_no_trade": false } }, { "name": "symbol_recent_loss", "pass": true, "value": { "enabled": true, "block_hours": 24.0, "block_until": null, "manual_exempt": null } }, { "name": "news", "pass": true, "value": { "reason": "Neither item touches PUMP. The Cosmos Labs disclosure concerns an ATOM/IBC-ecosystem bug and a $5.7M six-chain exploit; PUMP is a Solana-based asset with no Cosmos chain, bridge, or validator dependency. The Sandbox item is a $700K SAND bri", "binding": false, "decision": "allow", "risk_score": 8, "unavailable": false } }, { "name": "portfolio_heat", "pass": true, "value": { "cap_usd": 6.0, "risk_usd": 29.999953886980002, "open_risk_after_usd": 29.999953886980002, "open_risk_before_usd": 0.0 } }, { "name": "correlated_side", "pass": true, "value": { "cap": 3, "applies": true, "same_side_alt_count": 0 } } ], "expected": { "horizon_hours": 6.0, "expected_net_bps": 65.81011837114802, "utility_bps_per_day": 42.87893707205828 }, "strategy": "directional", "exit_plan": { "tp_hard_r": 3.0, "stop_price": 0.004886, "exit_policy": "trail", "trail_arm_r": 1.0, "usd_tp_mode": "trail", "tp_hard_price": 0.005259, "usd_tp_r_mult": 2.0, "usd_tp_abs_usd": 20.0, "trail_arm_price": 0.0050729868, "daily_guardrails": { "loss_limit_usd": 100.0, "profit_target_usd": 100.0, "profit_floor_fraction": 0.5, "protect_profit_at_usd": 0.0 }, "trail_distance_r": 0.5, "time_stop_minutes": 360.0, "usd_trail_floor_usd": 14.0, "trail_distance_price": 4.674670000000009e-05, "usd_tp_threshold_usd": 20.0, "usd_tp_trail_giveback": 0.3 }, "risk_plan": { "qty": 301235.0, "leverage": 30, "risk_usd": 29.999953886980002, "risk_tier": "fixed_margin", "margin_usd": 49.999923144966665, "notional_usd": 1499.9976943489999, "entry_fee_usd": 0.7499988471744999, "stop_distance": { "pct": 1.8775685092784777, "price": 9.349340000000018e-05 }, "risk_modifiers": [ "risk_gates_bypassed", "stop_capped_30usd" ], "leverage_reason": "safe_leverage: min(cap config 30x, floor(1/(stop_pct×2+0.005))) — estimasi likuidasi >= 2× jarak stop", "est_exit_fee_usd": 0.7499988471744999, "entry_slippage_usd": 0.4498643490000352, "liquidation_estimate": 0.0032328582822415933 }, "confidence": 0.8709995591997314, "data_as_of": "2026-08-29T22:30:00+00:00", "assessments": { "news": { "model": "claude-opus-5", "usage": { "metering": { "unit": "credit", "usage": 0.2385901576119403, "unitPlural": "credits" }, "context_usage_pct": 0.8666999340057373 }, "reason": "Neither item touches PUMP. The Cosmos Labs disclosure concerns an ATOM/IBC-ecosystem bug and a $5.7M six-chain exploit; PUMP is a Solana-based asset with no Cosmos chain, bridge, or validator dependency. The Sandbox item is a $700K SAND bridge exploit with 1:1 repayment pledged, an unrelated issuer on a different stack. No transmission channel to PUMP via its chain (Solana), its issuer (Pump.fun), its custodians, bridges, or listing venues appears in this evidence, so it was likely routed here in error. No hack, delisting, depeg, insolvency, chain halt, or withdrawal freeze affecting PUMP is present. Residual score reflects only mild market-wide exploit sentiment, not a symbol-specific risk. Caveat: coverage is headline-level RSS with one failed feed, so exchange announcements or Solana-sp", "symbol": "PUMPUSDT", "decision": "allow", "evidence": [ { "id": "rss-b1b993df2ae0dede", "url": "https://www.theblock.co/news/defi/2026-08-29-cosmos-labs-says-it-wrongly-cleared-the-bug-behind-a-5-7-million-six-chain-hack-413061", "title": "Cosmos Labs says it wrongly cleared the bug behind a $5.7 million six-chain hack", "source": "theblock", "tokens": [ "ATOM" ], "age_text": "2h", "age_hours": 2.0, "matched_by": "systemic_keyword", "published_at": "2026-08-29T20:15:32+00:00" }, { "id": "rss-c9a9253dbc95eb4a", "url": "https://cointelegraph.com/news/the-sandbox-compensation-sand-bridge-exploit?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound", "title": "The Sandbox pledges 1:1 repayment after $700K bridge exploit", "source": "cointelegraph", "tokens": [], "age_text": "1d", "age_hours": 24.0, "matched_by": "systemic_keyword", "published_at": "2026-08-28T05:40:48+00:00" } ], "categories": [ "unknown" ], "confidence": 0.78, "risk_score": 8, "observed_at": "2026-08-29T22:37:30.418533+00:00", "unavailable": false, "corpus_count": 80, "evidence_ids": [ "rss-b1b993df2ae0dede", "rss-c9a9253dbc95eb4a" ], "evidence_hash": "81b5886b420e0675669aef889b9e58cfc3e5f0d7ddfbe0c02929ec539e41bed5", "evidence_count": 2, "freshness_hours": 2.0, "agent_routed_count": 0 }, "carry": { "score": -0.05173042441290345, "skill": "carry", "action": "no_trade", "symbol": "PUMPUSDT", "vetoes": [ "carry_quality_gate" ], "factors": { "funding_mean": 2.294474074074074e-05, "risk_buffer_bps": 8.394505770452529, "basis_change_vol": 0.0003700858176162676, "funding_edge_bps": 9.63679111111111, "current_basis_pct": -0.060228869704881394, "annual_funding_pct": 2.5124491111111107, "funding_persistence": 0.7666666666666667, "round_trip_cost_bps": 8.0, "basis_convergence_bps": 0.0 }, "reasons": [ "annual funding 2.51%; persistence 76.7%", "carry net EV -6.8 bps over 14d" ], "eligible": false, "metadata": { "perp_price": 0.004978, "spot_price": 0.004981 }, "confidence": 0.895, "data_as_of": "2026-08-29T22:37:23.661213+00:00", "horizon_hours": 336.0, "expected_net_bps": -6.757714659341419 }, "directional": { "score": 0.6910632018362416, "skill": "directional", "action": "long", "symbol": "PUMPUSDT", "vetoes": [], "factors": { "adx": 40.22869954744961, "rsi": 51.37750688744863, "flow_z": null, "atr_pct": 0.00951404944181914, "flow_term": 0.0, "kyle_lambda": null, "momentum_1h": 0.005282405526208844, "trend_1h_atr": 0.9130778171442042, "trend_5m_atr": 1.6109068651258203, "volume_ratio": 1.4589533293624788, "vwap_position": 0.040097750569288125, "gross_edge_bps": 82.18511837114802, "taker_imbalance": null, "funding_edge_bps": -0.37500000000000006, "round_trip_cost_bps": 16.0 }, "reasons": [ "long structure score +0.691", "1h trend aligned; BTC choppy", "directional net EV +65.8 bps" ], "eligible": true, "metadata": { "atr": 4.7075516638121104e-05, "frames": { "1h": { "vwap": null, "close": 0.004995, "ema_mid": 0.00475330284422245, "ema_fast": 0.004825584132933772, "ema_slow": 0.004728926207683281 }, "5m": { "vwap": 0.00475724516978501, "close": 0.004948, "ema_mid": 0.004951191577023969, "ema_fast": 0.004974940838031623, "ema_slow": 0.004899106565099929 } }, "btc_regime": "choppy", "mark_price": 0.004978, "ema_periods": { "mid": 21, "fast": 9, "slow": 50 }, "candle_price": 0.004948, "funding_rate": 5e-05, "orderflow_enabled": false }, "confidence": 0.8709995591997314, "data_as_of": "2026-08-29T22:30:00+00:00", "horizon_hours": 6.0, "expected_net_bps": 65.81011837114802 }, "performance_carry": { "score": 0.0, "skill": "performance", "action": "allow", "symbol": "PUMPUSDT", "vetoes": [], "factors": { "wins": 0.0, "losses": 0.0, "samples": 0.0, "expectancy_usd": 0.0, "minimum_samples": 8.0, "sample_maturity": 0.0, "posterior_win_rate": 0.5, "win_rate_lower_bound": 0.3210613300064863 }, "reasons": [ "shrunk win rate 50.0%; lower bound 32.1%; n=0/8 minimum" ], "eligible": true, "metadata": {}, "confidence": 0.15, "data_as_of": "2026-08-29T22:37:23.661213+00:00", "horizon_hours": 24.0, "expected_net_bps": 0.0 }, "performance_directional": { "score": 0.04347826086956519, "skill": "performance", "action": "allow", "symbol": "PUMPUSDT", "vetoes": [], "factors": { "wins": 2.0, "losses": 1.0, "samples": 3.0, "expectancy_usd": 10.140858424132825, "minimum_samples": 8.0, "sample_maturity": 0.375, "posterior_win_rate": 0.5217391304347826, "win_rate_lower_bound": 0.35451561204107773 }, "reasons": [ "shrunk win rate 52.2%; lower bound 35.5%; n=3/8 minimum" ], "eligible": true, "metadata": {}, "confidence": 0.25434782608695655, "data_as_of": "2026-08-29T22:37:23.661213+00:00", "horizon_hours": 24.0, "expected_net_bps": 0.0 } }, "captured_at": "2026-08-29T22:37:23.661213+00:00", "chart_setup": { "notes": [], "swing": { "low": { "price": 0.004974, "formed_at": "2026-08-29T22:00:00+00:00", "distance_pct": 0.11044229995978648 }, "high": { "price": 0.005069, "formed_at": "2026-08-29T22:10:00+00:00", "distance_pct": -1.7657644505819654 } }, "atr_pct": 0.00951404944181914, "support": { "kind": "london_high", "price": 0.004942, "distance_pct": 0.7586685552407869 }, "ema_vwap": { "1h": [ { "name": "EMA9", "value": 0.004825584132933772, "relation": "di_atas", "distance_pct": 3.1894432430640753 }, { "name": "EMA21", "value": 0.00475330284422245, "relation": "di_atas", "distance_pct": 4.758597614971671 }, { "name": "EMA50", "value": 0.004728926207683281, "relation": "di_atas", "distance_pct": 5.298606518951645 } ], "5m": [ { "name": "EMA9", "value": 0.004974940838031623, "relation": "di_atas", "distance_pct": 0.09150987150589222 }, { "name": "EMA21", "value": 0.004951191577023969, "relation": "di_atas", "distance_pct": 0.5716163985123401 }, { "name": "EMA50", "value": 0.004899106565099929, "relation": "di_atas", "distance_pct": 1.6408468326189851 }, { "name": "VWAP", "value": 0.00475724516978501, "relation": "di_atas", "distance_pct": 4.671784242413424 } ] }, "narrative": "Entry LONG PUMPUSDT di 0.00497949, di atas EMA9/EMA21/EMA50/VWAP pada frame 5m. Tren 1h naik (+0.91 ATR), searah posisi; rezim BTC choppy. Level 1h: support terdekat london_high 0.004942 (+0.76%); resistance terdekat prev_day_high 0.004986 (-0.13%). Volatilitas ATR 0.95% dari harga; tanpa pola candle menonjol di bar 5m terakhir.", "resistance": { "kind": "prev_day_high", "price": 0.004986, "distance_pct": -0.13049739269956032 }, "candle_patterns": { "1h": [ "morning_star", "outside_bar" ], "5m": [] } }, "horizon_hours": 6.0, "roi_scenarios": { "usd_tp": { "roa_pct": 3.587160853635168, "rom_pct": 38.500061484121176, "exit_price": 0.005049925930642216, "r_multiple": 0.6416676914020195, "net_pnl_usd": 19.2500011528255 }, "tp_hard": { "roa_pct": 15.313924849757536, "rom_pct": 164.36035972052906, "exit_price": 0.005259, "r_multiple": 2.739339328675484, "net_pnl_usd": 82.18005354105527 }, "fee_note": "net = gross(fill exit ber-slippage per sisi) − fee entry − fee exit taker; funding di luar skenario (belum diketahui saat entry); usd_tp ter-cap di ambang dolar → net = ambang − fee entry; usd_tp_mode=trail: sentuh ambang TIDAK menutup — trailing USD di-arm, lantai awal usd_trail_floor = ambang × (1 − giveback) dan naik mengikuti peak uPnL bersih (exit reason usd_trail_stop)", "stop_loss": { "roa_pct": -5.607287350251703, "rom_pct": -60.181552083190084, "exit_price": 0.004886, "r_multiple": -1.003025868053168, "net_pnl_usd": -30.090729789043127 }, "trail_floor": { "roa_pct": 2.2586453335298677, "rom_pct": 24.24145104159507, "exit_price": 0.0050262401, "r_multiple": 0.4040241840265844, "net_pnl_usd": 12.120706890022255 }, "usd_trail_floor": { "roa_pct": 2.469084810369483, "rom_pct": 26.500043038884826, "exit_price": 0.005029991982257622, "r_multiple": 0.4416673839814137, "net_pnl_usd": 13.2500011528255 } }, "snapshot_kind": "entry_snapshot", "thesis_version": 2, "breakeven_price": 0.004985971175744919, "expected_net_bps": 65.81011837114802, "funding_projection": { "note": "estimasi = rate saat entry × notional × settlement dalam max_hold; rate berubah tiap interval, interval riil simbol diinferensi dari history (fallback config)", "direction": "bayar", "est_usd_paid": 0.11249982707617498, "horizon_hours": 6.0, "interval_hours": 4.0, "est_settlements": 1.5, "interval_source": "history_inference", "funding_rate_at_entry": 5e-05 }, "utility_bps_per_day": 42.87893707205828 }, "funding_paid": 0.0, "last_mark_at": "2026-08-29T23:44:16.406314+00:00", "notional_usd": 1499.9976943489999, "trail_peak_r": 0.8446221872346049, "working_type": "MARK_PRICE", "ambiguous_bar": false, "current_price": 0.005037, "price_move_pct": 1.1037596928801907, "risk_modifiers": [ "risk_gates_bypassed", "stop_capped_30usd" ], "unrealized_pnl": 17.323000650999973, "equity_at_entry": 536.6361291916385, "exit_mark_price": 0.0050359658308080715, "usd_trail_armed": true, "barrier_evidence": { "series": "mark", "trigger": "usd_trail_stop", "last_low": 0.005032, "mark_low": 0.00503455, "last_high": 0.00505, "mark_high": 0.00505053, "fill_price": 0.0050359658308080715, "bar_open_ms": 1788046980000, "both_touched": false }, "trail_r_distance": 9.349340000000018e-05, "usd_peak_net_usd": 22.56870416029972, "exit_shadow_state": { "ptp": { "at": null, "open": true, "r_mult": 0.8, "pnl_usd": null, "fraction": 0.75, "part_done": true, "realized_usd": 15.984744804757334 }, "tstop": { "at": null, "open": true, "min_r": 0.5, "minutes": 120.0, "pnl_usd": null }, "peak_r": 0.8446221872346049 }, "last_processed_ts": "2026-08-29T23:43:59.999000+00:00", "take_profit_price": 0.005259, "r_multiple_realized": 0.5016039065168753, "utility_bps_per_day": 42.87893707205828, "liquidation_estimate": 0.0033519583269332656, "return_on_margin_pct": 30.096234391012516, "usd_tp_threshold_usd": 20.0, "return_on_account_pct": 2.8041522451540812, "usd_tp_trail_giveback": 0.3, "safe_leverage_suggested": 23 }, { "qty": 12153.0, "side": "long", "event": "meta_close", "shadow": { "bars": 360, "last": { "at": "2026-08-30T06:14:59.999000+00:00", "price": 0.11588, "net_usd": -90.79670613554264 }, "complete": true, "max_adverse": { "at": "2026-08-30T03:21:00+00:00", "price": 0.11478, "net_usd": -104.15431350078778, "rom_pct": -208.32309219414796 }, "max_favorable": { "at": "2026-08-30T00:26:00+00:00", "price": 0.12435441, "net_usd": 12.110422439098972, "rom_pct": 24.22252680174798 }, "vs_actual_usd": 39.397777192613205, "follow_minutes": 360, "checked_through": "2026-08-30T06:14:59.999000+00:00" }, "source": "live", "symbol": "ONGUSDT", "net_pnl": -27.287354753514233, "exit_fee": 0.7357041375255, "leverage": 30, "risk_usd": 29.997916909870142, "strategy": "directional", "trade_id": "b27edc97abd94ab3acae9ed9aad8c344", "closed_at": "2026-08-30T00:15:47.248273+00:00", "entry_fee": 0.7499479227467535, "gross_pnl": -28.487570442506982, "llm_judge": { "model": "claude-opus-5", "score": 65.0, "reasons": [ "Bukan chasing: RSI 61.7, harga hampir tepat di VWAP 5m (+0.12%), hanya +3.4% dari EMA50-1h, trend_1h_atr 0.56", "Struktur 1h tersusun bullish dengan volume_ratio 1.51 dan OI 1h masih +1.91%", "Funding -0.00156 (p97.5) membayar long: short padat, ada bahan bakar squeeze", "Sejak penilaian lalu tidak memburuk (volume -12.6%, taker 0.515->0.520), tapi laju OI melandai dan taker cuma pas di gerbang 0.52" ], "verdict": "approve", "key_risk": "Konfirmasi agresor sangat tipis (taker 0.520 di ambang) plus BTC choppy dan ADX 24.6 — rawan whipsaw/false break tanpa follow-through", "better_entry": 0.12315072824257677, "perubahan_material": { "alasan": [], "memburuk": false, "oi_1h_pct": { "dulu": 3.09, "kini": 1.91 }, "volume_ratio": { "dulu": 1.73, "kini": 1.51, "perubahan_pct": -12.6 }, "taker_ratio_4h": { "dulu": 0.515, "kini": 0.52 }, "harga_berubah_pct": 0.96 }, "better_entry_anchor": "ema_mid_5m" }, "opened_at": "2026-08-29T23:04:03.547217+00:00", "risk_tier": "fixed_margin", "tick_size": 1e-05, "confidence": 0.8096341095379053, "exit_price": 0.121073667, "margin_usd": 49.996528183116894, "paper_only": true, "stop_price": 0.12111, "entry_price": 0.123417744219, "exit_policy": "trail", "exit_shadow": { "ptp_mode": "tanpa_partial", "ptp_pnl_usd": -27.2874, "real_net_usd": -27.2874, "tstop_pnl_usd": -27.2874, "tstop_triggered": false }, "sizing_mode": "fixed_margin", "trail_armed": false, "usd_tp_mode": "trail", "close_reason": "stop_loss", "entry_thesis": { "setup": { "side": "long", "score": 0.6931191179144526, "strategy": "directional", "btc_regime": "choppy", "confidence": 0.8096341095379053, "score_note": "komponen skor ChartSkill yang sudah dihitung saat entry; mom_z tidak tersedia di jalur meta (null)", "gross_edge_bps": 56.852804184554586, "confidence_tier": "fixed_margin", "score_breakdown": { "adx": 24.604648671239065, "rsi": 61.718285070918455, "mom_z": null, "atr_pct": 0.006561966359331797, "momentum_1h": 0.009782342871117677, "trend_1h_atr": 0.5554539803072489, "trend_5m_atr": 1.452766035239492, "volume_ratio": 1.5096205306647401, "vwap_position": 0.0011905642969861038 }, "funding_edge_bps": 11.675025000000002, "round_trip_cost_bps": 16.0 }, "action": "long", "levels": { "stop": 0.12111, "entry": 0.123417744219, "take_profit": 0.13034, "mark_at_entry": 0.12338073 }, "reason": "selected long utility=31.61 bps/day (news x0.95); funding_favor_long", "symbol": "ONGUSDT", "vetoes": [], "filters": [ { "name": "session_window", "pass": true, "value": { "hour_utc": 23, "window_utc": null } }, { "name": "btc_gate", "pass": true, "value": { "applies": true, "btc_return_7d": 0.015495942899294457 } }, { "name": "funding_extreme", "pass": true, "value": { "notes": [ "funding_favor_long" ], "pctile": 97.5, "pctile_hi": 0.0003144869999999999, "pctile_lo": -0.000142323, "funding_rate": -0.00155667 } }, { "name": "vol_target", "pass": true, "value": { "vol_scale": 1.0, "realized_vol_daily_pct": 1.1974657246312028 } }, { "name": "taker_flow_gate", "pass": true, "value": { "min_ratio": 0.52, "taker_ratio_4h": 0.5200967630822846 } }, { "name": "freshness_gate", "pass": true, "value": { "atr_1h": 0.00442071428571428, "dist_low_atr": -2.6194861851672337, "made_new_low": false, "dist_high_atr": -2.571982549684929, "made_new_high": false, "max_atr_above": 1.0 } }, { "name": "exhaustion", "pass": true, "value": { "notes": null, "enabled": true, "max_pct": 40.0, "move_24h_pct": 10.885328081639955 } }, { "name": "overextended", "pass": true, "value": { "price": 0.12387, "enabled": true, "max_pct": 40.0, "ema50_1h": 0.11976855252130025, "ema_source": "chart_skill_1h", "dist_ema50_pct": 3.42447778849988 } }, { "name": "atr_band", "pass": true, "value": { "enabled": true, "dead_pct": 1.2, "atr_pct_1h": 3.5447532388372873, "extreme_pct": 15.0 } }, { "name": "oi_crowd", "pass": true, "value": { "note": null, "enabled": true, "max_pct": 8.0, "oi_change_1h_pct": 1.910650238202627 } }, { "name": "crowd_positioning", "pass": true, "value": { "note": null, "side": "long", "enabled": false, "ls_ratio": null, "threshold": 0.67, "delta_block": 0.3, "ls_delta_1h": null } }, { "name": "stop_truncated", "pass": true, "value": { "atr_pct": 0.006561966359331797, "cap_pct": 0.02, "enabled": true, "ratio_3atr_vs_cap": 0.9842949538997695 } }, { "name": "plateau", "pass": true, "value": { "count": 0, "enabled": false, "conditions": null, "min_conditions": null } }, { "name": "universe", "pass": true, "value": { "rank": 16, "size": 35, "quote_volume_24h": 160041337.4419 } }, { "name": "regime", "pass": true, "value": { "note": null, "btc_regime": "choppy", "choppy_no_trade": false } }, { "name": "symbol_recent_loss", "pass": true, "value": { "enabled": true, "block_hours": 24.0, "block_until": null, "manual_exempt": null } }, { "name": "news", "pass": true, "value": { "reason": "Neither item has a transmission channel to ONG (Ontology Gas). The Cosmos Labs disclosure concerns a Cosmos SDK/IBC-family bug and a $5.7M six-chain exploit; Ontology runs its own VBFT chain and is not a Cosmos SDK/IBC chain, so no shared c", "binding": false, "decision": "allow", "risk_score": 10, "unavailable": false } }, { "name": "portfolio_heat", "pass": true, "value": { "cap_usd": 6.0, "risk_usd": 29.997916909870142, "open_risk_after_usd": 59.997870796850144, "open_risk_before_usd": 29.999953886980002 } }, { "name": "correlated_side", "pass": true, "value": { "cap": 3, "applies": true, "same_side_alt_count": 1 } } ], "expected": { "horizon_hours": 6.0, "expected_net_bps": 52.52782918455459, "utility_bps_per_day": 31.61069434959469 }, "strategy": "directional", "exit_plan": { "tp_hard_r": 3.0, "stop_price": 0.12111, "exit_policy": "trail", "trail_arm_r": 1.0, "usd_tp_mode": "trail", "tp_hard_price": 0.13034, "usd_tp_r_mult": 2.0, "usd_tp_abs_usd": 20.0, "trail_arm_price": 0.125725488438, "daily_guardrails": { "loss_limit_usd": 100.0, "profit_target_usd": 100.0, "profit_floor_fraction": 0.5, "protect_profit_at_usd": 0.0 }, "trail_distance_r": 0.5, "time_stop_minutes": 360.0, "usd_trail_floor_usd": 14.0, "trail_distance_price": 0.0011538721094999996, "usd_tp_threshold_usd": 20.0, "usd_tp_trail_giveback": 0.3 }, "risk_plan": { "qty": 12153.0, "leverage": 30, "risk_usd": 29.997916909870142, "risk_tier": "fixed_margin", "margin_usd": 49.996528183116894, "notional_usd": 1499.8958454935068, "entry_fee_usd": 0.7499479227467535, "stop_distance": { "pct": 1.869864202755964, "price": 0.002307744218999999 }, "risk_modifiers": [ "risk_gates_bypassed", "stop_capped_30usd" ], "leverage_reason": "safe_leverage: min(cap config 30x, floor(1/(stop_pct×2+0.005))) — estimasi likuidasi >= 2× jarak stop", "est_exit_fee_usd": 0.7499479227467535, "entry_slippage_usd": 0.4498338035070069, "liquidation_estimate": 0.08043425127414104 }, "confidence": 0.8096341095379053, "data_as_of": "2026-08-29T22:55:00+00:00", "assessments": { "news": { "model": "claude-opus-5", "usage": { "metering": { "unit": "credit", "usage": 0.2816043055058043, "unitPlural": "credits" }, "context_usage_pct": 0.8842999935150146 }, "reason": "Neither item has a transmission channel to ONG (Ontology Gas). The Cosmos Labs disclosure concerns a Cosmos SDK/IBC-family bug and a $5.7M six-chain exploit; Ontology runs its own VBFT chain and is not a Cosmos SDK/IBC chain, so no shared codebase, validator set, or bridge is implicated. The Sandbox item is a SAND-specific bridge exploit on its own contracts with 1:1 repayment pledged, unrelated to Ontology's chain, foundation, custodians, or listings. Both were routed by systemic_keyword matching on hack/exploit phrasing and are immaterial to ONG. Residual uncertainty only because the 'six-chain' scope is not enumerated at headline level; no evidence of Ontology involvement. No fresh hack, delist, depeg, insolvency, chain halt, or withdrawal-freeze signal for ONG, so no veto basis.", "symbol": "ONGUSDT", "decision": "allow", "evidence": [ { "id": "rss-b1b993df2ae0dede", "url": "https://www.theblock.co/news/defi/2026-08-29-cosmos-labs-says-it-wrongly-cleared-the-bug-behind-a-5-7-million-six-chain-hack-413061", "title": "Cosmos Labs says it wrongly cleared the bug behind a $5.7 million six-chain hack", "source": "theblock", "tokens": [ "ATOM" ], "age_text": "2h", "age_hours": 2.0, "matched_by": "systemic_keyword", "published_at": "2026-08-29T20:15:32+00:00" }, { "id": "rss-c9a9253dbc95eb4a", "url": "https://cointelegraph.com/news/the-sandbox-compensation-sand-bridge-exploit?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound", "title": "The Sandbox pledges 1:1 repayment after $700K bridge exploit", "source": "cointelegraph", "tokens": [], "age_text": "1d", "age_hours": 24.0, "matched_by": "systemic_keyword", "published_at": "2026-08-28T05:40:48+00:00" } ], "categories": [ "unknown" ], "confidence": 0.72, "risk_score": 10, "observed_at": "2026-08-29T23:04:10.706182+00:00", "unavailable": false, "corpus_count": 80, "evidence_ids": [ "rss-b1b993df2ae0dede", "rss-c9a9253dbc95eb4a" ], "evidence_hash": "81b5886b420e0675669aef889b9e58cfc3e5f0d7ddfbe0c02929ec539e41bed5", "evidence_count": 2, "freshness_hours": 2.0, "agent_routed_count": 0 }, "carry": { "score": -0.46650124041262253, "skill": "carry", "action": "no_trade", "symbol": "ONGUSDT", "vetoes": [ "carry_quality_gate" ], "factors": { "funding_mean": -0.0011780683622828784, "risk_buffer_bps": 593.1700961974024, "basis_change_vol": 0.026150895125884432, "funding_edge_bps": -494.78871215880895, "current_basis_pct": -1.7121564566239256, "annual_funding_pct": -128.9984856699752, "funding_persistence": 0.4665012406947891, "round_trip_cost_bps": 8.0, "basis_convergence_bps": 0.0 }, "reasons": [ "annual funding -129.00%; persistence 46.7%", "carry net EV -1096.0 bps over 14d" ], "eligible": false, "metadata": { "perp_price": 0.12338073, "spot_price": 0.12553 }, "confidence": 0.7599255583126552, "data_as_of": "2026-08-29T23:04:03.547217+00:00", "horizon_hours": 336.0, "expected_net_bps": -1095.9588083562112 }, "directional": { "score": 0.6931191179144526, "skill": "directional", "action": "long", "symbol": "ONGUSDT", "vetoes": [], "factors": { "adx": 24.604648671239065, "rsi": 61.718285070918455, "flow_z": null, "atr_pct": 0.006561966359331797, "flow_term": 0.0, "kyle_lambda": null, "momentum_1h": 0.009782342871117677, "trend_1h_atr": 0.5554539803072489, "trend_5m_atr": 1.452766035239492, "volume_ratio": 1.5096205306647401, "vwap_position": 0.0011905642969861038, "gross_edge_bps": 56.852804184554586, "taker_imbalance": null, "funding_edge_bps": 11.675025000000002, "round_trip_cost_bps": 16.0 }, "reasons": [ "long structure score +0.693", "1h trend aligned; BTC choppy", "directional net EV +52.5 bps" ], "eligible": true, "metadata": { "atr": 0.0008128307729304296, "frames": { "1h": { "vwap": null, "close": 0.12387, "ema_mid": 0.12120411252920055, "ema_fast": 0.1222074875365076, "ema_slow": 0.11976855252130025 }, "5m": { "vwap": 0.12372270017045034, "close": 0.12387, "ema_mid": 0.12315072824257677, "ema_fast": 0.12363982724666346, "ema_slow": 0.12245897430735267 } }, "btc_regime": "choppy", "mark_price": 0.12338073, "ema_periods": { "mid": 21, "fast": 9, "slow": 50 }, "candle_price": 0.12387, "funding_rate": -0.00155667, "orderflow_enabled": false }, "confidence": 0.8096341095379053, "data_as_of": "2026-08-29T22:55:00+00:00", "horizon_hours": 6.0, "expected_net_bps": 52.52782918455459 }, "performance_carry": { "score": 0.0, "skill": "performance", "action": "allow", "symbol": "ONGUSDT", "vetoes": [], "factors": { "wins": 0.0, "losses": 0.0, "samples": 0.0, "expectancy_usd": 0.0, "minimum_samples": 8.0, "sample_maturity": 0.0, "posterior_win_rate": 0.5, "win_rate_lower_bound": 0.3210613300064863 }, "reasons": [ "shrunk win rate 50.0%; lower bound 32.1%; n=0/8 minimum" ], "eligible": true, "metadata": {}, "confidence": 0.15, "data_as_of": "2026-08-29T23:04:03.547217+00:00", "horizon_hours": 24.0, "expected_net_bps": 0.0 }, "performance_directional": { "score": 0.04761904761904767, "skill": "performance", "action": "allow", "symbol": "ONGUSDT", "vetoes": [], "factors": { "wins": 1.0, "losses": 0.0, "samples": 1.0, "expectancy_usd": 19.30948647946508, "minimum_samples": 8.0, "sample_maturity": 0.125, "posterior_win_rate": 0.5238095238095238, "win_rate_lower_bound": 0.34918326270954025 }, "reasons": [ "shrunk win rate 52.4%; lower bound 34.9%; n=1/8 minimum" ], "eligible": true, "metadata": {}, "confidence": 0.1880952380952381, "data_as_of": "2026-08-29T23:04:03.547217+00:00", "horizon_hours": 24.0, "expected_net_bps": 0.0 } }, "captured_at": "2026-08-29T23:04:03.547217+00:00", "chart_setup": { "notes": [], "swing": { "low": { "price": 0.123, "formed_at": "2026-08-29T22:45:00+00:00", "distance_pct": 0.3396294463414605 }, "high": { "price": 0.12462, "formed_at": "2026-08-29T22:25:00+00:00", "distance_pct": -0.9647374265767936 } }, "atr_pct": 0.006561966359331797, "support": { "kind": "swing_high", "price": 0.12294, "distance_pct": 0.38859949487554973 }, "ema_vwap": { "1h": [ { "name": "EMA9", "value": 0.1222074875365076, "relation": "di_atas", "distance_pct": 0.9903294036143598 }, { "name": "EMA21", "value": 0.12120411252920055, "relation": "di_atas", "distance_pct": 1.826366815124477 }, { "name": "EMA50", "value": 0.11976855252130025, "relation": "di_atas", "distance_pct": 3.0468696672699207 } ], "5m": [ { "name": "EMA9", "value": 0.12363982724666346, "relation": "di_bawah", "distance_pct": -0.17962094626710162 }, { "name": "EMA21", "value": 0.12315072824257677, "relation": "di_atas", "distance_pct": 0.21682046077492398 }, { "name": "EMA50", "value": 0.12245897430735267, "relation": "di_atas", "distance_pct": 0.7829315222263452 }, { "name": "VWAP", "value": 0.12372270017045034, "relation": "di_bawah", "distance_pct": -0.24648342707539753 } ] }, "narrative": "Entry LONG ONGUSDT di 0.123418, di atas EMA21/EMA50 dan di bawah EMA9/VWAP pada frame 5m. Tren 1h naik (+0.56 ATR), searah posisi; rezim BTC choppy. Level 1h: support terdekat swing_high 0.12294 (+0.39%); resistance terdekat daily_open 0.12501 (-1.27%). Volatilitas ATR 0.66% dari harga; pola candle 5m terakhir: morning_star.", "resistance": { "kind": "daily_open", "price": 0.12501, "distance_pct": -1.2737027285817257 }, "candle_patterns": { "1h": [ "three_soldiers" ], "5m": [ "morning_star" ] } }, "horizon_hours": 6.0, "roi_scenarios": { "usd_tp": { "roa_pct": 3.51262376903134, "rom_pct": 38.50277764637608, "exit_price": 0.1251635404700483, "r_multiple": 0.6417129607729345, "net_pnl_usd": 19.250052077253248 }, "tp_hard": { "roa_pct": 14.982759007885132, "rom_pct": 164.22989666465827, "exit_price": 0.13034, "r_multiple": 2.7371649444109707, "net_pnl_usd": 82.10924657104962 }, "fee_note": "net = gross(fill exit ber-slippage per sisi) − fee entry − fee exit taker; funding di luar skenario (belum diketahui saat entry); usd_tp ter-cap di ambang dolar → net = ambang − fee entry; usd_tp_mode=trail: sentuh ambang TIDAK menutup — trailing USD di-arm, lantai awal usd_trail_floor = ambang × (1 − giveback) dan naik mengikuti peak uPnL bersih (exit reason usd_trail_stop)", "stop_loss": { "roa_pct": -5.469317868606527, "rom_pct": -59.95060775620168, "exit_price": 0.12111, "r_multiple": -0.9991767959366944, "net_pnl_usd": -29.973222502779233 }, "trail_floor": { "roa_pct": 2.201022680407639, "rom_pct": 24.125978878101108, "exit_price": 0.1245716163285, "r_multiple": 0.4020996479683517, "net_pnl_usd": 12.062151829242648 }, "usd_trail_floor": { "roa_pct": 2.417782958751553, "rom_pct": 26.50194435246325, "exit_price": 0.12466944000583097, "r_multiple": 0.4416990725410541, "net_pnl_usd": 13.250052077253246 } }, "snapshot_kind": "entry_snapshot", "thesis_version": 2, "breakeven_price": 0.12357829719211859, "expected_net_bps": 52.52782918455459, "funding_projection": { "note": "estimasi = rate saat entry × notional × settlement dalam max_hold; rate berubah tiap interval, interval riil simbol diinferensi dari history (fallback config)", "direction": "terima", "est_usd_paid": -14.009057194826262, "horizon_hours": 6.0, "interval_hours": 1.0, "est_settlements": 6.0, "interval_source": "history_inference", "funding_rate_at_entry": -0.00155667 }, "utility_bps_per_day": 31.61069434959469 }, "funding_paid": -2.685867749265, "last_mark_at": "2026-08-30T00:15:47.248273+00:00", "notional_usd": 1499.8958454935068, "trail_peak_r": 0.33463664414882044, "working_type": "MARK_PRICE", "ambiguous_bar": false, "current_price": 0.12111, "price_move_pct": -1.8993032434951318, "risk_modifiers": [ "risk_gates_bypassed", "stop_capped_30usd" ], "unrealized_pnl": -28.04601549350699, "equity_at_entry": 548.0248766454639, "exit_mark_price": 0.12111, "last_funding_at": "2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:00", "usd_trail_armed": false, "barrier_evidence": { "series": "mark", "trigger": "stop_loss", "last_low": null, "mark_low": 0.12111, "last_high": null, "mark_high": 0.12111, "fill_price": 0.12111, "bar_open_ms": 1788048900000, "both_touched": false }, "trail_r_distance": 0.002307744218999999, "usd_peak_net_usd": null, "exit_shadow_state": { "ptp": { "at": null, "open": true, "r_mult": 0.8, "pnl_usd": null, "fraction": 0.75, "part_done": false, "realized_usd": 0.0 }, "tstop": { "at": null, "open": true, "min_r": 0.5, "minutes": 120.0, "pnl_usd": null }, "peak_r": 0.33463664414882044 }, "last_processed_ts": "2026-08-30T00:14:59.999000+00:00", "take_profit_price": 0.13034, "r_multiple_realized": -0.9096416539688441, "utility_bps_per_day": 31.61069434959469, "liquidation_estimate": 0.08296607360258308, "return_on_margin_pct": -54.57849923813066, "usd_tp_threshold_usd": 20.0, "return_on_account_pct": -4.979218264788253, "usd_tp_trail_giveback": 0.3, "safe_leverage_suggested": 23 }, { "qty": 110074.0, "side": "long", "event": "meta_close", "shadow": { "bars": 360, "last": { "at": "2026-08-30T06:19:59.999000+00:00", "price": 0.01317842, "net_usd": -47.38314784599844 }, "complete": true, "max_adverse": { "at": "2026-08-30T02:47:00+00:00", "price": 0.013142, "net_usd": -51.38883641126869, "rom_pct": -102.77849755621648 }, "max_favorable": { "at": "2026-08-30T00:50:00+00:00", "price": 0.01346, "net_usd": -16.413301986338876, "rom_pct": -32.826867387922746 }, "vs_actual_usd": 9.678764243376712, "follow_minutes": 360, "checked_through": "2026-08-30T06:19:59.999000+00:00" }, "source": "live", "symbol": "COTIUSDT", "net_pnl": -26.092066229715588, "exit_fee": 0.7357339775708002, "leverage": 30, "risk_usd": 29.999759268612014, "strategy": "directional", "trade_id": "b3636af3332542018cbd802db5ab1928", "closed_at": "2026-08-30T00:20:23.037405+00:00", "entry_fee": 0.7499939817153001, "gross_pnl": -28.52000828899989, "llm_judge": { "model": "claude-opus-5", "score": 54.0, "reasons": [ "Bahan bakar membaik vs penilaian lalu: volume_ratio 0.40 -> 1.56 dan OI 1h +0.67% -> +1.79%, harga hanya +0.69% (bukan distribusi, trend_1h_atr 1.23)", "Ekstensi masih wajar: RSI 58.8, ADX 27, harga ~1.1% di atas VWAP 5m dan di atas semua EMA, move 24h 9.8%, ATR 1h 2.98%", "Cacat utama: taker_ratio_4h 0.485 gagal gate 0.52 dan turun dari 0.496 - agresor masih sisi jual, kenaikan OI berpotensi build short", "Funding -0.273% membayar long (+20 bps) tapi persentil 97.5 = sisi sangat padat, rawan reversi tajam saat BTC choppy" ], "verdict": "approve", "key_risk": "OI naik bersama taker sell-side dan funding ekstrem negatif bisa berarti short agresif menahan harga; long tanpa konfirmasi agresor beli mudah kena shakeout balik ke VWAP/EMA 5m", "better_entry": 0.013488268129547065, "perubahan_material": { "alasan": [], "memburuk": false, "oi_1h_pct": { "dulu": 0.67, "kini": 1.79 }, "volume_ratio": { "dulu": 0.4, "kini": 1.56, "perubahan_pct": 286.6 }, "taker_ratio_4h": { "dulu": 0.496, "kini": 0.485 }, "harga_berubah_pct": 0.69 }, "better_entry_anchor": "vwap_5m" }, "opened_at": "2026-08-29T23:09:14.799869+00:00", "risk_tier": "fixed_margin", "tick_size": 1e-06, "confidence": 0.8562462693999842, "exit_price": 0.013367988400000001, "margin_usd": 49.999598781020005, "paper_only": true, "stop_price": 0.013372, "entry_price": 0.0136270869, "exit_policy": "trail", "exit_shadow": { "ptp_mode": "tanpa_partial", "ptp_pnl_usd": -26.0921, "real_net_usd": -26.0921, "tstop_pnl_usd": -26.0921, "tstop_triggered": false }, "sizing_mode": "fixed_margin", "trail_armed": false, "usd_tp_mode": "trail", "close_reason": "stop_loss", "entry_thesis": { "setup": { "side": "long", "score": 0.758176985550577, "strategy": "directional", "btc_regime": "choppy", "confidence": 0.8562462693999842, "score_note": "komponen skor ChartSkill yang sudah dihitung saat entry; mom_z tidak tersedia di jalur meta (null)", "gross_edge_bps": 73.17482370187479, "confidence_tier": "fixed_margin", "score_breakdown": { "adx": 27.312231836791685, "rsi": 58.82278215272192, "mom_z": null, "atr_pct": 0.007721133729611833, "momentum_1h": 0.00895367766760402, "trend_1h_atr": 1.2257111450802651, "trend_5m_atr": 1.0265036807065606, "volume_ratio": 1.5596455648469671, "vwap_position": 0.010878481139584343 }, "funding_edge_bps": 20.467575, "round_trip_cost_bps": 16.0 }, "action": "long", "levels": { "stop": 0.013372, "entry": 0.0136270869, "take_profit": 0.014392, "mark_at_entry": 0.013623 }, "reason": "selected long utility=49.98 bps/day (news x0.96); funding_favor_long", "symbol": "COTIUSDT", "vetoes": [], "filters": [ { "name": "session_window", "pass": true, "value": { "hour_utc": 23, "window_utc": null } }, { "name": "btc_gate", "pass": true, "value": { "applies": true, "btc_return_7d": 0.015495942899294457 } }, { "name": "funding_extreme", "pass": true, "value": { "notes": [ "funding_favor_long" ], "pctile": 97.5, "pctile_hi": 0.00031184899999999973, "pctile_lo": -0.00013796299999999998, "funding_rate": -0.00272901 } }, { "name": "vol_target", "pass": true, "value": { "vol_scale": 1.0, "realized_vol_daily_pct": 1.1974657246312028 } }, { "name": "taker_flow_gate", "pass": true, "value": { "min_ratio": 0.52, "taker_ratio_4h": 0.48478274975499835 } }, { "name": "freshness_gate", "pass": true, "value": { "atr_1h": 0.0005372142857142858, "dist_low_atr": -1.6715862252360045, "made_new_low": false, "dist_high_atr": -2.042015689403006, "made_new_high": false, "max_atr_above": 1.0 } }, { "name": "exhaustion", "pass": true, "value": { "notes": null, "enabled": true, "max_pct": 40.0, "move_24h_pct": 9.781199351701787 } }, { "name": "overextended", "pass": true, "value": { "price": 0.013635, "enabled": true, "max_pct": 40.0, "ema50_1h": 0.01288531564824987, "ema_source": "chart_skill_1h", "dist_ema50_pct": 5.818129506605874 } }, { "name": "atr_band", "pass": true, "value": { "enabled": true, "dead_pct": 1.2, "atr_pct_1h": 2.980706569529914, "extreme_pct": 15.0 } }, { "name": "oi_crowd", "pass": true, "value": { "note": null, "enabled": true, "max_pct": 8.0, "oi_change_1h_pct": 1.7887183013526098 } }, { "name": "crowd_positioning", "pass": true, "value": { "note": null, "side": "long", "enabled": false, "ls_ratio": null, "threshold": 0.67, "delta_block": 0.3, "ls_delta_1h": null } }, { "name": "stop_truncated", "pass": true, "value": { "atr_pct": 0.007721133729611833, "cap_pct": 0.02, "enabled": true, "ratio_3atr_vs_cap": 1.1581700594417748 } }, { "name": "plateau", "pass": true, "value": { "count": 0, "enabled": false, "conditions": null, "min_conditions": null } }, { "name": "universe", "pass": true, "value": { "rank": 34, "size": 35, "quote_volume_24h": 53088174.6506276 } }, { "name": "regime", "pass": true, "value": { "note": null, "btc_regime": "choppy", "choppy_no_trade": false } }, { "name": "symbol_recent_loss", "pass": true, "value": { "enabled": true, "block_hours": 24.0, "block_until": null, "manual_exempt": null } }, { "name": "news", "pass": true, "value": { "reason": "Neither item has a transmission channel to COTI. The $5.7M six-chain exploit is a Cosmos Labs/IBC ecosystem bug (ATOM); COTI runs its own DAG mainnet plus an Ethereum-based COTI V2 L2 and is not a Cosmos-SDK chain or IBC-connected asset. Th", "binding": false, "decision": "allow", "risk_score": 8, "unavailable": false } }, { "name": "portfolio_heat", "pass": true, "value": { "cap_usd": 6.0, "risk_usd": 29.999759268612014, "open_risk_after_usd": 89.99763006546216, "open_risk_before_usd": 59.997870796850144 } }, { "name": "correlated_side", "pass": true, "value": { "cap": 3, "applies": true, "same_side_alt_count": 2 } } ], "expected": { "horizon_hours": 6.0, "expected_net_bps": 77.64239870187478, "utility_bps_per_day": 49.97852704488459 }, "strategy": "directional", "exit_plan": { "tp_hard_r": 3.0, "stop_price": 0.013372, "exit_policy": "trail", "trail_arm_r": 1.0, "usd_tp_mode": "trail", "tp_hard_price": 0.014392, "usd_tp_r_mult": 2.0, "usd_tp_abs_usd": 20.0, "trail_arm_price": 0.0138821738, "daily_guardrails": { "loss_limit_usd": 100.0, "profit_target_usd": 100.0, "profit_floor_fraction": 0.5, "protect_profit_at_usd": 0.0 }, "trail_distance_r": 0.5, "time_stop_minutes": 360.0, "usd_trail_floor_usd": 14.0, "trail_distance_price": 0.00012754344999999986, "usd_tp_threshold_usd": 20.0, "usd_tp_trail_giveback": 0.3 }, "risk_plan": { "qty": 110074.0, "leverage": 30, "risk_usd": 29.999759268612014, "risk_tier": "fixed_margin", "margin_usd": 49.999598781020005, "notional_usd": 1499.9879634306, "entry_fee_usd": 0.7499939817153001, "stop_distance": { "pct": 1.871910716295496, "price": 0.00025508689999999973 }, "risk_modifiers": [ "risk_gates_bypassed", "stop_capped_30usd" ], "leverage_reason": "safe_leverage: min(cap config 30x, floor(1/(stop_pct×2+0.005))) — estimasi likuidasi >= 2× jarak stop", "est_exit_fee_usd": 0.7499939817153001, "entry_slippage_usd": 0.4498614306000265, "liquidation_estimate": 0.009094705634970498 }, "confidence": 0.8562462693999842, "data_as_of": "2026-08-29T23:00:00+00:00", "assessments": { "news": { "model": "claude-opus-5", "usage": { "metering": { "unit": "credit", "usage": 0.25122218693200665, "unitPlural": "credits" }, "context_usage_pct": 0.8718000054359436 }, "reason": "Neither item has a transmission channel to COTI. The $5.7M six-chain exploit is a Cosmos Labs/IBC ecosystem bug (ATOM); COTI runs its own DAG mainnet plus an Ethereum-based COTI V2 L2 and is not a Cosmos-SDK chain or IBC-connected asset. The Sandbox $700K bridge exploit is SAND-specific infrastructure with 1:1 repayment pledged, no shared bridge, custodian, or contract dependency with COTI. Both were routed by systemic keyword matching and are immaterial to this symbol. No evidence of hack, delisting, depeg, insolvency, chain halt, or frozen withdrawals touching COTI spot or perp venues. Caveat: headline-level RSS only, one feed failed, and small-cap tags are often incomplete, so a COTI-specific event could be uncovered rather than absent.", "symbol": "COTIUSDT", "decision": "allow", "evidence": [ { "id": "rss-b1b993df2ae0dede", "url": "https://www.theblock.co/news/defi/2026-08-29-cosmos-labs-says-it-wrongly-cleared-the-bug-behind-a-5-7-million-six-chain-hack-413061", "title": "Cosmos Labs says it wrongly cleared the bug behind a $5.7 million six-chain hack", "source": "theblock", "tokens": [ "ATOM" ], "age_text": "2h", "age_hours": 2.0, "matched_by": "systemic_keyword", "published_at": "2026-08-29T20:15:32+00:00" }, { "id": "rss-c9a9253dbc95eb4a", "url": "https://cointelegraph.com/news/the-sandbox-compensation-sand-bridge-exploit?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound", "title": "The Sandbox pledges 1:1 repayment after $700K bridge exploit", "source": "cointelegraph", "tokens": [], "age_text": "1d", "age_hours": 24.0, "matched_by": "systemic_keyword", "published_at": "2026-08-28T05:40:48+00:00" } ], "categories": [ "unknown" ], "confidence": 0.72, "risk_score": 8, "observed_at": "2026-08-29T23:09:22.704446+00:00", "unavailable": false, "corpus_count": 80, "evidence_ids": [ "rss-b1b993df2ae0dede", "rss-c9a9253dbc95eb4a" ], "evidence_hash": "81b5886b420e0675669aef889b9e58cfc3e5f0d7ddfbe0c02929ec539e41bed5", "evidence_count": 2, "freshness_hours": 2.0, "agent_routed_count": 0 }, "carry": { "score": -0.03743666801171471, "skill": "carry", "action": "no_trade", "symbol": "COTIUSDT", "vetoes": [ "carry_quality_gate" ], "factors": { "funding_mean": -0.0007875256280193236, "risk_buffer_bps": 168.40467751222207, "basis_change_vol": 0.007424401682691895, "funding_edge_bps": -330.7607637681159, "current_basis_pct": -2.0632638389647795, "annual_funding_pct": -86.23405626811594, "funding_persistence": 0.03743961352657005, "round_trip_cost_bps": 8.0, "basis_convergence_bps": 0.0 }, "reasons": [ "annual funding -86.23%; persistence 3.7%", "carry net EV -507.2 bps over 14d" ], "eligible": false, "metadata": { "perp_price": 0.013623, "spot_price": 0.01391 }, "confidence": 0.5668478260869565, "data_as_of": "2026-08-29T23:09:14.799869+00:00", "horizon_hours": 336.0, "expected_net_bps": -507.165441280338 }, "directional": { "score": 0.758176985550577, "skill": "directional", "action": "long", "symbol": "COTIUSDT", "vetoes": [], "factors": { "adx": 27.312231836791685, "rsi": 58.82278215272192, "flow_z": null, "atr_pct": 0.007721133729611833, "flow_term": 0.0, "kyle_lambda": null, "momentum_1h": 0.00895367766760402, "trend_1h_atr": 1.2257111450802651, "trend_5m_atr": 1.0265036807065606, "volume_ratio": 1.5596455648469671, "vwap_position": 0.010878481139584343, "gross_edge_bps": 73.17482370187479, "taker_imbalance": null, "funding_edge_bps": 20.467575, "round_trip_cost_bps": 16.0 }, "reasons": [ "long structure score +0.758", "1h trend aligned; BTC choppy", "directional net EV +77.6 bps" ], "eligible": true, "metadata": { "atr": 0.00010527765840325733, "frames": { "1h": { "vwap": null, "close": 0.013547, "ema_mid": 0.013184463073892897, "ema_fast": 0.013380253296758954, "ema_slow": 0.01288531564824987 }, "5m": { "vwap": 0.013488268129547065, "close": 0.013635, "ema_mid": 0.013527488870230382, "ema_fast": 0.013562577315991064, "ema_slow": 0.013454509412143953 } }, "btc_regime": "choppy", "mark_price": 0.013623, "ema_periods": { "mid": 21, "fast": 9, "slow": 50 }, "candle_price": 0.013635, "funding_rate": -0.00272901, "orderflow_enabled": false }, "confidence": 0.8562462693999842, "data_as_of": "2026-08-29T23:00:00+00:00", "horizon_hours": 6.0, "expected_net_bps": 77.64239870187478 }, "performance_carry": { "score": 0.0, "skill": "performance", "action": "allow", "symbol": "COTIUSDT", "vetoes": [], "factors": { "wins": 0.0, "losses": 0.0, "samples": 0.0, "expectancy_usd": 0.0, "minimum_samples": 8.0, "sample_maturity": 0.0, "posterior_win_rate": 0.5, "win_rate_lower_bound": 0.3210613300064863 }, "reasons": [ "shrunk win rate 50.0%; lower bound 32.1%; n=0/8 minimum" ], "eligible": true, "metadata": {}, "confidence": 0.15, "data_as_of": "2026-08-29T23:09:14.799869+00:00", "horizon_hours": 24.0, "expected_net_bps": 0.0 }, "performance_directional": { "score": 0.04761904761904767, "skill": "performance", "action": "allow", "symbol": "COTIUSDT", "vetoes": [], "factors": { "wins": 1.0, "losses": 0.0, "samples": 1.0, "expectancy_usd": 16.277724972259755, "minimum_samples": 8.0, "sample_maturity": 0.125, "posterior_win_rate": 0.5238095238095238, "win_rate_lower_bound": 0.34918326270954025 }, "reasons": [ "shrunk win rate 52.4%; lower bound 34.9%; n=1/8 minimum" ], "eligible": true, "metadata": {}, "confidence": 0.1880952380952381, "data_as_of": "2026-08-29T23:09:14.799869+00:00", "horizon_hours": 24.0, "expected_net_bps": 0.0 } }, "captured_at": "2026-08-29T23:09:14.799869+00:00", "chart_setup": { "notes": [], "swing": { "low": { "price": 0.013478, "formed_at": "2026-08-29T22:40:00+00:00", "distance_pct": 1.106150022258492 }, "high": { "price": 0.0137, "formed_at": "2026-08-29T22:10:00+00:00", "distance_pct": -0.5322124087591273 } }, "atr_pct": 0.007721133729611833, "support": { "kind": "london_high", "price": 0.013233, "distance_pct": 2.9780616640217636 }, "ema_vwap": { "1h": [ { "name": "EMA9", "value": 0.013380253296758954, "relation": "di_atas", "distance_pct": 1.8447603178097929 }, { "name": "EMA21", "value": 0.013184463073892897, "relation": "di_atas", "distance_pct": 3.357162317694683 }, { "name": "EMA50", "value": 0.01288531564824987, "relation": "di_atas", "distance_pct": 5.756717739785287 } ], "5m": [ { "name": "EMA9", "value": 0.013562577315991064, "relation": "di_atas", "distance_pct": 0.47564399085766107 }, { "name": "EMA21", "value": 0.013527488870230382, "relation": "di_atas", "distance_pct": 0.7362639934511526 }, { "name": "EMA50", "value": 0.013454509412143953, "relation": "di_atas", "distance_pct": 1.2826739539107985 }, { "name": "VWAP", "value": 0.013488268129547065, "relation": "di_atas", "distance_pct": 1.0291815755711569 } ] }, "narrative": "Entry LONG COTIUSDT di 0.0136271, di atas EMA9/EMA21/EMA50/VWAP pada frame 5m. Tren 1h naik (+1.23 ATR), searah posisi; rezim BTC choppy. Level 1h: support terdekat london_high 0.013233 (+2.98%); resistance terdekat newyork_high 0.013698 (-0.52%). Volatilitas ATR 0.77% dari harga; pola candle 5m terakhir: tweezer_bottom, outside_bar.", "resistance": { "kind": "newyork_high", "price": 0.013698, "distance_pct": -0.5176894437144121 }, "candle_patterns": { "1h": [], "5m": [ "tweezer_bottom", "outside_bar" ] } }, "horizon_hours": 6.0, "roi_scenarios": { "usd_tp": { "roa_pct": 3.566778730426713, "rom_pct": 38.50032097775964, "exit_price": 0.013819836646338847, "r_multiple": 0.6416720162959939, "net_pnl_usd": 19.2500060182847 }, "tp_hard": { "roa_pct": 15.226886813796808, "rom_pct": 164.36119931472675, "exit_price": 0.014392, "r_multiple": 2.7393533219121116, "net_pnl_usd": 82.17994020903598 }, "fee_note": "net = gross(fill exit ber-slippage per sisi) − fee entry − fee exit taker; funding di luar skenario (belum diketahui saat entry); usd_tp ter-cap di ambang dolar → net = ambang − fee entry; usd_tp_mode=trail: sentuh ambang TIDAK menutup — trailing USD di-arm, lantai awal usd_trail_floor = ambang × (1 − giveback) dan naik mengikuti peak uPnL bersih (exit reason usd_trail_stop)", "stop_loss": { "roa_pct": -5.559677318517369, "rom_pct": -60.01195405527184, "exit_price": 0.013372, "r_multiple": -1.0001992342545305, "net_pnl_usd": -30.005736248285988 }, "trail_floor": { "roa_pct": 2.237940631722628, "rom_pct": 24.15665202763599, "exit_price": 0.01375463035, "r_multiple": 0.4026108671272663, "net_pnl_usd": 12.078229092745127 }, "usd_trail_floor": { "roa_pct": 2.455055837341238, "rom_pct": 26.50022468443175, "exit_price": 0.013765284227587526, "r_multiple": 0.4416704114071957, "net_pnl_usd": 13.2500060182847 } }, "snapshot_kind": "entry_snapshot", "thesis_version": 2, "breakeven_price": 0.013644814248126363, "expected_net_bps": 77.64239870187478, "funding_projection": { "note": "estimasi = rate saat entry × notional × settlement dalam max_hold; rate berubah tiap interval, interval riil simbol diinferensi dari history (fallback config)", "direction": "terima", "est_usd_paid": -24.560892912490452, "horizon_hours": 6.0, "interval_hours": 1.0, "est_settlements": 6.0, "interval_source": "history_inference", "funding_rate_at_entry": -0.00272901 }, "utility_bps_per_day": 49.97852704488459 }, "funding_paid": -3.9136700185704, "last_mark_at": "2026-08-30T00:20:23.037405+00:00", "notional_usd": 1499.9879634306, "trail_peak_r": 0.23240354561523902, "working_type": "MARK_PRICE", "ambiguous_bar": false, "current_price": 0.013356, "price_move_pct": -1.9013491430805995, "risk_modifiers": [ "risk_gates_bypassed", "stop_capped_30usd" ], "unrealized_pnl": -29.839619430600013, "equity_at_entry": 539.7028375792103, "exit_mark_price": 0.013372, "last_funding_at": "2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:00", "usd_trail_armed": false, "barrier_evidence": { "series": "mark", "trigger": "stop_loss", "last_low": 0.013368, "mark_low": 0.013368, "last_high": 0.013456, "mark_high": 0.013454, "fill_price": 0.013372, "bar_open_ms": 1788048960000, "both_touched": false }, "trail_r_distance": 0.00025508689999999973, "usd_peak_net_usd": null, "exit_shadow_state": { "ptp": { "at": null, "open": true, "r_mult": 0.8, "pnl_usd": null, "fraction": 0.75, "part_done": false, "realized_usd": 0.0 }, "tstop": { "at": null, "open": true, "min_r": 0.5, "minutes": 120.0, "pnl_usd": null }, "peak_r": 0.23240354561523902 }, "last_processed_ts": "2026-08-30T00:16:59.999000+00:00", "take_profit_price": 0.014392, "r_multiple_realized": -0.869742520134655, "utility_bps_per_day": 49.97852704488459, "liquidation_estimate": 0.009322445144476409, "return_on_margin_pct": -52.18455120807932, "usd_tp_threshold_usd": 20.0, "return_on_account_pct": -4.834524559246207, "usd_tp_trail_giveback": 0.3, "safe_leverage_suggested": 23 }, { "qty": 1.779, "side": "long", "event": "meta_close", "shadow": { "bars": 360, "last": { "at": "2026-08-30T06:42:59.999000+00:00", "price": 836.67431723, "net_usd": -13.409926112780589 }, "complete": true, "max_adverse": { "at": "2026-08-30T04:13:00+00:00", "price": 824.74045133, "net_usd": -34.623292455483885, "rom_pct": -69.25750605719617 }, "max_favorable": { "at": "2026-08-30T06:36:00+00:00", "price": 838.9, "net_usd": -9.45360346274555, "rom_pct": -18.9101888540854 }, "vs_actual_usd": 7.874473912324886, "follow_minutes": 360, "checked_through": "2026-08-30T06:42:59.999000+00:00" }, "source": "live", "symbol": "ZECUSDT", "net_pnl": -17.328077375070436, "exit_fee": 0.7420384829755579, "leverage": 30, "risk_usd": 16.23909601656601, "strategy": "directional", "trade_id": "f5e8d85b45744a138003df3d0cf06c30", "closed_at": "2026-08-30T00:43:02.288957+00:00", "entry_fee": 0.7498817332569768, "gross_pnl": -15.686500562837901, "llm_judge": { "model": "claude-opus-5", "score": 56.0, "reasons": [ "Bahan bakar membaik sejak penilaian lalu: volume_ratio 0.57 -> 2.85, taker 0.482 -> 0.525 (lolos gate), harga nyaris diam (+0.34%) - bukan chasing", "RSI 57 netral dan harga menempel klaster EMA 5m di atas EMA 1h, struktur 1h masih searah", "Cacat: momentum_1h datar (0.001) setelah lari 1.93 ATR, ADX 19.8 + BTC choppy, OI 1h hanya +0.4% dan taker belum >= 0.55 - konfirmasi kelanjutan belum penuh", "Funding di persentil 97.5 (long padat) dan harga 2.75% di atas VWAP 5m (~2x ATR 1h), pullback ke EMA fast 1h lebih sehat" ], "verdict": "approve", "key_risk": "Plateau pasca-run dengan OI flat dan positioning long padat (funding p97.5): ekspansi volume bisa jadi distribusi/shakeout, bukan kelanjutan breakout", "better_entry": 832.3332424186353, "perubahan_material": { "alasan": [], "memburuk": false, "oi_1h_pct": { "dulu": 0.41, "kini": 0.4 }, "volume_ratio": { "dulu": 0.57, "kini": 2.85, "perubahan_pct": 399.5 }, "taker_ratio_4h": { "dulu": 0.482, "kini": 0.525 }, "harga_berubah_pct": 0.34 }, "better_entry_anchor": "ema_fast_1h" }, "opened_at": "2026-08-29T23:45:53.186937+00:00", "risk_tier": "fixed_margin", "tick_size": 0.01, "confidence": 0.8507269198389951, "exit_price": 834.219767257513, "margin_usd": 49.992115550465115, "paper_only": true, "stop_price": 835.01, "entry_price": 843.0373617279109, "exit_policy": "trail", "exit_shadow": { "ptp_mode": "tanpa_partial", "ptp_pnl_usd": -17.3281, "real_net_usd": -17.3281, "tstop_pnl_usd": -17.3281, "tstop_triggered": false }, "sizing_mode": "fixed_margin", "trail_armed": false, "usd_tp_mode": "trail", "close_reason": "stop_loss", "entry_thesis": { "setup": { "side": "long", "score": 0.7718267699849923, "strategy": "directional", "btc_regime": "choppy", "confidence": 0.8507269198389951, "score_note": "komponen skor ChartSkill yang sudah dihitung saat entry; mom_z tidak tersedia di jalur meta (null)", "gross_edge_bps": 30.673073475688074, "confidence_tier": "fixed_margin", "score_breakdown": { "adx": 24.05554908681232, "rsi": 59.72770812120744, "mom_z": null, "atr_pct": 0.003179270237157956, "momentum_1h": 0.0029774310724706154, "trend_1h_atr": 1.926072775917532, "trend_5m_atr": 1.0302773392115285, "volume_ratio": 0.5553794048784972, "vwap_position": 0.028687142234198028 }, "funding_edge_bps": -0.7500000000000001, "round_trip_cost_bps": 16.0 }, "action": "long", "levels": { "stop": 835.01, "entry": 843.0373617279109, "take_profit": 867.13, "mark_at_entry": 842.78452637 }, "reason": "selected long utility=8.88 bps/day (news x0.95)", "symbol": "ZECUSDT", "vetoes": [], "filters": [ { "name": "session_window", "pass": true, "value": { "hour_utc": 23, "window_utc": null } }, { "name": "btc_gate", "pass": true, "value": { "applies": true, "btc_return_7d": 0.015495942899294457 } }, { "name": "funding_extreme", "pass": true, "value": { "notes": null, "pctile": 97.5, "pctile_hi": 0.0003216269999999998, "pctile_lo": -0.000147339, "funding_rate": 0.0001 } }, { "name": "vol_target", "pass": true, "value": { "vol_scale": 1.0, "realized_vol_daily_pct": 1.1974657246312028 } }, { "name": "taker_flow_gate", "pass": true, "value": { "min_ratio": 0.52, "taker_ratio_4h": 0.5247216239637363 } }, { "name": "freshness_gate", "pass": true, "value": { "atr_1h": 12.240714285714294, "dist_low_atr": -4.159071015930437, "made_new_low": false, "dist_high_atr": -1.049775339907803, "made_new_high": false, "max_atr_above": 1.0 } }, { "name": "exhaustion", "pass": true, "value": { "notes": null, "enabled": true, "max_pct": 40.0, "move_24h_pct": 4.791196177024704 } }, { "name": "overextended", "pass": true, "value": { "price": 842.15, "enabled": true, "max_pct": 40.0, "ema50_1h": 810.1992926147452, "ema_source": "chart_skill_1h", "dist_ema50_pct": 3.9435615010401603 } }, { "name": "atr_band", "pass": true, "value": { "enabled": true, "dead_pct": 1.2, "atr_pct_1h": 1.3682774176757622, "extreme_pct": 15.0 } }, { "name": "oi_crowd", "pass": true, "value": { "note": null, "enabled": true, "max_pct": 8.0, "oi_change_1h_pct": 0.37406002914759373 } }, { "name": "crowd_positioning", "pass": true, "value": { "note": null, "side": "long", "enabled": false, "ls_ratio": null, "threshold": 0.67, "delta_block": 0.3, "ls_delta_1h": null } }, { "name": "stop_truncated", "pass": true, "value": { "atr_pct": 0.003179270237157956, "cap_pct": 0.02, "enabled": true, "ratio_3atr_vs_cap": 0.47689053557369343 } }, { "name": "plateau", "pass": true, "value": { "count": 0, "enabled": false, "conditions": null, "min_conditions": null } }, { "name": "universe", "pass": true, "value": { "rank": 4, "size": 35, "quote_volume_24h": 884638727.79 } }, { "name": "regime", "pass": true, "value": { "note": null, "btc_regime": "choppy", "choppy_no_trade": false } }, { "name": "symbol_recent_loss", "pass": true, "value": { "enabled": true, "block_hours": 24.0, "block_until": null, "manual_exempt": null } }, { "name": "news", "pass": true, "value": { "reason": "Neither item has a transmission channel to ZEC. The Cosmos Labs disclosure concerns an IBC/Cosmos SDK bug and a $5.7M six-chain exploit in the ATOM ecosystem; Zcash runs its own independent proof-of-work chain with no Cosmos SDK, IBC, or Co", "binding": false, "decision": "allow", "risk_score": 8, "unavailable": false } }, { "name": "portfolio_heat", "pass": true, "value": { "cap_usd": 6.0, "risk_usd": 16.23909601656601, "open_risk_after_usd": 76.23677219504816, "open_risk_before_usd": 59.99767617848215 } }, { "name": "correlated_side", "pass": true, "value": { "cap": 3, "applies": true, "same_side_alt_count": 2 } } ], "expected": { "horizon_hours": 6.0, "expected_net_bps": 13.923073475688074, "utility_bps_per_day": 8.882196375679506 }, "strategy": "directional", "exit_plan": { "tp_hard_r": 3.0, "stop_price": 835.01, "exit_policy": "trail", "trail_arm_r": 1.0, "usd_tp_mode": "trail", "tp_hard_price": 867.13, "usd_tp_r_mult": 2.0, "usd_tp_abs_usd": 20.0, "trail_arm_price": 851.0647234558219, "daily_guardrails": { "loss_limit_usd": 100.0, "profit_target_usd": 100.0, "profit_floor_fraction": 0.5, "protect_profit_at_usd": 0.0 }, "trail_distance_r": 0.5, "time_stop_minutes": 360.0, "usd_trail_floor_usd": 14.0, "trail_distance_price": 4.0136808639554715, "usd_tp_threshold_usd": 20.0, "usd_tp_trail_giveback": 0.3 }, "risk_plan": { "qty": 1.779, "leverage": 30, "risk_usd": 16.23909601656601, "risk_tier": "fixed_margin", "margin_usd": 49.992115550465115, "notional_usd": 1499.7634665139535, "entry_fee_usd": 0.7498817332569768, "stop_distance": { "pct": 0.9521952516384158, "price": 8.027361727910943 }, "risk_modifiers": [ "risk_gates_bypassed" ], "leverage_reason": "safe_leverage: min(cap config 30x, floor(1/(stop_pct×2+0.005))) — estimasi likuidasi >= 2× jarak stop", "est_exit_fee_usd": 0.7498817332569768, "entry_slippage_usd": 0.4497941017235862, "liquidation_estimate": 558.6223431415934 }, "confidence": 0.8507269198389951, "data_as_of": "2026-08-29T23:40:00+00:00", "assessments": { "news": { "model": "claude-opus-5", "usage": { "metering": { "unit": "credit", "usage": 0.25146524388059704, "unitPlural": "credits" }, "context_usage_pct": 0.8719000220298767 }, "reason": "Neither item has a transmission channel to ZEC. The Cosmos Labs disclosure concerns an IBC/Cosmos SDK bug and a $5.7M six-chain exploit in the ATOM ecosystem; Zcash runs its own independent proof-of-work chain with no Cosmos SDK, IBC, or Cosmos-hub bridge dependency for ZECUSDT spot or perp legs. The Sandbox item is a $700K SAND bridge exploit with announced 1:1 repayment, confined to that project's bridge and unrelated to Zcash's chain, custody, or venue infrastructure. Both were routed by the systemic-keyword reader and are irrelevant to this symbol, so they are scored low. No fresh ZEC-specific evidence of hack, delisting, depeg, insolvency, chain halt, or frozen withdrawals is present; note that this is absence of adverse headlines, not positive confirmation of venue or chain health, g", "symbol": "ZECUSDT", "decision": "allow", "evidence": [ { "id": "rss-b1b993df2ae0dede", "url": "https://www.theblock.co/news/defi/2026-08-29-cosmos-labs-says-it-wrongly-cleared-the-bug-behind-a-5-7-million-six-chain-hack-413061", "title": "Cosmos Labs says it wrongly cleared the bug behind a $5.7 million six-chain hack", "source": "theblock", "tokens": [ "ATOM" ], "age_text": "3h", "age_hours": 3.0, "matched_by": "systemic_keyword", "published_at": "2026-08-29T20:15:32+00:00" }, { "id": "rss-c9a9253dbc95eb4a", "url": "https://cointelegraph.com/news/the-sandbox-compensation-sand-bridge-exploit?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound", "title": "The Sandbox pledges 1:1 repayment after $700K bridge exploit", "source": "cointelegraph", "tokens": [], "age_text": "1d", "age_hours": 24.0, "matched_by": "systemic_keyword", "published_at": "2026-08-28T05:40:48+00:00" } ], "categories": [ "unknown" ], "confidence": 0.76, "risk_score": 8, "observed_at": "2026-08-29T23:46:01.347198+00:00", "unavailable": false, "corpus_count": 80, "evidence_ids": [ "rss-b1b993df2ae0dede", "rss-c9a9253dbc95eb4a" ], "evidence_hash": "217b36f41bf2c293c0cbb54a8564bff2e92cd7e24258a2141800057b0b6753b7", "evidence_count": 2, "freshness_hours": 3.0, "agent_routed_count": 0 }, "carry": { "score": 0.1088514664540257, "skill": "carry", "action": "carry", "symbol": "ZECUSDT", "vetoes": [], "factors": { "funding_mean": 6.503762962962964e-05, "risk_buffer_bps": 7.2120017316263825, "basis_change_vol": 0.00031795315060638814, "funding_edge_bps": 27.315804444444446, "current_basis_pct": -0.042160688616366127, "annual_funding_pct": 7.121620444444446, "funding_persistence": 0.9037037037037037, "round_trip_cost_bps": 8.0, "basis_convergence_bps": 0.0 }, "reasons": [ "annual funding 7.12%; persistence 90.4%", "carry net EV +12.1 bps over 14d" ], "eligible": true, "metadata": { "perp_price": 842.78452637, "spot_price": 843.14 }, "confidence": 0.95, "data_as_of": "2026-08-29T23:45:53.186937+00:00", "horizon_hours": 336.0, "expected_net_bps": 12.103802712818062 }, "directional": { "score": 0.7718267699849923, "skill": "directional", "action": "long", "symbol": "ZECUSDT", "vetoes": [], "factors": { "adx": 24.05554908681232, "rsi": 59.72770812120744, "flow_z": null, "atr_pct": 0.003179270237157956, "flow_term": 0.0, "kyle_lambda": null, "momentum_1h": 0.0029774310724706154, "trend_1h_atr": 1.926072775917532, "trend_5m_atr": 1.0302773392115285, "volume_ratio": 0.5553794048784972, "vwap_position": 0.028687142234198028, "gross_edge_bps": 30.673073475688074, "taker_imbalance": null, "funding_edge_bps": -0.7500000000000001, "round_trip_cost_bps": 16.0 }, "reasons": [ "long structure score +0.772", "1h trend aligned; BTC choppy", "directional net EV +13.9 bps" ], "eligible": true, "metadata": { "atr": 2.6774224302225726, "frames": { "1h": { "vwap": null, "close": 839.87, "ema_mid": 821.2469965502144, "ema_fast": 832.3332424186353, "ema_slow": 810.1992926147452 }, "5m": { "vwap": 818.6648451451824, "close": 842.15, "ema_mid": 839.6407068042251, "ema_fast": 840.6432224845635, "ema_slow": 837.8847348272085 } }, "btc_regime": "choppy", "mark_price": 842.78452637, "ema_periods": { "mid": 21, "fast": 9, "slow": 50 }, "candle_price": 842.15, "funding_rate": 0.0001, "orderflow_enabled": false }, "confidence": 0.8507269198389951, "data_as_of": "2026-08-29T23:40:00+00:00", "horizon_hours": 6.0, "expected_net_bps": 13.923073475688074 }, "performance_carry": { "score": 0.0, "skill": "performance", "action": "allow", "symbol": "ZECUSDT", "vetoes": [], "factors": { "wins": 0.0, "losses": 0.0, "samples": 0.0, "expectancy_usd": 0.0, "minimum_samples": 8.0, "sample_maturity": 0.0, "posterior_win_rate": 0.5, "win_rate_lower_bound": 0.3210613300064863 }, "reasons": [ "shrunk win rate 50.0%; lower bound 32.1%; n=0/8 minimum" ], "eligible": true, "metadata": {}, "confidence": 0.15, "data_as_of": "2026-08-29T23:45:53.186937+00:00", "horizon_hours": 24.0, "expected_net_bps": 0.0 }, "performance_directional": { "score": 0.04761904761904767, "skill": "performance", "action": "allow", "symbol": "ZECUSDT", "vetoes": [], "factors": { "wins": 1.0, "losses": 0.0, "samples": 1.0, "expectancy_usd": 46.268613689870136, "minimum_samples": 8.0, "sample_maturity": 0.125, "posterior_win_rate": 0.5238095238095238, "win_rate_lower_bound": 0.34918326270954025 }, "reasons": [ "shrunk win rate 52.4%; lower bound 34.9%; n=1/8 minimum" ], "eligible": true, "metadata": {}, "confidence": 0.1880952380952381, "data_as_of": "2026-08-29T23:45:53.186937+00:00", "horizon_hours": 24.0, "expected_net_bps": 0.0 } }, "captured_at": "2026-08-29T23:45:53.186937+00:00", "chart_setup": { "notes": [], "swing": { "low": { "price": 837.89, "formed_at": "2026-08-29T23:15:00+00:00", "distance_pct": 0.6143242821743842 }, "high": { "price": 844.99, "formed_at": "2026-08-29T23:30:00+00:00", "distance_pct": -0.23108418704234074 } }, "atr_pct": 0.003179270237157956, "support": { "kind": "fvg_bull_top", "price": 831.04, "distance_pct": 1.4436563496234802 }, "ema_vwap": { "1h": [ { "name": "EMA9", "value": 832.3332424186353, "relation": "di_atas", "distance_pct": 1.2860377026599388 }, { "name": "EMA21", "value": 821.2469965502144, "relation": "di_atas", "distance_pct": 2.6533266202775354 }, { "name": "EMA50", "value": 810.1992926147452, "relation": "di_atas", "distance_pct": 4.0530853843611565 } ], "5m": [ { "name": "EMA9", "value": 840.6432224845635, "relation": "di_atas", "distance_pct": 0.28479849468975293 }, { "name": "EMA21", "value": 839.6407068042251, "relation": "di_atas", "distance_pct": 0.4045367138777573 }, { "name": "EMA50", "value": 837.8847348272085, "relation": "di_atas", "distance_pct": 0.6149565311945964 }, { "name": "VWAP", "value": 818.6648451451824, "relation": "di_atas", "distance_pct": 2.9771055551318164 } ] }, "narrative": "Entry LONG ZECUSDT di 843.037, di atas EMA9/EMA21/EMA50/VWAP pada frame 5m. Tren 1h naik (+1.93 ATR), searah posisi; rezim BTC choppy. Level 1h: support terdekat fvg_bull_top 831.04 (+1.44%); resistance terdekat round_number 850 (-0.82%). Volatilitas ATR 0.32% dari harga; pola candle 5m terakhir: tweezer_top, doji, inside_bar.", "resistance": { "kind": "round_number", "price": 850.0, "distance_pct": -0.8191339143634195 }, "candle_patterns": { "1h": [ "three_soldiers" ], "5m": [ "tweezer_top", "doji", "inside_bar" ] } }, "horizon_hours": 6.0, "roi_scenarios": { "usd_tp": { "roa_pct": 3.5216293244324204, "rom_pct": 38.50630855441749, "exit_price": 854.9634752022811, "r_multiple": 1.185418095139371, "net_pnl_usd": 19.250118266743023 }, "tp_hard": { "roa_pct": 7.478075153552697, "rom_pct": 81.76700121675424, "exit_price": 867.13, "r_multiple": 2.517200076206831, "net_pnl_usd": 40.87705373043 }, "fee_note": "net = gross(fill exit ber-slippage per sisi) − fee entry − fee exit taker; funding di luar skenario (belum diketahui saat entry); usd_tp ter-cap di ambang dolar → net = ambang − fee entry; usd_tp_mode=trail: sentuh ambang TIDAK menutup — trailing USD di-arm, lantai awal usd_trail_floor = ambang × (1 − giveback) dan naik mengikuti peak uPnL bersih (exit reason usd_trail_stop)", "stop_loss": { "roa_pct": -2.9670636304630644, "rom_pct": -32.442559147991716, "exit_price": 835.01, "r_multiple": -0.9987453513574146, "net_pnl_usd": -16.21872165679201 }, "trail_floor": { "roa_pct": 0.948576499558412, "rom_pct": 10.371954573996053, "exit_price": 847.0510425918665, "r_multiple": 0.31930099496821224, "net_pnl_usd": 5.185159515473859 }, "usd_trail_floor": { "roa_pct": 2.423985369532733, "rom_pct": 26.50441598809224, "exit_price": 851.5880941221052, "r_multiple": 0.8159394003968056, "net_pnl_usd": 13.250118266743023 } }, "snapshot_kind": "entry_snapshot", "thesis_version": 2, "breakeven_price": 844.1340610374956, "expected_net_bps": 13.923073475688074, "funding_projection": { "note": "estimasi = rate saat entry × notional × settlement dalam max_hold; rate berubah tiap interval, interval riil simbol diinferensi dari history (fallback config)", "direction": "bayar", "est_usd_paid": 0.11248225998854652, "horizon_hours": 6.0, "interval_hours": 8.0, "est_settlements": 0.75, "interval_source": "history_inference", "funding_rate_at_entry": 0.0001 }, "utility_bps_per_day": 8.882196375679506 }, "funding_paid": 0.149656596, "last_mark_at": "2026-08-30T00:43:02.288957+00:00", "notional_usd": 1499.7634665139535, "trail_peak_r": 0.18220659809106496, "working_type": "MARK_PRICE", "ambiguous_bar": false, "current_price": 834.47010829, "price_move_pct": -1.0459316360932225, "risk_modifiers": [ "risk_gates_bypassed" ], "unrealized_pnl": -15.241143866043577, "equity_at_entry": 546.6253399581047, "exit_mark_price": 834.47010829, "last_funding_at": "2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:00", "usd_trail_armed": false, "barrier_evidence": { "series": "mark", "trigger": "stop_loss", "last_low": null, "mark_low": 834.47010829, "last_high": null, "mark_high": 834.47010829, "fill_price": 834.47010829, "bar_open_ms": 1788050580000, "both_touched": false }, "trail_r_distance": 8.027361727910943, "usd_peak_net_usd": null, "exit_shadow_state": { "ptp": { "at": null, "open": true, "r_mult": 0.8, "pnl_usd": null, "fraction": 0.75, "part_done": false, "realized_usd": 0.0 }, "tstop": { "at": null, "open": true, "min_r": 0.5, "minutes": 120.0, "pnl_usd": null }, "peak_r": 0.18220659809106496 }, "last_processed_ts": "2026-08-30T00:42:59.999000+00:00", "take_profit_price": 867.13, "r_multiple_realized": -1.0670592351565336, "utility_bps_per_day": 8.882196375679506, "liquidation_estimate": 578.8944025176176, "return_on_margin_pct": -34.66162050609442, "usd_tp_threshold_usd": 20.0, "return_on_account_pct": -3.1700098967966834, "usd_tp_trail_giveback": 0.3, "safe_leverage_suggested": 30 }, { "qty": 297058.0, "side": "long", "event": "meta_close", "shadow": { "bars": 360, "last": { "at": "2026-08-30T07:17:59.999000+00:00", "price": 0.00488037, "net_usd": -52.15528139774267 }, "complete": true, "max_adverse": { "at": "2026-08-30T06:18:00+00:00", "price": 0.00487316, "net_usd": -54.29535646846718, "rom_pct": -108.59081076746722 }, "max_favorable": { "at": "2026-08-30T02:22:00+00:00", "price": 0.00507013, "net_usd": 4.169357356851974, "rom_pct": 8.338722226141078 }, "vs_actual_usd": 34.17293244001095, "follow_minutes": 360, "checked_through": "2026-08-30T07:17:59.999000+00:00" }, "source": "live", "symbol": "PUMPUSDT", "net_pnl": -30.00357508315898, "exit_fee": 0.7357404066415001, "leverage": 30, "risk_usd": 29.999972972704004, "strategy": "directional", "trade_id": "54e4fd1efa09422c8672f5b039e6432f", "closed_at": "2026-08-30T01:18:08.983599+00:00", "entry_fee": 0.7499993243176, "gross_pnl": -28.51783535219988, "llm_judge": { "model": "claude-opus-5", "score": 54.0, "reasons": [ "Lokasi entry sehat: harga hanya 0.29% di atas VWAP 5m dan di atas semua EMA 5m/1h, RSI 58.6 dan move 24h 9.3% belum ekstrem", "Bahan bakar lemah: volume_ratio 0.83 di bawah rata-rata, taker 0.524 nyaris di batas gerbang, momentum_1h mendingin ke 0.0048 dengan harga datar", "Sejak penilaian 21 menit lalu tidak memburuk — volume +19.9% dan OI 0.77%->0.86% pada harga tetap, jadi verdict dipertahankan", "Funding di persentil 97.5 menandakan long sudah padat; biaya kecil tapi rawan long-squeeze saat BTC choppy" ], "verdict": "approve", "key_risk": "Long padat (funding p97.5) dengan volume mengering dan taker marjinal — pullback ke bawah VWAP bisa jadi shakeout, bukan pullback beli", "better_entry": 0.005037632028331118, "perubahan_material": { "alasan": [], "memburuk": false, "oi_1h_pct": { "dulu": 0.77, "kini": 0.86 }, "volume_ratio": { "dulu": 0.69, "kini": 0.83, "perubahan_pct": 19.9 }, "taker_ratio_4h": { "dulu": 0.524, "kini": 0.524 }, "harga_berubah_pct": 0.02 }, "better_entry_anchor": "vwap_5m" }, "opened_at": "2026-08-30T00:38:15.478043+00:00", "risk_tier": "fixed_margin", "tick_size": 1e-06, "confidence": 0.8662907862792625, "exit_price": 0.0049535135, "margin_usd": 49.99995495450666, "paper_only": true, "stop_price": 0.004955, "entry_price": 0.0050495144, "exit_policy": "trail", "exit_shadow": { "ptp_mode": "tanpa_partial", "ptp_pnl_usd": -30.0036, "real_net_usd": -30.0036, "tstop_pnl_usd": -30.0036, "tstop_triggered": false }, "sizing_mode": "fixed_margin", "trail_armed": false, "usd_tp_mode": "trail", "close_reason": "stop_loss", "entry_thesis": { "setup": { "side": "long", "score": 0.7375983987124093, "strategy": "directional", "btc_regime": "choppy", "confidence": 0.8662907862792625, "score_note": "komponen skor ChartSkill yang sudah dihitung saat entry; mom_z tidak tersedia di jalur meta (null)", "gross_edge_bps": 61.05076618042914, "confidence_tier": "fixed_margin", "score_breakdown": { "adx": 32.65291674685933, "rsi": 58.593314634893595, "mom_z": null, "atr_pct": 0.006621572529116396, "momentum_1h": 0.004773269689737347, "trend_1h_atr": 1.3549509728359779, "trend_5m_atr": 1.795854761967622, "volume_ratio": 0.8327545486805431, "vwap_position": 0.0028521280609774663 }, "funding_edge_bps": -0.37500000000000006, "round_trip_cost_bps": 16.0 }, "action": "long", "levels": { "stop": 0.004955, "entry": 0.0050495144, "take_profit": 0.005333, "mark_at_entry": 0.005048 }, "reason": "selected long utility=29.01 bps/day (news x0.94)", "symbol": "PUMPUSDT", "vetoes": [], "filters": [ { "name": "session_window", "pass": true, "value": { "hour_utc": 0, "window_utc": null } }, { "name": "btc_gate", "pass": true, "value": { "applies": true, "btc_return_7d": 0.01448021327244775 } }, { "name": "funding_extreme", "pass": true, "value": { "notes": null, "pctile": 97.5, "pctile_hi": 0.0003582379999999999, "pctile_lo": -0.000136284, "funding_rate": 5e-05 } }, { "name": "vol_target", "pass": true, "value": { "vol_scale": 1.0, "realized_vol_daily_pct": 1.1610275584807306 } }, { "name": "taker_flow_gate", "pass": true, "value": { "min_ratio": 0.52, "taker_ratio_4h": 0.5244357462067901 } }, { "name": "freshness_gate", "pass": true, "value": { "atr_1h": 0.00010471428571428592, "dist_low_atr": -4.75579809004092, "made_new_low": false, "dist_high_atr": -0.6493860845839039, "made_new_high": false, "max_atr_above": 1.0 } }, { "name": "exhaustion", "pass": true, "value": { "notes": null, "enabled": true, "max_pct": 40.0, "move_24h_pct": 9.338521400778221 } }, { "name": "overextended", "pass": true, "value": { "price": 0.005052, "enabled": true, "max_pct": 40.0, "ema50_1h": 0.004751969381762503, "ema_source": "chart_skill_1h", "dist_ema50_pct": 6.313816317693033 } }, { "name": "atr_band", "pass": true, "value": { "enabled": true, "dead_pct": 1.2, "atr_pct_1h": 2.154926207842865, "extreme_pct": 15.0 } }, { "name": "oi_crowd", "pass": true, "value": { "note": null, "enabled": true, "max_pct": 8.0, "oi_change_1h_pct": 0.8635895559345963 } }, { "name": "crowd_positioning", "pass": true, "value": { "note": null, "side": "long", "enabled": false, "ls_ratio": null, "threshold": 0.67, "delta_block": 0.3, "ls_delta_1h": null } }, { "name": "stop_truncated", "pass": true, "value": { "atr_pct": 0.006621572529116396, "cap_pct": 0.02, "enabled": true, "ratio_3atr_vs_cap": 0.9932358793674594 } }, { "name": "plateau", "pass": true, "value": { "count": 0, "enabled": false, "conditions": null, "min_conditions": null } }, { "name": "universe", "pass": true, "value": { "rank": 16, "size": 35, "quote_volume_24h": 157669419.497844 } }, { "name": "regime", "pass": true, "value": { "note": null, "btc_regime": "choppy", "choppy_no_trade": false } }, { "name": "symbol_recent_loss", "pass": true, "value": { "enabled": true, "block_hours": 24.0, "block_until": null, "manual_exempt": null } }, { "name": "news", "pass": true, "value": { "reason": "No fresh evidence touches PUMP's transmission channels (pump.fun platform/treasury, the Solana L1 it launches on, its bridges, custodians, or listing venues). rss-4707d2adaa759e85 is tagged SOL only because the affected neobank issues a Sol", "binding": false, "decision": "allow", "risk_score": 10, "unavailable": false } }, { "name": "portfolio_heat", "pass": true, "value": { "cap_usd": 6.0, "risk_usd": 29.999972972704004, "open_risk_after_usd": 76.23746007034886, "open_risk_before_usd": 46.23748709764486 } }, { "name": "correlated_side", "pass": true, "value": { "cap": 3, "applies": true, "same_side_alt_count": 2 } } ], "expected": { "horizon_hours": 6.0, "expected_net_bps": 44.67576618042914, "utility_bps_per_day": 29.0149218532813 }, "strategy": "directional", "exit_plan": { "tp_hard_r": 3.0, "stop_price": 0.004955, "exit_policy": "trail", "trail_arm_r": 1.0, "usd_tp_mode": "trail", "tp_hard_price": 0.005333, "usd_tp_r_mult": 2.0, "usd_tp_abs_usd": 20.0, "trail_arm_price": 0.0051440287999999995, "daily_guardrails": { "loss_limit_usd": 100.0, "profit_target_usd": 100.0, "profit_floor_fraction": 0.5, "protect_profit_at_usd": 0.0 }, "trail_distance_r": 0.5, "time_stop_minutes": 360.0, "usd_trail_floor_usd": 14.0, "trail_distance_price": 4.7257199999999836e-05, "usd_tp_threshold_usd": 20.0, "usd_tp_trail_giveback": 0.3 }, "risk_plan": { "qty": 297058.0, "leverage": 30, "risk_usd": 29.999972972704004, "risk_tier": "fixed_margin", "margin_usd": 49.99995495450666, "notional_usd": 1499.9986486352, "entry_fee_usd": 0.7499993243176, "stop_distance": { "pct": 1.8717522619600742, "price": 9.451439999999967e-05 }, "risk_modifiers": [ "risk_gates_bypassed", "stop_capped_30usd" ], "leverage_reason": "safe_leverage: min(cap config 30x, floor(1/(stop_pct×2+0.005))) — estimasi likuidasi >= 2× jarak stop", "est_exit_fee_usd": 0.7499993243176, "entry_slippage_usd": 0.4498646351998431, "liquidation_estimate": 0.003541089450069824 }, "confidence": 0.8662907862792625, "data_as_of": "2026-08-30T00:30:00+00:00", "assessments": { "news": { "model": "claude-opus-5", "usage": { "metering": { "unit": "credit", "usage": 0.31990763499170816, "unitPlural": "credits" }, "context_usage_pct": 0.9190999865531921 }, "reason": "No fresh evidence touches PUMP's transmission channels (pump.fun platform/treasury, the Solana L1 it launches on, its bridges, custodians, or listing venues). rss-4707d2adaa759e85 is tagged SOL only because the affected neobank issues a Solana-based token; the $1.1M loss is confined to that firm's card program and its own token, with no Solana chain, validator, or bridge failure implied, so it does not propagate to PUMP. rss-b1b993df2ae0dede (Cosmos/IBC six-chain bug) and rss-c9a9253dbc95eb4a (Sandbox bridge exploit, SAND) are different ecosystems entirely and were routed here in error. No hack, delisting, depeg, insolvency, chain halt, or withdrawal freeze affecting PUMP or Solana is present. Residual score reflects headline-only coverage plus one failed feed and incomplete small-cap toke", "symbol": "PUMPUSDT", "decision": "allow", "evidence": [ { "id": "rss-4707d2adaa759e85", "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/web3/2026/08/29/a-usd1-1-million-crypto-card-hack-crashed-a-neobank-s-token-49", "title": "A $1.1 million crypto card hack crashed a neobank's token 49%", "source": "coindesk", "tokens": [ "SOL" ], "age_text": "49min", "age_hours": 0.8166666666666667, "matched_by": "systemic_keyword", "published_at": "2026-08-29T23:49:17+00:00" }, { "id": "rss-b1b993df2ae0dede", "url": "https://www.theblock.co/news/defi/2026-08-29-cosmos-labs-says-it-wrongly-cleared-the-bug-behind-a-5-7-million-six-chain-hack-413061", "title": "Cosmos Labs says it wrongly cleared the bug behind a $5.7 million six-chain hack", "source": "theblock", "tokens": [ "ATOM" ], "age_text": "4h", "age_hours": 4.0, "matched_by": "systemic_keyword", "published_at": "2026-08-29T20:15:32+00:00" }, { "id": "rss-c9a9253dbc95eb4a", "url": "https://cointelegraph.com/news/the-sandbox-compensation-sand-bridge-exploit?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound", "title": "The Sandbox pledges 1:1 repayment after $700K bridge exploit", "source": "cointelegraph", "tokens": [], "age_text": "1d", "age_hours": 24.0, "matched_by": "systemic_keyword", "published_at": "2026-08-28T05:40:48+00:00" } ], "categories": [ "unknown" ], "confidence": 0.74, "risk_score": 10, "observed_at": "2026-08-30T00:38:23.537178+00:00", "unavailable": false, "corpus_count": 80, "evidence_ids": [ "rss-4707d2adaa759e85", "rss-b1b993df2ae0dede", "rss-c9a9253dbc95eb4a" ], "evidence_hash": "3d99b86ff873401728892c66be1596b578f8286a003b8aabb87d7b0057683deb", "evidence_count": 3, "freshness_hours": 0.82, "agent_routed_count": 0 }, "carry": { "score": -0.051553964352412614, "skill": "carry", "action": "no_trade", "symbol": "PUMPUSDT", "vetoes": [ "carry_quality_gate" ], "factors": { "funding_mean": 2.2944740740740738e-05, "risk_buffer_bps": 8.371384332126839, "basis_change_vol": 0.0003690664703620974, "funding_edge_bps": 9.63679111111111, "current_basis_pct": -0.01980590215883149, "annual_funding_pct": 2.5124491111111107, "funding_persistence": 0.7666666666666667, "round_trip_cost_bps": 8.0, "basis_convergence_bps": 0.0 }, "reasons": [ "annual funding 2.51%; persistence 76.7%", "carry net EV -6.7 bps over 14d" ], "eligible": false, "metadata": { "perp_price": 0.005048, "spot_price": 0.005049 }, "confidence": 0.895, "data_as_of": "2026-08-30T00:38:15.478043+00:00", "horizon_hours": 336.0, "expected_net_bps": -6.734593221015729 }, "directional": { "score": 0.7375983987124093, "skill": "directional", "action": "long", "symbol": "PUMPUSDT", "vetoes": [], "factors": { "adx": 32.65291674685933, "rsi": 58.593314634893595, "flow_z": null, "atr_pct": 0.006621572529116396, "flow_term": 0.0, "kyle_lambda": null, "momentum_1h": 0.004773269689737347, "trend_1h_atr": 1.3549509728359779, "trend_5m_atr": 1.795854761967622, "volume_ratio": 0.8327545486805431, "vwap_position": 0.0028521280609774663, "gross_edge_bps": 61.05076618042914, "taker_imbalance": null, "funding_edge_bps": -0.37500000000000006, "round_trip_cost_bps": 16.0 }, "reasons": [ "long structure score +0.738", "1h trend aligned; BTC choppy", "directional net EV +44.7 bps" ], "eligible": true, "metadata": { "atr": 3.345218441709603e-05, "frames": { "1h": { "vwap": null, "close": 0.005058, "ema_mid": 0.004801225491092959, "ema_fast": 0.004899653845077614, "ema_slow": 0.004751969381762503 }, "5m": { "vwap": 0.005037632028331118, "close": 0.005052, "ema_mid": 0.0050219173559808575, "ema_fast": 0.005036072042327492, "ema_slow": 0.004975996777643831 } }, "btc_regime": "choppy", "mark_price": 0.005048, "ema_periods": { "mid": 21, "fast": 9, "slow": 50 }, "candle_price": 0.005052, "funding_rate": 5e-05, "orderflow_enabled": false }, "confidence": 0.8662907862792625, "data_as_of": "2026-08-30T00:30:00+00:00", "horizon_hours": 6.0, "expected_net_bps": 44.67576618042914 }, "performance_carry": { "score": 0.0, "skill": "performance", "action": "allow", "symbol": "PUMPUSDT", "vetoes": [], "factors": { "wins": 0.0, "losses": 0.0, "samples": 0.0, "expectancy_usd": 0.0, "minimum_samples": 8.0, "sample_maturity": 0.0, "posterior_win_rate": 0.5, "win_rate_lower_bound": 0.3210613300064863 }, "reasons": [ "shrunk win rate 50.0%; lower bound 32.1%; n=0/8 minimum" ], "eligible": true, "metadata": {}, "confidence": 0.15, "data_as_of": "2026-08-30T00:38:15.478043+00:00", "horizon_hours": 24.0, "expected_net_bps": 0.0 }, "performance_directional": { "score": 0.08333333333333326, "skill": "performance", "action": "allow", "symbol": "PUMPUSDT", "vetoes": [], "factors": { "wins": 3.0, "losses": 1.0, "samples": 4.0, "expectancy_usd": 11.36766733435844, "minimum_samples": 8.0, "sample_maturity": 0.5, "posterior_win_rate": 0.5416666666666666, "win_rate_lower_bound": 0.3782371031776142 }, "reasons": [ "shrunk win rate 54.2%; lower bound 37.8%; n=4/8 minimum" ], "eligible": true, "metadata": {}, "confidence": 0.2833333333333333, "data_as_of": "2026-08-30T00:38:15.478043+00:00", "horizon_hours": 24.0, "expected_net_bps": 0.0 } }, "captured_at": "2026-08-30T00:38:15.478043+00:00", "chart_setup": { "notes": [], "swing": { "low": { "price": 0.005025, "formed_at": "2026-08-30T00:05:00+00:00", "distance_pct": 0.4878487562189039 }, "high": { "price": 0.005061, "formed_at": "2026-08-30T00:15:00+00:00", "distance_pct": -0.22694329183956763 } }, "atr_pct": 0.006621572529116396, "support": { "kind": "round_number", "price": 0.005, "distance_pct": 0.9902879999999954 }, "ema_vwap": { "1h": [ { "name": "EMA9", "value": 0.004899653845077614, "relation": "di_atas", "distance_pct": 3.058594742829467 }, { "name": "EMA21", "value": 0.004801225491092959, "relation": "di_atas", "distance_pct": 5.171365297623629 }, { "name": "EMA50", "value": 0.004751969381762503, "relation": "di_atas", "distance_pct": 6.261509583362212 } ], "5m": [ { "name": "EMA9", "value": 0.005036072042327492, "relation": "di_atas", "distance_pct": 0.2669214729163237 }, { "name": "EMA21", "value": 0.0050219173559808575, "relation": "di_atas", "distance_pct": 0.5495320225904482 }, { "name": "EMA50", "value": 0.004975996777643831, "relation": "di_atas", "distance_pct": 1.4774451359468084 }, { "name": "VWAP", "value": 0.005037632028331118, "relation": "di_atas", "distance_pct": 0.235872163787601 } ] }, "narrative": "Entry LONG PUMPUSDT di 0.00504951, di atas EMA9/EMA21/EMA50/VWAP pada frame 5m. Tren 1h naik (+1.35 ATR), searah posisi; rezim BTC choppy. Level 1h: support terdekat round_number 0.005 (+0.99%); resistance terdekat newyork_high 0.005126 (-1.49%). Volatilitas ATR 0.66% dari harga; pola candle 5m terakhir: marubozu.", "resistance": { "kind": "newyork_high", "price": 0.005126, "distance_pct": -1.4921108076472975 }, "candle_patterns": { "1h": [ "three_soldiers" ], "5m": [ "marubozu" ] } }, "horizon_hours": 6.0, "roi_scenarios": { "usd_tp": { "roa_pct": 3.934337509918658, "rom_pct": 38.50003603642714, "exit_price": 0.0051209373010223744, "r_multiple": 0.6416672672737854, "net_pnl_usd": 19.2500006756824 }, "tp_hard": { "roa_pct": 16.799014673543347, "rom_pct": 164.3892189415287, "exit_price": 0.005333, "r_multiple": 2.7398203156921443, "net_pnl_usd": 82.19453542082968 }, "fee_note": "net = gross(fill exit ber-slippage per sisi) − fee entry − fee exit taker; funding di luar skenario (belum diketahui saat entry); usd_tp ter-cap di ambang dolar → net = ambang − fee entry; usd_tp_mode=trail: sentuh ambang TIDAK menutup — trailing USD di-arm, lantai awal usd_trail_floor = ambang × (1 − giveback) dan naik mengikuti peak uPnL bersih (exit reason usd_trail_stop)", "stop_loss": { "roa_pct": -6.13216554482789, "rom_pct": -60.00720422740032, "exit_price": 0.004955, "r_multiple": -1.000120070456672, "net_pnl_usd": -30.00357508315898 }, "trail_floor": { "roa_pct": 2.468337390216586, "rom_pct": 24.154277113699845, "exit_price": 0.005096771599999999, "r_multiple": 0.40257128522833063, "net_pnl_usd": 12.077127676436634 }, "usd_trail_floor": { "roa_pct": 2.7080505368832597, "rom_pct": 26.500025225498998, "exit_price": 0.005100723056862538, "r_multiple": 0.4416670870916498, "net_pnl_usd": 13.2500006756824 } }, "snapshot_kind": "entry_snapshot", "thesis_version": 2, "breakeven_price": 0.00505608326539983, "expected_net_bps": 44.67576618042914, "funding_projection": { "note": "estimasi = rate saat entry × notional × settlement dalam max_hold; rate berubah tiap interval, interval riil simbol diinferensi dari history (fallback config)", "direction": "bayar", "est_usd_paid": 0.11249989864764001, "horizon_hours": 6.0, "interval_hours": 4.0, "est_settlements": 1.5, "interval_source": "history_inference", "funding_rate_at_entry": 5e-05 }, "utility_bps_per_day": 29.0149218532813 }, "funding_paid": 0.0, "last_mark_at": "2026-08-30T01:18:08.983599+00:00", "notional_usd": 1499.9986486352, "trail_peak_r": 0.5658989529637833, "working_type": "MARK_PRICE", "ambiguous_bar": false, "current_price": 0.00495696, "price_move_pct": -1.9011907362814884, "risk_modifiers": [ "risk_gates_bypassed", "stop_capped_30usd" ], "unrealized_pnl": -27.49402495520001, "equity_at_entry": 489.28188359926423, "exit_mark_price": 0.004955, "usd_trail_armed": false, "barrier_evidence": { "series": "mark", "trigger": "stop_loss", "last_low": 0.004945, "mark_low": 0.00495055, "last_high": 0.004994, "mark_high": 0.004994, "fill_price": 0.004955, "bar_open_ms": 1788052620000, "both_touched": false }, "trail_r_distance": 9.451439999999967e-05, "usd_peak_net_usd": null, "exit_shadow_state": { "ptp": { "at": null, "open": true, "r_mult": 0.8, "pnl_usd": null, "fraction": 0.75, "part_done": false, "realized_usd": 0.0 }, "tstop": { "at": null, "open": true, "min_r": 0.5, "minutes": 120.0, "pnl_usd": null }, "peak_r": 0.5658989529637833 }, "last_processed_ts": "2026-08-30T01:17:59.999000+00:00", "take_profit_price": 0.005333, "r_multiple_realized": -1.000120070456672, "utility_bps_per_day": 29.0149218532813, "liquidation_estimate": 0.003513409434134629, "return_on_margin_pct": -60.00720422740032, "usd_tp_threshold_usd": 20.0, "return_on_account_pct": -6.13216554482789, "usd_tp_trail_giveback": 0.3, "safe_leverage_suggested": 23, "symbol_loss_block_until": "2026-08-31T01:18:08.983599+00:00" }, { "qty": 10918.0, "side": "long", "event": "meta_close", "shadow": { "bars": 360, "last": { "at": "2026-08-30T07:24:59.999000+00:00", "price": 0.13977129, "net_usd": 24.132840937096773 }, "complete": true, "max_adverse": { "at": "2026-08-30T01:28:00+00:00", "price": 0.13689239, "net_usd": -7.27384851351776, "rom_pct": -14.54847727104737 }, "max_favorable": { "at": "2026-08-30T05:44:00+00:00", "price": 0.1513, "net_usd": 149.90261923304087, "rom_pct": 299.8213180724689 }, "vs_actual_usd": 154.04507167864938, "follow_minutes": 360, "checked_through": "2026-08-30T07:24:59.999000+00:00" }, "source": "live", "symbol": "BEATUSDT", "net_pnl": -4.14245244560851, "exit_fee": 0.748637849617489, "leverage": 30, "risk_usd": 29.998391081078847, "strategy": "directional", "trade_id": "8d6feffa5f714f8db948c80a58674169", "closed_at": "2026-08-30T01:25:52.477448+00:00", "entry_fee": 0.749959777026971, "gross_pnl": -2.6438548189640496, "llm_judge": { "model": "claude-opus-5", "score": 56.0, "reasons": [ "Lokasi entry sehat: harga ~0.01% di atas VWAP 5m dan hanya 0.6% di atas EMA cepat 5m, move 24h 4.5%, trend_1h_atr 0.49 — belum lari jauh", "Perbaikan sejak penilaian lalu: volume_ratio 0.64 -> 1.20 (+87%) dan OI 1h -1.04% -> -0.10%, ADX 40 dengan struktur 5m searah", "Bahan bakar belum terkonfirmasi: OI masih flat/negatif dan taker 4h melemah 0.541 -> 0.5201, tepat di ambang gerbang", "Funding di persentil 97.5 (long padat) plus BTC choppy dan EMA cepat 1h masih di bawah EMA mid 1h" ], "verdict": "approve", "key_risk": "Long sudah padat (funding p97.5) tanpa penambahan OI dan agresi taker menipis ke ambang, rawan shakeout di regime BTC choppy", "better_entry": 0.1368722941174935, "perubahan_material": { "alasan": [], "memburuk": false, "oi_1h_pct": { "dulu": -1.04, "kini": -0.1 }, "volume_ratio": { "dulu": 0.64, "kini": 1.2, "perubahan_pct": 87.5 }, "taker_ratio_4h": { "dulu": 0.541, "kini": 0.52 }, "harga_berubah_pct": 0.83 }, "better_entry_anchor": "ema_fast_5m" }, "opened_at": "2026-08-30T00:16:51.979570+00:00", "risk_tier": "fixed_margin", "tick_size": 0.0001, "confidence": 0.8102575051318186, "exit_price": 0.137138276171, "margin_usd": 49.997318468464734, "paper_only": true, "stop_price": 0.1348, "entry_price": 0.137380431769, "exit_policy": "trail", "exit_shadow": { "ptp_mode": "tanpa_partial", "ptp_pnl_usd": -4.1425, "real_net_usd": -4.1425, "tstop_pnl_usd": -4.1425, "tstop_triggered": false }, "sizing_mode": "fixed_margin", "trail_armed": false, "usd_tp_mode": "trail", "close_reason": "daily_loss_limit", "entry_thesis": { "setup": { "side": "long", "score": 0.5761948439467095, "strategy": "directional", "btc_regime": "choppy", "confidence": 0.8102575051318186, "score_note": "komponen skor ChartSkill yang sudah dihitung saat entry; mom_z tidak tersedia di jalur meta (null)", "gross_edge_bps": 58.807276294206005, "confidence_tier": "fixed_margin", "score_breakdown": { "adx": 40.83758524028211, "rsi": 56.64134179130935, "mom_z": null, "atr_pct": 0.008164915311133178, "momentum_1h": 0.00959409594095928, "trend_1h_atr": 0.4926834970561425, "trend_5m_atr": 1.2979081085388946, "volume_ratio": 0.7034514923949405, "vwap_position": -0.0046911653817373385 }, "funding_edge_bps": -0.37500000000000006, "round_trip_cost_bps": 16.0 }, "action": "long", "levels": { "stop": 0.1348, "entry": 0.137380431769, "take_profit": 0.1451, "mark_at_entry": 0.13733923 }, "reason": "selected long utility=25.21 bps/day (news x0.95)", "symbol": "BEATUSDT", "vetoes": [], "filters": [ { "name": "session_window", "pass": true, "value": { "hour_utc": 0, "window_utc": null } }, { "name": "btc_gate", "pass": true, "value": { "applies": true, "btc_return_7d": 0.01448021327244775 } }, { "name": "funding_extreme", "pass": true, "value": { "notes": null, "pctile": 97.5, "pctile_hi": 0.0003735279999999998, "pctile_lo": -0.000131986, "funding_rate": 5e-05 } }, { "name": "vol_target", "pass": true, "value": { "vol_scale": 1.0, "realized_vol_daily_pct": 1.1610275584807306 } }, { "name": "taker_flow_gate", "pass": true, "value": { "min_ratio": 0.52, "taker_ratio_4h": 0.5201435186736526 } }, { "name": "freshness_gate", "pass": true, "value": { "atr_1h": 0.00463571428571428, "dist_low_atr": -1.8983050847457654, "made_new_low": false, "dist_high_atr": -5.587057010785832, "made_new_high": false, "max_atr_above": 1.0 } }, { "name": "exhaustion", "pass": true, "value": { "notes": null, "enabled": true, "max_pct": 40.0, "move_24h_pct": 4.521072796934855 } }, { "name": "overextended", "pass": true, "value": { "price": 0.1368, "enabled": true, "max_pct": 40.0, "ema50_1h": 0.13320449401669718, "ema_source": "chart_skill_1h", "dist_ema50_pct": 2.6992377470779205 } }, { "name": "atr_band", "pass": true, "value": { "enabled": true, "dead_pct": 1.2, "atr_pct_1h": 4.062805419506253, "extreme_pct": 15.0 } }, { "name": "oi_crowd", "pass": true, "value": { "note": null, "enabled": true, "max_pct": 8.0, "oi_change_1h_pct": 0.19566366218288778 } }, { "name": "crowd_positioning", "pass": true, "value": { "note": null, "side": "long", "enabled": false, "ls_ratio": null, "threshold": 0.67, "delta_block": 0.3, "ls_delta_1h": null } }, { "name": "stop_truncated", "pass": true, "value": { "atr_pct": 0.008164915311133178, "cap_pct": 0.02, "enabled": true, "ratio_3atr_vs_cap": 1.2247372966699768 } }, { "name": "plateau", "pass": true, "value": { "count": 0, "enabled": false, "conditions": null, "min_conditions": null } }, { "name": "universe", "pass": true, "value": { "rank": 20, "size": 35, "quote_volume_24h": 118187058.0268 } }, { "name": "regime", "pass": true, "value": { "note": null, "btc_regime": "choppy", "choppy_no_trade": false } }, { "name": "symbol_recent_loss", "pass": true, "value": { "enabled": true, "block_hours": 24.0, "block_until": null, "manual_exempt": null } }, { "name": "news", "pass": true, "value": { "reason": "No evidence carries a transmission channel to BEAT. rss-4707d2adaa759e85 is a neobank card-program breach hitting that neobank's own token (SOL-tagged ecosystem), rss-b1b993df2ae0dede is a Cosmos Labs disclosure failure affecting IBC/Cosmos", "binding": false, "decision": "allow", "risk_score": 10, "unavailable": false } }, { "name": "portfolio_heat", "pass": true, "value": { "cap_usd": 6.0, "risk_usd": 29.998391081078847, "open_risk_after_usd": 76.23724636625687, "open_risk_before_usd": 46.23885528517802 } }, { "name": "correlated_side", "pass": true, "value": { "cap": 3, "applies": true, "same_side_alt_count": 2 } } ], "expected": { "horizon_hours": 6.0, "expected_net_bps": 42.432276294206005, "utility_bps_per_day": 25.20648171039208 }, "strategy": "directional", "exit_plan": { "tp_hard_r": 3.0, "stop_price": 0.1348, "exit_policy": "trail", "trail_arm_r": 1.0, "usd_tp_mode": "trail", "tp_hard_price": 0.1451, "usd_tp_r_mult": 2.0, "usd_tp_abs_usd": 20.0, "trail_arm_price": 0.139960863538, "daily_guardrails": { "loss_limit_usd": 100.0, "profit_target_usd": 100.0, "profit_floor_fraction": 0.5, "protect_profit_at_usd": 0.0 }, "trail_distance_r": 0.5, "time_stop_minutes": 360.0, "usd_trail_floor_usd": 14.0, "trail_distance_price": 0.0012902158844999984, "usd_tp_threshold_usd": 20.0, "usd_tp_trail_giveback": 0.3 }, "risk_plan": { "qty": 10918.0, "leverage": 30, "risk_usd": 29.998391081078847, "risk_tier": "fixed_margin", "margin_usd": 49.997318468464734, "notional_usd": 1499.919554053942, "entry_fee_usd": 0.749959777026971, "stop_distance": { "pct": 1.878311005266671, "price": 0.0025804317689999967 }, "risk_modifiers": [ "risk_gates_bypassed", "stop_capped_30usd" ], "leverage_reason": "safe_leverage: min(cap config 30x, floor(1/(stop_pct×2+0.005))) — estimasi likuidasi >= 2× jarak stop", "est_exit_fee_usd": 0.749959777026971, "entry_slippage_usd": 0.44984091394192666, "liquidation_estimate": 0.09577624996235445 }, "confidence": 0.8102575051318186, "data_as_of": "2026-08-30T00:10:00+00:00", "assessments": { "news": { "model": "claude-opus-5", "usage": { "metering": { "unit": "credit", "usage": 0.29191449386401325, "unitPlural": "credits" }, "context_usage_pct": 0.906999945640564 }, "reason": "No evidence carries a transmission channel to BEAT. rss-4707d2adaa759e85 is a neobank card-program breach hitting that neobank's own token (SOL-tagged ecosystem), rss-b1b993df2ae0dede is a Cosmos Labs disclosure failure affecting IBC/Cosmos-chain contracts, and rss-c9a9253dbc95eb4a is The Sandbox's own bridge exploit with 1:1 repayment pledged. None touch BEAT's chain, foundation, bridge, custodian, or listing venue, so all three were mis-routed and score low. No hack, depeg, delisting, halt, or withdrawal freeze is implicated for the symbol. Caveat: coverage is headline-level RSS only, one feed failed, and small-cap token tagging is incomplete, so absence of BEAT-specific news is weak rather than strong confirmation.", "symbol": "BEATUSDT", "decision": "allow", "evidence": [ { "id": "rss-4707d2adaa759e85", "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/web3/2026/08/29/a-usd1-1-million-crypto-card-hack-crashed-a-neobank-s-token-49", "title": "A $1.1 million crypto card hack crashed a neobank's token 49%", "source": "coindesk", "tokens": [ "SOL" ], "age_text": "27min", "age_hours": 0.45, "matched_by": "systemic_keyword", "published_at": "2026-08-29T23:49:17+00:00" }, { "id": "rss-b1b993df2ae0dede", "url": "https://www.theblock.co/news/defi/2026-08-29-cosmos-labs-says-it-wrongly-cleared-the-bug-behind-a-5-7-million-six-chain-hack-413061", "title": "Cosmos Labs says it wrongly cleared the bug behind a $5.7 million six-chain hack", "source": "theblock", "tokens": [ "ATOM" ], "age_text": "4h", "age_hours": 4.0, "matched_by": "systemic_keyword", "published_at": "2026-08-29T20:15:32+00:00" }, { "id": "rss-c9a9253dbc95eb4a", "url": "https://cointelegraph.com/news/the-sandbox-compensation-sand-bridge-exploit?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound", "title": "The Sandbox pledges 1:1 repayment after $700K bridge exploit", "source": "cointelegraph", "tokens": [], "age_text": "1d", "age_hours": 24.0, "matched_by": "systemic_keyword", "published_at": "2026-08-28T05:40:48+00:00" } ], "categories": [ "unknown" ], "confidence": 0.72, "risk_score": 10, "observed_at": "2026-08-30T00:16:59.869363+00:00", "unavailable": false, "corpus_count": 80, "evidence_ids": [ "rss-4707d2adaa759e85", "rss-b1b993df2ae0dede", "rss-c9a9253dbc95eb4a" ], "evidence_hash": "77536fd72d89f07db9626c1365846ad09143536bf2ee78bfca2aa45df741bdcd", "evidence_count": 3, "freshness_hours": null, "agent_routed_count": 0 }, "carry": { "score": 0, "skill": "carry", "action": "no_trade", "symbol": "BEATUSDT", "vetoes": [ "carry_data_quality" ], "factors": {}, "reasons": [ "spot_source_unavailable" ], "eligible": false, "metadata": {}, "confidence": 0, "data_as_of": "2026-08-30T00:16:51.979570+00:00", "horizon_hours": 24, "expected_net_bps": 0 }, "directional": { "score": 0.5761948439467095, "skill": "directional", "action": "long", "symbol": "BEATUSDT", "vetoes": [], "factors": { "adx": 40.83758524028211, "rsi": 56.64134179130935, "flow_z": null, "atr_pct": 0.008164915311133178, "flow_term": 0.0, "kyle_lambda": null, "momentum_1h": 0.00959409594095928, "trend_1h_atr": 0.4926834970561425, "trend_5m_atr": 1.2979081085388946, "volume_ratio": 0.7034514923949405, "vwap_position": -0.0046911653817373385, "gross_edge_bps": 58.807276294206005, "taker_imbalance": null, "funding_edge_bps": -0.37500000000000006, "round_trip_cost_bps": 16.0 }, "reasons": [ "long structure score +0.576", "1h trend aligned; BTC choppy", "directional net EV +42.4 bps" ], "eligible": true, "metadata": { "atr": 0.0011169604145630189, "frames": { "1h": { "vwap": null, "close": 0.1364, "ema_mid": 0.13628388666180263, "ema_fast": 0.1359347816928647, "ema_slow": 0.13320449401669718 }, "5m": { "vwap": 0.137444776175897, "close": 0.1368, "ema_mid": 0.13619828050450486, "ema_fast": 0.1368578352939948, "ema_slow": 0.1354081233150165 } }, "btc_regime": "choppy", "mark_price": 0.13733923, "ema_periods": { "mid": 21, "fast": 9, "slow": 50 }, "candle_price": 0.1368, "funding_rate": 5e-05, "orderflow_enabled": false }, "confidence": 0.8102575051318186, "data_as_of": "2026-08-30T00:10:00+00:00", "horizon_hours": 6.0, "expected_net_bps": 42.432276294206005 }, "performance_carry": { "score": 0.0, "skill": "performance", "action": "allow", "symbol": "BEATUSDT", "vetoes": [], "factors": { "wins": 0.0, "losses": 0.0, "samples": 0.0, "expectancy_usd": 0.0, "minimum_samples": 8.0, "sample_maturity": 0.0, "posterior_win_rate": 0.5, "win_rate_lower_bound": 0.3210613300064863 }, "reasons": [ "shrunk win rate 50.0%; lower bound 32.1%; n=0/8 minimum" ], "eligible": true, "metadata": {}, "confidence": 0.15, "data_as_of": "2026-08-30T00:16:51.979570+00:00", "horizon_hours": 24.0, "expected_net_bps": 0.0 }, "performance_directional": { "score": 0.0, "skill": "performance", "action": "allow", "symbol": "BEATUSDT", "vetoes": [], "factors": { "wins": 0.0, "losses": 0.0, "samples": 0.0, "expectancy_usd": 0.0, "minimum_samples": 8.0, "sample_maturity": 0.0, "posterior_win_rate": 0.5, "win_rate_lower_bound": 0.3210613300064863 }, "reasons": [ "shrunk win rate 50.0%; lower bound 32.1%; n=0/8 minimum" ], "eligible": true, "metadata": {}, "confidence": 0.15, "data_as_of": "2026-08-30T00:16:51.979570+00:00", "horizon_hours": 24.0, "expected_net_bps": 0.0 } }, "captured_at": "2026-08-30T00:16:51.979570+00:00", "chart_setup": { "notes": [], "swing": { "low": { "price": 0.1359, "formed_at": "2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:00", "distance_pct": 1.0893537667402553 }, "high": { "price": 0.1384, "formed_at": "2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:00", "distance_pct": -0.7366822478323667 } }, "atr_pct": 0.008164915311133178, "support": { "kind": "swing_low", "price": 0.1356, "distance_pct": 1.3130027794985262 }, "ema_vwap": { "1h": [ { "name": "EMA9", "value": 0.1359347816928647, "relation": "di_atas", "distance_pct": 1.0634879889693427 }, { "name": "EMA21", "value": 0.13628388666180263, "relation": "di_atas", "distance_pct": 0.8046036358784767 }, { "name": "EMA50", "value": 0.13320449401669718, "relation": "di_atas", "distance_pct": 3.1349826318767953 } ], "5m": [ { "name": "EMA9", "value": 0.1368578352939948, "relation": "di_atas", "distance_pct": 0.38185352989294225 }, { "name": "EMA21", "value": 0.13619828050450486, "relation": "di_atas", "distance_pct": 0.8679634281110031 }, { "name": "EMA50", "value": 0.1354081233150165, "relation": "di_atas", "distance_pct": 1.4565658290640902 }, { "name": "VWAP", "value": 0.137444776175897, "relation": "di_bawah", "distance_pct": -0.046814734388060206 } ] }, "narrative": "Entry LONG BEATUSDT di 0.13738, di atas EMA9/EMA21/EMA50 dan di bawah VWAP pada frame 5m. Tren 1h naik (+0.49 ATR), searah posisi; rezim BTC choppy. Level 1h: support terdekat swing_low 0.1356 (+1.31%); resistance terdekat fvg_bull_top 0.1376 (-0.16%). Volatilitas ATR 0.82% dari harga; tanpa pola candle menonjol di bar 5m terakhir.", "resistance": { "kind": "fvg_bull_top", "price": 0.1376, "distance_pct": -0.1595699353197676 }, "candle_patterns": { "1h": [ "inside_bar" ], "5m": [] } }, "horizon_hours": 6.0, "roi_scenarios": { "usd_tp": { "roa_pct": 3.8879277346407703, "rom_pct": 38.502145340284166, "exit_price": 0.13932370716902398, "r_multiple": 0.6417024223380693, "net_pnl_usd": 19.25004022297303 }, "tp_hard": { "roa_pct": 16.615082494724064, "rom_pct": 164.53914905694216, "exit_price": 0.1451, "r_multiple": 2.7423191509490352, "net_pnl_usd": 82.26516235930126 }, "fee_note": "net = gross(fill exit ber-slippage per sisi) − fee entry − fee exit taker; funding di luar skenario (belum diketahui saat entry); usd_tp ter-cap di ambang dolar → net = ambang − fee entry; usd_tp_mode=trail: sentuh ambang TIDAK menutup — trailing USD di-arm, lantai awal usd_trail_floor = ambang × (1 − giveback) dan naik mengikuti peak uPnL bersih (exit reason usd_trail_stop)", "stop_loss": { "roa_pct": -6.079351091792645, "rom_pct": -60.2038091462733, "exit_price": 0.1348, "r_multiple": -1.0033968191045548, "net_pnl_usd": -30.100290189008962 }, "trail_floor": { "roa_pct": 2.4490135789998297, "rom_pct": 24.252579573136842, "exit_price": 0.1386706476535, "r_multiple": 0.4042096595522806, "net_pnl_usd": 12.125639445999052 }, "usd_trail_floor": { "roa_pct": 2.6761086351666057, "rom_pct": 26.501501738198918, "exit_price": 0.138773716058781, "r_multiple": 0.4416916956366485, "net_pnl_usd": 13.250040222973029 } }, "snapshot_kind": "entry_snapshot", "thesis_version": 2, "breakeven_price": 0.13755914866994814, "expected_net_bps": 42.432276294206005, "funding_projection": { "note": "estimasi = rate saat entry × notional × settlement dalam max_hold; rate berubah tiap interval, interval riil simbol diinferensi dari history (fallback config)", "direction": "bayar", "est_usd_paid": 0.05624698327702282, "horizon_hours": 6.0, "interval_hours": 8.0, "est_settlements": 0.75, "interval_source": "config_fallback", "funding_rate_at_entry": 5e-05 }, "utility_bps_per_day": 25.20648171039208 }, "funding_paid": 0.0, "last_mark_at": "2026-08-30T01:25:52.477448+00:00", "notional_usd": 1499.919554053942, "trail_peak_r": 0.6663877927942236, "working_type": "MARK_PRICE", "ambiguous_bar": false, "current_price": 0.13717943, "price_move_pct": -0.17626644121134794, "risk_modifiers": [ "risk_gates_bypassed", "stop_capped_30usd" ], "unrealized_pnl": -2.194537313942096, "equity_at_entry": 495.1234060103141, "exit_mark_price": 0.13717943, "usd_trail_armed": false, "trail_r_distance": 0.0025804317689999967, "usd_peak_net_usd": null, "exit_shadow_state": { "ptp": { "at": null, "open": true, "r_mult": 0.8, "pnl_usd": null, "fraction": 0.75, "part_done": false, "realized_usd": 0.0 }, "tstop": { "at": null, "open": true, "min_r": 0.5, "minutes": 120.0, "pnl_usd": null }, "peak_r": 0.6663877927942236 }, "last_processed_ts": "2026-08-30T01:24:59.999000+00:00", "take_profit_price": 0.1451, "r_multiple_realized": -0.13808915399537264, "utility_bps_per_day": 25.20648171039208, "liquidation_estimate": 0.0971147973613914, "return_on_margin_pct": -8.28534923972236, "usd_tp_threshold_usd": 20.0, "return_on_account_pct": -0.8366504987086425, "usd_tp_trail_giveback": 0.3, "safe_leverage_suggested": 23, "symbol_loss_block_until": "2026-08-31T01:25:52.477448+00:00" }, { "qty": 0.1043887201975507, "side": "delta_neutral", "event": "meta_close", "source": "live", "symbol": "ZECUSDT", "net_pnl": 0.23445192489336425, "exit_fee": 0.035886754229513984, "leverage": 2, "risk_usd": 2.0, "strategy": "carry", "trade_id": "1c1e363db27e434c8f2c02ac7a360692", "closed_at": "2026-08-30T21:15:50.453546+00:00", "entry_fee": 0.03579974993264457, "gross_pnl": 0.3061384290555228, "opened_at": "2026-08-30T21:10:39.543551+00:00", "perp_exit": 859.26, "spot_exit": 859.64, "confidence": 0.95, "margin_usd": 134.182444568572, "paper_only": true, "perp_entry": 858.64267729, "spot_entry": 856.09, "exit_shadow": null, "close_reason": "carry_veto", "entry_thesis": { "action": "carry", "levels": { "perp_entry": 858.64267729, "spot_entry": 856.09 }, "reason": "selected carry utility=1.37 bps/day (news x0.96)", "symbol": "ZECUSDT", "vetoes": [], "strategy": "carry", "confidence": 0.95, "data_as_of": "2026-08-30T21:10:39.543551+00:00", "assessments": { "news": { "model": "claude-opus-5", "usage": { "metering": { "unit": "credit", "usage": 0.2848082027197346, "unitPlural": "credits" }, "context_usage_pct": 0.9203000068664551 }, "reason": "No material transmission channel to ZEC. Zcash runs its own independent PoW chain with no dependency on Cronos, Tectonic, Cosmos/IBC, or the affected neobank card issuer; the only tangential link is Crypto.com as one of many ZEC listing venues, and the halt is on the Cronos chain, not exchange spot markets or withdrawals. The AI cyber-defense item is off-topic entirely. All four routed items appear irrelevant to ZECUSDT and are scored low.", "symbol": "ZECUSDT", "decision": "allow", "evidence": [ { "id": "rss-f869426298d24102", "url": "https://www.theblock.co/news/defi/2026-08-30-crypto-com-linked-cronos-network-halts-after-tectonic-exploit-estimated-at-75-million-413069", "title": "Crypto.com-linked Cronos network halts after Tectonic exploit estimated at $75 million", "source": "theblock", "tokens": [], "age_text": "2h", "age_hours": 2.0, "matched_by": "systemic_keyword", "published_at": "2026-08-30T18:40:08+00:00" }, { "id": "rss-28925d02b5745bca", "url": "https://decrypt.co/376863/ai-models-hacked-companies-ai-labs-cyber-defenses", "title": "After Their AI Models Hacked Real Companies, AI Labs Call for Stronger Cyber Defenses", "source": "decrypt", "tokens": [], "age_text": "7h", "age_hours": 7.0, "matched_by": "systemic_keyword", "published_at": "2026-08-30T13:31:04+00:00" }, { "id": "rss-4707d2adaa759e85", "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/web3/2026/08/29/a-usd1-1-million-crypto-card-hack-crashed-a-neobank-s-token-49", "title": "A $1.1 million crypto card hack crashed a neobank's token 49%", "source": "coindesk", "tokens": [ "SOL" ], "age_text": "21h", "age_hours": 21.0, "matched_by": "systemic_keyword", "published_at": "2026-08-29T23:49:17+00:00" }, { "id": "rss-b1b993df2ae0dede", "url": "https://www.theblock.co/news/defi/2026-08-29-cosmos-labs-says-it-wrongly-cleared-the-bug-behind-a-5-7-million-six-chain-hack-413061", "title": "Cosmos Labs says it wrongly cleared the bug behind a $5.7 million six-chain hack", "source": "theblock", "tokens": [ "ATOM" ], "age_text": "1d", "age_hours": 24.0, "matched_by": "systemic_keyword", "published_at": "2026-08-29T20:15:32+00:00" } ], "categories": [ "unknown" ], "confidence": 0.72, "risk_score": 8, "observed_at": "2026-08-30T21:10:47.025596+00:00", "unavailable": false, "corpus_count": 80, "evidence_ids": [ "rss-f869426298d24102", "rss-28925d02b5745bca", "rss-4707d2adaa759e85", "rss-b1b993df2ae0dede" ], "evidence_hash": "32661df9c27df3c7680f3a4abd6fb1e4b1c7589f73e22df9d14703474bf192af", "evidence_count": 4, "freshness_hours": 2.0, "agent_routed_count": 0 }, "carry": { "score": 0.23976266876012292, "skill": "carry", "action": "carry", "symbol": "ZECUSDT", "vetoes": [], "factors": { "funding_mean": 6.536866666666667e-05, "risk_buffer_bps": 7.182457524465696, "basis_change_vol": 0.0003166506448529973, "funding_edge_bps": 27.454840000000004, "current_basis_pct": 0.2981786132299158, "annual_funding_pct": 7.157869, "funding_persistence": 0.9037037037037037, "round_trip_cost_bps": 8.0, "basis_convergence_bps": 14.90893066149579 }, "reasons": [ "annual funding 7.16%; persistence 90.4%", "carry net EV +27.2 bps over 14d" ], "eligible": true, "metadata": { "perp_price": 858.64267729, "spot_price": 856.09 }, "confidence": 0.95, "data_as_of": "2026-08-30T21:10:39.543551+00:00", "horizon_hours": 336.0, "expected_net_bps": 27.181313137030095 }, "directional": { "score": -0.15384842295392254, "skill": "directional", "action": "no_trade", "symbol": "ZECUSDT", "vetoes": [ "chart_quality_gate", "non_positive_net_ev" ], "factors": { "adx": 26.857572663011275, "rsi": 43.09109029095083, "flow_z": null, "atr_pct": 0.005534820303718811, "flow_term": 0.0, "kyle_lambda": null, "momentum_1h": -0.00873458432633789, "trend_1h_atr": 2.151730860114971, "trend_5m_atr": -1.3901222099733368, "volume_ratio": 1.2457358179112024, "vwap_position": 0.002397134573453718, "gross_edge_bps": 10.644042188256119, "taker_imbalance": null, "funding_edge_bps": 0.1467, "round_trip_cost_bps": 16.0 }, "reasons": [ "short structure score -0.154", "1h trend opposed; BTC trending_up", "directional net EV -5.2 bps" ], "eligible": false, "metadata": { "atr": 4.742400080835389, "frames": { "1h": { "vwap": null, "close": 853.02, "ema_mid": 849.835632377407, "ema_fast": 859.9794207477792, "ema_slow": 833.2560763631259 }, "5m": { "vwap": 854.7809749721638, "close": 856.83, "ema_mid": 859.942648001515, "ema_fast": 856.2688754371625, "ema_slow": 862.8613911181111 } }, "btc_regime": "trending_up", "mark_price": 858.64267729, "ema_periods": { "mid": 21, "fast": 9, "slow": 50 }, "candle_price": 856.83, "funding_rate": 1.956e-05, "orderflow_enabled": false }, "confidence": 0.4420469232767025, "data_as_of": "2026-08-30T21:05:00+00:00", "horizon_hours": 6.0, "expected_net_bps": -5.209257811743882 }, "performance_carry": { "score": 0.0, "skill": "performance", "action": "allow", "symbol": "ZECUSDT", "vetoes": [], "factors": { "wins": 0.0, "losses": 0.0, "samples": 0.0, "expectancy_usd": 0.0, "minimum_samples": 8.0, "sample_maturity": 0.0, "posterior_win_rate": 0.5, "win_rate_lower_bound": 0.3210613300064863 }, "reasons": [ "shrunk win rate 50.0%; lower bound 32.1%; n=0/8 minimum" ], "eligible": true, "metadata": {}, "confidence": 0.15, "data_as_of": "2026-08-30T21:10:39.543551+00:00", "horizon_hours": 24.0, "expected_net_bps": 0.0 }, "performance_directional": { "score": 0.0, "skill": "performance", "action": "allow", "symbol": "ZECUSDT", "vetoes": [], "factors": { "wins": 1.0, "losses": 1.0, "samples": 2.0, "expectancy_usd": 14.47026815739985, "minimum_samples": 8.0, "sample_maturity": 0.25, "posterior_win_rate": 0.5, "win_rate_lower_bound": 0.3290181804731987 }, "reasons": [ "shrunk win rate 50.0%; lower bound 32.9%; n=2/8 minimum" ], "eligible": true, "metadata": {}, "confidence": 0.22272727272727272, "data_as_of": "2026-08-30T21:10:39.543551+00:00", "horizon_hours": 24.0, "expected_net_bps": 0.0 } }, "captured_at": "2026-08-30T21:10:39.543551+00:00", "horizon_hours": 336.0, "snapshot_kind": "entry_snapshot", "expected_net_bps": 27.181313137030095, "utility_bps_per_day": 1.367693782250145 }, "funding_paid": 0.0, "last_mark_at": "2026-08-30T21:15:50.453546+00:00", "notional_usd": 178.99874966322284, "perp_current": 859.26, "spot_current": 859.64, "working_type": "MARK_PRICE", "ambiguous_bar": false, "price_move_pct": null, "unrealized_pnl": 0.3061384290555228, "equity_at_entry": 446.83069736960584, "last_funding_at": "2026-08-30T21:10:39.543551+00:00", "funding_received": 0.0, "r_multiple_realized": 0.11722596244668212, "utility_bps_per_day": 1.367693782250145, "return_on_margin_pct": 0.17472622864129664, "return_on_account_pct": 0.05246996821694016 }, { "qty": 4375.3, "side": "short", "event": "meta_close", "shadow": { "bars": 153, "last": { "at": "2026-08-31T07:52:59.999000+00:00", "price": 0.34806825, "net_usd": -24.891782115747898 }, "complete": false, "max_adverse": { "at": "2026-08-31T07:25:00+00:00", "price": 0.3496, "net_usd": -31.59901038864774, "rom_pct": -63.19915142585041 }, "max_favorable": { "at": "2026-08-31T06:35:00+00:00", "price": 0.3463, "net_usd": -17.148967430874222, "rom_pct": -34.29854847132057 }, "vs_actual_usd": 3.9409208066654173, "follow_minutes": 360, "checked_through": "2026-08-31T07:52:59.999000+00:00" }, "source": "live", "symbol": "ONDOUSDT", "net_pnl": -21.08988823753964, "exit_fee": 0.759779945624, "leverage": 30, "risk_usd": 21.0698935507957, "strategy": "directional", "trade_id": "a7de9f269b944b35a9f7bf9426255d4b", "closed_at": "2026-08-31T05:20:03.980151+00:00", "entry_fee": 0.749986582313258, "gross_pnl": -19.58672662148407, "llm_judge": { "model": "claude-opus-5", "score": 66.0, "reasons": [ "Struktur bearish selaras: harga di bawah semua EMA 5m/1h, trend_1h_atr -1.16, BTC trending_down", "Bahan bakar membaik vs penilaian lalu: volume_ratio 0.38→1.58, OI dari -2.55% ke flat, taker 4h 0.441 (agresor jual dominan)", "Tidak ada tanda kapitulasi/chasing parah: RSI 41.9, move_24h -2.3%, ATR 1h 1.47%, berita bersih (risk 14)", "Cacat: OI hanya +0.05% jadi belum ada penambahan posisi paus, dan harga sudah 0.5% di bawah VWAP 5m" ], "verdict": "approve", "key_risk": "OI flat + momentum_1h ~0 membuka peluang short squeeze balik ke VWAP/EMA fast 5m sebelum leg turun lanjut", "better_entry": 0.34426900894000523, "perubahan_material": { "alasan": [], "memburuk": false, "oi_1h_pct": { "dulu": -2.55, "kini": 0.05 }, "volume_ratio": { "dulu": 0.38, "kini": 1.58, "perubahan_pct": 320.0 }, "taker_ratio_4h": { "dulu": 0.427, "kini": 0.441 }, "harga_berubah_pct": -1.0 }, "better_entry_anchor": "vwap_5m" }, "opened_at": "2026-08-31T03:02:23.896183+00:00", "risk_tier": "fixed_margin", "tick_size": 0.0001, "confidence": 0.7629837463081635, "exit_price": 0.34730416, "margin_usd": 49.99910548755053, "paper_only": true, "stop_price": 0.3472, "entry_price": 0.342827500886, "exit_policy": "trail", "exit_shadow": { "ptp_mode": "tanpa_partial", "tstop_at": "2026-08-31T05:02:59.999000+00:00", "ptp_pnl_usd": -21.0899, "real_net_usd": -21.0899, "tstop_pnl_usd": -11.901, "tstop_triggered": true }, "sizing_mode": "fixed_margin", "trail_armed": false, "usd_tp_mode": "trail", "close_reason": "stop_loss", "entry_thesis": { "setup": { "side": "short", "score": -0.6066074063854284, "strategy": "directional", "btc_regime": "trending_down", "confidence": 0.7629837463081635, "score_note": "komponen skor ChartSkill yang sudah dihitung saat entry; mom_z tidak tersedia di jalur meta (null)", "gross_edge_bps": 32.24885628784096, "confidence_tier": "fixed_margin", "score_breakdown": { "adx": 24.837418199044464, "rsi": 41.930953850153564, "mom_z": null, "atr_pct": 0.0042530118753414045, "momentum_1h": 0.0011692487576733246, "trend_1h_atr": -1.162551151807892, "trend_5m_atr": -1.9680809145137605, "volume_ratio": 1.5811536407013917, "vwap_position": -0.005138449567249549 }, "funding_edge_bps": -0.0852, "round_trip_cost_bps": 16.0 }, "action": "short", "levels": { "stop": 0.3472, "entry": 0.342827500886, "take_profit": 0.3297, "mark_at_entry": 0.34293038 }, "reason": "selected short utility=8.84 bps/day (news x0.92)", "symbol": "ONDOUSDT", "vetoes": [], "filters": [ { "name": "session_window", "pass": true, "value": { "hour_utc": 3, "window_utc": null } }, { "name": "btc_gate", "pass": true, "value": { "applies": true, "btc_return_7d": -0.00028013844261098875 } }, { "name": "funding_extreme", "pass": true, "value": { "notes": null, "pctile": 97.5, "pctile_hi": 0.00040096624999999997, "pctile_lo": -0.0010736375, "funding_rate": -1.136e-05 } }, { "name": "vol_target", "pass": true, "value": { "vol_scale": 1.0, "realized_vol_daily_pct": 1.7225210676759268 } }, { "name": "taker_flow_gate", "pass": true, "value": { "min_ratio": 0.52, "taker_ratio_4h": 0.44092715341080146 } }, { "name": "freshness_gate", "pass": true, "value": { "atr_1h": 0.00592142857142857, "dist_low_atr": -0.9288299155609179, "made_new_low": false, "dist_high_atr": -3.5464414957780406, "made_new_high": false, "max_atr_above": 1.0 } }, { "name": "exhaustion", "pass": true, "value": { "notes": null, "enabled": true, "max_pct": 40.0, "move_24h_pct": -2.338180781294552 } }, { "name": "overextended", "pass": true, "value": { "price": 0.3425, "enabled": true, "max_pct": 40.0, "ema50_1h": 0.35477956924652904, "ema_source": "chart_skill_1h", "dist_ema50_pct": -3.4611827486594082 } }, { "name": "atr_band", "pass": true, "value": { "enabled": true, "dead_pct": 1.2, "atr_pct_1h": 1.468699637478327, "extreme_pct": 15.0 } }, { "name": "oi_crowd", "pass": true, "value": { "note": null, "enabled": true, "max_pct": 8.0, "oi_change_1h_pct": 0.05055315015050077 } }, { "name": "crowd_positioning", "pass": true, "value": { "note": null, "side": "short", "enabled": false, "ls_ratio": null, "threshold": 1.5, "delta_block": 0.3, "ls_delta_1h": null } }, { "name": "stop_truncated", "pass": true, "value": { "atr_pct": 0.0042530118753414045, "cap_pct": 0.02, "enabled": true, "ratio_3atr_vs_cap": 0.6379517813012107 } }, { "name": "plateau", "pass": true, "value": { "count": 0, "enabled": false, "conditions": null, "min_conditions": null } }, { "name": "universe", "pass": true, "value": { "rank": 44, "size": 46, "quote_volume_24h": 55638853.75069 } }, { "name": "regime", "pass": true, "value": { "note": null, "btc_regime": "trending_down", "choppy_no_trade": false } }, { "name": "symbol_recent_loss", "pass": true, "value": { "enabled": true, "block_hours": 24.0, "block_until": null, "manual_exempt": null } }, { "name": "news", "pass": true, "value": { "reason": "No evidence touches ONDO's transmission channels. The Tectonic exploit and Cronos halt affect Crypto.com's chain, where Ondo's tokenized RWA products (OUSG/USDY) are not issued or bridged; Ondo deployments and its Ethereum-centric issuance,", "binding": false, "decision": "allow", "risk_score": 14, "unavailable": false } }, { "name": "portfolio_heat", "pass": true, "value": { "cap_usd": 6.0, "risk_usd": 21.0698935507957, "open_risk_after_usd": 21.0698935507957, "open_risk_before_usd": 0.0 } }, { "name": "correlated_side", "pass": true, "value": { "cap": 3, "applies": true, "same_side_alt_count": 0 } } ], "expected": { "horizon_hours": 6.0, "expected_net_bps": 16.163656287840958, "utility_bps_per_day": 8.835203001312326 }, "strategy": "directional", "exit_plan": { "tp_hard_r": 3.0, "stop_price": 0.3472, "exit_policy": "trail", "trail_arm_r": 1.0, "usd_tp_mode": "trail", "tp_hard_price": 0.3297, "usd_tp_r_mult": 2.0, "usd_tp_abs_usd": 20.0, "trail_arm_price": 0.338455001772, "daily_guardrails": { "loss_limit_usd": 100.0, "profit_target_usd": 100.0, "profit_floor_fraction": 0.5, "protect_profit_at_usd": 0.0 }, "trail_distance_r": 0.5, "time_stop_minutes": 360.0, "usd_trail_floor_usd": 14.0, "trail_distance_price": 0.002186249557000003, "usd_tp_threshold_usd": 20.0, "usd_tp_trail_giveback": 0.3 }, "risk_plan": { "qty": 4375.3, "leverage": 30, "risk_usd": 21.0698935507957, "risk_tier": "fixed_margin", "margin_usd": 49.99910548755053, "notional_usd": 1499.9731646265159, "entry_fee_usd": 0.749986582313258, "stop_distance": { "pct": 1.2754225091918712, "price": 0.004372499114000006 }, "risk_modifiers": [ "risk_gates_bypassed" ], "leverage_reason": "safe_leverage: min(cap config 30x, floor(1/(stop_pct×2+0.005))) — estimasi likuidasi >= 2× jarak stop", "est_exit_fee_usd": 0.749986582313258, "entry_slippage_usd": 0.4501269874840963, "liquidation_estimate": 0.44043108949784077 }, "confidence": 0.7629837463081635, "data_as_of": "2026-08-31T02:55:00+00:00", "assessments": { "news": { "model": "claude-opus-5", "usage": { "metering": { "unit": "credit", "usage": 0.3771767751907131, "unitPlural": "credits" }, "context_usage_pct": 0.9584000110626221 }, "reason": "No evidence touches ONDO's transmission channels. The Tectonic exploit and Cronos halt affect Crypto.com's chain, where Ondo's tokenized RWA products (OUSG/USDY) are not issued or bridged; Ondo deployments and its Ethereum-centric issuance, custody, and redemption stack are unaffected. The Cosmos IBC six-chain bug hits an ecosystem Ondo does not deploy to. The neobank card hack (SOL-tagged) concerns an unrelated issuer's token, not Ondo's Solana deployment, its custodian, or a listing venue. The AI cyber-defense item was routed here in error and is immaterial. Residual score reflects only a market-wide cluster of exploits within 48h, not asset-specific risk. Headline-level RSS only, one failed feed (oxylabs), so exchange announcements and social disclosures were not covered.", "symbol": "ONDOUSDT", "decision": "allow", "evidence": [ { "id": "rss-f869426298d24102", "url": "https://www.theblock.co/news/defi/2026-08-30-crypto-com-linked-cronos-network-halts-after-tectonic-exploit-estimated-at-75-million-413069", "title": "Crypto.com-linked Cronos network halts after Tectonic exploit estimated at $75 million", "source": "theblock", "tokens": [], "age_text": "8h", "age_hours": 8.0, "matched_by": "systemic_keyword", "published_at": "2026-08-30T18:40:08+00:00" }, { "id": "rss-28925d02b5745bca", "url": "https://decrypt.co/376863/ai-models-hacked-companies-ai-labs-cyber-defenses", "title": "After Their AI Models Hacked Real Companies, AI Labs Call for Stronger Cyber Defenses", "source": "decrypt", "tokens": [], "age_text": "13h", "age_hours": 13.0, "matched_by": "systemic_keyword", "published_at": "2026-08-30T13:31:04+00:00" }, { "id": "rss-4707d2adaa759e85", "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/web3/2026/08/29/a-usd1-1-million-crypto-card-hack-crashed-a-neobank-s-token-49", "title": "A $1.1 million crypto card hack crashed a neobank's token 49%", "source": "coindesk", "tokens": [ "SOL" ], "age_text": "1d", "age_hours": 24.0, "matched_by": "systemic_keyword", "published_at": "2026-08-29T23:49:17+00:00" }, { "id": "rss-b1b993df2ae0dede", "url": "https://www.theblock.co/news/defi/2026-08-29-cosmos-labs-says-it-wrongly-cleared-the-bug-behind-a-5-7-million-six-chain-hack-413061", "title": "Cosmos Labs says it wrongly cleared the bug behind a $5.7 million six-chain hack", "source": "theblock", "tokens": [ "ATOM" ], "age_text": "1d", "age_hours": 24.0, "matched_by": "systemic_keyword", "published_at": "2026-08-29T20:15:32+00:00" } ], "categories": [ "unknown" ], "confidence": 0.72, "risk_score": 14, "observed_at": "2026-08-31T03:02:32.743422+00:00", "unavailable": false, "corpus_count": 80, "evidence_ids": [ "rss-f869426298d24102", "rss-b1b993df2ae0dede", "rss-28925d02b5745bca", "rss-4707d2adaa759e85" ], "evidence_hash": "01379e1e17bcc0e7888e110beb01cac972f46d9713fd43f8a094071ae21566f8", "evidence_count": 4, "freshness_hours": 8.0, "agent_routed_count": 0 }, "carry": { "score": -0.07992714859451512, "skill": "carry", "action": "no_trade", "symbol": "ONDOUSDT", "vetoes": [ "carry_quality_gate" ], "factors": { "funding_mean": 1.2583444444444444e-05, "risk_buffer_bps": 9.538281580926675, "basis_change_vol": 0.0004205110859482011, "funding_edge_bps": 5.285046666666666, "current_basis_pct": -0.049437481783742854, "annual_funding_pct": 1.3778871666666666, "funding_persistence": 0.6555555555555556, "round_trip_cost_bps": 8.0, "basis_convergence_bps": 0.0 }, "reasons": [ "annual funding 1.38%; persistence 65.6%", "carry net EV -12.3 bps over 14d" ], "eligible": false, "metadata": { "perp_price": 0.34293038, "spot_price": 0.3431 }, "confidence": 0.845, "data_as_of": "2026-08-31T03:02:23.896183+00:00", "horizon_hours": 336.0, "expected_net_bps": -12.253234914260009 }, "directional": { "score": -0.6066074063854284, "skill": "directional", "action": "short", "symbol": "ONDOUSDT", "vetoes": [], "factors": { "adx": 24.837418199044464, "rsi": 41.930953850153564, "flow_z": null, "atr_pct": 0.0042530118753414045, "flow_term": 0.0, "kyle_lambda": null, "momentum_1h": 0.0011692487576733246, "trend_1h_atr": -1.162551151807892, "trend_5m_atr": -1.9680809145137605, "volume_ratio": 1.5811536407013917, "vwap_position": -0.005138449567249549, "gross_edge_bps": 32.24885628784096, "taker_imbalance": null, "funding_edge_bps": -0.0852, "round_trip_cost_bps": 16.0 }, "reasons": [ "short structure score -0.607", "1h trend aligned; BTC trending_down", "directional net EV +16.2 bps" ], "eligible": true, "metadata": { "atr": 0.001456656567304431, "frames": { "1h": { "vwap": null, "close": 0.3425, "ema_mid": 0.3523191212970713, "ema_fast": 0.3489315925374339, "ema_slow": 0.35477956924652904 }, "5m": { "vwap": 0.34426900894000523, "close": 0.3425, "ema_mid": 0.3438729682876625, "ema_fast": 0.34312194690687003, "ema_slow": 0.345988764895983 } }, "btc_regime": "trending_down", "mark_price": 0.34293038, "ema_periods": { "mid": 21, "fast": 9, "slow": 50 }, "candle_price": 0.3425, "funding_rate": -1.136e-05, "orderflow_enabled": false }, "confidence": 0.7629837463081635, "data_as_of": "2026-08-31T02:55:00+00:00", "horizon_hours": 6.0, "expected_net_bps": 16.163656287840958 }, "performance_carry": { "score": 0.0, "skill": "performance", "action": "allow", "symbol": "ONDOUSDT", "vetoes": [], "factors": { "wins": 0.0, "losses": 0.0, "samples": 0.0, "expectancy_usd": 0.0, "minimum_samples": 8.0, "sample_maturity": 0.0, "posterior_win_rate": 0.5, "win_rate_lower_bound": 0.3210613300064863 }, "reasons": [ "shrunk win rate 50.0%; lower bound 32.1%; n=0/8 minimum" ], "eligible": true, "metadata": {}, "confidence": 0.15, "data_as_of": "2026-08-31T03:02:23.896183+00:00", "horizon_hours": 24.0, "expected_net_bps": 0.0 }, "performance_directional": { "score": 0.0, "skill": "performance", "action": "allow", "symbol": "ONDOUSDT", "vetoes": [], "factors": { "wins": 0.0, "losses": 0.0, "samples": 0.0, "expectancy_usd": 0.0, "minimum_samples": 8.0, "sample_maturity": 0.0, "posterior_win_rate": 0.5, "win_rate_lower_bound": 0.3210613300064863 }, "reasons": [ "shrunk win rate 50.0%; lower bound 32.1%; n=0/8 minimum" ], "eligible": true, "metadata": {}, "confidence": 0.15, "data_as_of": "2026-08-31T03:02:23.896183+00:00", "horizon_hours": 24.0, "expected_net_bps": 0.0 } }, "captured_at": "2026-08-31T03:02:23.896183+00:00", "chart_setup": { "notes": [], "swing": { "low": { "price": 0.3413, "formed_at": "2026-08-31T02:00:00+00:00", "distance_pct": 0.4475537316144185 }, "high": { "price": 0.3457, "formed_at": "2026-08-31T02:10:00+00:00", "distance_pct": -0.830922509111948 } }, "atr_pct": 0.0042530118753414045, "support": { "kind": "asia_low", "price": 0.3406, "distance_pct": 0.6539932137404548 }, "ema_vwap": { "1h": [ { "name": "EMA9", "value": 0.3489315925374339, "relation": "di_bawah", "distance_pct": -1.7493662889751176 }, { "name": "EMA21", "value": 0.3523191212970713, "relation": "di_bawah", "distance_pct": -2.6940406686210197 }, { "name": "EMA50", "value": 0.35477956924652904, "relation": "di_bawah", "distance_pct": -3.368871659073408 } ], "5m": [ { "name": "EMA9", "value": 0.34312194690687003, "relation": "di_bawah", "distance_pct": -0.08581381153970605 }, { "name": "EMA21", "value": 0.3438729682876625, "relation": "di_bawah", "distance_pct": -0.3040272129759065 }, { "name": "EMA50", "value": 0.345988764895983, "relation": "di_bawah", "distance_pct": -0.913689787277747 }, { "name": "VWAP", "value": 0.34426900894000523, "relation": "di_bawah", "distance_pct": -0.41871560220990806 } ] }, "narrative": "Entry SHORT ONDOUSDT di 0.342828, di bawah EMA9/EMA21/EMA50/VWAP pada frame 5m. Tren 1h turun (-1.16 ATR), searah posisi; rezim BTC trending_down. Level 1h: support terdekat asia_low 0.3406 (+0.65%); resistance terdekat daily_open 0.3437 (-0.25%). Volatilitas ATR 0.43% dari harga; pola candle 5m terakhir: marubozu, inside_bar.", "resistance": { "kind": "daily_open", "price": 0.3437, "distance_pct": -0.2538548484143156 }, "candle_patterns": { "1h": [ "doji" ], "5m": [ "marubozu", "inside_bar" ] } }, "horizon_hours": 6.0, "roi_scenarios": { "usd_tp": { "roa_pct": 4.305863127122443, "rom_pct": 38.50071562276224, "exit_price": 0.3379859463075277, "r_multiple": 0.9136265150689272, "net_pnl_usd": 19.25001341768674 }, "tp_hard": { "roa_pct": 12.421572699946609, "rom_pct": 111.06703208834068, "exit_price": 0.3297, "r_multiple": 2.6356337492575457, "net_pnl_usd": 55.53252253574105 }, "fee_note": "net = gross(fill exit ber-slippage per sisi) − fee entry − fee exit taker; funding di luar skenario (belum diketahui saat entry); usd_tp ter-cap di ambang dolar → net = ambang − fee entry; usd_tp_mode=trail: sentuh ambang TIDAK menutup — trailing USD di-arm, lantai awal usd_trail_floor = ambang × (1 − giveback) dan naik mengikuti peak uPnL bersih (exit reason usd_trail_stop)", "stop_loss": { "roa_pct": -4.718885644008061, "rom_pct": -42.193741155377715, "exit_price": 0.3472, "r_multiple": -1.0012624458002837, "net_pnl_usd": -21.096493149421327 }, "trail_floor": { "roa_pct": 1.705111977920085, "rom_pct": 15.246195577688656, "exit_price": 0.340641251329, "r_multiple": 0.36179401625116114, "net_pnl_usd": 7.622961409726815 }, "usd_trail_floor": { "roa_pct": 2.963776854133276, "rom_pct": 26.50050093593357, "exit_price": 0.33935618444853943, "r_multiple": 0.6288600075621339, "net_pnl_usd": 13.250013417686741 } }, "snapshot_kind": "entry_snapshot", "thesis_version": 2, "breakeven_price": 0.34238213007417817, "expected_net_bps": 16.163656287840958, "funding_projection": { "note": "estimasi = rate saat entry × notional × settlement dalam max_hold; rate berubah tiap interval, interval riil simbol diinferensi dari history (fallback config)", "direction": "bayar", "est_usd_paid": 0.012779771362617915, "horizon_hours": 6.0, "interval_hours": 8.0, "est_settlements": 0.75, "interval_source": "config_fallback", "funding_rate_at_entry": -1.136e-05 }, "utility_bps_per_day": 8.835203001312326 }, "funding_paid": -0.00660491188168888, "last_mark_at": "2026-08-31T05:20:03.980151+00:00", "notional_usd": 1499.9731646265159, "trail_peak_r": 0.09861657481401961, "working_type": "MARK_PRICE", "ambiguous_bar": false, "current_price": 0.34760303, "price_move_pct": -1.3058051359446265, "risk_modifiers": [ "risk_gates_bypassed" ], "unrealized_pnl": -20.8943725324841, "equity_at_entry": 447.0651492944992, "exit_mark_price": 0.3472, "last_funding_at": "2026-08-31T04:00:00.002000+00:00", "usd_trail_armed": false, "barrier_evidence": { "series": "mark", "trigger": "stop_loss", "last_low": 0.3465, "mark_low": 0.34660805, "last_high": 0.3474, "mark_high": 0.3473, "fill_price": 0.3472, "bar_open_ms": 1788153480000, "both_touched": false }, "trail_r_distance": 0.004372499114000006, "usd_peak_net_usd": null, "exit_shadow_state": { "ptp": { "at": null, "open": true, "r_mult": 0.8, "pnl_usd": null, "fraction": 0.75, "part_done": false, "realized_usd": 0.0 }, "tstop": { "at": "2026-08-31T05:02:59.999000+00:00", "open": false, "min_r": 0.5, "reason": "no_progress", "minutes": 120.0, "pnl_usd": -11.151024684888604 }, "peak_r": 0.09861657481401961 }, "last_processed_ts": "2026-08-31T05:18:59.999000+00:00", "take_profit_price": 0.3297, "r_multiple_realized": -1.0009489695187939, "utility_bps_per_day": 8.835203001312326, "liquidation_estimate": 0.42437848201086265, "return_on_margin_pct": -42.18053109528308, "usd_tp_threshold_usd": 20.0, "return_on_account_pct": -4.717408250412942, "usd_tp_trail_giveback": 0.3, "safe_leverage_suggested": 30 }, { "qty": 6.628, "side": "short", "event": "meta_close", "shadow": { "bars": 149, "last": { "at": "2026-08-31T07:52:59.999000+00:00", "price": 229.16399702, "net_usd": -20.94114401258525 }, "complete": false, "max_adverse": { "at": "2026-08-31T05:45:00+00:00", "price": 230.66644076, "net_usd": -30.907309172721874, "rom_pct": -61.81974732019518 }, "max_favorable": { "at": "2026-08-31T06:45:00+00:00", "price": 228.16602709, "net_usd": -14.321306688606677, "rom_pct": -28.644989954870205 }, "vs_actual_usd": 12.026846364006241, "follow_minutes": 360, "checked_through": "2026-08-31T07:52:59.999000+00:00" }, "source": "live", "symbol": "TAOUSDT", "net_pnl": -26.34815305261292, "exit_fee": 0.7623794744134095, "leverage": 30, "risk_usd": 25.329541282778315, "strategy": "directional", "trade_id": "21cf1c05a0df4e0183d4307da2d2afab", "closed_at": "2026-08-31T05:24:37.578501+00:00", "entry_fee": 0.7499377750438927, "gross_pnl": -24.883398739033556, "llm_judge": { "model": "claude-opus-5", "score": 55.0, "reasons": [ "Searah struktur: trend 5m/1h turun, harga di bawah semua EMA 5m dan VWAP, BTC trending_down, taker 4h 0.445 (agresor jual)", "Bukan short kapitulasi: RSI 43.8, move 24h -3.6%, trend_1h_atr -1.43 dan jarak EMA50 1h -4.1% masih moderat", "Bahan bakar tipis: volume_ratio 0.83 mengering, OI 1h -0.53% (deleveraging), momentum_1h ~0, ADX 22 lemah", "Dibanding penilaian 158 menit lalu kondisi tidak memburuk (volume 0.51->0.83, OI -0.92->-0.53, harga -0.68% searah), funding p97.5 positif menguntungkan short" ], "verdict": "approve", "key_risk": "Volume mengering + OI turun tanpa dorongan agresor baru bisa memicu rebound teknikal ke EMA fast 1h (~230.8) sebelum leg turun lanjut", "better_entry": 227.0054232655371, "perubahan_material": { "alasan": [], "memburuk": false, "oi_1h_pct": { "dulu": -0.92, "kini": -0.53 }, "volume_ratio": { "dulu": 0.51, "kini": 0.83, "perubahan_pct": 62.0 }, "taker_ratio_4h": { "dulu": 0.419, "kini": 0.445 }, "harga_berubah_pct": -0.68 }, "better_entry_anchor": "vwap_5m" }, "opened_at": "2026-08-31T03:02:23.896183+00:00", "risk_tier": "fixed_margin", "tick_size": 0.01, "confidence": 0.715395705610305, "exit_price": 230.048121428307, "margin_usd": 49.995851669592845, "paper_only": true, "stop_price": 229.82, "entry_price": 226.293836766413, "exit_policy": "trail", "exit_shadow": { "ptp_mode": "tanpa_partial", "tstop_at": "2026-08-31T05:02:59.999000+00:00", "ptp_pnl_usd": -26.3482, "real_net_usd": -26.3482, "tstop_pnl_usd": -8.4253, "tstop_triggered": true }, "sizing_mode": "fixed_margin", "trail_armed": false, "usd_tp_mode": "trail", "close_reason": "stop_loss", "entry_thesis": { "setup": { "side": "short", "score": -0.5392687460872381, "strategy": "directional", "btc_regime": "trending_down", "confidence": 0.715395705610305, "score_note": "komponen skor ChartSkill yang sudah dihitung saat entry; mom_z tidak tersedia di jalur meta (null)", "gross_edge_bps": 35.04724694069963, "confidence_tier": "fixed_margin", "score_breakdown": { "adx": 22.199473815581015, "rsi": 43.83628488950715, "mom_z": null, "atr_pct": 0.0051992253873403595, "momentum_1h": 0.004441483455474238, "trend_1h_atr": -1.4291224122444217, "trend_5m_atr": -1.5744541441173332, "volume_ratio": 0.8307414250272899, "vwap_position": -0.0037682944012155874 }, "funding_edge_bps": 0.1401, "round_trip_cost_bps": 16.0 }, "action": "short", "levels": { "stop": 229.82, "entry": 226.293836766413, "take_profit": 215.71, "mark_at_entry": 226.36174529 }, "reason": "selected short utility=10.17 bps/day (news x0.94)", "symbol": "TAOUSDT", "vetoes": [], "filters": [ { "name": "session_window", "pass": true, "value": { "hour_utc": 3, "window_utc": null } }, { "name": "btc_gate", "pass": true, "value": { "applies": true, "btc_return_7d": -0.00028013844261098875 } }, { "name": "funding_extreme", "pass": true, "value": { "notes": null, "pctile": 97.5, "pctile_hi": 0.00040096624999999997, "pctile_lo": -0.0010736375, "funding_rate": 1.868e-05 } }, { "name": "vol_target", "pass": true, "value": { "vol_scale": 1.0, "realized_vol_daily_pct": 1.7225210676759268 } }, { "name": "taker_flow_gate", "pass": true, "value": { "min_ratio": 0.52, "taker_ratio_4h": 0.44534725574097267 } }, { "name": "freshness_gate", "pass": true, "value": { "atr_1h": 4.199999999999993, "dist_low_atr": -0.5714285714285737, "made_new_low": false, "dist_high_atr": -3.961904761904765, "made_new_high": false, "max_atr_above": 1.0 } }, { "name": "exhaustion", "pass": true, "value": { "notes": null, "enabled": true, "max_pct": 40.0, "move_24h_pct": -3.6059843996419594 } }, { "name": "overextended", "pass": true, "value": { "price": 226.15, "enabled": true, "max_pct": 40.0, "ema50_1h": 235.9388482373146, "ema_source": "chart_skill_1h", "dist_ema50_pct": -4.148892100833123 } }, { "name": "atr_band", "pass": true, "value": { "enabled": true, "dead_pct": 1.2, "atr_pct_1h": 1.5889622882457928, "extreme_pct": 15.0 } }, { "name": "oi_crowd", "pass": true, "value": { "note": null, "enabled": true, "max_pct": 8.0, "oi_change_1h_pct": -0.5292430840542761 } }, { "name": "crowd_positioning", "pass": true, "value": { "note": null, "side": "short", "enabled": false, "ls_ratio": null, "threshold": 1.5, "delta_block": 0.3, "ls_delta_1h": null } }, { "name": "stop_truncated", "pass": true, "value": { "atr_pct": 0.0051992253873403595, "cap_pct": 0.02, "enabled": true, "ratio_3atr_vs_cap": 0.779883808101054 } }, { "name": "plateau", "pass": true, "value": { "count": 0, "enabled": false, "conditions": null, "min_conditions": null } }, { "name": "universe", "pass": true, "value": { "rank": 31, "size": 46, "quote_volume_24h": 88888811.7 } }, { "name": "regime", "pass": true, "value": { "note": null, "btc_regime": "trending_down", "choppy_no_trade": false } }, { "name": "symbol_recent_loss", "pass": true, "value": { "enabled": true, "block_hours": 24.0, "block_until": null, "manual_exempt": null } }, { "name": "news", "pass": true, "value": { "reason": "No credible transmission channel to TAO. The Cronos halt/Tectonic exploit is a separate Cosmos-SDK-based chain and lending market with no Bittensor bridge, validator, or custody link. The Cosmos Labs IBC-era bug affects Cosmos SDK chains, w", "binding": false, "decision": "allow", "risk_score": 10, "unavailable": false } }, { "name": "portfolio_heat", "pass": true, "value": { "cap_usd": 6.0, "risk_usd": 25.329541282778315, "open_risk_after_usd": 71.66760712079065, "open_risk_before_usd": 46.338065838012334 } }, { "name": "correlated_side", "pass": true, "value": { "cap": 3, "applies": true, "same_side_alt_count": 2 } } ], "expected": { "horizon_hours": 6.0, "expected_net_bps": 19.187346940699626, "utility_bps_per_day": 10.170389824599667 }, "strategy": "directional", "exit_plan": { "tp_hard_r": 3.0, "stop_price": 229.82, "exit_policy": "trail", "trail_arm_r": 1.0, "usd_tp_mode": "trail", "tp_hard_price": 215.71, "usd_tp_r_mult": 2.0, "usd_tp_abs_usd": 20.0, "trail_arm_price": 222.767673532826, "daily_guardrails": { "loss_limit_usd": 100.0, "profit_target_usd": 100.0, "profit_floor_fraction": 0.5, "protect_profit_at_usd": 0.0 }, "trail_distance_r": 0.5, "time_stop_minutes": 360.0, "usd_trail_floor_usd": 14.0, "trail_distance_price": 1.7630816167934995, "usd_tp_threshold_usd": 20.0, "usd_tp_trail_giveback": 0.3 }, "risk_plan": { "qty": 6.628, "leverage": 30, "risk_usd": 25.329541282778315, "risk_tier": "fixed_margin", "margin_usd": 49.995851669592845, "notional_usd": 1499.8755500877853, "entry_fee_usd": 0.7499377750438927, "stop_distance": { "pct": 1.5582232746474691, "price": 3.526163233586999 }, "risk_modifiers": [ "risk_gates_bypassed" ], "leverage_reason": "safe_leverage: min(cap config 30x, floor(1/(stop_pct×2+0.005))) — estimasi likuidasi >= 2× jarak stop", "est_exit_fee_usd": 0.7499377750438927, "entry_slippage_usd": 0.45009769433459224, "liquidation_estimate": 286.0176254612958 }, "confidence": 0.715395705610305, "data_as_of": "2026-08-31T02:55:00+00:00", "assessments": { "news": { "model": "claude-opus-5", "usage": { "metering": { "unit": "credit", "usage": 0.29112768338308453, "unitPlural": "credits" }, "context_usage_pct": 0.9228999614715576 }, "reason": "No credible transmission channel to TAO. The Cronos halt/Tectonic exploit is a separate Cosmos-SDK-based chain and lending market with no Bittensor bridge, validator, or custody link. The Cosmos Labs IBC-era bug affects Cosmos SDK chains, while Bittensor/subtensor is Substrate-based and not in the six affected chains. The neobank card hack is an issuer-side card program (SOL-tagged) unrelated to TAO liquidity or custody. The AI-labs cyber-defense story touches the AI narrative TAO trades on but names no exploit, exchange, bridge, or counterparty of Bittensor, so it is sentiment at most. All four items appear to have been routed here on market-wide keyword matching and are immaterial to this symbol; no hack, delisting, depeg, insolvency, chain halt, or withdrawal freeze affecting TAO or its", "symbol": "TAOUSDT", "decision": "allow", "evidence": [ { "id": "rss-f869426298d24102", "url": "https://www.theblock.co/news/defi/2026-08-30-crypto-com-linked-cronos-network-halts-after-tectonic-exploit-estimated-at-75-million-413069", "title": "Crypto.com-linked Cronos network halts after Tectonic exploit estimated at $75 million", "source": "theblock", "tokens": [], "age_text": "8h", "age_hours": 8.0, "matched_by": "systemic_keyword", "published_at": "2026-08-30T18:40:08+00:00" }, { "id": "rss-28925d02b5745bca", "url": "https://decrypt.co/376863/ai-models-hacked-companies-ai-labs-cyber-defenses", "title": "After Their AI Models Hacked Real Companies, AI Labs Call for Stronger Cyber Defenses", "source": "decrypt", "tokens": [], "age_text": "13h", "age_hours": 13.0, "matched_by": "systemic_keyword", "published_at": "2026-08-30T13:31:04+00:00" }, { "id": "rss-4707d2adaa759e85", "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/web3/2026/08/29/a-usd1-1-million-crypto-card-hack-crashed-a-neobank-s-token-49", "title": "A $1.1 million crypto card hack crashed a neobank's token 49%", "source": "coindesk", "tokens": [ "SOL" ], "age_text": "1d", "age_hours": 24.0, "matched_by": "systemic_keyword", "published_at": "2026-08-29T23:49:17+00:00" }, { "id": "rss-b1b993df2ae0dede", "url": "https://www.theblock.co/news/defi/2026-08-29-cosmos-labs-says-it-wrongly-cleared-the-bug-behind-a-5-7-million-six-chain-hack-413061", "title": "Cosmos Labs says it wrongly cleared the bug behind a $5.7 million six-chain hack", "source": "theblock", "tokens": [ "ATOM" ], "age_text": "1d", "age_hours": 24.0, "matched_by": "systemic_keyword", "published_at": "2026-08-29T20:15:32+00:00" } ], "categories": [ "unknown" ], "confidence": 0.76, "risk_score": 10, "observed_at": "2026-08-31T03:02:32.743422+00:00", "unavailable": false, "corpus_count": 80, "evidence_ids": [ "rss-f869426298d24102", "rss-28925d02b5745bca", "rss-4707d2adaa759e85", "rss-b1b993df2ae0dede" ], "evidence_hash": "01379e1e17bcc0e7888e110beb01cac972f46d9713fd43f8a094071ae21566f8", "evidence_count": 4, "freshness_hours": 8.0, "agent_routed_count": 0 }, "carry": { "score": -0.028060672896022702, "skill": "carry", "action": "no_trade", "symbol": "TAOUSDT", "vetoes": [ "carry_quality_gate" ], "factors": { "funding_mean": 3.4591370370370374e-05, "risk_buffer_bps": 9.673138659427796, "basis_change_vol": 0.00042645648565643653, "funding_edge_bps": 14.528375555555556, "current_basis_pct": -0.061039607064028445, "annual_funding_pct": 3.7877550555555555, "funding_persistence": 0.8925925925925926, "round_trip_cost_bps": 8.0, "basis_convergence_bps": 0.0 }, "reasons": [ "annual funding 3.79%; persistence 89.3%", "carry net EV -3.1 bps over 14d" ], "eligible": false, "metadata": { "perp_price": 226.36174529, "spot_price": 226.5 }, "confidence": 0.95, "data_as_of": "2026-08-31T03:02:23.896183+00:00", "horizon_hours": 336.0, "expected_net_bps": -3.14476310387224 }, "directional": { "score": -0.5392687460872381, "skill": "directional", "action": "short", "symbol": "TAOUSDT", "vetoes": [], "factors": { "adx": 22.199473815581015, "rsi": 43.83628488950715, "flow_z": null, "atr_pct": 0.0051992253873403595, "flow_term": 0.0, "kyle_lambda": null, "momentum_1h": 0.004441483455474238, "trend_1h_atr": -1.4291224122444217, "trend_5m_atr": -1.5744541441173332, "volume_ratio": 0.8307414250272899, "vwap_position": -0.0037682944012155874, "gross_edge_bps": 35.04724694069963, "taker_imbalance": null, "funding_edge_bps": 0.1401, "round_trip_cost_bps": 16.0 }, "reasons": [ "short structure score -0.539", "1h trend aligned; BTC trending_down", "directional net EV +19.2 bps" ], "eligible": true, "metadata": { "atr": 1.1758048213470222, "frames": { "1h": { "vwap": null, "close": 226.15, "ema_mid": 233.83651271238662, "ema_fast": 230.80338514743136, "ema_slow": 235.9388482373146 }, "5m": { "vwap": 227.0054232655371, "close": 226.15, "ema_mid": 226.9360772550209, "ema_fast": 226.609893177946, "ema_slow": 228.46114395158895 } }, "btc_regime": "trending_down", "mark_price": 226.36174529, "ema_periods": { "mid": 21, "fast": 9, "slow": 50 }, "candle_price": 226.15, "funding_rate": 1.868e-05, "orderflow_enabled": false }, "confidence": 0.715395705610305, "data_as_of": "2026-08-31T02:55:00+00:00", "horizon_hours": 6.0, "expected_net_bps": 19.187346940699626 }, "performance_carry": { "score": 0.0, "skill": "performance", "action": "allow", "symbol": "TAOUSDT", "vetoes": [], "factors": { "wins": 0.0, "losses": 0.0, "samples": 0.0, "expectancy_usd": 0.0, "minimum_samples": 8.0, "sample_maturity": 0.0, "posterior_win_rate": 0.5, "win_rate_lower_bound": 0.3210613300064863 }, "reasons": [ "shrunk win rate 50.0%; lower bound 32.1%; n=0/8 minimum" ], "eligible": true, "metadata": {}, "confidence": 0.15, "data_as_of": "2026-08-31T03:02:23.896183+00:00", "horizon_hours": 24.0, "expected_net_bps": 0.0 }, "performance_directional": { "score": 0.04761904761904767, "skill": "performance", "action": "allow", "symbol": "TAOUSDT", "vetoes": [], "factors": { "wins": 1.0, "losses": 0.0, "samples": 1.0, "expectancy_usd": 10.90398043728783, "minimum_samples": 8.0, "sample_maturity": 0.125, "posterior_win_rate": 0.5238095238095238, "win_rate_lower_bound": 0.34918326270954025 }, "reasons": [ "shrunk win rate 52.4%; lower bound 34.9%; n=1/8 minimum" ], "eligible": true, "metadata": {}, "confidence": 0.1880952380952381, "data_as_of": "2026-08-31T03:02:23.896183+00:00", "horizon_hours": 24.0, "expected_net_bps": 0.0 } }, "captured_at": "2026-08-31T03:02:23.896183+00:00", "chart_setup": { "notes": [], "swing": { "low": { "price": 226.57, "formed_at": "2026-08-31T02:20:00+00:00", "distance_pct": -0.12188870264686366 }, "high": { "price": 229.3, "formed_at": "2026-08-31T02:25:00+00:00", "distance_pct": -1.3110175462655982 } }, "atr_pct": 0.0051992253873403595, "support": { "kind": "asia_low", "price": 224.68, "distance_pct": 0.7182823421813189 }, "ema_vwap": { "1h": [ { "name": "EMA9", "value": 230.80338514743136, "relation": "di_bawah", "distance_pct": -1.9538484576982165 }, { "name": "EMA21", "value": 233.83651271238662, "relation": "di_bawah", "distance_pct": -3.225619411819976 }, { "name": "EMA50", "value": 235.9388482373146, "relation": "di_bawah", "distance_pct": -4.0879285217160835 } ], "5m": [ { "name": "EMA9", "value": 226.609893177946, "relation": "di_bawah", "distance_pct": -0.1394715857726536 }, { "name": "EMA21", "value": 226.9360772550209, "relation": "di_bawah", "distance_pct": -0.28300501902400854 }, { "name": "EMA50", "value": 228.46114395158895, "relation": "di_bawah", "distance_pct": -0.9486546148237842 }, { "name": "VWAP", "value": 227.0054232655371, "relation": "di_bawah", "distance_pct": -0.3134667396433693 } ] }, "narrative": "Entry SHORT TAOUSDT di 226.294, di bawah EMA9/EMA21/EMA50/VWAP pada frame 5m. Tren 1h turun (-1.43 ATR), searah posisi; rezim BTC trending_down. Level 1h: support terdekat asia_low 224.68 (+0.72%); resistance terdekat daily_open 227.38 (-0.48%). Volatilitas ATR 0.52% dari harga; pola candle 5m terakhir: tweezer_bottom, inside_bar.", "resistance": { "kind": "daily_open", "price": 227.38, "distance_pct": -0.4776863548188061 }, "candle_patterns": { "1h": [ "pin_up", "tweezer_bottom" ], "5m": [ "tweezer_bottom", "inside_bar" ] } }, "horizon_hours": 6.0, "roi_scenarios": { "usd_tp": { "roa_pct": 4.305874044383483, "rom_pct": 38.50331893968689, "exit_price": 223.09782353416142, "r_multiple": 0.7599846365178481, "net_pnl_usd": 19.250062224956107 }, "tp_hard": { "roa_pct": 15.26751464693053, "rom_pct": 136.52280113346325, "exit_price": 215.71, "r_multiple": 2.6947087745433005, "net_pnl_usd": 68.2557371498595 }, "fee_note": "net = gross(fill exit ber-slippage per sisi) − fee entry − fee exit taker; funding di luar skenario (belum diketahui saat entry); usd_tp ter-cap di ambang dolar → net = ambang − fee entry; usd_tp_mode=trail: sentuh ambang TIDAK menutup — trailing USD di-arm, lantai awal usd_trail_floor = ambang × (1 − giveback) dan naik mengikuti peak uPnL bersih (exit reason usd_trail_stop)", "stop_loss": { "roa_pct": -5.668116555784099, "rom_pct": -50.68455261002012, "exit_price": 229.82, "r_multiple": -1.000419765182693, "net_pnl_usd": -25.340173742302408 }, "trail_floor": { "roa_pct": 2.1797700160389692, "rom_pct": 19.491601305010246, "exit_price": 224.5307551496195, "r_multiple": 0.38472832838496823, "net_pnl_usd": 9.744992076481346 }, "usd_trail_floor": { "roa_pct": 2.9637877713943155, "rom_pct": 26.502323257780823, "exit_price": 224.00235022975113, "r_multiple": 0.5231070739510348, "net_pnl_usd": 13.250062224956107 } }, "snapshot_kind": "entry_snapshot", "thesis_version": 2, "breakeven_price": 225.99985606320087, "expected_net_bps": 19.187346940699626, "funding_projection": { "note": "estimasi = rate saat entry × notional × settlement dalam max_hold; rate berubah tiap interval, interval riil simbol diinferensi dari history (fallback config)", "direction": "terima", "est_usd_paid": -0.04202651291345974, "horizon_hours": 6.0, "interval_hours": 4.0, "est_settlements": 1.5, "interval_source": "history_inference", "funding_rate_at_entry": 1.868e-05 }, "utility_bps_per_day": 10.170389824599667 }, "funding_paid": -0.04756293587794154, "last_mark_at": "2026-08-31T05:24:37.578501+00:00", "notional_usd": 1499.8755500877853, "trail_peak_r": -0.04712295562618744, "working_type": "MARK_PRICE", "ambiguous_bar": false, "current_price": 229.97912769, "price_move_pct": -1.6590308934349318, "risk_modifiers": [ "risk_gates_bypassed" ], "unrealized_pnl": -24.42610824153476, "equity_at_entry": 447.0651492944992, "exit_mark_price": 229.97912769, "last_funding_at": "2026-08-31T04:00:00.002000+00:00", "usd_trail_armed": false, "barrier_evidence": { "series": "mark", "trigger": "stop_loss", "last_low": null, "mark_low": 229.97912769, "last_high": null, "mark_high": 229.97912769, "fill_price": 229.97912769, "bar_open_ms": 1788153840000, "both_touched": false }, "trail_r_distance": 3.526163233586999, "usd_peak_net_usd": null, "exit_shadow_state": { "ptp": { "at": null, "open": true, "r_mult": 0.8, "pnl_usd": null, "fraction": 0.75, "part_done": false, "realized_usd": 0.0 }, "tstop": { "at": "2026-08-31T05:02:59.999000+00:00", "open": false, "min_r": 0.5, "reason": "no_progress", "minutes": 120.0, "pnl_usd": -7.67531231204862 }, "peak_r": 0.0 }, "last_processed_ts": "2026-08-31T05:23:59.999000+00:00", "take_profit_price": 215.71, "r_multiple_realized": -1.0402143788733815, "utility_bps_per_day": 10.170389824599667, "liquidation_estimate": 282.4593680929875, "return_on_margin_pct": -52.700678501767975, "usd_tp_threshold_usd": 20.0, "return_on_account_pct": -5.893582421754903, "usd_tp_trail_giveback": 0.3, "safe_leverage_suggested": 27 }, { "qty": 438362.0, "side": "short", "event": "meta_close", "shadow": { "bars": 148, "last": { "at": "2026-08-31T07:52:59.999000+00:00", "price": 0.0035113, "net_usd": -41.20485900580784 }, "complete": false, "max_adverse": { "at": "2026-08-31T07:44:00+00:00", "price": 0.0035175, "net_usd": -43.9248780890043, "rom_pct": -87.8499179689483 }, "max_favorable": { "at": "2026-08-31T05:40:00+00:00", "price": 0.00345312, "net_usd": -15.680550899294767, "rom_pct": -31.361159555632362 }, "vs_actual_usd": 11.472338552514875, "follow_minutes": 360, "checked_through": "2026-08-31T07:52:59.999000+00:00" }, "source": "live", "symbol": "1000PEPEUSDT", "net_pnl": -27.152889451809642, "exit_fee": 0.7628186548333611, "leverage": 30, "risk_usd": 25.268172287216633, "strategy": "directional", "trade_id": "79b079bda781472fb17aae30dec81d17", "closed_at": "2026-08-31T05:25:42.396830+00:00", "entry_fee": 0.749998618744245, "gross_pnl": -25.640072178232035, "llm_judge": { "model": "claude-opus-5", "score": 52.0, "reasons": [ "Arah solid: EMA 1h stack bearish, harga di bawah semua EMA, ADX 27.7, BTC trending_down; entry di VWAP/EMA fast 5m bukan mengejar low", "Bahan bakar sebagian segar vs penilaian lalu: volume_ratio 0.16 -> 1.37 dan taker 4h 0.443 masih sisi jual, funding hampir netral, RSI 45 belum jenuh jual", "Cacat: OI 1h -0.52% (aliran menutup posisi, bukan short baru) dan momentum_1h ~0 dengan harga -6% di bawah EMA50-1h + label EXTENDED_5m >2ATR", "Taker melunak 0.423 -> 0.443 dan short terakhir di simbol ini kena stop_loss, jadi ukuran kecil dan fill lebih baik di EMA mid 5m" ], "verdict": "approve", "key_risk": "Rebound/short-squeeze pasca-flush: OI turun dan momentum 1h datar jauh di bawah EMA50-1h, entry rawan kena stop pada retest ke atas", "better_entry": 0.0034328733323824067, "perubahan_material": { "alasan": [], "memburuk": false, "oi_1h_pct": { "dulu": -0.15, "kini": -0.52 }, "volume_ratio": { "dulu": 0.16, "kini": 1.37, "perubahan_pct": 765.5 }, "taker_ratio_4h": { "dulu": 0.423, "kini": 0.443 }, "harga_berubah_pct": -0.52 }, "better_entry_anchor": "ema_mid_5m" }, "opened_at": "2026-08-31T03:02:23.896183+00:00", "risk_tier": "fixed_margin", "tick_size": 1e-07, "confidence": 0.7733369899850603, "exit_price": 0.003480313781, "margin_usd": 49.99990791628299, "paper_only": true, "stop_price": 0.003475, "entry_price": 0.003421823145, "exit_policy": "trail", "exit_shadow": { "ptp_mode": "tanpa_partial", "tstop_at": "2026-08-31T05:02:59.999000+00:00", "ptp_pnl_usd": -27.1529, "real_net_usd": -27.1529, "tstop_pnl_usd": -4.6074, "tstop_triggered": true }, "sizing_mode": "fixed_margin", "trail_armed": false, "usd_tp_mode": "trail", "close_reason": "stop_loss", "entry_thesis": { "setup": { "side": "short", "score": -0.6047378619239346, "strategy": "directional", "btc_regime": "trending_down", "confidence": 0.7733369899850603, "score_note": "komponen skor ChartSkill yang sudah dihitung saat entry; mom_z tidak tersedia di jalur meta (null)", "gross_edge_bps": 39.14339311485568, "confidence_tier": "fixed_margin", "score_breakdown": { "adx": 27.682791481724074, "rsi": 45.077550603005825, "mom_z": null, "atr_pct": 0.005178229521177786, "momentum_1h": 0.0018139262726741823, "trend_1h_atr": -1.8934812123682234, "trend_5m_atr": -2.2383752878822554, "volume_ratio": 1.3651001066715505, "vwap_position": -0.0007957473690254918 }, "funding_edge_bps": -0.1995, "round_trip_cost_bps": 16.0 }, "action": "short", "levels": { "stop": 0.003475, "entry": 0.003421823145, "take_profit": 0.0032622, "mark_at_entry": 0.00342285 }, "reason": "selected short utility=12.54 bps/day (news x0.92)", "symbol": "1000PEPEUSDT", "vetoes": [], "filters": [ { "name": "session_window", "pass": true, "value": { "hour_utc": 3, "window_utc": null } }, { "name": "btc_gate", "pass": true, "value": { "applies": true, "btc_return_7d": -0.00028013844261098875 } }, { "name": "funding_extreme", "pass": true, "value": { "notes": null, "pctile": 97.5, "pctile_hi": 0.00040096624999999997, "pctile_lo": -0.0010736375, "funding_rate": -2.66e-05 } }, { "name": "vol_target", "pass": true, "value": { "vol_scale": 1.0, "realized_vol_daily_pct": 1.7225210676759268 } }, { "name": "taker_flow_gate", "pass": true, "value": { "min_ratio": 0.52, "taker_ratio_4h": 0.44277628556242904 } }, { "name": "freshness_gate", "pass": true, "value": { "atr_1h": 7.956428571428573e-05, "dist_low_atr": -0.8056378489990136, "made_new_low": false, "dist_high_atr": -4.803662806356047, "made_new_high": false, "max_atr_above": 1.0 } }, { "name": "exhaustion", "pass": true, "value": { "notes": null, "enabled": true, "max_pct": 40.0, "move_24h_pct": -5.830262361806282 } }, { "name": "overextended", "pass": true, "value": { "price": 0.0034242, "enabled": true, "max_pct": 40.0, "ema50_1h": 0.0036435627371376542, "ema_source": "chart_skill_1h", "dist_ema50_pct": -6.020556059094606 } }, { "name": "atr_band", "pass": true, "value": { "enabled": true, "dead_pct": 1.2, "atr_pct_1h": 1.830516376125936, "extreme_pct": 15.0 } }, { "name": "oi_crowd", "pass": true, "value": { "note": null, "enabled": true, "max_pct": 8.0, "oi_change_1h_pct": -0.5244173956983733 } }, { "name": "crowd_positioning", "pass": true, "value": { "note": null, "side": "short", "enabled": false, "ls_ratio": null, "threshold": 1.5, "delta_block": 0.3, "ls_delta_1h": null } }, { "name": "stop_truncated", "pass": true, "value": { "atr_pct": 0.005178229521177786, "cap_pct": 0.02, "enabled": true, "ratio_3atr_vs_cap": 0.7767344281766679 } }, { "name": "plateau", "pass": true, "value": { "count": 0, "enabled": false, "conditions": null, "min_conditions": null } }, { "name": "universe", "pass": true, "value": { "rank": 18, "size": 46, "quote_volume_24h": 218431410.4243988 } }, { "name": "regime", "pass": true, "value": { "note": null, "btc_regime": "trending_down", "choppy_no_trade": false } }, { "name": "symbol_recent_loss", "pass": true, "value": { "enabled": true, "block_hours": 24.0, "block_until": null, "manual_exempt": null } }, { "name": "news", "pass": true, "value": { "reason": "No material transmission channel to 1000PEPEUSDT. PEPE is an ERC-20 on Ethereum with liquidity concentrated on Ethereum DEXs and major CEX perp venues; the Cronos halt/Tectonic exploit ($75M) is confined to a separate Crypto.com-linked chai", "binding": false, "decision": "allow", "risk_score": 14, "unavailable": false } }, { "name": "portfolio_heat", "pass": true, "value": { "cap_usd": 6.0, "risk_usd": 25.268172287216633, "open_risk_after_usd": 46.338065838012334, "open_risk_before_usd": 21.0698935507957 } }, { "name": "correlated_side", "pass": true, "value": { "cap": 3, "applies": true, "same_side_alt_count": 1 } } ], "expected": { "horizon_hours": 6.0, "expected_net_bps": 22.943893114855676, "utility_bps_per_day": 12.535786106682545 }, "strategy": "directional", "exit_plan": { "tp_hard_r": 3.0, "stop_price": 0.003475, "exit_policy": "trail", "trail_arm_r": 1.0, "usd_tp_mode": "trail", "tp_hard_price": 0.0032622, "usd_tp_r_mult": 2.0, "usd_tp_abs_usd": 20.0, "trail_arm_price": 0.00336864629, "daily_guardrails": { "loss_limit_usd": 100.0, "profit_target_usd": 100.0, "profit_floor_fraction": 0.5, "protect_profit_at_usd": 0.0 }, "trail_distance_r": 0.5, "time_stop_minutes": 360.0, "usd_trail_floor_usd": 14.0, "trail_distance_price": 2.6588427499999942e-05, "usd_tp_threshold_usd": 20.0, "usd_tp_trail_giveback": 0.3 }, "risk_plan": { "qty": 438362.0, "leverage": 30, "risk_usd": 25.268172287216633, "risk_tier": "fixed_margin", "margin_usd": 49.99990791628299, "notional_usd": 1499.9972374884899, "entry_fee_usd": 0.749998618744245, "stop_distance": { "pct": 1.5540503628220064, "price": 5.3176854999999884e-05 }, "risk_modifiers": [ "risk_gates_bypassed" ], "leverage_reason": "safe_leverage: min(cap config 30x, floor(1/(stop_pct×2+0.005))) — estimasi likuidasi >= 2× jarak stop", "est_exit_fee_usd": 0.749998618744245, "entry_slippage_usd": 0.45013421150997573, "liquidation_estimate": 0.004360422964016655 }, "confidence": 0.7733369899850603, "data_as_of": "2026-08-31T02:55:00+00:00", "assessments": { "news": { "model": "claude-opus-5", "usage": { "metering": { "unit": "credit", "usage": 0.3118083200331675, "unitPlural": "credits" }, "context_usage_pct": 0.9317000508308411 }, "reason": "No material transmission channel to 1000PEPEUSDT. PEPE is an ERC-20 on Ethereum with liquidity concentrated on Ethereum DEXs and major CEX perp venues; the Cronos halt/Tectonic exploit ($75M) is confined to a separate Crypto.com-linked chain and its lending market, the Cosmos Labs six-chain IBC bug touches ATOM/IBC infrastructure PEPE does not use, and the neobank card hack (SOL-tagged) and AI-lab cyber-defense story are unrelated routing noise that should be scored low. Residual risk is only generic risk-off sentiment that could compress perp funding on the carry leg, which is not a veto condition. No evidence of PEPE-specific hack, delisting, depeg, insolvency, custodian failure, or frozen withdrawals.", "symbol": "1000PEPEUSDT", "decision": "allow", "evidence": [ { "id": "rss-f869426298d24102", "url": "https://www.theblock.co/news/defi/2026-08-30-crypto-com-linked-cronos-network-halts-after-tectonic-exploit-estimated-at-75-million-413069", "title": "Crypto.com-linked Cronos network halts after Tectonic exploit estimated at $75 million", "source": "theblock", "tokens": [], "age_text": "8h", "age_hours": 8.0, "matched_by": "systemic_keyword", "published_at": "2026-08-30T18:40:08+00:00" }, { "id": "rss-28925d02b5745bca", "url": "https://decrypt.co/376863/ai-models-hacked-companies-ai-labs-cyber-defenses", "title": "After Their AI Models Hacked Real Companies, AI Labs Call for Stronger Cyber Defenses", "source": "decrypt", "tokens": [], "age_text": "13h", "age_hours": 13.0, "matched_by": "systemic_keyword", "published_at": "2026-08-30T13:31:04+00:00" }, { "id": "rss-4707d2adaa759e85", "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/web3/2026/08/29/a-usd1-1-million-crypto-card-hack-crashed-a-neobank-s-token-49", "title": "A $1.1 million crypto card hack crashed a neobank's token 49%", "source": "coindesk", "tokens": [ "SOL" ], "age_text": "1d", "age_hours": 24.0, "matched_by": "systemic_keyword", "published_at": "2026-08-29T23:49:17+00:00" }, { "id": "rss-b1b993df2ae0dede", "url": "https://www.theblock.co/news/defi/2026-08-29-cosmos-labs-says-it-wrongly-cleared-the-bug-behind-a-5-7-million-six-chain-hack-413061", "title": "Cosmos Labs says it wrongly cleared the bug behind a $5.7 million six-chain hack", "source": "theblock", "tokens": [ "ATOM" ], "age_text": "1d", "age_hours": 24.0, "matched_by": "systemic_keyword", "published_at": "2026-08-29T20:15:32+00:00" } ], "categories": [ "unknown" ], "confidence": 0.72, "risk_score": 14, "observed_at": "2026-08-31T03:02:32.743422+00:00", "unavailable": false, "corpus_count": 80, "evidence_ids": [ "rss-f869426298d24102", "rss-b1b993df2ae0dede", "rss-4707d2adaa759e85", "rss-28925d02b5745bca" ], "evidence_hash": "01379e1e17bcc0e7888e110beb01cac972f46d9713fd43f8a094071ae21566f8", "evidence_count": 4, "freshness_hours": 8.0, "agent_routed_count": 0 }, "carry": { "score": 0, "skill": "carry", "action": "no_trade", "symbol": "1000PEPEUSDT", "vetoes": [ "carry_data_quality" ], "factors": {}, "reasons": [ "spot_source_unavailable" ], "eligible": false, "metadata": {}, "confidence": 0, "data_as_of": "2026-08-31T03:02:23.896183+00:00", "horizon_hours": 24, "expected_net_bps": 0 }, "directional": { "score": -0.6047378619239346, "skill": "directional", "action": "short", "symbol": "1000PEPEUSDT", "vetoes": [], "factors": { "adx": 27.682791481724074, "rsi": 45.077550603005825, "flow_z": null, "atr_pct": 0.005178229521177786, "flow_term": 0.0, "kyle_lambda": null, "momentum_1h": 0.0018139262726741823, "trend_1h_atr": -1.8934812123682234, "trend_5m_atr": -2.2383752878822554, "volume_ratio": 1.3651001066715505, "vwap_position": -0.0007957473690254918, "gross_edge_bps": 39.14339311485568, "taker_imbalance": null, "funding_edge_bps": -0.1995, "round_trip_cost_bps": 16.0 }, "reasons": [ "short structure score -0.605", "1h trend aligned; BTC trending_down", "directional net EV +22.9 bps" ], "eligible": true, "metadata": { "atr": 1.7731293526416975e-05, "frames": { "1h": { "vwap": null, "close": 0.0034242, "ema_mid": 0.0035920201295698557, "ema_fast": 0.0035248783089504975, "ema_slow": 0.0036435627371376542 }, "5m": { "vwap": 0.003426926968118723, "close": 0.0034242, "ema_mid": 0.0034328733323824067, "ema_fast": 0.003427455023928307, "ema_slow": 0.0034671443131800254 } }, "btc_regime": "trending_down", "mark_price": 0.00342285, "ema_periods": { "mid": 21, "fast": 9, "slow": 50 }, "candle_price": 0.0034242, "funding_rate": -2.66e-05, "orderflow_enabled": false }, "confidence": 0.7733369899850603, "data_as_of": "2026-08-31T02:55:00+00:00", "horizon_hours": 6.0, "expected_net_bps": 22.943893114855676 }, "performance_carry": { "score": 0.0, "skill": "performance", "action": "allow", "symbol": "1000PEPEUSDT", "vetoes": [], "factors": { "wins": 0.0, "losses": 0.0, "samples": 0.0, "expectancy_usd": 0.0, "minimum_samples": 8.0, "sample_maturity": 0.0, "posterior_win_rate": 0.5, "win_rate_lower_bound": 0.3210613300064863 }, "reasons": [ "shrunk win rate 50.0%; lower bound 32.1%; n=0/8 minimum" ], "eligible": true, "metadata": {}, "confidence": 0.15, "data_as_of": "2026-08-31T03:02:23.896183+00:00", "horizon_hours": 24.0, "expected_net_bps": 0.0 }, "performance_directional": { "score": -0.04761904761904767, "skill": "performance", "action": "allow", "symbol": "1000PEPEUSDT", "vetoes": [], "factors": { "wins": 0.0, "losses": 1.0, "samples": 1.0, "expectancy_usd": -15.293945252757458, "minimum_samples": 8.0, "sample_maturity": 0.125, "posterior_win_rate": 0.47619047619047616, "win_rate_lower_bound": 0.3015642150904926 }, "reasons": [ "shrunk win rate 47.6%; lower bound 30.2%; n=1/8 minimum" ], "eligible": true, "metadata": {}, "confidence": 0.1880952380952381, "data_as_of": "2026-08-31T03:02:23.896183+00:00", "horizon_hours": 24.0, "expected_net_bps": 0.0 } }, "captured_at": "2026-08-31T03:02:23.896183+00:00", "chart_setup": { "notes": [], "swing": { "low": { "price": 0.0034074, "formed_at": "2026-08-31T01:55:00+00:00", "distance_pct": 0.4232888712801493 }, "high": { "price": 0.0034683, "formed_at": "2026-08-31T02:15:00+00:00", "distance_pct": -1.3400471412507629 } }, "atr_pct": 0.005178229521177786, "support": { "kind": "daily_open", "price": 0.0034012, "distance_pct": 0.606349082676698 }, "ema_vwap": { "1h": [ { "name": "EMA9", "value": 0.0035248783089504975, "relation": "di_bawah", "distance_pct": -2.9236516815010676 }, { "name": "EMA21", "value": 0.0035920201295698557, "relation": "di_bawah", "distance_pct": -4.738196848307666 }, { "name": "EMA50", "value": 0.0036435627371376542, "relation": "di_bawah", "distance_pct": -6.0857904236843385 } ], "5m": [ { "name": "EMA9", "value": 0.003427455023928307, "relation": "di_bawah", "distance_pct": -0.16431663986803563 }, { "name": "EMA21", "value": 0.0034328733323824067, "relation": "di_bawah", "distance_pct": -0.3218932454678704 }, { "name": "EMA50", "value": 0.0034671443131800254, "relation": "di_bawah", "distance_pct": -1.307161285665017 }, { "name": "VWAP", "value": 0.003426926968118723, "relation": "di_bawah", "distance_pct": -0.1489329409761244 } ] }, "narrative": "Entry SHORT 1000PEPEUSDT di 0.00342182, di bawah EMA9/EMA21/EMA50/VWAP pada frame 5m. Tren 1h turun (-1.89 ATR), searah posisi; rezim BTC trending_down. Level 1h: support terdekat daily_open 0.0034012 (+0.61%); resistance terdekat fvg_bear_bottom 0.0034467 (-0.72%). Volatilitas ATR 0.52% dari harga; pola candle 5m terakhir: tweezer_bottom, outside_bar.", "resistance": { "kind": "fvg_bear_bottom", "price": 0.0034467, "distance_pct": -0.7217586386978884 }, "candle_patterns": { "1h": [ "tweezer_bottom", "doji", "outside_bar" ], "5m": [ "tweezer_bottom", "outside_bar" ] } }, "horizon_hours": 6.0, "roi_scenarios": { "usd_tp": { "roa_pct": 4.305860434800976, "rom_pct": 38.50007366710928, "exit_price": 0.0033734994467923764, "r_multiple": 0.7618280088660976, "net_pnl_usd": 19.250001381255753 }, "tp_hard": { "roa_pct": 15.227867450724144, "rom_pct": 136.1572274631687, "exit_price": 0.0032622, "r_multiple": 2.6942387276419586, "net_pnl_usd": 68.07848835294834 }, "fee_note": "net = gross(fill exit ber-slippage per sisi) − fee entry − fee exit taker; funding di luar skenario (belum diketahui saat entry); usd_tp ter-cap di ambang dolar → net = ambang − fee entry; usd_tp_mode=trail: sentuh ambang TIDAK menutup — trailing USD di-arm, lantai awal usd_trail_floor = ambang × (1 − giveback) dan naik mengikuti peak uPnL bersih (exit reason usd_trail_stop)", "stop_loss": { "roa_pct": -5.654564223209892, "rom_pct": -50.55926508659445, "exit_price": 0.003475, "r_multiple": -1.0004517026043782, "net_pnl_usd": -25.279585986446644 }, "trail_floor": { "roa_pct": 2.1729407662557665, "rom_pct": 19.428957543297315, "exit_price": 0.0033952347175, "r_multiple": 0.38445443423135905, "net_pnl_usd": 9.714460880742376 }, "usd_trail_floor": { "roa_pct": 2.963774161811809, "rom_pct": 26.500051566976495, "exit_price": 0.0033871758214287923, "r_multiple": 0.5243751400238408, "net_pnl_usd": 13.250001381255755 } }, "snapshot_kind": "entry_snapshot", "thesis_version": 2, "breakeven_price": 0.003417377818565975, "expected_net_bps": 22.943893114855676, "funding_projection": { "note": "estimasi = rate saat entry × notional × settlement dalam max_hold; rate berubah tiap interval, interval riil simbol diinferensi dari history (fallback config)", "direction": "bayar", "est_usd_paid": 0.029924944368365087, "horizon_hours": 6.0, "interval_hours": 8.00000013888889, "est_settlements": 0.7499999869791668, "interval_source": "history_inference", "funding_rate_at_entry": -2.66e-05 }, "utility_bps_per_day": 12.535786106682545 }, "funding_paid": 0.0, "last_mark_at": "2026-08-31T05:25:42.396830+00:00", "notional_usd": 1499.9972374884899, "trail_peak_r": 0.08317801043329454, "working_type": "MARK_PRICE", "ambiguous_bar": false, "current_price": 0.00347927, "price_move_pct": -1.7093412932654761, "risk_modifiers": [ "risk_gates_bypassed" ], "unrealized_pnl": -25.18251825151005, "equity_at_entry": 447.0651492944992, "exit_mark_price": 0.00347927, "usd_trail_armed": false, "barrier_evidence": { "series": "mark", "trigger": "stop_loss", "last_low": null, "mark_low": 0.00347927, "last_high": null, "mark_high": 0.00347927, "fill_price": 0.00347927, "bar_open_ms": 1788153900000, "both_touched": false }, "trail_r_distance": 5.3176854999999884e-05, "usd_peak_net_usd": null, "exit_shadow_state": { "ptp": { "at": null, "open": true, "r_mult": 0.8, "pnl_usd": null, "fraction": 0.75, "part_done": false, "realized_usd": 0.0 }, "tstop": { "at": "2026-08-31T05:02:59.999000+00:00", "open": false, "min_r": 0.5, "reason": "no_progress", "minutes": 120.0, "pnl_usd": -3.8574423354078764 }, "peak_r": 0.08317801043329454 }, "last_processed_ts": "2026-08-31T05:24:59.999000+00:00", "take_profit_price": 0.0032622, "r_multiple_realized": -1.0745885829481423, "utility_bps_per_day": 12.535786106682545, "liquidation_estimate": 0.0042888608291011265, "return_on_margin_pct": -54.305878917363, "usd_tp_threshold_usd": 20.0, "return_on_account_pct": -6.073586700877679, "usd_tp_trail_giveback": 0.3, "safe_leverage_suggested": 27 } ], "ambiguous_bars": 0, "initial_equity": 500.0, "unrealized_pnl": 8.21668638731987, "funding_received": 0.0 }, "version": 2, "strategy": "meta_strategy_router", "created_at": "2026-08-28T14:06:29.925945+00:00", "paper_only": true, "updated_at": 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utility=14.11 bps/day (news x0.92)", "symbol": "UNIUSDT", "vetoes": [], "strategy": "directional", "vol_scale": 1.0, "confidence": 0.7859382940817881, "data_as_of": "2026-08-31T07:45:00+00:00", "news_flags": [], "assessments": { "news": { "model": "kimi-k3", "usage": { "total_tokens": 1676, "prompt_tokens": 1439, "completion_tokens": 237, "prompt_tokens_details": { "cached_tokens": 256 }, "completion_tokens_details": { "reasoning_tokens": 41 } }, "reason": "All severe items concern the Cronos chain halt and Tectonic lending exploit ($75M), plus unrelated hacks (Cosmos bug, crypto-card neobank, AI cybersecurity). None involve Uniswap, the UNI token, Ethereum, Uniswap's major bridges, custodians, or its listing venues. UNI is an Ethereum-based DEX governance token; the only plausible transmission channel is generic market-wide risk sentiment, which is not a credible severe tail risk for a delta-neutral carry position on UNI. No hack, depeg, delisting, insolvency, or withdrawal freeze touching UNI.", "symbol": "UNIUSDT", "decision": "allow", "evidence": [ { "id": "rss-cfbc0d72ebaa13b5", "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2026/08/31/cronos-halts-blockchain-after-usd75-million-lending-exploit-hits-lending-app-tectonic", "title": "Cronos halts blockchain after $75 million lending exploit hits lending app Tectonic", "source": "coindesk", "tokens": [], "age_text": "2h", "age_hours": 2.0, "matched_by": "systemic_keyword", "published_at": "2026-08-31T04:57:13+00:00" }, { "id": "rss-77318b1bae8738d9", "url": "https://cointelegraph.com/news/cronos-network-halt-tectonic-exploit-75-million?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound", "title": "Cronos halts network after Tectonic exploit involving estimated $75M", "source": "cointelegraph", "tokens": [], "age_text": "4h", "age_hours": 4.0, "matched_by": "systemic_keyword", "published_at": "2026-08-31T03:25:48+00:00" }, { "id": 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"utility_bps_per_day": 198.15730643433906, "raw_utility_bps_per_day": 219.49192117228517 }, { "action": "long", "reason": "selected long utility=9.76 bps/day (news x0.95)", "symbol": "DASHUSDT", "vetoes": [], "strategy": "directional", "vol_scale": 1.0, "confidence": 0.769675857467491, "data_as_of": "2026-08-31T07:45:00+00:00", "news_flags": [], "assessments": { "news": { "model": "kimi-k3", "usage": { "total_tokens": 1694, "prompt_tokens": 1439, "completion_tokens": 255, "prompt_tokens_details": { "cached_tokens": 256 }, "completion_tokens_details": { "reasoning_tokens": 54 } }, "reason": "No evidence touches DASH. The dominant items concern a halt of the Cronos chain after a $75M Tectonic lending exploit and a Cosmos SDK-related multi-chain hack; DASH runs its own independent PoW chain with no dependency on Cronos, Tectonic, Crypto.com, or Cosmos infrastructure, so there is no transmission channel (no shared chain, bridge, custodian, foundation, or listing event) to DASHUSDT. The remaining items (AI cyber policy, a neobank card hack tagged SOL) are likewise unrelated. 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105 } }, "reason": "All evidence arrived via systemic_keyword routing and none touches UAI's transmission channels. The Cronos chain halt / Tectonic $75M exploit is a credible severe event for CRO/Cronos-ecosystem assets, but UAI is not a Cronos-chain asset and no headline links the exploit to UAI's chain, foundation, bridge, custodian, or listing venue. The remaining items (AI-lab cyber-defense commentary, a SOL-tagged neobank card hack, an ATOM-tagged Cosmos SDK bug review) are unrelated to UAI. No symbol-specific hack, depeg, delisting, or operational failure is evidenced; residual risk is only general market contagion sentiment.", "symbol": "UAIUSDT", "decision": "allow", "evidence": [ { "id": "rss-cfbc0d72ebaa13b5", "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2026/08/31/cronos-halts-blockchain-after-usd75-million-lending-exploit-hits-lending-app-tectonic", "title": "Cronos halts blockchain after $75 million lending exploit hits lending app Tectonic", "source": "coindesk", "tokens": [], "age_text": "2h", "age_hours": 2.0, "matched_by": "systemic_keyword", "published_at": "2026-08-31T04:57:13+00:00" }, { "id": "rss-77318b1bae8738d9", "url": "https://cointelegraph.com/news/cronos-network-halt-tectonic-exploit-75-million?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound", "title": "Cronos halts network after Tectonic exploit involving estimated $75M", "source": "cointelegraph", "tokens": [], "age_text": "4h", "age_hours": 4.0, "matched_by": "systemic_keyword", 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venues. The Cronos/Tectonic $75M exploit and chain halt are severe for CRO/Cronos ecosystem but have no identified transmission channel to LIT; Cosmos Labs, AI-cyber, and SOL neobank items are unrelated. 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The Cronos/Tectonic $75M exploit and Cronos chain halt affect the Crypto.com-linked Cronos chain only — no bridge, custodian, foundation, or listing link to Tensor/Solana. The Cosmos six-chain bug and the neobank crypto-card hack are unrelated to TNSR; the latter merely tags SOL but concerns a separate neobank token, not the Solana network itself. 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